Week 6 Flashcards

(51 cards)

1
Q

What are heuristics and biases in cognitive thinking

A

Mechanisms where we create mental shortcuts for decision-making and efficiency

Speeds up our processing

Does not always yield the most accurate output

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

What does using heuristics lead to?

A

Faster Processing
Quick Decision Making
Reduced Effort

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

What is a salience bias?

A

People pay more attention to “salient” information
Big signs, loud noises
Having your company name titled “AA autos” has you placed at the top of yellow pages which makes it easy to locate

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

What is an example of an arithmetic calculation?

A

trying to calculate 48x52…… it would make it easier to round up/down and calculate 50x50

Use a short cut, not always accurate but you can get a neighbourhood number

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

What is availability Heuristics?

A

What comes to mind immediately is deemed more significant
Important to not overlook all information present.
ex: more roadside accidents than air travel accidents, yet people are more afraid of flying

Need to read between lines and review all information available

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

What is confirmation bias?

A

Looking for things to confirm your choice
e.g. bad first impression (does not shake hand or make eye contact) may prevent you from seeing any future positive qualities

The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or thoughts

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

Explain reverse causal reasoning

A

The false belief is that if event a causes event b, event b will also cause event a.

If A = B, then B = A
NOT TRUE ^^^
ex; flight from Toronto to Rome = 8 hours and 30 min, flight from Rome to Toronto is 9 hours and 35 minutes

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

Explain Overconfidence in Diagnosis

A

The gambler’s fallacy

Everything I touch turns to gold

Not everything is in your favour

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

Explain The Bandwagon Effect

A

“Just because everyone likes it so do I”

Get more than half of employers to follow job safety, others should also follow

Ex: getting celebrities to advocate for covid 19 vaccines

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

Explain Survivors bias

A

Information diagnosis only on survival information

Case Study: WWII Aircrafts
- only repaired sections on the plane where there are the most bullet holes
- really should protect parts without any bullet holes
- aircraft successfully survived with bullet holes, aircraft may not survive if hit in a different area

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

Explain Selective Perception Bias

A

The tendency to focus on only some aspects of the environment but ignore the others

For example, a teacher may have a favourite student because they are biased by in-group favouritism. The teacher ignores the student’s poor attainment.

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

Explain the overestimation of small numbers and underestimation of large numbers

A

You will overestimate something that’ll probably not happen because in reality it’s small (so you running a random red light and thinking you’ll get caught immediately is an overestimation since in reality there aren’t that many police cars on the road to catch you)

underestimation: you think something probably won’t happen but in reality, it is pretty likely (so you writing a paper and plagiarizing and thinking since the prof has to mark so many they won’t notice but in reality, they will catch you)

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

Explain the ostrich effect

A

People often avoid negative information, including feedback that could help them monitor their goal progress. Instead of dealing with the situation, we bury our heads in the sand, like ostriches.

e.g., ignoring deadlines for our projects

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

Explain outcome bias

A

only looking at a specific outcome and ignoring the conditions/environment
ex: getting an A in biomechanics but the prof gave an easy exam

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

Explain Placebo Bias

A

Using a person’s mind to convince them of something that is not there

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

Explain Anchoring Bias

A

People pay more attention to the first piece of information they see

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

Explain choice supportive bias

A

Favouring one option more than the other
e.g. political candidates, apple vs android

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

Explain Blind Spot Bias

A

the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself.
“Everyone is so stupid” but are you also stupid?
Bias for yourself

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

What is the hierarchy of controls?

A

The hierarchy of controls is used to determine how to implement feasible and effective control solutions
Most effective at the top, least effective at the bottom

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

What are the levels of the hierarchy of controls

A

Elimination, substitution, engineering controls, administrative controls and PPE

How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

What are the levels of the hierarchy of controls?

A

Elimination, substitution, engineering controls, administrative controls and PPE

22
Q

Explain Elimination from the hierarchy of controls

A

Is it possible to eliminate this hazard?
Installing hardware lines
Common to get a beehive on top of the control power
Instead of repair, replace completely

23
Q

Explain substitution in the hierarchy of controls

A

Is it possible to replace the hazard?
Example:
Replacing benzene (causes cancer) → toluene, cyclohexane, ketones
Replacing lead-based paint → titanium white

24
Q

Explain Engineering controls in the hierarchy of controls

A

Occupation risk there, but add technology to assist
Can we use machinery and devices to remove the hazard?
Example: replacing a screwdriver with a power drill
Ex: changing tires for a heavy vehicle
Use a heavy lift device to assist

25
Explain administrative controls in the hierarchy of controls
Can we isolate hazardous work practices and/or the hazard from workers not involved in the work or the general work areas? Example: treating a patient with Aids and/or covid-19 Putting risk in the corner - not adding anything
26
What personal protective equipment (PPE)
Is it possible to provide PPE that will protect employees from hazards? Relying on PPE to protect your employees is the last line of defence against a workplace injury Too often, PPE is forgotten, ill-fitting or does not provide the appropriate level of protection Ex: nurses and doctors wearing safety masks and shields still got infected with covid
27
What is risk? What are the types of risk?
A situation involving exposure to danger Types: negative and positive
28
What is negative risk?
Potential problems that might occur in the project and that might impede project success Sometimes called threats Examples: Quality, cost, time, etc Decreases limit for bringing alcohol via international flight - liquor companies in Canada would go down Increased in tariffs for importing steel
29
What is negative risk?
Potential problems that might occur in the project and that might impede project success Sometimes called threats Examples: Quality, cost, time, etc Decreases limit for bringing alcohol via international flight - liquor companies in Canada would go down Increased tariffs for importing steel
30
What is positive risk?
Risk that results in good things happening aka opportunities If Justin Trudeau's government is selected it could mean marijuana is legalized, which could lead to more investment opportunities If the legislation to stop day light saving, is passed – we can see increased daylight during work hours
31
What is risk-utility?
the amount of pleasure or satisfaction received from a potential payoff in a project also called risk tolerance "is it worth it"
32
What are the types of risk-utility?
risk-averse, risk-neutral, risk-seeking
33
Explain the chain of the response model
Step 1: Develop the Strategies Step 2: if they fail = a backup plan Step 3: fallback plan
34
What are risk strategies?
risk avoidance, risk acceptance, risk mitigation, risk transfer,
35
What is the difference between positive and negative risk
Positive risk: an opprotunity, that must not be avoided - make the most out of it, leads to positive outcomes and increased success Negative risk: a threat, avoid it and eliminate it (if possible and necessary), leads to negative outcomes and could lead to project failure
36
What is risk avoidance?
Eliminating the cause and thus eliminating the threat Often not possible, still the easiest way of removing risk from the project Changing the project plan to remove a risk will involve changes ex: subway getting rid of spokesperson before there was a verdict
37
What is risk acceptance:
No action is taken except you acknowledge its presence and you accept it Involves planning the risk into the project If a better response strategy cannot be identified = accepting risk might be sufficient to proceed the project ex: power outage during thunderstorm but do not buy expensive backup generator that may or may not be used
38
What is risk acceptance:
No action is taken except you acknowledge its presence and you accept it Involves planning the risk into the project If a better response strategy cannot be identified = accepting risk might be sufficient to proceed with the project ex: power outage during a thunderstorm but do not buy an expensive backup generator that may or may not be used
39
What is risk mitigation?
Risk is big therefore try to minimize the probability of the risk occurring or its impact used a lot ex; driving in the snow = put on snow tires
40
What is risk transfer?
Can transfer risk onto another party but requires trade-off/cost Shifting the consequences of a risk to the third party is not always easy but is overlooked ex: waiting to travel but the risk of COIVD. - buy health insurance (the risk of catching covid isn't transferred just the risk of money loss) ex: hiring a chef to cook instead of you to avoid risk of giving someone food poisining
41
What is a contingency plan?
these are predefined actions that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs ex. possible hijacking case leads to protocol A, B, C, etc. for every risk response strategy = need contingency plan not implemented right away; just in case ex. planning an outdoor wedding; if it rains, have door location
42
What is a fallback plan?
developed for the risks that have a high impact on meeting project objectives put into effect if contingency plans are not effective make executive decision to risk right then and there
43
What is residual risk?
Risk that remains after performing the risk response strategy Left over risk
44
Explain risk register
main output of risk identification process = list or identified risks and other info needed to begin creating a risk register risk register is…  document containing results of various risk management processes displayed in a table or spreadsheet  tool for documenting potential risk events and related info
45
What are risk events?
Specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project
46
What is risk-averse?
Big payoff but no risk Utility rises at a decreasing rate for people who are risk adverse
47
What is risk-neutral?
balance risk and payoff
48
What is risk-seeking?
Higher tolerance for risk and satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake The payoff is less but the risk is high
49
Explain the probability/impact matrix
Lists the relative probability of a risk occurring on one side of an axis and the relative impact of a risk occurring on the other Lists risks and then label each one (high/med/low) in terms of its probability of occurrence and its impact if it did occur
50
What is the risk score equation?
risk score = probability x impact
51
Probability can be both......
qualitative = high, med, low quantitative = 10% (probability) and 10,000 (Impact) *** probability can never exceed 1 (either 0.1-1 or 10-100%) impact = out of 10 probability = out of 1