Voting Behaviour and the media Flashcards
Evaluate the view that the influence of the media is the most important factor that
determines the success or failure of a political party.
Intro: While the influence of the media can have a sizeable impact on election results, the extent to which can drastically change the outcome is limited.
1: the media is effective as it can be a major tool in crafting an image of politicians and campaigns.
Example: Labour employed aggressive advertising in the 2017 general election online aimed at youth voters, which saw greater success for Labour in this demographic.
Example: The success of Nick Clegg in the debates, running up to the 2010 elections are seen by many as giving the Lib Dems the support to deny the Conservatives a majority.
However: Shouldn’t be overstated.
Example: Nick Clegg’s performance may have been impressive but the Lib Dems actually lost 5 seats in the 2015 election.
Example: In the 2017 election, 4 out the 6 most popular daily newspaper publications supported the tories but they still failed to maintain their majority.
2: Heavily divided parties do not tend to perform well in elections.
Example: The loss by the Conservatives in the 1997 election can mainly be attributed to the divided nature of the Conservative party, especially on Europe.
Example: By contrast, Tony Blair had united Labour under the banner of New-Labour, which proved to be an election winning-machine.
However: parties have been able to gain electoral success despite disunity.
Example: Jeremy Corbyn was widely unpopular with his party prior to the 2017 elections, he lost a motion of no confidence 172-40. This reflected divisons in Labour between the centre and the centre-left. Despite this he managed to gain the largest increase in vote share since 1945.
3: Voter’s overwhelming flock to parties who show strong leadership, with a clear sense of direction.
Example: Labour were punished in the 1979 election, where James Callaghan’s government were seen as week and at the mercy of the over-mighty trade unions. While Margaret Thatcher was not personally popular, she managed to capitalise on her strong image of fighting against trade union power.
Example: Nigel Farages’ personality is often seen as a major reason he was able to bring his only 6 week-old party to electoral success in the 2019 EU elections,, winning over 1/3rd of the UK’s 79 seats.
Example: The great recession in 2008-2009, which happened under the Brown ministry gave voter’s the impression of financial mismanagement, leading to the end the 13-year Labour rule.
Conclusion: the influence of a party’s leadership holds the greatest influence in comparison to the media and the unity of a party, especially as unity is heavily reliant on the leader as well.
Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition.
Intro:
1: Government management of the economy is absolutely vital and failure in this area can result in the government losing the election
Example: The winter of discontent was incredibly damaging to the Labour Party in 1979 general election as strikes and a bitter winter led to a huge loss of support for the party - this resulted in labour losing to Thatchers Conservatives.
- The importance of economy management was further Evident in the run up to the 1997 general election.
Example: The Conservatives gained a poor reputation for economic continents especially after Black Wednesday in 1996.
- This inflicted a lot of damage to the Conservative party who placed a large emphasis on being the party or financial competence.
- That it can be easily seen that economic management is a vital area that needs a public backing especially as it has the potential to affect the whole election and has an impact on personal financial security.
However: On the other hand it can be argued that oppositions win elections, particularly by running affective campaigns that undermine the government
Example: The Conservatives in 1979 run and effective campaign claiming that labour isn’t running. During the winter of discontent moment, this was a message that resonated with the population - Lead to swing voters of 11% from C2 and 9% from DE to Conservatives, groups which traditionally vote labour.
Example: Similarly new Labour run a slick campaign in 1997 to encourage people to go out and vote them into power.
They targeted middle England in particular and recorded large swings from C1 and C2 after running a strict and disciplined campaign from Millbank media Centre.
- These examples show the parties had learned from there period of opposition which enabled them to run strong campaign to become elected.
- However these campaigns were ultimately capitalising on a weak government in power at the time, while campaigns can be slick or clever it is still the mistakes of the government that ultimately lose them elections.
2: Furthermore poor leadership within the government is an important factor in leading to its failure.
Example: Callaghan despite being personally popular 1979 we seem to be weak in dealing with the striving unions.
His dismissal of the winter of discontent’s seriousness was damaging within the media and the air lead line ‘crisis, what crisis?’ was quickly picked up by the Conservative party.
Example: Similarly in 2010 Gordon Brown was also seen as an insecure workaholic who could not articulate a convincing vision for the country - his disastrous interview with Dylan Buffy when campaigning in Lancashire where he labelled her a ‘bigoted woman’ Was a significant mistake.
Example: Theresa May in 2017 also alienated voters with a U-turn in social care during the campaign - this made her seem weak and indecisive subsequently causing her to lose her majority.
However: However opposition leaders can seem strong and fresh in comparison to week leaders in government.
- In an age of personality and image, how charismatic leaders are can help determine the outcome
Example: in 1997 Tony Blair was seen as a young charismatic leader With a clear vision while John Mayer appeared grey, unexciting a weak.
Example: In 2010 Nick Clegg use the television debates to his advantage, to present himself and his party as a credible third option. The subsequent Coalition government with Clegg as deputy prime minister demonstrated how he appeared as a reputable leader.
- However it should be noted that despite the enhancement of his personal reputation, liberal democrat take vote share increased by 1% but Five seats were lost.
- Good leadership therefore does not translate to votes at election time, particularly for a smaller party under FPTP.
3: Governments further lose election by being a divided party.
- Disunity in government can be very damaging at election time
Example: The Conservatives had become deeply divided by 1997 over Europe - The party was split over euroscepticism and pro European MPs. Labours subsequent landslide pointed to a divided and tired party who had spent nearly 20k years.
However: if the opposition can get the media on their side, they can also use their support to their advantage at an election.
Example: The Sun has backed any election win since 1979, famously claiming ‘it’s the sun wot won it’ In 1992 after running a campaign against the Labour Party and its leader Neil Kinnock.
Example: In 1997, Tony Blair and his press secretary, Alistair Campbell, made it a priority to gain their backing in the 1997 campaign and made much of their support in their televised broadcast.
- Therefore, opposition have the potential to win elections and over through an existing government, especially if the leadership is strong and they can win over the media.
Evaluate the view that, for the general public, the media is more significant than policy statements and manifestoes from political parties.
Intro: Media is more significant as it is more prevalent.
1: Social Media
- Social media is a large source in which people get their news from, especially for young people.
- Therefore young people are exposed to a much wider variety of news compared to older generations. This could then in turn influence the way young people vote
Example: such as turnout like we saw with the mayoral election and Niko Omilana.
- media provides voters with relevant + up to date info about political parties
However: Echo Chambers
- social media is generally used by people to share views that they hold
- an ‘echo chamber’ rather than a way to engage in debates and look at different views.
- people are friends with, and follow, people and journalists who are in line with their own beliefs, creating a false impression that most people are in agreement with a particular view.
2: Media = newspapers and television
- older voters (w higher turnout) read
Example: Blair 1997 convinced Rupert Murdoch to change allegiances of the sun (daily readership 10mil) to lab - 179 landslide majority
- television - considered to be impartial + not bias, dominates media coverage during election campaigns
Example: first 2010 leaders debate viewed by 9.6m - raised public awareness of lib dems ( up by 10pts in opinion polls) + leader Nick Clegg (“Cleggmania “)
Example: Print media was hugely influential in Major’s 1992 election victory with many arguing the Sun newspaper was the most influential factor with famous headline “The Sun wot won it”
However:
- readership declining - tend to prefer online
Example: limited influence as lib dems actually lost seats that year, lost 5 seats
- Some argued tv debates are simply just an emotional battle
3: Manifesto and Statements
- a well crafted manifesto with a ‘catch all’ appeal can transcend demographic and social factors, and unite a majority of the electorate behind one party and form the basis of repeated electoral success, relegating other parties to the political wilderness for years on end.
Example: 1979 - Conservatives - focus on the economy = identified ‘5 tasks’ appealing to feeling of economic and social crisis = appealed during winter of discontent ‘restore incentives so that hard work pays’ - 1.4 million unemployed at this time and wage stagnation
- showed economic competence
Example: 2019 - Clear stance on Brexit and sweeping centre ground = conservative manifesto an appeal for swing voters to break parl deadlock and ‘get Brexit done’
Much like in 1979, focused on limited no of issues important to electorate
