Week 10-Risk Assessments Flashcards
(40 cards)
What does the criminal justice system define risk and serious harm as?
-The risk of re-offending & reconviction - the probability that an offender / prisoner will offend, be arrested, and be reconvicted within 2 years
-The risk of serious harm - if reconvicted, the probability that the offence will be one of “serious harm”
Section 224 of the Criminal Justice Act 2003 defines serious harm (in the sentencing context, when determining whether an offender presents a significant risk to the public of serious harm by the commission of further offences) as “death or serious personal injury, whether physical or psychological.”
What is a risk assessment?
-A systematic effort to estimate and evaluate adverse outcomes
-Try to make predictions about future behaviours
-Forensic risk assessments draw on information about the offender and their circumstances in order to reach judgements about their future behaviour
-Concept of risk encompasses “the nature, severity, imminence and frequency or duration of harm - as well as its likelihood.” (Litwack et al., 2006, pp.493)
Define likelihood
Probability of the occurrence of an event
Define seriousness and dangerousness
S-Predicted future behaviours can differ in their level of seriousness
D-Adverse outcomes and how undesirable those outcomes would be
How may an offender be labelled as dangerous?
-On the basis of a high probability of committing many offences
OR
-Because of the potential to perpetrate a small number of very serious offences
OR
-More commonly an unknown mix of the two
The risk of harm posed by offenders to others can be seen as having what 2 key dimensions?
- The relative likelihood that an offence will occur
- The relative impact or harm of the offence - what exactly might happen, to what or whom under what circumstances and why
-It is important to understand these 2 dimensions of risk. Some crimes (e.g., shoplifting) have relatively little impact or harm but statistically are the most common
-Others (e.g., homicide) are rare but cause maximum damage
-It is important to identify the person or groups of people who are specifically at risk; this allows resources and protective measures to be applied effectively
Risk is categorised as a risk to who?
-The public: either generally or a specific group such as the elderly, vulnerable adults (e.g., those with a learning disability), women or an ethnic minority group
-A known adult; such as a previous victim or partner, an authoritative person or a celebrity
-Prisoners: within a custodial viewing
-Children: either specific children or children in general
-Staff: anyone working with the individual whether from probation, the prison service, police or other agency (e.g., health)
-Self: the possibility that the individual will commit suicide or self-harm
How is the level of risk categorised?
-LOW: current evidence does not indicate a likelihood of causing serious harm
-MEDIUM: there are identifiable indicators of serious harm. The offenders has the potential to cause such harm, but is unlikely to do so unless there is a change in circumstances e.g., failure to take medication, loss of accommodation, relationship breakdown, drug or alcohol misuse
-HIGH: there are identifiable indicators of serious harm. The potential event could happen at any time and the impact would be serious
-VERY HIGH: there is an imminent risk of serious harm. The potential event is more likely than not to happen as soon as the opportunity arises and the impact would be serious
A good risk assessment will do what?
-Make a prediction of risk along both dimensions - likelihood and impact of harm
-Identify the likelihood of re-offending
-Identify the risk of harm (what harm and to whom?)
-Identify the key risk factors that led to the offence under consideration and that should be addressed e.g., drug dealing or use
-To reduce the likelihood of further offending
What can risk assessments be used for?
Assess likelihood that someone will:
-Reoffend and for what type of offence
-Cause harm to others
-Treatment needs of that person
-Individuals treatability and treatment readiness
Give an example of a failure to conduct a risk assessment: Zahid Murabek
-8th February 2000 Zahid was in the young offenders institute for petty theft
-Was a known racist and killed his cellmate (double check in recording)
Who uses risk assessments?
-Police
-Courts
-Prisons
-Treatment providers
Risk assessments are carried out at what various stages of an offender pathway?
-During investigation
-Pre-sentence
-At admission to an institution
-Pre treatment
-Post treatment
-Pre-release
-Post-release
What are the consequences of false negatives?
-Non-custodial sentence or released from prison early
-Leads to more victims
-Additional costs to society
-Given suspended sentences or community orders
What are the consequences of false negatives? Andrew Dawson
-Got done for murder with an elderly shopkeeper then small theft given life sentence then released on license (if you offend straight to prison again) with a turn around suddenly killing 2 people both were helpless elderly usually
-Called himself the angel of mercy and had an impulse to kill
-Probation offenders insisted he would have been fine and gave no indications
What are the consequences of false negatives? Zara Aleena
-Zara was killed and sexually assaulted by Jordan Mcsweeney a prolific thief roaming the streets (was taken into care, domestically abused and expelled from schools)
-Was recalled to prison but not quick enough due to paperwork
-No one realised he was high risk due to viewing issues in isolation (e.g., violent tendencies in prison, 9 offences, domestic abused his partners) and probation offenders had 9 days and didn’t have enough time and information to determine this
What are the consequences of false positives?
-Parole is rejected in prison for longer than necessary
-Infringement of human rights
-Damage to the individual
-Waste of public resources
What are the consequences of false positives? Kim Kardashian
Non-violent drug conviction of Alice Johnson was taken to the oval office by Kim Kardashian after arguing unfairness over life sentence over 3 offences
What is the overarching aim of a risk assessment?
-To maximise the proportion of correct predictions
-Minimise the false positives and negatives
Risk factors: What are Static factors?
Static factors cannot be changed or influenced and are based on historical events or characteristics such as the offender’s gender, age, offending history, previous convictions
-Family background
-Previous offending behaviours
-Offence history
-Victim characteristics
Risk factors: What are Dynamic risk factors?
Dynamic risk factors relate to the attitudes, circumstances and behaviours that underpin or support offending
Can change through interventions (theoretically!)
Psychological:
-Cognitive distortions, empathy, problem solving, decision making
Social:
-Peer groups, employment status, relationship status
Behavioural:
-Impulsivity, anger issues, risk taking (related to lack of consequential thinking), drug taking
Types of risk assessment: What are clinical risk assessments?
-Clinicians use their own experience and intuition
-Collect background information
-Observations of the offender by professionals
-Interviews with the offender
-Comes from the medical field and seen as diagnostic method of assessment
-May use a rating list or checklist
-The risk factors differ in clinical assessments based on the individual
What are some strengths and weaknesses of Clinical risk assessments?
-The debate centres on the accuracy of the clinician’s ability to predict violence
-The clinician can assess emotional state throughout the interview. For example, emotional traits such as lack of empathy and anger (Menzies, Webster & Sepejak, 1985) and physiological and behavioural traits such as chanting, flared nostrils, flushed face and clenching of the jaw/hands (Berg, Bell & Tupin, 2000)
-Thornberry and Jacoby (1979) 65% who were subsequently released into the community only 11% were re-arrested for violent offences
-Monahan’s (1984) claim that 2/3 of all clinical predictions of violence are incorrect
-Susceptible to decision-making heuristics and biases
-We tend to look for information that proves our hypothesis instead of being wrong
-Predictions of rare events with a large sum of information often results in high errors (false positive)
-To some degree, lay people can also make similar predictions of risk to clinicians meaning the risk assessments are more down to the individual rather than the actual components of the risk assessment
Risk assessments: What are Actuarial risk assessments?
-Uniform rules and strict decision making criteria are applied
-Based on longitudinal studies which assess associations between risk factors at the outcome being measured
-These require analysis of substantial sample from which generalisations are to be drawn
-Use algorithms or statistical equations often of static risk factors
-Give risk score or risk level
-Generalise which risk factors are associated with which risk factor
