US Elections and Referendums Flashcards
(35 cards)
- Explain and analyse three types of election that occur in the USA. p406 and your notes. (for all questions)
P – Presidential elections
E – Americans, using the Electoral College, process select the occupant of the White House every 4 years.
P - Congressional elections
E - Directly elect members of both the House and the Senate. Take place every 2 years when the whole of the House and 1/3rd of the Senate is up for election
P – Primaries
E – Formal secret ballot elections that select delegates for parties’ presidential nomination conventions. Also used to choose party candidates for state and congressional elections.
- Explain and analyse three strengths of the US electoral system
P - A huge number of elections and elected offices offer many opportunities for political participation.
A - US electors often suffer from ‘voter fatigue’. So many elections can lead to apathy and a degree of cynicism regarding the political process.
P - The electoral system reflects the federal nature of US government with individual states having much discretion over aspects of elections.
E – Maine, since 2018 has used a ranked-choice voting system, broadly similar to single transferable vote (STV), for congressional and local elections. However, most states used a majoritarian system where the candidate with the largest number of votes wins
P - An almost entirely majoritarian electoral system usually ensures clear results and single-party control of legislative chambers.
E - – In the last 19/26 elections the winner has received an absolute majority of the popular vote.
- Explain and analyse three weaknesses of the US electoral system
P – Too many elections
E - US electors often suffer from ‘voter fatigue’. So many elections can lead to apathy and a degree of cynicism regarding the political process.
P - The electoral system used tends to favour a two-party dominant system, with little scope for third parties and true independents.
E - The last third party presidential candidate to win an electoral vote was George Wallace of the American Independent Party, who won five states in 1968.
P - There is electoral distortion via the Electoral College.
E - Can considerably exaggerate the power of smaller states.
E – California has one EVC per 712,000 people whilst for Wyoming it is per 195,000. In 2016/2020, Trump won the election but lost the popular election.
P – Divided government can lead to gridlock.
- Explain and analyse three key characteristics of American election campaigns. p410-414
P – Individuality
E - If you want to run for any elected office in the USA you do not apply to a party and get directly selected. Instead, the onus is on the individual to create a campaign team and get themselves on the ballot. Trump had never held elected office before. Initially, he was strongly opposed to much of the Republican political establishment. Yet in the end he triumphed. Voters put their trust in him as an individual and not necessarily as a Republican
P – Swing states
E – Most campaigning in US national elections takes place in a relatively small number of states that are not definitely Republican or Democrat and could “swing”. Clinton spent $93 million in Florida but only $6 million on the safe seat of Colorado. 2/3 of campaign in just 6 states.
P – Money
E – Plays a huge role in elections. In 2024, the total price spent on political advertising was $11 billion.
A – Doesn’t always mean the biggest spender will win. The Clinton Campaign heavily outspent the Trump campaign in 2016.
- Explain and analyse three advantages of the primary/caucus system
P – Boosts opportunities for political participations
E – It allows ordinary voters choose their party’s candidate. It is also more democratic to allow the people to choose the candidate rather than the political establishment
A – However, turnout is often low and consists largely of a party’s core supporters. About 80% of eligible voters do not participate in midterm primary elections
P – “Road test” for the candidates and engages political participation
E – See their qualities in action. Eg. Media presence, fundraising and policy awareness. Allow them to evaluate the relative merits and weaknesses of candidates and promote awareness of key issues.
P – Allows political outsiders to run for office
E – Trump - build up momentum and name recognition over time.
P – Reflects the US’s federalists framework
E - The huge variety of arrangements for primaries and caucuses is a good example of federalism in practice, and how the Constitution delegates the running of elections to individual states. Some states, including Oregon and New York, only allow voters pre registered to a particular party to participate in that party’s primary. These are known as closed primaries. Other states, such as Georgia, allow all registered voters to vote in any party’s primary, but they can only vote in one party’s primary. These are termed open primaries. Finally, some states operate a semi open/closed system where voters pre registered with a party can only vote in that party’s party, but independent, non-affiliated voters can choose on polling day which party primary to vote in. Further, the staggered length of primary campaigns enables a wide range of states to influence the outcome, especially as larger states such as New York sometimes tend to vote later.
Explain and analyse three disadvantages of the primary/caucus system
P – Low voter turnout and support for the system
E - Turnout is often low and consists largely of a party’s core supporters. This means that frequently candidates have to veer to the right (Republicans) or the left (Democrats) to attract enough votes from their more ideologically hardened supporters. About 80% of eligible voters do not participate in midterm primary elections. In a March 2016 Pew Research Center poll, just 35% of voters said primaries are a good way of selecting the best-qualified nominees.
P – Exacerbates divisions within parties
E – Debates are often personal and heated. The 2016 Republican primaries saw Trump attach unflattering labels to his rivals, including ‘Lyin’ Ted’ (Ted Cruz) or ‘Cry Baby Rubio’ (Marco Rubio). Watching primary debates, one could be forgiven for not realising candidates belonged to the same party
P - Fellow political professionals are better placed to understand candidates’ true qualities
E- Specifically, they will have a better understanding of those required for government as opposed to campaigning. The public is bombarded by political ads and campaign slogans.
- Explain and analyse three features of National Nominating Conventions
P – Choosing the presidential candidate
E – Consists of a recall in which each states’ delegate announces which candidate they wish to vote for. To win, a candidate must win an absolute majority of votes.
A – The number of “committed delegates” is known due to the primaries, the result is already a forgone conclusion and is more of a confirmation.
P – Opportunity to promote party unity
E - It is a chance to unite a divided party as former rivals line up to endorse and congratulate the eventual winner. Eg. Sanders finished his speech with the endorsement – “Hillary Clinton will make an outstanding president and I am proud to stand with her here today” The atmosphere is largely that of a rally as opposed to a forum for serious political debate.
P - It gives momentum to the candidate’s campaign via publicity and a chance to explain and outline their main policy themes.
E - Most conventions are followed by a temporary boost in poll ratings.
A - However, this was not the case in 2020, as neither candidate received a post-convention ‘ bounce’.
- Explain and analyse three features of the electoral college voting system
When you vote for a Presidential candidate, you aren’t actually voting for President. You are telling your State which candidate you want your State to vote for at the meeting of the electors.
P - The number of electors per state is equivalent to the overall size of their congressional delegation.
E- It will always be a minimum of three, as every state has two senators and at least one House representative. California has the most with 55, and Wyoming, Alaska and more have the minimum of 3.
A - California has one EVC per 712,000 people whilst for Wyoming it is per 195,000
P - It can be the case that the winner of the national popular vote loses in the Electoral College.
E - Having not happened since 1888, more recently it has occurred twice: 2000 and 2016. On all three occasions, Republican candidates emerged victorious. In 2016, Trump won 46% popular vote but 306 electoral votes. Clinton got 2.5 million more votes than Trump.
P – “Faithless electors”
E – Electors are pledged to vote for specific candidates but can choose to disregard this and vote for another candidate instead. Record 7 faithless electors in 2016 but they have never affected the outcome of an election so ultimately amount to a protest vote.
A – In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states may pass laws to prevent faithless electors.
P – 48/50 States use FPTP
- Explain and analyse three strengths of the Electoral College system used to elect US Presidents
P – Very rare for the winner of the popular vote to lose the electoral college
E – Only 5 times has this occurred since it’s creation by the Founding Fathers. Though it has happened more recently in 2000 and 2016, the 2020 and 2024 elections saw a return to the strong results traditionally produced.
P – Reflects the federal nature of the USA by protecting the rights of smaller states
E - The number of electors per state is equivalent to the overall size of their congressional delegation. It will always be a minimum of three, as every state has two senators and at least one House representative
A – Overrepresents - California has one EVC per 712,000 people whilst for Wyoming it is per 195,000
P – Ensures candidates campaign in a range of states
E - A nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus instead just on large urban areas.
A - It encourages candidates to focus all their campaigning on a small number of swing states such as Florida and Ohio.
P – Produces clear winners
E – In 2024, Trump got 312 Votes and Kamala got 226. In 2020 Biden got 306 and Trump 232. If a different system had been used such as the Maine/Nebraska system in 2020, ironically it would have reduced Biden’s winning margin to a much narrower 277-261 ECVs, and produced a more disproportionate result.
- Explain and analyse three weaknesses of the Electoral College system used to elect US Presidents. p420-424
P – Winners of the popular vote can fail to be elected president, and margins of victory can also be exaggerated.
E - In 2016, Trump won 46% popular vote but 306 electoral votes. Clinton got 2.5 million more votes than Trump. In 1984, Raegan won 97% EVCs with 59% of the popular vote.
P - Smaller states are overrepresented
E - California has one EVC per 712,000 people whilst for Wyoming it is per 195,000
P – Encourages candidates to focus their campaigns in swing states.
E - Clinton spent $93 million in Florida but only $6 million on the safe seat of Colorado. 2/3 of campaign in just 6 states.
- Explain and analyse three key factors that affect the outcome of American elections. P424-428.
P - Incumbency
E - Being an existing elected representative up for re-election helps one’s chances considerably. In the 2018 midterms, of those Senate and House incumbents who sought re-election 90.5% were victorious. This is because they are more likely to have a higher level of name recognition, they can boast of past achievements and ‘bringing home the bacon’ and lastly, many serve on relevant congressional committees that influence policies particularly relevant to their region.
P – Media
E - The majority of campaign ads are ‘attack ads’, portraying rivals as untrustworthy, corrupt, dangerous or the prisoner of special interest groups. The first, and most chaotic, Biden–Trump debate of the 2020 campaign saw 73 million viewers tune in, making it the third most viewed televised debate.
P - The focus on personality.
E -Most campaign ads and publicity material barely if ever mention a candidate’s party affiliation. Instead the emphasis is on a candidate’s own qualities, experience and policies. A party label arguably acts as the wrapper rather than dictating the ingredients for a candidate’s campaign — ‘Hope and Change’ was an Obama not a Democrat slogan in 2008, and the same with ‘Make America Great Again’ for Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024.
- Explain and analyse three ways in which incumbents are advantaged in US elections. p424-425
P - They are more likely to have a higher level of name recognition
E - In the 2018 midterms, of those Senate and House incumbents who sought re-election 90.5% were victorious.
P - They can boast of past achievements, of federal funding and jobs secured for their state or district, or ‘bringing home the bacon’ as it is often termed.
E - Many serve on relevant congressional committees that influence policies particularly relevant to their region. From 2015-20 the Chair of the Senate Agricultural Committee was Pat Roberts, the Senator for the agricultural state of Kansas
P - They benefit from an established campaign organisation and donor base.
E - Many incumbents build up considerable campaign ‘war chests’, partly to dissuade would-be challengers from either within (via primaries) or outside their party
- Explain and analyse three ways in which the media can impact on U.S. elections. p426
P – Political ads
E - Those under the direct control of the candidate are important for projecting a desired image and, perhaps just as importantly, attacking the integrity and record of opponents. For instance, in 2012, Obama’s campaign released a 30-second ad titled ‘Remember’. It began by lauding Obama’s record in raising US oil production while also promoting renewable energy and closing tax loopholes for oil companies. It then went on to attack his opponent, Mitt Romney, for being ‘in the pocket’ of the big, wealthy oil companies.
P – TV debates
E - Nixon refused to have his face made up, unlike his opponent John F. Kennedy. The result was that on television, Nixon came across as pale, pasty and sweaty in contrast to the tanned and healthy-looking Kennedy. Those watching the debate on TV thought Kennedy had won, while those listening to the same debate on the radio favoured Nixon, showing the power of public image. Biden–Trump debate of the 2020 campaign saw 73 million viewers tune in, making it the third most viewed televised debate.
P - In recent years we have seen growing partisanship in the mainstream media.
E - News outlets such as Fox (Republican) and MSNBC (Democrat) tend to reflect one side of the political spectrum, and even news reports feature a partisan dimension. In 2016, right-wing outlets leapt on the news surrounding Hillary Clinton’s email servers, while those of a more liberal disposition dwelt on Trump’s verbal indiscretions.
- Explain and analyse three factors that can influence voting behaviour in the U.S. p428-429
P – Race
E – The Democrats have been seen as the defender of civil rights and thus attract the majority of votes from ethnic minorities. This is because of their stance of equality and liberal reforms to the immigration system. In 2024, Harris received 85% of the black vote. Trump received 58% of the white vote.
P – Religion
E – Campaigns more likely to be overtly religious and talk about their faith and its impact on their policies. White evangelical Christians overwhelming support the Republican party – 80% voted for Trump in 2024. A growing group of those with no religion are voting Democrats.
P – Level of education
E –The more well educated you are, the more likely you are to vote Democrat. 57% with a college degree supported Harris.
- Explain and analyse three reasons why the 1932 presidential election is considered to be a realigning election. p430
P – For most of the previous 30 years, the Republican party had been the dominant party
E - They had won three presidential elections in a row, including a virtual clean sweep outside the ‘Solid South’ in 1928. This was completely ‘flipped’ in the presidential election of 1932, winning 472 EVCs from 87.
P - He also built up a broad coalition of voters, termed the ‘New Deal coalition’.
E - This combined conservative southern Protestants (often known as ‘Dixiecrats’), Catholics, the urban African-American population, labour union members, liberals and radicals. The broad grouping enabled the Democrats to dominate US politics until well into the 1960s. Aside from Dwight D. Eisenhower (1952–60), every US president between 1932 and 1968 was a Democrat
P - When the 1929 Wall Street Crash hit the USA, it took the Republicans and their ‘laissez-faire’ economics with them.
E - Hoover failed adequately to address the crisis effectively or dynamically, a case of ‘too little too late’. Meanwhile, the Democrats nominated New York governor Roosevelt mobilised his state government much more effectively to fight the impact of the Depression. Hoover and the Republicans had gained much popularity during the boom years of the 1920s by minimising government involvement and regulation of the business and banking sectors. However, there was much reckless lending, and an artificial inflation of stock values.
- Explain and analyse three reasons why the 1968 presidential election is considered to be a realigning election. (see your notes) – More detail
P – Marked the end of FDRs New Deal
E – Lost all support in the West and South. Breakdown of the ideological consensus between the differing groups.
P – Marked success of Republican Southern strategy on a major scale
E – Appealed to white conservatives in the South who were not happy with the increase in civil rights laws, such that the democrats won scarce support in the South.
P – Showed deep divisions within the democratic party
E – 1968 Democratic convention chaotic with violent protests and clashes with demonstrators and police.
- Explain and analyse three reasons why the 2016 presidential election is considered by some to be a realigning election. p431
P – Victory of a political outsider
E - It was the first example since Eisenhower in 1952 of victory by a political outsider, someone with no previous political or experience. In addition, Trump couldn’t boast of a record of distinguished military or public service. It was generally viewed as a victory for populism over experience and mainstream politicians.
P – Shift in less educated white voters
E - The main change was among less well-educated white people in Upper Midwest states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and also Ohio. For example, The biggest shift in a single county there was in Monroe County, where the Republican vote shot up from 52% (2012) to 72% (2016).
P - It revealed the growing gap between the urban and multi-ethnic USA, and the largely white exurban/ small-town/rural USA.
E - Each voted in record numbers for ‘their’ candidate. Clinton won 59% vs 35% in urban areas, and Trump 62% vs 34% in rural areas.
- Explain and analyse three reasons why 2024 is considered by some to be a realigning election.
P – Trump won on radical agenda
P – Polarisation of U.S Politics
P – Republican won popular vote for first time since 2004
- Explain and analyse three reasons why Biden won the 2020 presidential election. (see your notes)
P – Tactics
E – Biden tried to present himself as a quiet, moderate healer of a divided country. His tactic was to stay away from mass rallies , wear face coverings and allow Trump to incriminate himself.
P – COVID 19 pandemic
E – Trump lost support over his inconsistent messaging and handling of the pandemic. Most wanted some respite from the divisions, chaos and partisan rhetoric. In an exit poll, 18% of voters said the issue that mattered most for their vote was the pandemic.
P – Libertarian party candidate Jo Jorgensen
E – She captured more votes than the Republicans losing margin in all but 1 of the 5 swing states. If we assume these voters would have backed Trump, the election results may have been different.
- Explain and analyse three core voting groups and their policy objectives in U.S. elections. p433
P – White evangelical voters
E – Pro-life, traditional values especially in the areas of LGBTQ+ and transgender rights. White evangelical Christians overwhelming support the Republican party – 80% voted for Trump in 2024.
P – African Americans
E – Democrats support for civil rights, opposition to voter suppression tactics such as tougher ID laws, and tackling poverty. In 2024, Harris received 85% of the black vote.
P – Public sector labour unions
E – Increasing minimum wage, protection of workers rights in areas such as healthcare and pensions.
- Explain and analyse three ways in campaign finance influences U.S. elections. p434-438
P – Money is spent on people and publicity.
E - Professional campaigns need to employ a whole range of specialists, from political strategists to web designers. Also buying up airtime on television stations for political ads, especially in swing states. Finally, there are ads to be purchased on social media. By mid October 2020, the Biden and Trump teams combined spent around $175 million on Facebook ads. This compares to around $750 million spent on television ads
P – Super PACs and dark money groups can have huge impacts on elections
E – Super PACs can run extensive attack ads such as Restore Our Future $140 million campaign against Obama. Over 150 million spent anonymously during the 2018 Congressional races.
P – It influences elections by providing opportunities for political participation
E – 1st Amendment right to free speech
A - Top 1% donors donated 2/3rds of money.
- Explain and analyse three reasons in support of increased regulation of campaign finance. p439
P - Election expenditure has got out of control in recent years.
E - It needs to be brought under control. 2020 saw more money spent than in the previous two elections combined. A total of $6.6 billion was spent on the presidential race. The cost of elections means that only the personally wealthy or well connected, e.g. Trump and Bloomberg, can really afford to enter politics and get anywhere. It heightens the elitist nature of US politics. Trump pumped an estimated $66 million of his own money into the 2016 campaign.
P - Reforms are desperately needed to plug loopholes
E- There are plenty of instances of non-disclosure such as with ‘dark money’. Over 150 million spent anonymously during the 2018 Congressional races. 501 (c) groups are “social welfare” groups that must spend the majority of time on non-political activities but can keep donors anonymous.
P – Exacerbates divisions in society
E - Business groups far outspend labour groups. When looking at PACs, that margin is roughly 7:1. Additionally, Super PACs have become tools of the wealthy. Top 1% donors donated 68% of money.
- Explain and analyse three reasons against increased regulation of campaign finance. p439
P –First Amendment right to free speech
E - Fundraising and political donations are a crucial part of the democratic process. They allow supporters to show additional loyalty to their favoured candidates and causes
P - Political donation comes with transparency and disclosure.
E - Most political donations and donor identities must be declared to the Federal Election Commission and are in the public domain. Spending by PACs is limited: for example, a PAC cannot give more than $5,000 to a candidate’s campaign per year. This limits direct contributions to candidates’ campaigns
A – However, these spending limits are not restricted to “soft money” and Super PACs who can raise unlimited funds. In the 2020 election, Super PACs spent $1.8 billion.
P – Money does not guarantee influence so reform should not be a priority
E - In 2016, Super PACs spent $215 million supporting Clinton’s unsuccessful presidential campaign, while Trump received comparatively less support. The highest-spending candidate won in only four out of the ten most expensive 2020 Senate races.
- Explain and analyse three examples of direct democracy in the U.S
P - Ballot initiatives
E – These are laws or measures proposed by voters, and if enough signatures are obtained, are placed on the ballot at election time, usually in November alongside local, state and national elections. Ballot initiatives have been held over a vast array of issues resulting in the legalisation of marijuana in 5 states and the adoption of a new state flag in Missisipi.
P - Recall elections
E - Voters can force an elected state official such as a mayor, judge or governor to face re-election before their full term has expired. A California state judge, Aaron Persky, was successfully recalled in 2018. This was due to his comments and the leniency of a sentence handed out to a Stanford University student found guilty of sexual assault.
P – Referendums
E - Can occur where the state legislature passes a law but is then required to submit this directly to voters for approval. Legislatures in every state regularly refer state constitutional amendments to voters. In 2018, one example was in Alabama where 78% of voters supported an amendment to the state constitution allowing the display of the Ten Commandments in state courthouses.
A - Unlike many other Western democracies, including the UK, the USA only has direct democracy at state level. There is no constitutional provision for national referendums