Unit 4 AOS1 - Chapter 4: Managing Aggregate Demand Using Budgetary Policy Flashcards
(130 cards)
1
Q
What is unit 4 about?
A
The Australian governments 2 main categories of economic policy that are used to promote the achievement of key economic goals, ultimately improving Australia’s living standards.
- Aggregate demand policies (macroeconomic policies) - budgetary (fiscal) policy
- Various aggregate supply policies (include microeconomic reforms) - (monetary policy)
2
Q
Define budgetary policy.
A
This is an aggregate demand measure and related to changes in the anticipated levels and composition of GOVERNMENT REVENUE and EXPENSES for the year.
Budgetary policy is sometimes called ‘fiscal policy’.
3
Q
What are government/budget revenues (receipts)? (Part of budgetary policy)
A
They are the federal government’s incoming receipts of money that pay for budget outlays. Taxation, for example, is a major source of revenue for the government.
They come from direct taxes like those on personal income and company profits, and from indirect taxes such as excise or tariffs, along with non-tax revenue.
4
Q
What are government/budget expenses (outlays)? (Part of budgetary policy)
A
They are also known as outlays in the budget and are expenses involving, for example, the provision of goods and services for the community and welfare.
They arise from various types of government outlays (such as defence, health and education) involving both government consumption spending (G1) and government investment spending (G2), as well as transfer payments including welfare.
5
Q
What is budgetary policy regarded as?
A
Budgetary policy is regarded primarily as a key macroeconomic or aggregate demand management policy instrument because the levels of government revenue (receipts) and expenses (outlays) can have a powerful overall effect on:
. total expenditure (especially C, I and G)
. national production
. employment
. the general level of prices and final distribution of incomes in the economy.
6
Q
Who typically announces fiscal changes?
A
Typically, fiscal changes are announced by the Treasurer on budget night in early May, but adverse economic developments like the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008–09 could necessitate the introduction of a special mini-budget.
Whatever is proclaimed on these occasions, some of the key elements
in the budget require debate and the passage of bills through a proper parliamentary procedure in both the Lower House and Upper House. Sometimes, too, budget night pronouncements by the Treasurer are never actually enacted.
7
Q
Theoretically what is the budgetary policy?
A
Theoretically, budgetary policy is a very powerful instrument that can be used to manage the level of aggregate demand and pursue the government’s five economic goals including:
. low inflation (average annual inflation of 2–3%)
. strong and sustainable economic growth (growing GDP at around 3–3.5% or at levels that are economically and environmentally sustainable into the future)
. full employment (unemployment at around 4.5–5.0% of the labour force with no cyclical unemployment)
. external stability (paying our way or living within our means in external transactions without causing severe problems as a result of the CAD, NFD and changing Australian dollar)
. and equity in income distribution (everyone can access basic goods and services, enjoy reasonable living standards and avoid poverty).
Through success in these areas, the hope is that, ultimately, Australian living standards will rise faster than otherwise.
8
Q
What can the changing domestic and international economic, social and political circumstances that exist at budget time do?
A
Changing domestic and international economic, social and political circumstances that exist at budget time partially alter how important each of the government economic goals are for budgetary policy.
9
Q
What are a few examples of recent aims or budget priorities in the few years to 2013?
A
Know that fiscal consolidation is the main thing …..
10
Q
2016 examples.
A
,,,,
11
Q
Explain the following aim/budget priority in the few years to 2013: Promoting strong and sustainable economic growth and full employment
A
During and following the GFC starting in 2008–09, perhaps the main priority for the federal budget was to try to avoid recession and promote the goals of strong and sustainable economic growth and full employment.
This necessitated a more expansionary approach to budgetary policy (big budget deficits) designed to lift AD and economic activity, even though this meant increasing our overseas debt and CAD and making it harder to achieve the goal of external stability.
More recently in 2012–13–14, the need to protect jobs and promote economic growth has meant a delayed return to budget surplus.
12
Q
Explain the following aim/budget priority in the few years to 2013: Promoting an equitable distribution of income
A
A hallmark feature of Labor government budgets between 2008–09 and 2013 was that they attempted to promote the goal of an equitable income distribution, so that more people could access basic goods and services (such as essential food, housing, health- care and education) and enjoy reasonable living standards at a level deemed generally acceptable by society.
13
Q
Explain the following aim/budget priority in the few years to 2013: Promoting low inflation
A
Sometimes, as in the early part of 2008, Australia’s economic activity is too strong and the economy experiences near-boom conditions where there is increased inflation.
Here, widespread shortages leading to inflation required contractionary budget surpluses (where budget revenue is greater than budget expenses) to slow AD and stabilise the economy.
More recently during the economic recovery from the GFC in 2010–11–12, budgetary policy wanted to support growth and jobs without adding to inflationary pressures.
14
Q
Explain the following aim/budget priority in the few years to 2013: Promoting external stability
A
During 2007–08, for example, an important strategy of having a large federal budget surplus (where the value of budget receipts are greater than budget outlays) was to promote the goal of external stability by lifting the level of national savings and helping to close the large national savings–investment gap (where national savings are not sufficient to finance national investment) that is filled by our reliance on overseas borrowing or foreign debt.
Because of this gap, the lack of national savings has contrib- uted to our rising foreign debt and often large CAD.
More recently, during 2011–12–13 attempts to cut the size of budget deficits or return to surplus in the medium term could be seen as a desire to help promote the government’s financial sustainability and strengthen Australia’s external stability.
15
Q
What three main elements help to shape the distinctive nature of budgetary policy?
A
- budget revenues (both their level and composition)
- budget expenses (both their level and composition)
- the overall budget outcome (as it affects the policy’s stance or impact on AD).
16
Q
Explain the following element to help shape the distinctive nature of budgetary policy: budget revenues
A
Budget revenues are the federal government’s incoming receipts of money that pay for budget outlays. As such, they impact greatly on disposable incomes, AD, economic activity, inflation, the allocation of resources, external transactions, income distribution and living standards. Currently, revenues consist of the following types:
. Direct taxes
. Indirect taxes
. Non-tax revenue
17
Q
What are the main types of federal budget revenue?
A
The federal government derives revenue from a variety of sources including:
. Direct taxes
. Indirect taxes
. and Non-tax revenue
18
Q
Where do budget revenues come from?
A
. Direct taxes
. Indirect taxes and
. Non-tax revenue
19
Q
What is direct tax?
A
Direct tax is levied as a proportion of income received by individuals or companies.
20
Q
What is indirect tax?
A
Indirect tax is added onto the price of a good or service at the point of sale, making the item more expensive.
21
Q
What is non-tax revenue?
A
Non-tax revenue is revenue derived from sources other than taxation, such as from the profits made by government enterprises, interest on loans paid by other governments, or the sale of a government enterprise.
22
Q
What are the types of revenue from direct taxes?
A
. Personal income tax (43%) . Capital gain tax . Medicare levy . Company tax (20%) . Petroleum resource rent tax
There are others, but you don’t need to know more than this.
23
Q
Explain the following type of revenue from direct taxes: Personal income tax
A
Personal income tax is a direct tax paid by individuals who earn incomes in the form of wages, salaries, rent, interest and dividends.
For most people, income tax is deducted by firms from the pay packets of employees before they are paid (PAYG).
However, for self-employed individuals, a different system exists for estimating income and tax that must be paid.
In both cases, tax is levied (charged) at progressive rates, meaning their percentage changed with the level of income.
For instance, from 1 July 2012 the personal income tax rates range from 0 per cent on incomes below the tax-free threshold of $18 200 per year, up to the top marginal tax rate of 45 per cent on annual taxable incomes in excess of $180 000.
This source of receipts raises around 43 per cent of all federal government revenues. Since 1951, the top rate has been cut from 75 to 45 per cent (excluding the 1.5 per cent Medicare, levy that is to rise to 2 per cent from July 2014 to help cover the cost of healthcare including the disability insurance scheme).
24
Q
What is PAYG?
A
Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) tax is a direct progressive tax levied on incomes received by individuals at marginal rates of zero per cent up to 45 per cent.
25
Explain the following type of revenue from direct taxes: Capital gains tax
Capital gains tax (CGT) is levied on the real profits made from the sale of capital assets such as land and shares purchased after 1985.
Currently CGT applies to only 50 per cent of the capital gain, so the actual rate is only half the normal appropriate marginal income tax rate (with the Medicare levy added), with an effective top rate of around 23.25 per cent (down from over 48.5 per cent which applied prior to 1999–2000).
26
Explain the following type of revenue from direct taxes: Medicare Levy
Medicare levy is a direct tax designed to provide medical insurance in order to help cover the basic costs of family healthcare and the new DisabilityCare scheme.
This is normally levied at a rate of 1.5 per cent of personal taxable incomes but will rise to a standard rate of 2 per cent from July 2014.
27
Explain the following type of revenue from direct taxes: Company tax
Company tax is a flat or proportional tax levied directly on business profits.
In 2012–13, the tax rate was 30 per cent of company profits (down from 49 per cent in 1986 to 39 per cent in 1988, to 36 per cent in early 2000 and 34 per cent in 2001).
Company tax raises almost 20 per cent of all budget revenue.
28
Explain the following type of revenue from direct taxes: Petroleum resource rent tax
Petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) is levied at 40 per cent of the profits made from offshore petroleum operations.
29
What are the types of revenue from indirect taxes?
. Excise duty
. Custom duties or tariffs
. GST
. Non-tax revenue
30
Explain the following type of revenue from indirect taxes: Excise duty
Excise duty is an indirect tax imposed on selected, locally produced goods such as coal, petrol, LPG, beer, spirits, wine and tobacco.
It is a flat amount per physical unit (for example, kilogram, litre).
For example, the excise on unleaded petrol is about 30 per cent of the price of each litre sold, while that for brandy is over $50 per litre of alcohol.
The precise rates applicable are adjusted twice a year and, with the exception of petrol, are indexed or linked to changes in the CPI.
Overall, excise duty raises about 9 per cent of government revenue. The system of excise duty on alcohol was reviewed and there were steep rises in the excise on tobacco in early 2010 and August 2013.
31
Explain the following type of revenue from indirect taxes: Customs duty or tariffs
Customs duties or tariffs are an indirect tax levied on certain imported goods to raise revenue and protect local producers from foreign competition.
Since the early 1970s and especially between 1984 and 1996, the general tariff rate for manufactured goods was reduced dramatically from an average rate of nearly 40 per cent, to stabilise at a mere 5 per cent by 1996.
However, exceptions exist in 2013. Higher tariff rates apply to the textile, clothing and footwear industries (where the current rate is 10 per cent).
32
Explain the following type of revenue from indirect taxes: Goods and Services tax (GST)
Goods and services tax (GST) was introduced in July 2000, replacing the wholesale sales tax (WST rates 0–45 per cent).
It is a broad-based indirect tax levied at the rate of 10 per cent that is collected by the federal government on behalf of the states and territories.
Consumers pay the GST when they purchase goods and services.
The retailer adds GST to the price of items when they are sold, making the GST a regressive tax because the tax burden or rate (expressed as a percentage of their income level) is heavier for low-income earners rather than high-income earners.
Although the GST is levied on most things, for equity reasons there are some exemptions for necessities including basic unprocessed foods, residential rent, gifts to charities, secondhand goods, government charges for rates, telephone, water and car registration, export production, education and school fees, healthcare, health insurance, prescription medicines and public health goods, nursing home charges, child- care and financial services.
33
Explain the following type of revenue: Non-tax revenue
Non-tax revenue currently raises around 6 per cent of government revenues.
It comes from the government’s sale of goods and services, petroleum royalties, the repayment of loans by state and local governments, HECS loan repayments by students, GST administration costs, licence revenue, property rentals, and profits or dividends from the oper- ation of fully or part-owned government business enterprises such as Australia Post.
Income tax on individuals is easily the main source of receipts, followed by revenues from company tax.
34
What is progressive tax?
Progressive taxes are designed to redistribute income more evenly. The tax rate increases as personal income levels increase.
Eg. Personal income tax and capital gains tax
10k income = $0k tax
$180k income = $54k
35
What is regressive tax?
Regressive tax is a tax that tends to exaggerate income inequalities because law incomes are taxed at higher rates than high incomes.
Indirect taxes on necessities (such as excise on tobacco, alcohol and petrol or GST) are generally regarded as regressive.
$10k income = $1k tax (10%)
$100k income = $1k tax (1%)
36
What are the other important features of our tax system?
1. Tax mix
2. Tax base
3. Tax burden
4. Principles of taxation and tax reform
5. Tax reform
37
Explain the following feature of our tax system: Tax mix
The tax mix refers to the balance between direct and indirect taxes as sources of revenue. Around 94 per cent of all federal revenues are derived from taxation, of which around 68 per cent is from direct taxes on incomes.
Of the remainder, just over 25 per cent comes from indirect taxes with the 6 per cent balance from non-tax revenue.
38
Explain the following feature of our tax system: Tax base
The tax base refers to how broadly the particular tax is applied. For example, the old wholesale sales tax (WST) taxed only goods, whereas the GST that replaces it is much wider and applies to most goods and services.
39
Explain the following feature of our tax system: Tax burden
Tax burden relates to the rates of direct or indirect tax applied. In the case of progressive personal income tax, the average tax burden automatically tends to increase over time, because rising levels of incomes and inflation cause people to move into higher marginal tax brackets.
This is referred to as bracket creep and can be avoided only by regular and deliberate cuts in tax rates or changes in the tax brackets.
40
Explain the following feature of our tax system: Principles of taxation and tax reform
Three principles of good taxation should be used to guide government tax reform.
1. Simplicity
2. Fairness
3. Efficiency
41
Explain the following principle of good taxation: Simplicity
For each tax we should ask the question: is it easily understood by income earners and simple to administer, with minimal compliance costs, including paper work?
42
Explain the following principle of good taxation: Fairness
Equity has long been an accepted principle of taxation — people should be taxed according to their capacity to pay.
For instance, should indirect taxes be levied on necessities such as food, health or education? Should the marginal rates of personal tax be made less steeply progressive so that richer households pay a smaller proportion of their income in tax than previously? Were tax loopholes closed in the 1980s; for example, with the introduction of a capital gains tax and fringe benefits tax?
43
Explain the following principle of good taxation: Efficiency
An efficient tax has a fairly neutral impact on the decisions of both consumers and producers. This allows the market to work more effectively to allocate resources.
PIs it efficient for the government to interfere with resource allocation by taxing luxury cars at 33 per cent while cask wine is taxed at around 11 per cent and toothpicks at 10 per cent? Is a tax on income derived from savings and investment ultimately efficient when there is a shortage of domestic savings and a rising foreign debt?
Unfortunately, not all the tax reforms introduced by treasurers between 2000 and 2013 met these three criteria.
44
What is bracket creep?
Bracket creep occurs when recipients of rising income gradually move into higher income tax brackets, which automatically increases their tax burden.
45
Explain the following feature of our tax system: Tax reform
Tax reform is an ongoing necessity so there are incentives to work hard and invest, and to ensure that Australia is internationally competitive.
. The Henry Review
. Actual tax reforms
46
What are the main types of federal budget expenses or outlays?
```
. Social security and welfare outlays (35%)
. Health spending (16%)
. Defence (5%)
. Education spending (7%)
. Transport and communications (1%)
. Net payments to other governments
```
47
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Social security and welfare outlay
These are government means and assets-tested cash transfer payments to the neediest groups. The main aim is to redistribute final incomes more equitably than market or private incomes so that even the poor can better access basic goods and services, thereby helping to reduce poverty and improving general living standards.
Federal welfare outlays claim around 35 per cent of total budget expenses. In the next few years, this expense is expected to rise with the added cost of government compensation to be paid to welfare recipients to help offset the effects on prices of the carbon tax.
These benefits include those for aged and war veterans.
48
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Health spending
Health spending entails the provision of medical attention and incorporates consumption outlays on running expenses (such as drugs and staff salaries) and capital infrastructure (for example, hospital buildings) within the public health system.
In addition, health outlays cover the funding of medical subsidies paid for doctors’ services, the current maximum 30 per cent private health insurance rebate for lower income earners (with a 0 per cent rebate for higher income earners), the provision of free hospital services by state governments and some prescribed pharmaceuticals. This accounts for around 16 per cent of budget outlays.
49
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Defence
Defence involves budget outlays for the payment of staff and day-to-day running expenses for the armed services. Increases in finance are provided where necessary for our defence capacity, and peacekeeping activities, border protection and surveillance, and for the war on terrorism. This takes around 5 per cent of budget outlays.
50
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Education spending
Education spending represents more than 7 per cent of budget outlays and is designed largely to help provide public education through the payment of staff and the pro- vision of ordinary operating expenses.
This includes spending on universities, support of state and non-government schools, vocational education and training, and building programs.
51
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Transport communications
Transport and communications cover current and capital spending on the provision of government infrastructure in areas like road, shipping, aviation and rail services.
The roads of national importance or highways programs and the recent nation building stimulus packages involving improvements to ports, railways, roads and broadband are specific examples of these outlays representing more than 1 per cent of all expenses.
52
Explain the following type of federal budget expense/outlay: Net payments to other governments
Net payments to other governments are federal handouts to state and local govern- ments to enable them to provide community services including public education, health, housing and transport.
Traditionally these payments were necessary because the states had few other sources of revenue from which to fund their outlays.
53
What are the other features of budget expenses?
1. The nature of government expenses.
2. Aim of expertise.
3. Domestic versus overseas
54
Explain the following other feature of government expenses: the nature of government expenses
Another way to classify budget expenses is by their nature.
. Government current or consumption spending (G1) includes the payment of wages and salaries for government employees, as well as day-to-day operating expenses for departments such as defence, education and health.
. Government capital or investment spending (G2) involves outlays on building,
social and economic infrastructure and purchasing equipment.
. Government transfer payments paid to individuals mainly cover welfare benefits, as well as industry assistance. Transfer payments are not regarded as government spending (G1 or G2), because it is the recipient of transfer payments or benefits who actually spends the money.
55
What are transfer payments?
Transfer payments are usually government cash benefits paid to the neediest individuals.
They are usually provided on the basis of means (income) and assets (wealth) tests designed to exclude people who are relatively well off.
56
Explain the following other feature of government expenses: aims of expenses
Sometimes the government provides to the community collective goods and services (such as basic education, most roads and ABC television) free of direct charge.
At other times, services are sold at a reduced or subsidised price to make them more affordable (for example, public housing, higher education, health). Increasingly, how- ever, the user-pays principle has been applied.
This means that individuals and firms using government-provided services are charged a price sufficient for the government to cover costs or make a profit to help increase non-tax revenues. This trend towards corporatisation of some government businesses reflects a trend to reduce costs and slow rises in budget outlays.
57
Explain the following other feature of government expenses: domestic versus overseas expenses
As expected, the impact of budget outlays on both domestic and external stability will vary, depending on the proportion of outlays that are actually spent overseas.
For instance, the purchase of imported defence equipment or rises in foreign aid slow domestic activity and increase our current account deficit (CAD).
58
What are budget outcomes?
Budget outcome represents the difference between the value of budget revenues and the value of budget outlays. The budget outcome may be a balanced budget, deficit or surplus.
59
What is a balanced budget?
Balanced budgets occur when the value of revenue equals the value of expenses.
Receipts = outlays
60
What is a budget deficit?
where the value of receipts
61
What is a budget surplus?
where the value of receipts > the value of outlays.
62
Explain a balanced budget as an outcome.
A balanced budget is where the value of government revenues
extracted exactly equals the value of expenses or outlays pumped back into the economy.
In itself, a balanced budget is neither expansionary nor contractionary in its impacts on the level of AD and economic activity. It tends to have little effect on production, employment and inflation. It is, therefore, said to be a fairly neutral stance.
63
Explain a budget deficit as an outcome.
When the budget outcome is negative or in deficit, the value of government revenue is less than the value of government expenses.
At a simple level, budget deficits cause less money to be taken out of the economy through taxes than is poured back through government outlays.
In itself, a deficit means that the budget’s stance is expansionary in its effect on AD and economic activity. It tends to stimulate production, employment and possibly inflation. However, having said this, if the size of the deficit as a percentage of GDP is cut between one year and the next, this means that the budget stance is becoming less expansionary than previously.
The 2016-17 budget is considered slightly contractionary (still technically expansionary) because the deficit is now $37.1 billion whilst in the 2015-16 budget it was $39.9 billion.
64
What is a budget stance?
Budget stance refers to whether the budget is neutral, expansionary or contractionary in its impact on the level of AD and economic activity.
65
How are deficits usually financed?
Deficits are usually financed by government borrowing.
66
What are the three ways to finance a budget deficit?
. Overseas borrowing
. Borrowing from the RBA
. Borrowing from the Australian public or financial sector
67
Explain the following way to finance a budget deficit: Overseas borrowing.
This involves the Australian Government selling government bonds overseas. This is effectively a contract which confirms the Australian government will pay back the loan plus interest at a future date. However, such borrowing adds to our net foreign debt (NFD).
In the short term, it may also increase the demand for the Australian dollar because the funds need to be transferred into $AUD first (this method increases demand for the $AUD). This therefore causes a appreciation in the $AUD which in turn ⬇️ X = ⬇️ AD (which worsens existing problems).
It also increases interest repayments (primary income debits) and grows the size of the current account deficit (CAD).
68
Explain the following way to finance a budget deficit: Borrowing from the RBA.
The government may choose to borrow from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). There are two possibilities. The government could use up any savings balances it has with the RBA accumulated during periods of surplus budgets.
Alternatively, the government could sell bonds to the RBA. This is the same as issuing instructions to print more money. This latter option is regarded as a very expansionary way of financing the deficit, because it adds directly to the volume of money and spending in circulation. This is also considered highly inflationary, which negatively effects competitiveness and therefore also economic growth.
69
Explain the following way to finance a budget deficit: Borrowing from the Australian public or financial sector.
The government could borrow from the Australian public and financial sector by selling them government bonds or treasury notes.
This approach could cause upward pressure on domestic interest rates because the government is also competing against the private sector for access to limited savings (government increases interest rates to make their bonds and securities more attractive to buy in comparison to others).
In turn, higher interest rates may crowd out and depress private sector borrowing, investment spending and economic activity at a time when policy needs to boost economic activity.
The private sector is therefore "crowded out" of the loans market, which leads to investment (I) spending going down and therefore decreased aggregate demand.
70
What is crowding out?
Crowding out occurs in a situation where the government, for example, runs a deficit budget in a recession with the intention of stimulating spending to help promote recovery.
Unfortunately, if the deficit is financed by borrowing credit locally, upward pressure is put on domestic interest rates that will push out private sector borrowers and undermine the efforts of monetary policy in promoting a recovery.
71
Explain a budget surplus as an outcome.
A budget surplus occurs when the value of government revenues exceeds the value of government expenses, leading to a contractionary impact on aggregate demand.
In other words, it slows AD and economic activity, and tends to limit production, employment and inflation.
However, when comparing successive years:
. If the size of the surplus is reduced due to a less rapid rise in revenues as compared with expenses, the budget stance is becoming less contractionary than previously.
. If the size of the budget surplus increases on that for the previous year as a percentage of GDP the budget stance is becoming even more contractionary.
72
What is one of the benefits of a budget SURPLUS?
One of the benefits of a budget surplus is that by reduces the (PSBR) public sector borrowing requirement (money needed to fund budget deficit) because a surplus implies that there is no need to borrow. This therefore leads to more funds available with decreased interest rates for the private sector to borrow.
This is known as crowding in and means that businesses are encouraged to borrow funds. This therefore increases "I".
73
What are the three main things a government can do with its budget surplus?
. Repay debt
. Save with the RBA
. Add to investment balances in special savings funds
74
Explain the following thing a government can do with a budget surplus: repay debt
The government could use the surplus to repay its local or overseas debts.
In the case of domestic debt, this action would cause government savings balances at the RBA to be transferred into the savings accounts of the private sector.
With increased liquidity (liquidity in this sense means funds available for lending) the cost of credit (interest rates) may fall, partly offsetting the initial contractionary effects on the economy of the surplus budget (because it would encourage "I").
75
Explain the following thing a government can do with a budget surplus: save with the RBA
The government’s savings balances with the RBA could be built up as a fighting fund for a rainy day (perhaps for use during a future recession or another financial crisis) when there is a need to finance deficit budgets.
This option would tend to cause money to be transferred from private sector savings into government savings. This would tend to reduce the availability of credit and put upward pressure on domestic interest rates.
76
Explain the following thing a government can do with a budget surplus: add to investment balances in special savings funds
The surplus may be used to set up the seed capital (early stage finance) located in the government’s four recently created special savings funds:
(i) the Building Australia Fund
(ii) the Education Investment Fund
(iii) the Health and Hospitals Fund
(iv) the Future Fund.
In these cases, it is hoped that the value of savings will grow over time through wise investments.
77
Explain the need to have the right fiscal balance.
It is vital for the federal government to manage Australia’s finances carefully and maintain a sustainable budgetary position in the long term.
Having the right fiscal balance includes avoiding high levels of government debt caused by budget outlays consistently exceeding budget receipts.
A surplus would help to avoid an overall rise in public sector debt or borrowing, thereby making the budget’s position sustainable. However, a return to surplus requires a balanced and prudent pathway to be adopted. It cannot happen overnight, and may take some years so that economic growth and jobs do not suffer as a result of undue budget tightening.
78
What is fiscal balance?
Fiscal balance refers to a strong and sustainable financial position for the government’s budget where, over the medium term (such as the duration of the business cycle), the budget surpluses generated in booms are more than sufficient to pay for or cover the budget deficits in recessions without the need to borrow or commit future generations to heavy debt repayments.
79
What does the budgets outcome reflect?
The operation or impact of two types of stabilisers.
80
What are stabilisers in the budget?
They can be automatic or discretionary and are used to regulate the level of AD and reduce the severity of booms and recessions resulting from the normal operation of the business cycle.
81
What are automatic stabilisers (also called cyclical stabilisers)?
Automatic stabilisers are built into most budget tax receipts and some government expenses. They operate correctly in a countercyclical way to help stabilise AD, without the Treasurer deliberately changing their level or announcing new policies. This is because they are programmed to change as a result of the ups and downs in the level of economic activity.
82
What do automatic stabilisers include?
```
Automatic stabilisers include most types of tax receipts such as:
. revenues from PAYG tax
. company tax
. CGT (company gains tax?)
. GST (goods and services tax)
. and excise.
```
Automatic stabilisers also include expenses such as some welfare benefits (especially those paid to the unemployed).
83
How are automatic stabilisers used during periods of slowing economic activity and recession?
During and immediately following a cyclical slowdown in economic activity or in a recession, the level of:
. budget tax receipts from PAYG
. company taxes
. and indirect taxes (such as excise and the GST) automatically falls.
This is because weaker economic activity and rising unemployment cause a:
. drop in disposable incomes
. reduced company profits
. and lower sales of goods and services.
In addition, higher unemployment also means that budget outlays on welfare benefits for the unemployed and others automatically rise.
This combination of lower receipts and higher outlays automatically tends to result in an expansionary budget deficit that would help to lift AD and economic activity, and restore stability.
84
How are automatic stabilisers used during periods of rising economic activity and inflationary upswing?
During a cyclical upswing or recovery in the level of economic activity or a boom, the value of budget receipts automatically tends to increase and some budget expenses fall.
This is because increased spending and sales in an upturn:
. decrease unemployment
. raise incomes
. and grow profits.
```
Government revenues from:
. personal tax
. company tax
. capital gains tax
. and indirect taxes are boosted
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At the same time, welfare payments to the unemployed are reduced (because there are fewer unemployed people). In this case, the budget deficit is reduced and the outcome is automatically and gradually pushed towards a contractionary surplus.
85
What are discretionary stabilisers (also called structural stabilisers)?
Discretionary stabilisers in the budget are the deliberate changes in tax rates, the tax mix and direction and composition of budget outlays specifically announced by the Treasurer to steady economic activity in response to developments.
These measures are sometimes introduced when automatic stabilisers on their own are not sufficiently powerful to deal with prolonged and severe recessions or booms.
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What do discretionary stabilisers include?
The Treasurer could:
. alter existing tax rates on incomes (such as the changes to PAYG) or company profits
. introduce a brand new tax
. or abolish a tax.
Alternatively, the Treasurer could alter the basis and/or levels of government outlays on areas like:
. welfare (eg. when the baby bonus was abolished from 2014)
. education (as with the schools building program)
. health (such as the funding for the new national disability health insurance scheme)
. national infrastructure building programs (eg. the construction of the NBN)
. or defence.
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How are discretionary stabilisers used during periods of slowing economic activity and recession?
During periods of slowing economic activity the treasurer can announce cuts in tax rates or increase spending on border security or infrastructure. This will result in the size of the budget deficit increasing or the surplus decreasing.
However, this should stimulate economic activity because, for example, decrease tax rates will allow for more "C" and "I", hence increasing aggregate demand and economic activity.
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How are discretionary stabilisers used during periods of rising economic activity and inflationary upswing?
During periods of rising economic activity the treasurer can announce rises in tax rates or decrease spending on border security or infrastructure. This will result in the size of the budget deficit decreasing or the surplus increasing.
However, this should worsen economic activity because, for example, increased tax rates will result in less "C" and "I", hence decreasing aggregate demand and economic growth.
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What is the danger of discretionary uses in budget outlays an discretionary cuts in taxes?
The danger with discretionary rises in budget outlays is that they are politically difficult for the government to remove, so there is a risk that a permanent structural budget deficit will remain even when the extra spending is no longer needed.
Similarly, discretionary cuts in taxes designed to stimulate economic activity during a downturn are also politically difficult to reimpose when the crisis is over, again adding to the size of the structural budget deficit.
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What is the impact of unexpected events on the final budget outcome?
When estimating a particular budget outcome, the Treasurer makes assumptions about the likely level of receipts and expenses for the year ahead based on the best information and forecasts available at the time.
Sometimes these assumptions prove to be correct and the estimate is close to the actual budget outcome. However, at other times predictions are wildly incorrect because of unexpected events that impact on the levels of budget receipts and expenses.
Unexpected events include:
. weaker than expected economic growth and inflation, and rising unemployment
. lower commodity prices and terms of trade
. reduced business profits
. the impact of floods
. ongoing uncertainties and recession in parts of Europe and a slowdown in China.
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Understanding budget figure.
How budget outcomes are calculated and reported has changed. This involved using not just the traditional cash accounting system, but also the accrual approach.
One reason for this shift in reporting was the acceptance of the charter of budgetary honesty. This was designed to make the government more accountable and its actual fiscal position more transparent.
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Compare the cash approach to the accrual approach of understanding the budget outcome.
The cash approach reports the value of budget receipts and outlays only when the government actually received or pays out cash.
The accrual system shows expenses as they are incurred and revenues as they are earned.
In the late 1990 the cash accounting system approach wasn't the only way budget outcomes were calculated and reported as the accrual approach joined too.
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Nowadays what measures does the reporting system include?
1. The headline balance
2. The underlying balance
3. The fiscal balance
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What is the budget's headline balance?
Headline balance refers to the difference between cash outlays and cash revenues from all sources. Often this figure makes the budget outcome look more impressive than it actually is, because it doesn't remove the anticipated value of once-off events like asset sales and debt repayments received from other governments.
However, this figure is not very useful when trying to determine the impact of the budget on the level of government borrowing or national savings.
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What is budget's underlying balance?
The budget’s underlying balance uses the figures for the headline balance, but it then subtracts the value of volatile, once-off items such as those from asset sales, special loans to state governments or debt repayments by other governments.
The underlying budget outcome more clearly reflects the government’s real financial position, with less scope for political distortion. This is a very useful measure of the budget’s stance because it tells us how much cash is currently being drained out of, or pumped back into the economy.
The underlying cash balance can also be used to determine whether the government overall is running down or adding to national savings and debt.
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What is the fiscal outcome?
Like the underlying balance, the fiscal balance is a useful indicator of the government’s financial position. However, the difference between the two measures is that the fiscal balance is arrived at through the accrual approach.
The two indicators provide similar results but they are not identical. One reason for this is that the fiscal balance takes into account the impact of various financial transactions, even where these are deferred and there is no immediate transfer of cash.
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Summarise the goal of low inflation and list the policy initiative that effect/help achieve this goal?
The goal of low inflation is achieved when the general level of prices for consumer goods and services are increasing fairly slowly, within the current target range of 2-3% a year on average, over the duration of the economic cycle.
Company tax and infrastructure help to achieve this goal.
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What happens when there is a positive and negative fiscal balance?
When there is a positive fiscal balance (or surplus), the existence of government saving means there are sufficient funds available to finance government activities without adding to foreign borrowing or worsening the CAD.
However, a negative fiscal balance means there is a shortfall in savings that puts upward pressure on the CAD through increases in our overseas debt.
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What does the government aim to have over the duration of the business cycle?
Over the duration of a business cycle (that is, the medium term), the government aims to have fiscal balance by running surpluses during booms that are more than sufficient to pay for deficits that occur in recessions.
By adding to national savings, surplus budgets not only solve the problem of crowding out (where government borrowing to finance deficit budgets puts upward pressure on interest rates), but encourages crowding in (where private sector investors are enticed by lower domestic interest rates).
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Explain the effect that the Terms of Trade (TOT) can have on the budget outcome.
If there is a downturn in TOT = price of "X" decreasing relative to "M" = decreased price or what companies "X" = decreased profits.
This leads to decreased company taxes = lowered government revenue = lower surplus or increased deficit.
And vice versa.
(Think mining sector)
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What is the largest revenue item in the budget this year and the last few years?
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What is the largest expenditure item in the budget this year and the last few years?
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How does budgetary policy assist in achieving the government economic goals?
By smoothing the business cycle budgetary policy assists in achieving the 2 economic goals included in domestic economic stability (being sustainable economic growth, low inflation and full employment).
Budgetary policy can also be used to achieve externals ability through infrastructure which promotes "X" and contractionary budgetary policy reduces spending on "M".
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How do you evaluate the stance of the budget (to see whether a budget is likely to expand or contract aggregate demand)?
A comparison of budget outcomes between one period and the next is required.
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What is an expansionary budget?
An expansionary budgetary policy can be defined as an increase in outlays and/or decrease in receipts (revenues) that causes the size of the budget deficit to increase or the size of the budget surplus to decrease between one period and the next.
Such a policy seeks to expand the level of aggregate demand.
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What is a contractionary budget?
A contractionary budgetary policy can be defined as a decrease in outlays and/or an increase in receipts (revenues) that causes the size of a budget deficit to decrease or the size of a budget surplus to increase between one year and the next.
Such a policy seeks to contract the level of aggregate demand.
The fact that it subtracts from the rate of economic growth makes it contractionary.
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What is the 2016/17 budget considered to be?
This budget is considered to be slightly/mildly contractionary (because it has gone from $39.9 billion last budget to $37.1 billion this budget)
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How can the budget be used to achieve the economic goals
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Whether the budget is expansionary or contractionary in its impact on AD and the level economic activity, what does it depend on?
Its outcome or stance and the operation of both automatic stabilisers and discretionary stabiliser that affect receipts and outlays.
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Explain the goal of low inflation and include what two initiatives help/impact this goal.
The goal of low inflation is achieved when the general level of prices for consumer goods and services are increasing fairly slowly, within the current target range of 2-3% a year on average, over the duration of the economic cycle.
Company tax and infrastructure help achieve this goal.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of low inflation: company tax
Company tax is a flat or proportional tax levied directly on business profits.
. The 2016-17 budget is lowering the company tax rate from 30% to 27.5%. As a result there will be increased investment into Australia.
This will lead to higher wages, which results in increased buying power and spending.
. In turn, demand inflation will rise due to a brief shortage of goods and services, hence raising our inflation to a more desirable level.
(Since our inflation is currently sitting at 1.3%, our inflation rate is actually lower than the desired goal of 2-3%.)
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of low inflation: infrastructure
Infrastructure refers to the basic structures and facilities needed for the operation of a society/enterprise.
. The 2016-17 budget is spending billions on infrastructure, including $594 Million on a Melbourne to Brisbane Freight Rail Link. This has been done in order for Australia Rail Track Corporation to acquire land.
.The creation of this rail link will provide many jobs, hence increasing household incomes. As a result, households will have more purchasing power and spend more.
. This will also cause demand inflation, which will help our inflation rate reach the desirable level of 2-3%.
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Explain the goal of equity in income distribution and include what two initiatives help/impact this goal.
The Australian government’s goal of equity in income distribution is where everyone should have access to basic goods and services, be able to enjoy reasonable living standards at a level deemed generally acceptable to society, and avoid absolute poverty.
Superannuation changes and Youth Jobs PaTH help achieve this goal.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of equity in income distribution: Superannuation changes
Increase tax rate on super contributions for high income earners. Tax rate of 30% on contributions to super for those on incomes above 250K. (this was originally at 300K)
Super contributions for those below 250K pay 15%. This aims to push down those in the higher quintile of equity in income distribution in hopes to reduce the gap of income distribution.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of equity in income distribution: Youth Jobs PaTH
This is an intensive three-stage program that aims to boost young employability and individual skills. Through this policy the Government hopes to reduce the income gap between low-income and high income earners.
It also aims to create 120000 employment opportunities for young people within the next four years. By addressing the structural impediments such as lack of skills in young people, businesses will be more likely to hire young people as aggregate supply increases.
Reducing the unemployment rate and in turn, achieving the economic goal of full employment.
Already the initiative has reduced the youth unemployment rate down to 12% as of march 2016. This policy works to push up the lower quintile of income earns by improving their skills and employability.
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Explain the goal of full employment and include what two initiatives help/impact this goal.
The government’s goal of full employment means the lowest rate of unemployment that will not cause inflation to accelerate. Here there would be no cyclical unemployment due to weak AD or recession. However, around 4.5–5 per cent of the labour force would be naturally unemployed due mostly to structural causes and other changes in supply-side conditions.
Lowering tax rates for companies and youth employment package will help achieve this.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of full employment: lowering tax rates for companies
It is an example of a discretionary stabiliser. It should help to stimulate private sector investment and also aggregate demand by making after tax return on investments higher, as future profits are taxed at a lower rate. (higher profits) This should create more incentive for firms to expand their operations with spending on new plants ect.
This will act to raise AD and increase the rate of economic growth. As a result of higher economic growth there will be increased demand for labour. This demand for labour will lead to lower levels of cyclical unemployment. This will help to achieve the goal of full employment.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of full employment: $840 million youth employment package
This initiative lowers long term unemployment because they are given a secure job. This will increase our participation rate. This helps us to achieve the goal.
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Explain the goal of sustainable economic growth and include what two initiatives help/impact this goal.
The goal of strong and sustainable economic growth has two main dimensions:
• The rate of economic growth
needs to be economically strong and sustainable so it is ideal (neither too strong nor too weak) and will not compromise the achievement of other government goals;
• The rate of economic growth needs to be ecologically or environmentally sustainable and not reduce the material and non-material living standards of current and future generations.
Cuts to small business taxes and $50 billion dedicated to infrastructure help to achieve this goal.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of sustainable economic growth: cuts to small business taxes
Cuts of small business taxes from a rate of 28.5% to 27.5% in the next few years is designed to stimulate economic growth as lower costs for businesses encourages investments which increases our rate of economic growth by increases aggregate demand through the I section of the aggregate demand equation. This however may cause demand inflation.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of sustainable economic growth: 50 billion dedicated to infrastructure
50 billion dedicated to infrastructure over the next 10 years especially 6.7 billion dedicated to upgrades to the Bruce highway and 594 million dedicated to the Melbourne to Brisbane inland freight rail. These initiatives increase the G2 section of the aggregate demand equation which increases economic growth however the increase of supply efficiency will help to ensure the overall inflation rate remains low.
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Explain the goal of external stability and include what two initiatives help/impact this goal.
The goal of external stability is a desirable economic situation where Australia is living within its means and able to pay its way in its international financial transactions, without the burden of high overseas payments causing severe problems that could reduce our living standards. This may be indicated by a low CAD:GDP ratio (some say around three to four per cent), a sustainable NFD and the exchange rate for the Australian dollar remaining stable.
Infrastructure spending and balancing the budget help achieve this goal.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of external stability: infrastructure spending
Infrastructure spending: expands the productive capacity of the economy. In the long term, we will become better at working with within our own means and external economic issues will have less off an impact on Australia’s economy.
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Explain how the following initiative helps to achieve the goal of external stability: balancing the budget
Balancing the budget: the government is aiming to balance the budget overtime, whilst supporting the jobs they are doing their best to decrease the deficit from 37.1b to 6b in 2019-20.
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What are some possible weaknesses of budgetary measures?
. Political constraints can limit budget options
. Long time lags are a constraint for some discretionary stabilisers
. Lack of ability to alter some budget outlays
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Explain the following possible weakness of budgetary measures: political constraints can limit budget options
There are three important types of political constraints that restrict changes in budgetary policy: the limitations to federal government policy imposed by the allocation of powers under the Australian Constitution; the need to gain parliamentary approval for the budget in both the Lower and Upper Houses; and the government’s desire to maintain political popularity with voters (especially in election years).
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Explain the following possible weakness of budgetary measures: long time lags are a constraint for some discretionary stabilisers
Many discretionary stabilisers are not much use in correcting short-term cyclical instability because changes in some budget outlays can take several years to plan, start and complete. Their full impact on the level of AD and economic activity takes time.
Discretionary changes are often more suited to promoting medium- to long-term stability. Failure to recognise the time lag limitation could lead to discretionary measures becoming procyclical, rather than countercyclical.
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Explain the following possible weakness of budgetary measures: lack of ability to alter some budget outlays
Some budget receipts and outlays cannot suddenly be increased or decreased in response to changes in economic activity. For example, it would be hard for the Treasurer in a boom to actually cut the level of pensions or wages of public servants, or raise personal or company taxes — in theory it is possible, but in practice it is most unlikely. This political consideration restricts the ability of the budget to countercyclically regulate AD and economic activity.
Additionally, budget deficits created in recessions as a result of discretionary cuts in receipts and increases in outlays can sometimes be difficult to remove, creating semi-permanent structural deficits.
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What is an expansionary budget?
This is a budget where the government increased aggregate demand by a rise in the value of its outlays relative to its receipts. It will be especially expansionary if any deficit is financed by borrowing from the RBA and if there is a reduction of outlays on imports.
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What is a contractionary budget?
This is a budget where the government deliberately slows aggregate demand by a fall in the value of its proposed outlays relative to its receipts.
