WEEK 2- L4.1 causality

Question 1

necessary conditions for causality by stuart mill

4

Answer 1

1. covariance- simultanous change of two variables
2. temporal ordering- cause has to change before the affect (needs to initiate change)
3. spatial and temporal contiguity- must be possible to justify a plausible link
4. nonspurious- presence of a confounding variable should be ruled out (cause and effect are both caused by a confound)

Question 2

importance of covariance;

3

Answer 2

covariance is necessary, but not sufficient for causality

Question 3

deterministic relationship

Answer 3

a cause will always produce the same outcome (perfectly predictable)

Question 4

probabalistic relationship

Answer 4

presence of a cause makes it more likely that an outcome will happen

Question 5

what are intervening variables?

2

Answer 5

moderator
mediator

Question 6

what are antecedent variables?

2

Answer 6

confound, control

Question 7

confound variable example

Answer 7

we may first think that an electoral system influences the number of political parties. but in reality, the cleavage structure of a country may be causing the electoral system in the first place.

Question 8

mediator

Answer 8

comes betwen the cause and the effect

IV => Mediator => DV

Question 9

mediator example

Answer 9

liberal noorms at the society level, doesn’t effect the decision against war directly, but is mediated by individual decision makers

Question 10

moderator

Answer 10

comes between cause and effect but rather moderates the strength of the outcome

• supressor
• reinforcer
• distorter

IV => DV

Question 11

moderator example dpt

Answer 11

if a country is a member of a military alliance such as nato, this may affect the decision-making process against war
(in this case, it can reinforce the decision)

Question 12

moderator example negative ads

Answer 12

we want to examine how negative ads influence their candidate preference. in this case, party identification may be a moderator. if someone is a huge trump fan, and you show them a negative ad about trump, party identification may distort (reverse) the effects that the negative ads were supposed to have

Question 13

counfound

Answer 13

makes the relationship spurious, both are caused by a third factor aka ultimate iv

IV <= Confound => DV