Voting Behaviour and Media Flashcards
(50 cards)
1
Q
What is Psephology?
A
The study of voting behaviour, involving statistics and data.
2
Q
What is Partisan voting?
A
- Voting which is aligned with social class. Eg, lower classes vote for Labour and upper classes vote for Conservative.
3
Q
What is class dealignment?
A
- People are less likely to consider themselves a certain class, affecting their support for individual parties.
4
Q
What is partisan dealignment?
A
The outcome of class dealignment. People do not vote in line with their social class.
5
Q
What did Peter Pulzer say regarding to voting behaviour?
A
“Class is the basis of British party politics, everything else is embellishment and detail”.
6
Q
What is the sociological model of voting behaviour?
A
- Emphasises the influence of social factors such as class, ethnicity, religion, and regional identity on how individuals vote.
- This means that people from certain socio-economic backgrounds or geographic regions are more likely to support particular parties due to shared values, experiences, or interests.
7
Q
What is the dominant ideology regarding the media?
A
The media determine the agenda, and transmit these values to voters. Usually the media is linked to the wealthiest in society, who dominate the agenda.
8
Q
What is the rational choice model?
A
Views voting as a rational decision-making process where voters weigh the costs and benefits of different options and choose the one that aligns most closely with their preferences and interests.
- Recognises that most voters are not strong identifiers and have no real connection with the political parties - they are essentially unaligned.
- Voters decide how to vote on the basis of a series of judgements* made about several relevant factors.
- For example: a party’s track record, election manifesto, the party leaders, single issues.
- This means that voters make a decision not based on class, age, ethnicity or gender or party identification but on who will benefit them and their families
9
Q
What are the Social Grades between A-E?
A
- A: Administrative
- B: Intermediate administrative
- C1: Supervisory
- C2: Skilled manual worker
- D: Semi and unskilled worker
- E: State pensioners or unemployed with state benefits.
10
Q
How relevant is class now?
A
- In 1970, over 90% of votes went to Labour and Conservatives, showing high levels of class alignment.
- However 2010 was a historic low for the combined vote of Lab/ Cons vote at just 57%.
11
Q
How has the changing structure of the UK economy impact class dealignment?
A
Less traditional industry following Thatcher policies, and the rise of a service based economy has blurred traditional class ideas.
12
Q
How has increased social mobility impact class dealignment?
A
Increased social mobility has allowed individuals to move between social classes more freely than in previous generations. We can link this with improved education opportunities compared to 50+ years ago.
13
Q
How has the changing party policies impact class dealignment?
A
Changing party policies. If we consider where parties are plotted on the political spectrum to 1970 we can see big shifts, and internal party factions. It is possible that this has been as a response to dealignment as a result of the afore factors however.
14
Q
Case Study: Leadership Quality comparison between Major vs Blair 1997?
A
- Blair was known for his strong oratory skills and ability to effectively communicate his message to the public.
- He presented a confident and charismatic image, which resonated with many voters and helped him to connect with the electorate on a personal level.
- Major was often criticised for his less polished communication style and perceived lack of charisma.
- Impact: For a myriad of reasons, Blair wins a landslide in 1997 with 418 out of 650 seats.
15
Q
Case Study: Leadership Qualities of Thatcher 1979?
A
- Voters are arguably now prepared to vote more imaginatively than based on class or attachment. We may refer to this as voter volatility.
- Leadership is a factor which affects voting behaviour.
- Presenting as confident, collected during a crisis, and having a strong strategy is desirable in the eye of the voter.
- Thatcher went on to become a good leader in her dealings with many issues, although arguably this is not what her initial electoral success can be attributed to.
16
Q
Case Study: Leadership Quality comparison between Brown vs Cameron 2010?
A
- In a common pattern, Gordon Brown was regularly perceived to be a “moodier” character than David Cameron.
- Gordon Brown was also perceived as weak after failing to call an election in the first October of his premiership, despite polls showing he would win.
- David Cameron came off particularly charismatic at the 2010 Conservative Party Conference.
- Impact: this was a fatal combination for Brown who failed to secure the highest number of votes in 2010.
- Impact: this was a fatal combination for Brown who failed to secure the highest number of votes in 2010.
17
Q
Case Study: Valance (Single) Issues impacting voting - Iraq War?
A
- Critics accused Blair of misleading the public about the reasons for going to war.
- There was a belief that Blair exaggerated or misrepresented intelligence about Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction.
- Some seen the decision to go to war as defying international consensus and the United Nations Security Council. Blair’s close alignment with the Bush administration in the United States, despite widespread opposition from other countries.
- **Impact: Blair loses over 100 seats (and his majority in Parliament) from 2001 to 2005. **
18
Q
Case Study: Valance (Single) Issues impacting voting - Black Wednesday-?
A
September 1992- known as ‘Black Wednesday’, the Pound was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).
Before Black Wednesday, the U.K. had been in the European ERM for two years.
However, the pound was depreciating and falling close to the lower limits set by the ERM. The British government took steps to bolster the pound, including raising interest rates and authorising the use of foreign currency reserves to purchase pound.
19
Q
Case Study: How does leadership qualities affect voting - Major vs Blair 1997?
A
- Blair was known for his strong oratory skills and ability to effectively communicate his message to the public.
- He presented a confident and charismatic image, which resonated with many voters and helped him to connect with the electorate on a personal level.
- Major was often criticised for his less polished communication style and perceived lack of charisma.
- **Impact: for a myriad of reasons, Blair wins a landslide in 1997 with 418 out of 650 seats. **
20
Q
Case Study: How does leadership qualities affect voting - Thatcher 1979?
A
- Voters are arguably now prepared to vote more imaginatively than based on class or attachment. We may refer to this as voter volatility.
- Leadership is a factor which affects voting behaviour.
- Presenting as confident, collected during a crisis, and having a strong strategy is desirable in the eye of the voter.
- Thatcher went on to become a good leader in her dealings with many issues, although arguably this is not what her initial electoral success can be attributed to.
21
Q
Case Study: How does leadership qualities affect voting - Brown vs Cameron?
A
- In a common pattern, Gordon Brown was regularly perceived to be a “moodier” character than David Cameron.
- Gordon Brown was also perceived as weak after failing to call an election in the first October of his premiership, despite polls showing he would win.
- David Cameron came off particularly charismatic at the 2010 Conservative Party Conference.
- **Impact: this was a fatal combination for Brown who failed to secure the highest number of votes in 2010. **
22
Q
Case Study: How do Valence (Single) Issues affect voting behaviour - Iraq War?
A
- Critics accused Blair of misleading the public about the reasons for going to war.
- There was a belief that Blair exaggerated or misrepresented intelligence about Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction.
- Some seen the decision to go to war as defying international consensus and the United Nations Security Council. Blair’s close alignment with the Bush administration in the United States, despite widespread opposition from other countries.
- Impact: Blair loses over 100 seats (and his majority in Parliament) from 2001 to 2005.
23
Q
Case Study: How do Valence (Single) Issues affect voting behaviour - Black Wednesday?
A
- September 1992- known as ‘Black Wednesday’, the Pound was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).
- Before Black Wednesday, the U.K. had been in the European ERM for two years.
- However, the pound was depreciating and falling close to the lower limits set by the ERM. The British government took steps to bolster the pound, including raising interest rates and authorising the use of foreign currency reserves to purchase pound.
- Impact: humiliation of John Major’s government fatally damaged the Conservative Party’s reputation for economic competence, paving the way for Tony Blair.
24
Q
Case Study: How do Valence (Single) Issues affect voting behaviour - European Relations/ Immigration, 2010 and Beyond?
A
- Brexit has become a dominant issue in UK politics, prompting some voters to engage in single-issue voting.
- This has led to increased volatility in elections, as voters prioritize their views on Brexit above other policy considerations.
- This has also led to polarisation (divisions) within parties.
25
What do critics say about the Rational Choice Model?
- **People don't always make fully rational decisions when voting due to biases, and information that comes from the media support at that time (dominant ideology).
- Factors like class, ethnicity, and social identity can and do heavily influence voting.**
- Voting involves **complex issues that may be hard for individuals to understand fully**, which the rational choice model oversimplifies.
- People often vote based on simply **party identification/ partisanship**. Some people vote the way their parents vote, because that's the way their parents voted!
26
What is the dominant ideology model?
The argument that those with power control the media, and the media controls public conscience and priorities.
27
What is "The Sun Wot Won It"?
- **Newspapers** are a traditional media outlet in the UK that **have been heavily linked to election outcomes**.
- **Every party that has been backed by The Sun since 1979 has won the General Election (GE).**
- This is **with the exception of 2010** when there was a hung parliament (no clear majority winner).
- However, **The Sun did back the Conservatives who went on to get the highest number of seats in the GE**.
- In 2010 The Sun backs Cameron, copying the approach of the media to Obama’s (highly successful) “Hope” campaign
28
How is the decline in newspaper readership?
- Due to **increasingly available forms of new media** providing news to the electorate, newspaper readership is in decline.
- Newspaper readership has **fallen 30% in the UK as of 2022**.
- There is therefore said to be a decline in the impact of newspaper readership on political opinions
29
Why do parties use social media?
Political parties are increasingly using social media, as reflecting in spending on their campaigns.
**This is because**:
- Many people can be reached in one post,
- It is more cost effective than other media
outlets,
- Due to algorithms, groups can be
targeted.
30
Is social media really that helpful?
Although it’s benefits of being low cost and maximal reach:
- There is evidence to suggest that social media as a form of political campaigning is ineffective.
- In **2017 Labour “won” the social media** battle of the election under Corbyn in terms of views and engagement.
- However, if this had been effective they should have won a **landslide-but still lost to the Conservatives**.
31
What are Echo Chambers and how do they work?
- **Echo Chamber**: an environment that only the same views are considered (echoed), often on social media but often in social groups.
- **The influence of the media can be diminished with the argument that we consume the media we support**.
- Of course someone who supports **left wing** policies may choose to read the **Guardian**, and someone who supports **right wing** policies may choose to read the **Daily Mail**.
- However, this is particularly true given the impact of algorithms of social media.
32
How do TV debates affect the electorate?
**The 2010 General Election was unique as it was the first time televised leaders debates have been used in UK elections* - a more American, presidential, style of election campaigning.
**Public reaction was positive**:
- **50% of 18-39 year olds** said that it
helped them make up their mind about
how to vote
- **55%** said that it made them more
interested in the campaign.
- **80%** that they learned more about the
parties
33
What are polls and what are some polling companies?
Opinion polls enable people to express views on important issues and can inform politicians about the views of groups of people.
Most polls are carried out by seven main organisations
- Populus,
- Survation,
- Lord Ashcroft,
- YouGov,
- Ipsos Mori,
- Opinium,
- ICM.
**They generally take a sample of 1000–2000 people from 50–100 constituencies**
34
Why might polls be inaccurate?
- Bias may occur if the selection process **unintentionally includes more supporters of one party**.
- Differences in response rates can also create bias if **supporters of one party are more likely to participate**.
- **Turnout predictions further complicate accuracy**, as not everyone who expresses a voting intention will actually vote.
- **Bias can emerge over time as political landscapes shift**, making previously accurate polling methods less reliable.For example, an oversampling of graduates may become problematic if graduates begin to favor a specific party.
- **Question wording** can also influence responses, particularly on sensitive political issues like abortion.
- It's crucial to examine how questions were **framed** in a poll before interpreting the results
35
Case Study: Polls - YouGov and its impact?
- YouGov uses a **large online panel of respondents** who have been recruited to reflect the general population. This ensures that its samples are representative.
- When panel members sign up, they provide **extensive demographic information**, allowing YouGov to select balanced samples for each poll.
- YouGov applies sophisticated weighting methods to adjust for any over- or under-representation of specific groups in their samples, improving accuracy.
- **The company has a history of accurate predictions in elections and referendums, such as the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.**
- YouGov publishes its methodologies, including how respondents are chosen and how data is weighted, allowing scrutiny by experts.
- Regular polling helps YouGov detect trends and shifts in public opinion over time, providing a clearer picture of voter intentions
36
Case Study: A key year for polls - 1992?
In 1992, polling showed Labour was growing at the expense of the Conservatives. This may have encouraged a higher poll for the Conservatives as **wavering voters decided to vote for the government** rather than chance a labour administration under Kinnock.
In 1992 the following issues were present:
- Many Conservative voters were unwilling to admit their voting preference, leading to an underrepresentation in polls. This voter demographic are known as **“Shy Torys”**.
- A **late swing** to the Conservatives occurred after most polls had been conducted.
- Pollsters **failed to select truly representative samples**, overestimating Labour support.
- Pollsters **misjudged voter turnout**, overestimating Labour participation and underestimating Conservative turnout
37
What is the bandwagon effect?
When people vote for for the person who they believe is going to win, this is called the bandwagon effect.
38
Case Study: A key election for polls - GE15?
- The British Polling Council investigated the 2015 election polls because they failed to predict the actual results, especially the Conservative Party's 7% lead.
- ** "Lazy Labour"** voters might have caused problems because they expressed intentions to vote Labour during polls but did not actually turn up to vote, making Labour's predicted support seem higher than it was.
- "Shy Tories" was a more plausible explanation in 1992 because Conservative voters were less open about their preferences at the time. In 2015, this effect seemed less relevant, as **all main parties had faced significant unpopularity**.
39
Case Study: Impact of polls - GE15?
- Whilst the Conservatives won convincingly, 18% of the campaign polls had suggested a dead heat and a further **46% had suggested Labour leads**.
- Of the 36% of polls that registered Conservative leads, **three out of four showed leads that were less than half** the actual outcome.
- **Two polls** - from Ashcroft and ICM - gave the Conservatives a **6% lead** but these were published about two weeks before polling day.
40
What is Margaret Thatcher known for?
- Her **strong leadership style** and transformative policies, often called "Thatcherism."
- Prioritising **free-market principles**, privatising state-owned industries, and reducing the power of trade unions.
- Internationally, she was a key figure in the Cold War, **aligning closely with US President Ronald Reagan** and taking a firm stance against the Soviet Union.
- Thatcher’s **policies were divisive**, earning her both admiration as the **"Iron Lady"** for her resolve and criticism for exacerbating social and economic inequalities.
41
What are Thatcher's unpopular policies?
- **Sold off public utilities and industries like British Gas, British Telecom, and British Airways**, leading to debates over public ownership versus private profit.
- Introduced a **flat-rate tax** that sparked widespread protests and riots, contributing to her political downfall (trialled only in Scotland - hugely unpopular)
- **Shut down unprofitable coal mines**, leading to massive job losses and clashes with the **National Union of Mineworkers**.
- Reduced government spending on **social services**, particularly housing and education, leading to criticism over increasing inequality.
- Focused on **reducing inflation rather than unemployment**, which initially caused a recession and high job losses
- Allowed council housing tenants to **purchase their homes at discounted rates**, criticized for reducing affordable housing stock.
- Retook the **Falkland Islands from Argentina**, praised by some but criticised for its cost and militaristic approach
- **"Big Bang"** reforms in 1986 led to London becoming a **global financial hub** but contributed to **income inequality**.
- Introduced legislation to **curb union power**, requiring secret ballots for strikes and limiting picketing
42
What were the opposition party's failures during the Thatcher years?
- **The Winter of Discontent** (1978–79) refers to a period of widespread strikes in the UK caused by **disputes over pay between trade unions and the Labour government.**
- **Inflation had eroded workers’ wages, and the government’s attempts to impose pay caps angered unions**, leading to strikes across sectors, including transport, health, and waste collection.
- The **strikes disrupted daily life**, with uncollected rubbish piling up and even reports of gravediggers refusing to work.
- **Media coverage intensified public frustration**, portraying the government as unable to manage the economy or unions effectively.
43
What was the impact of the Media during the Thatcher years?
- **Newspapers like The Sun shifted their support from Labour to the Conservatives**, emphasising Labour's failures and portraying Thatcher as a strong, decisive leader.
- Headlines and stories highlighted the **"Winter of Discontent"** and economic struggles, creating a narrative of crisis under Labour.
- The Conservative Party used effective advertising, including the famous **"Labour Isn't Working"** campaign, to highlight unemployment and promote their vision for change.
- **Television coverage presented Thatcher's leadership in a favorable light while framing James Callaghan as steady but disconnected** from public concerns.
44
What was the impact of the manifesto during the Thatcher years?
- The Conservative policies of 1979 **focused on addressing key issues that resonated with a frustrated electorate**.
- Their manifesto promised to **tackle inflation and unemployment by reducing state intervention in the economy**, a shift from the Labour government's heavily regulated approach.
- **They proposed curbing the power of trade unions**, which had been widely criticised for causing disruption during the Winter of Discontent.
- The Conservatives **also pledged tax cuts to stimulate individual responsibility and enterprise, appealing to middle-class voters**.
45
What was the impact of leadership style during the Thatcher years?
- **Margaret Thatcher’s media training, led by consultant Gordon Reece, refined her image and communication skills, boosting her political success**.
- She softened her tone, reduced the harshness of her voice, and projected confidence and warmth to appeal to voters.
- Reece emphasised **controlling her television presence, while Thatcher practiced concise, impactful responses to stay on message**.
- Her “no nonsense” approach quickly earned her the nickname the **Iron Lady**.
46
What was the impact of handling crisises during the Thatcher years?
- The successful military campaign to reclaim the **Falkland Islands from Argentina** generated a wave of national pride.
- Before the war, Thatcher's government was unpopular due to **high unemployment and economic struggles**.
- The victory helped change public perception, portraying her as a leader who could take tough decisions under pressure.
- The war ended in June 1982, and Thatcher called the general election for June 1983.
47
48
Case Study: GE2017 - What were the campaigns?
- Although Theresa May was very popular initially, she said that she wasn’t going to suddenly call an election.
- May then went back on her word claiming it was in national interest yet others claimed that she had ulterior motives.
- Jeremy corbyn said ‘ how are we meant to trust our prime minister’ trying to make conservative voters question their decision to vote for her.
- May attended very few televised debates unlike her competitor Jeremy corbyn making it seem like she wasn’t serious about the election.
49
Case Study: GE2024 - Regional voting and social class?
- In 2024, age continued to be a important dividing line. **Labour led among every age group except those aged 65+**, where the Conservatives had a **20 percentage point lead** over Labour.
- Labour’s votes were **split relatively evenly between men and women**. Women were more likely to vote Conservative than men, while a higher proportion of **men (17%) voted Reform UK than women (13%)**.
- In 2024, social class was not a reliable indicator of whether someone is more likely to vote for Labour and the Conservatives, unlike previous elections. Both parties had a **similar mix of voters from different social classes**. Reform UK did best among **social class C2 (skilled manual workers) (25%), equalling Conservative support among this group**.
50
Case Study: GE2024 - Party Dealignment?
- According to YouGov’s analysis, Labour held on to **71% of their 2019 voters, losing 10% to the Greens and 8% to the Lib Dems**. Only **2%** of 2019 Labour voters switched to the **Conservatives**.
- The Conservatives held on to around half **(53%) their 2019 voters in 2024**. A quarter **(25%) switched to Reform UK**, while one in ten (10%) voted Labour and 7% for the Lib Dems.
