US elections Flashcards
(118 cards)
1
Q
how many of the 19 people nominated as presidential candidates 1968-2016 had served in senate or been state governers
A
10 had served in the senate and 6 had been state governors
2
Q
who was the one bacherlor president
A
James Buchanan 1856
3
Q
how much money did Hillary Clinton raise in 2016
A
$700 million
4
Q
who are a few examples of third party/independent candidates which shows a candidate needs major party endorsement to become president?
A
Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan, Gary Johnson
5
Q
who was the first major Republican candidate to announce candidacy for 2016 presidential race and when did he announce this
A
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas - made his announcement on 23 March 2015 -
over 10 months before Iowa Caucus
6
Q
How many Republican declared candidates were there at the end of July 2015
A
17
7
Q
What are the extra constitutional requirements for president?
A
political experience, major party endorsement, personal characteristics, ability to raise large sums of money, effective organisation, oratorical skills and being telegenic, sound and relevant politics
8
Q
what is support for candidates demonstrated by in the invisible primary?
A
opinion polls
9
Q
how many televised debates between republican candidates were there between 6th August 2015-February 2016?
A
7
10
Q
what is an example of televised party debates being important
A
In 2011 televised debates Governor Perry couldn’t recall one of the three federal executive departments he would close down if elected president. Ended his bid 2 months later finishing 6th in New Hampshire Primary
11
Q
What did Trump do in the debates 2015-2016?
A
he boycotted the last of the 7 main debates
12
Q
how much did trump raise and how much of his own money did he donate (during invisible primary)?
A
raised $25.5 million and donated $18 million of his own money
13
Q
what figures indicate that fundraising is not indicator of electoral success?
A
Ben Carson raises $57.9 million and Jeb Bush raised $33.5 million but neither won a single primary
14
Q
how much did Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders raise in invisible primaries?
A
Hillary Clinton - $130 million, Bernie Sanders - $96 million
15
Q
what is one example of it not being important to be the front runner at the end of invisible primaries?
A
Democrat race 2004 Howard Dean was front runner of invisible primary then crashed in primaries
16
Q
who were the front runners in 2008 invisible primaries?
A
Hillary Clinton was 15 percentage points ahead of Obama and and Rudy Giuliani was 10 percentage points over McCain but Obama and McCain became party nominations
17
Q
who were the front runners in invisible primaries and ended up being nominations
A
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
18
Q
in how many cycles did the Republican candidate leading in polls in invisible primary become presidential nominee?
A
7/8
19
Q
in how many cycles did the Democrat candidate leading in polls in invisible primary become presidential nominee?
A
5/9
20
Q
what is super Tuesday?
A
a tuesday in february or early march when a number of states coincide their presidential primaries and caucuses to try to gain influence
21
Q
how many states held primaries before end of March in 2008
A
42
22
Q
what is a primary?
A
a state-based election to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency.
23
Q
What is a caucus?
A
a state-based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. they attract unrepresentative and low turnouts
24
Q
How many votes in the 2012 Wisconsin republican open primary said they were democrats and what was the result of this?
A
11% of votes said they were democrats. Mitt Romney won primary overall but among democrat votes Rick Santorum beat romney by 20 percentage points
25
what is a closed primary?
a primary in which only registered Democrats can vote in a democratic primary and visa versa
26
what is an open primary?
a primary in which any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary
27
which Primaries happen early?
Iowa and New Hampshire
28
when was the last time a democrat candidate whom nomination without first winning Iowa Caucus?
1992
29
How much of the primary vote did Obama win in 2012?
92%
30
in which years did incumbent presidents face significant opposition in the primaries?
1976, 1980, 1992
31
how many people participated in 2016 primaries
61 million
32
what demographics of people are more likely to vote in primaries and stats to support this?
better educated, higher income and older people (North Carolina Republican primary 2016 over half had a college degree, 1/3 earned over $100,000, 3/4 were over 45 and only 6% under 24) voters also more likely to more ideological
33
which type of primaries attract higher turnout?
open primaries, more competitive races and where the nomination hasn’t already been decided
34
strengths of nomination process?
increased participation, increased choice, open to outsiders who don’t have national reputation and a gruelling race
35
what has participation in primaries increased from 1968-2016
In 1968 11% took part vs in 2016 29% took part
36
how many candidates was there in 1968 and 2016
5 in 1968 and 22 in 2016
37
examples of those without national reputation who because of nomination process could become president
Obama and Carter
38
weaknesses of nomination process?
voter apathy, voters unrepresentative and ideological candidates do better, process too long, expensive, too dominated by media, can easily develop into personal battles, lack of peer review, super delegates
39
what is normally the turnout when only 1 party has genuine contest?
17%
40
what was the turnout in 2000 which no incumbents running
19%
41
who are candidates who did better in primaries because they are more ideological
Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders
42
how much did Sanders and Hillary Clinton raise by end of June 2016?
Hillary Clinton - $275 million, Bernie Sanders - $235 million
43
example of primaries developing into personal battles?
2000 republican primaries, McCain televised commercial accused Bush of not telling the truth likening him to president Clinton
44
what are two examples of super delegates playing a significant role?
in nominating Obama in 2008 as neither him nor Hillary Clinton got majority of delegates through primaries and caucuses, and in 2016 some super delegates cast votes for Clinton despite Sanders winning primary in that state
45
examples of selection of vice presidential candidates creating a balanced ticket
Obama/Biden and Biden/Harris
46
example of a vice president being chosen on potential in government?
Bush choosing Cheney who had a lot of experience in 2000
47
example of vice presidential candidate being chosen to create Party unity
Reagan and George H W Bush
48
What are the formal functions of national party conventions?
choosing the party’s presidential candidate, choosing the party’s vice presidential candidate, deciding the party platform
49
informal functions of national party conventions?
promoting party unity, enthusing the party faithful, enthusing the ordinary voters, post convention ‘bounce’
50
how does a candidate win the presidential nomination?
by receiving an absolute majority of the delegate votes
51
when was the last time the choice of a presidential candidate was in doubt at the opening of either party’s convention?
the republican convention 1976
52
what is a brokered convention?
a national party convention in which no candidate achieves sufficient delegates during the primaries and caucuses to have an absolute majority on the first ballot
53
how often did brokered conventions happen in 1892-1952 and 1956-2016
on 8 out of 16 elections between 1852 and 1952 and never between 1956 and 2016
54
when was the last time a running-mate was announced at a convention?
the Republican convention in 1988
55
what is the relevance of the party platform?
can see significant differences between party beliefs, such as on abortion and same-sex marriage however little reference is made to the platform during the campaign or administration of the winning candidate and a lot of it isn’t of much substance
56
what is an example of party unity not being successfully promoted at a national party convention?
Republican Convention 2016 - many leading Republicans such as George W. Bush and Mitt Romney stayed away. Ted Cruz ended telling people to ‘vote your conscience’ and Trump supporters booed him off stage
57
how did the Democrat Party promote party unity at their national party convention in 2016?
theme of ‘United Together’ and Sanders endorsed Hillary Clinton in his speech saying she will make an outstanding president
58
what is the average bounce for the challenging party after party conventions between 1980 and 2012?
just over 6 percentage points
59
what is the average bounce for the incumbent party after party conventions between 1980 and 2012?
6 percentage points
60
what is an example of doing well in party conventions not being too important
Hillary Clinton won the battle of conventions but lost the election
61
reasons for national party conventions still being important
the only time national parties meet together, opportunity to promote unity, opportunity to enthuse party members and activists, introduce presidential and vice presidential candidates, delivery of presidential candidates acceptance speech, can lead to significance bounce in the polls, many voters don’t tune in to the campaign until the conventions start, a significant number of voters make their decision about who to support during the conventions
62
reasons against the national party conventions still being important
presidential candidates and vice presidential candidates now decided during the primaries not at the convention, party platform mostly agreed before, rather than during, the convention, televised coverage much reduced, more balloons and hoopla than serious policies
63
how many electoral college votes do the most populated vs least populated states have now and in 1788
in 1788 the smallest had 3 electoral college votes and the largest (Virginia) had 12. In 2016, California had 55 electoral college votes but states like Wyoming and Alaska had just 3
64
in how many elections between 1864 and 2020 has the winner gained more than 50% of the vote (us)
27 out of 40
65
what are the 4 most recent of the 13 elections where the winner has not gained over 50% of the vote (us)
1992, 1996, 2000, 2016
66
in which years did the electoral college fail to come up with a winner?
1800 and 1824
67
how many people do California and Wyoming receive 1 electoral college vote for?
California receives 1 electoral college vote for every 713,000 people whereas wyoming receives 1 electoral college vote for every 195,000 people
68
why is the result distorted by the electoral college?
winner-takes-all system
69
what are two recent examples of the result heavily being distorted by the electoral college?
In 2000 Al Gore won 48.4% of the popular vote to George W. Bush’s 48% but Bush won in the electoral college by 271 votes to 266 votes. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won almost 3 million more votes than Trump but Trump comfortably won in the electoral college by over 70 votes
70
how much of the popular vote did Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 and Ralph Nader in 2000 win and how many electoral college votes did they win?
Ross Perot 1992 - 18.9%
Ross Perot 1996 - 8.5%
Ralph Nader - over 3 million votes
none won any electoral college votes
71
what are rogue electors and in how many of the elections between 1968 and 2016 has this occurred?
a rogue elector is an elector in the electoral college who casts their ballot for a candidate other than the one who won the popular vote in their state. has occurred in 7/13 presidential elections 1968-2016
72
how many rogue electors were there in 2016?
seven
73
what are possible reforms of the electoral college?
direct election, congressional district system or proportional system
74
what did the Federal Campaign Act of 1974 do and what was it a result of?
limited contributions that individuals, unions and corporations could give, hoping thereby to reduce candidates reliance on a few, very wealthy donors and equalise the amount of money spent by major parties. Direct result of the watergate scandal
75
what happens in 1976, Buckley vs Valeo?
the Supreme Court ruled that limitations on what individuals or political action committees could spend either supporting or opposing a candidate infringed First Amendment rights and were therefore unconstitutional
76
what is soft money?
money donated to political parties instead of candidates to avoid campaign finance limitations. Parties are allowed to spend the money on certain campaigning activities
77
what are matching funds and when were they used?
between 1976 and 2008, presidential campaigns were funded largely through what were known as matching funds 1 federal money administered by the newly formed Federal Election Committee and given to presidential candidates who met certain criteria and agreed to certain limitations
78
how much did the FEC pay out in matching funds in 1976 and 2000
$72 million in 1976 and nearly $240 million by 2000.
79
why and when did matching funds stop being used as much?
In 2008, Obama opted out of matching funds, letting him free of limitations and allowing him to outspend opponent McCain who took $84 million in matching funds. Crucial to Obama’s win. Neither candidate took matching funds in 2012 and in 2014 Obama signed legislation to end public financing of the parties national conventions, so total payout of matching funds inn2016 just over $1 million, being taken only by 1 democrat candidate Martin O’Malley and Green candidate Jill Stein.
80
what did the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act 2002 do?
national committees were banned from raising or spending soft money, labour unions and corporations were forbidden from directly funding issue advertisements, contributions from foreign nationals were banned ect.
81
what are PACs
a political committee that raises limited amounts of money and spends these contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates
82
what are super PACs?
a political committee that makes independent expenditures, but does not make contributions to candidates
83
what election did super PACs play a significant role in and what do people like and not like about them?
2012. supporters see them as a positive consequence of deregulation that provides an important outlet for political speech but opponents argue they are another outlet for unlimited money in electoral politics that are merely functional extensions of one or more candidates
84
which three super PACs dominated the scene during the 2016 presidential election?
Priorities USA action raised over $192 million on behalf of Hillary Clinton (over 90% of all outside group money raised for her campaign) and Rebuilding America Now ($22.6 million) and Out Principles PAC ($19 million) raises money in support of Trump.
85
where does the money go in campaigns?
- organisation (staff, field offices - clinton had 489 to Trumps 178)
- campaigning (Trump campaigned in states looking like they would vote for clinton at the last minute and won in them by small margins such as winning by just over 10000 votes in michigan out of nearly 4 1/2 million)
- media (Clinton spent more throughout, both spent lots near end, Trump on TV ads targeted at states Clinton was expecting to win)
86
In what election were TV debates important and why?
Carter vs Reagan 1980, Reagan closed with a good statement asking voters if they were better off than they were four years ago. Support for Carter fell badly after the debate and he only won 49 electoral college votes
87
in what election were TV debates not important?
2012 72% thought Romney won the debate and only 20% thought Obama won and became leading in both the Gallup seven-day tracking poll and the poll-of-polls published by the Real Clear Politics Website, the only time Romney was leading in both. However Obama got a comfortable victory on election
88
what are the important rules of presidential debate?
- style is often more important than substance (Gore appeared overly made up in 2000 debate and was ridiculed)
- verbal gaffes can be costly (when in 1976 President Ford mistakenly claimed Poland was not under the control of the soviet union it was an expensive error)
- good sound bites are helpful (when debating senator bob dole, Clinton was called whether he thought Dole was too old and said “its the age of his ideas that i question”
- debates are potentially more difficult for incumbents than challengers (eg Obama in 2012)
89
what is the october surprise and an example of it?
the october surprise is an event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate, leaving that candidate with little or no time to recover before election day. eg on 28 October 2016, just 11 days before election day, FBI director Comey sent a letter to certain members of congress stating that he was reopening his investigation into Hillary Clinton’s state department emails
90
how many voters voted early in 2016 and what was turnout in 2016?
47 million voters voted early
| turnout 54%
91
which modern presidents have been defeated for re election?
gerald ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George H.W. Bush (1992)
92
how many of the last 12 elections have featured an incumbent president seeking reelection and how many of these were successful?
9 of the last 12 and of these 9 five have been successful
93
what is the locality rule?
a state law that requires members of the house of representatives to be resident in the congressional district they represent
94
examples of swing states
Ohio, Florida and Virginia
95
how many incumbent senators and members of the House were defeated between 1982 and 2016?
8 incumbent senators and 72 house members
96
what are the trends in congressional elections?
presidents party tends to lose, incumbency, coat tails effect, split ticket voting, fewer competitive elections
97
evidence of the presidents party tending to lose in congressional elections
since 1962 at midterms the presidents party has lost an average of 23 seats, trump lost 41 seats in the house and gained in the senate in 2018, presidents with lower approval rates tend to get hit hard at mid-terms
98
evidence of incumbency being an important factor at congressional elections
house re-election rates are high, in 2000 was 97.8% and 2010 was the lowest at 85%
99
evidence of the coat tails effect in congressional elections
- In 1980 Reagan helped his party gain 33 seats in the house and 12 seats in the senate and 9 incumbent Democrat senators were defeated
- In 2016 there was some evidence that Donald Trumps stronger than expected showing in some states helped some republican senators gain reelection
- in decline in recent years, showing people may think more about candidates lower down on ballot
100
why is incumbency an important factor in congress elections?
greater name recognition, more access to fund through sponsors and donors
101
why does the presidents party tend to lose at congressional elections and what are the consequences?
the presidents performance and legislative decisions, turnout higher for opposition as presidents party feels complacent, can make president not effective lawmaker
102
evidence for split ticket voting in congressional elections
- in 2004 four states - Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and North Dakota - votes for Republican George W Bush in presidential race but elected a democrat in the senate
- split ticket voting becoming less popular as America becomes more polarised and party political
- 4% (pew research) were found planning on voting differently for the president and senate
103
how does having few competitive elections effect congressional elections?
- Makes it harder to change party control in congress
- Gerrymandering huge issue causing less competitive districts
- may increase voter disenfrachisement
- In 2016 only 1/14 were competitive
- In 2016 democrats needed to make an overall of just 30 seats to win back control of the house but of all the seats being contest only 43 were competitive making it harder and they only gained 6 seats
104
what is a proposition or initiative?
an electoral device by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws - and in some states, proposed constitutional amendments - on the state ballot
105
examples of propositions
- marijuana legalisation
approved: California , Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada
defeated: arizona
- minimum wage increase
approved: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Washington,
106
what is a recall election?
an electoral device by which voters in a state can remove an elected official from office before their term has expired
107
example of a recall election
Republican governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker beat his Democrat Opponent Milwaukee mayor Tom Barret by 53% to 46% in 2012. this recall election triggered by opposition to government walkers implementation of changes to state employee pension scheme and the limiting of the collective bargaining rights of trade unions within the state
108
how did black people vote in the 2020 presidential election?
92% for Biden
| 8% for Trump
109
how did white suburban voters vote in 2020?
Trump narrowly won White suburban voters by 4 points in 2020 (51%-47%)
110
what percentage of rural votes did Trump win in 2020?
65%
111
who did white non-college voters vote for in the 2020 presidential election?
65% Trump
| 33% Biden
112
how did age affect voting in the 2020 election?
voters under 30 favoured Biden by 24 percentage points
voters 30-49 favoured Biden by 12 percentage points
voters over 75 favoured Trump by 16 percentage points
113
What percentage of Americans support direct election of Presidents?
in a national poll commissioned by the Washington Post in 2007, 72% supported a popular vote election with only 23% opposed.
114
How did education level affect how people voted in the 2020 election, according to research by Pew Research Center?
Biden had a lead of 14 percentage points amongst college graduates and 35 points amongst people with a postgraduate level of education whereas trump had a lead of 14 percentage points amongst people with a high school level of education or less.
115
How did gender affect how people voted in the 2020 election, according to research by Pew Research Center?
Amongst women, Biden had a lead of 11 percentage points and amongst men Trump had a lead of 2 percentage points.
116
What shows that race had a bigger impact than education over how people voted in the 2020 presidential election?
Even though overall Trump had a lead of 14 percentage points amongst people with a high school or less level of education, amongst black voters with this level of education, Biden had an 84-percentage point lead, the exact same as black voters with a college education or higher.
117
What was the gender gap in how people voted in the 2016 presidential election?
In 2016, Trump had an 11-percentage point lead amongst men and Clinton had a 15-percentage point amongst women, so the gender gap has significantly closed in 2020.
118
How did geographic region affect how people voted in the 2020 presidential election?
26% of votes Biden received were from rural voters, whereas 36% of votes received by Trump were from rural voters. 22% of votes for Biden were from voters in urban areas whereas only 15% of votes for Trump were from those in urban areas.
52% of Bidens vote share was from voters in suburban areas are 48% of Trumps vote share was from suburban voters.
(Pew Research center)
