4. Voting Behaviour and Media Flashcards
1
Q
Thatcher’s early political career
A
Elected an MP in 1959
Education secretary 1970-74
Elected Conservative leader in 1975
2
Q
When did Jim Callaghan become PM, why?
A
Became PM in 1976
Harold Wilson resigned after 2 years
Should have called election in 1978 but delayed it
3
Q
Winter of Discontent
A
1978-1979
Callaghan imposed a 5% cap on wage rises
57,000 Ford employees on strike as wells as lorry drivers, nurses, railway, and ambulance driver.
In Feb 1979: Liverpool’s gravediggers and London’s binmen went on strike
4
Q
What did Callaghan say about the Winter of Discontent?
A
accused public of “taking a rather parochial view”
5
Q
Thatcher’s Campaign
A
Used publicity specialists Tim Bell and Gordon Reece
‘Labour isn’t working’
6
Q
Why did Thatcher win in 1979?
A
- Circumstances - SNP withdrew support because 40% quorum not reached in 1979 devolution referendum (32.8%). Tories tabled vote of no confidence
- Winter of Discontent
7
Q
Result of 1979 election
A
Conservatives gained 62 seats (339)
Labour lost 50 seats (269)
SNP also lost 9 seats
8
Q
Leaders of the Labour Party
A
Moved left under Micheal Foot
Neil Kinnock, John Smith and Tony Blair moved the party towards the centre
9
Q
Why was John Major made the leader of the Conservative party, what happened during his premiership?
A
John Major only elected as least controversial, majority reduced from 102 to 21 seats
10
Q
What happened in Sep 1992?
A
Black Wednesday - UK dropped out of currency stabilizing system (ERM)
11
Q
What happened to Major’s majority?
A
shrank to 1 following by-elections, defections and suspensions.
12
Q
How was ‘back to basics’ campaign undermined
A
Stephen Mullighan found dead in ‘compromising circumstances’
Gary Waller admits to having an child with another MPs secretary
Stephen Norris resigns after 3 affairs
13
Q
How did Blair appeal to Middle Class?
A
Focus on education (“Education, Education, Education”) and health also pro-business
14
Q
How did Blair appeal to Tabloids?
A
Tough on crime, connections to south, Hospital waiting lists
15
Q
How did Blair appeal to Lib Dems?
A
Lords reform, voting system and devolution
16
Q
Results of 1997 elections
A
Labour gained 145 seats (418)
Conservatives lost 178 seats (165)
Parties almost equally apart 13,000,000, 9,000,000 and 5,000,000
17
Q
How did age help Blair to win?
A
achieved more across all groups
Highest % with 18-34 year olds
In the 18-24 females 53% voted Labour, 24% Conservative
18
Q
How did the Media help Blair to win?
A
Supported Blair
Tory Scandals
Focus groups used
19
Q
How did Gender help Blair to win?
A
Male/female votes for Labour = 45/44%
More women working, particularly in public sector
More family focused, free nursery places
20
Q
How did class help Blair to win?
A
Dealignment - able to appeal to middle class
21
Q
How did Employment Status help Blair?
A
45% employed and 64% unemployed voted Labour
30% employed and 15% unemployed voted Conservative
22
Q
How did ethnicity help Blair?
A
70% non-white voted Blair, compared to 18% conservative
Labour gained 66% Asian votes, and 82% black votes
23
Q
Why did Gordon Brown lose?
A
- Had no personal mandate
- Financial Crisis
- Personal Image: insecure, dour, overly serious, workaholic
- Sun switched sized, papers ran stories about financial crisis and personal defects
24
Q
What did the 2010 manifestoes promise?
A
Cut spending without cutting public services
25
What % agreed extra money spent by labour was wasted?
59%
26
What % though Brown/Cameron would be best PM?
Brown 29%
Cameron 33%
27
Who did the public trust with the economy?
Lab 26%
Con 29%
No one 36%
28
1992 GE quote about Media
'the sun wot won it"
29
How many watched the 2010 GE debate?
10 million
30
Which papers DON'T support conservatives?
Guardian, iNews, and Mirror
31
Facebook was h most popular media in how many countries in 2016?
26 counttires
32
What % of people in the UK said social media was the main source?
28%
33
When was compulsory voting in Australia, what is turnout?
Introduced in 1924
fine is £12
94% turnout
10% not registered to vote
still and 84.6% turnout
34
How has the link between class and voting behavior changed since the 1940s?
The link between class and voting behavior has weakened since the 1940s, a phenomenon known as class dealignment.
35
What was the pattern of support for the Conservative Party in the 2015 general election based on class?
The majority of support for the Conservative Party in the 2015 general election came from upper middle class and middle class voters.
36
Which social classes predominantly supported the Labour Party in the 2015 general election?
Working class voters predominantly supported the Labour Party in the 2015 general election.
37
What percentages of professional and managerial voters supported the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems in 2015?
45% Conservative
26% Labour
12% Lib Dem
38
How did voters from the 'DE' social class distribute their support among different parties in 2015?
41% of 'DE' social class voters supported the Labour Party, 27% supported the Conservative Party, and 19% supported UKIP in the 2015 general election.
39
What was the percentage of skilled workers who voted either Conservative or Labour in 2015?
32% of skilled workers voted either Conservative or Labour in the 2015 general election, indicating little alignment with either party.
40
What are some reasons cited to explain the trend of class dealignment in voting behavior?
Some reasons include improved social mobility, the decline of traditional working class industries, the rise of white-collar jobs, and efforts by political parties like New Labour and the Conservatives to broaden their appeal by moving to the political centre.
41
How did women's voting patterns change between the 2005 and 2015 General Elections?
Women shifted from predominantly voting Conservative to supporting New Labour in 2005. By 2015, the Conservatives slightly received more female votes than Labour.
42
Why were women more likely to vote New Labout in 2005
Women were less likely to be employed or members of trade unions, which may have influenced their tendency to vote Conservative. New Labour targeted female voters and ran more female candidates with the use of All Women Shortslists
43
How did the percentages of male and female voters distribute their support between the Conservative and Labour Parties in 2015?
In 2015, the Conservatives received slightly more (37%) female votes than Labour (33%), while 38% of male voters supported the Conservatives and 30% supported Labour.
44
What was notable about the voting behavior of men and women regarding the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party in 2015?
Equal percentages of men and women (8%) voted for the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party received 4% of both male and female votes in 2015.
45
What trend has been observed regarding age and voting behavior in past elections?
Older voters are more likely to vote Conservative, possibly due to becoming less comfortable with change as they age and having different family concerns and financial responsibilities.
46
How did the voting patterns of different age groups compare in the 2015 General Election?
In the 2015 General Election, 27% of voters aged 18-24 voted Conservative, while 47% of voters aged 65 and older voted Conservative.
Conversely, 43% of voters aged 18-24 voted Labour, compared to 23% of voters aged 65 and older.
47
What change in voting behavior among young voters occurred in the 2015 General Election?
The trend of young voters supporting the Liberal Democrats was broken in 2015, with their percentage of voters aged 18-24 dropping from 30% to 5%, possibly due to controversies over University tuition fees under the Coalition.
48
What historical trend exists regarding ethnicity and voting behavior?
Historically, there has been a link between ethnicity and voting behavior, with ethnic minorities tending to support the Labour Party.
49
What factors have been suggested to explain why ethnic minorities tend to support the Labour Party?
Factors include Labour passing major legislation to advance and protect the rights of ethnic minorities, such as the Race Relations Acts, and the Conservatives taking a firmer stance on immigration.
50
How can the voting behavior of ethnic minorities be influenced by other factors?
The vote of ethnic minorities can also be affected by class and particular salient issues, such as the drop in Labour support in 2005 that may have resulted from the Iraq War.
51
What were the voting percentages for ethnic minorities supporting Labour and the Conservative Party in 2015?
In 2015, 65% of ethnic minorities voted Labour, while only 23% voted Conservative.
52
Who is Akhmed Yakoob and what was his recent political achievement?
Akhmed Yakoob was a independent West Midlands mayoral candidate who won almost 70,000 votes in the recent election. He is dubbed the "Tik Tok Lawyer", having 190,000 followers.
53
Akhmed Yakoob is an independent West Midlands mayoral candidate who won almost 70,000 votes in the recent election.
Akhmed Yakoob plans to stand in Birmingham's Ladywood constituency, currently held by Labour MP Shabana Mahmood.
54
What was one of the key focuses of Akhmed Yakoob's campaign?
Akhmed Yakoob campaigned on a pro-Palestine ticket and advocated for people in Gaza, Kashmir, and Khalistan.
55
Who supported Akhmed Yakoob's candidacy in the West Midlands mayoral election?
Akhmed Yakoob was backed by MP George Galloway of the Workers Party of Britain
56
What does BBC analysis suggest about Labour's support in Muslim areas during England's recent local elections?
BBC analysis suggests that Labour's position on the Israel-Gaza war may have dented its support in Muslim areas, with its share of the vote down by 21% in wards where more than one in five residents identify as Muslim.
57
How did Akhmed Yakoob describe the West Midlands mayoral race?
'the beginning of the end of the Labour Party in the Midlands and Birmingham".
58
What geographical divide exists in voting behavior within the UK?
There is a clear north-south divide in voting behavior, with southern voters more commonly supporting the Conservative Party, while many northern and Welsh voters support Labour.
59
What percentage of voters in Scotland supported the SNP in the 2015 General Election?
In the 2015 General Election, 50% of voters in Scotland supported the SNP.
60
How was the Northern Irish vote divided in the 2015 General Election?
In the 2015 General Election, the Northern Irish vote was divided solely across Irish parties.
61
How do voting patterns differ between rural/suburban areas and urban cities?
Rural and suburban areas tend to support the Conservative Party, while urban cities lean towards the Labour Party.
62
What factors are linked to the geographical divisions in voting behavior?
These divisions are strongly linked with social class, as historically the north had many industrial jobs, while the south had many wealthy rural areas and high-paid professional jobs.
63
How were the Conservatives and Labour Party's successes distributed geographically in the 2015 General Election?
In the 2015 General Election, the Conservatives were most successful in southern England while Labour dominated northern constituencies and London.
64
What do these geographical divisions reflect?
These divisions strongly reflect the relative wealth of northern and southern constituencies.
65
How has partisanship changed as an indicator of voting behavior over time?
Partisanship has become a less predictable indicator of voting behavior.
66
What is one clear sign of this change in partisanship?
Declining membership figures of the main political parties, with only 1.0% of the electorate being members of the Labour, Conservative, or Liberal Democrat parties in 2015.
67
How have membership figures of the Labour and Conservative parties changed since the 1950s?
In the 1950s, the Labour Party had over a million members, compared to approximately 270,000 in 2015.
Similarly, the Conservative Party had almost 3 million members in the 1950s, compared to around 149,800 in 2013.
68
What term is used to describe many voters in modern politics?
Many voters are now classified as 'floating voters'.
69
How has the percentage of voters with no party identification changed over time?
The percentage of voters with no party identification has more than doubled from 8% in 1987 to 19% in 2014, according to the 2015 British Social Attitudes Survey.
70
What percentages of voters identified as supporters of the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties in May 2015?
In May 2015, polling by Ipsos Mori showed that 27% of voters identified as Conservative supporters, 31% as Labour, and 9% as Liberal Democrat.
71
What conclusion can be drawn from the polling data by Ipsos Mori?
The Conservatives were able to win over a number of floating voters, as suggested by receiving 36.9% of the vote despite having 27% of voters identifying as Conservative supporters.
72
According to a YouGov poll in April 2015, what was the most 'salient' issue for voters?
The most 'salient' issue for voters in 2015 was the economy.
73
How did perceptions of which party would best manage the economy change from previous years to 2015?
While Labour was considered the best party to manage the economy in 1997, 2001, and 2007, in 2015, 39% of voters felt that the Conservatives would manage the economy best, with only 21% saying Labour.
74
What was the second most salient issue according to the YouGov poll, and which party had the lead on it?
The second most salient issue was the NHS, and Labour had almost as big a lead on it.
75
What was the third most salient issue according to the YouGov poll, and what was the voter sentiment towards it?
The third most salient issue was immigration, and voters were much more divided on it, with many voters picking 'other' parties, predominantly UKIP.
76
How did Labour's stance on immigration impact the party's performance according to the Beckett report?
Labour's inability to project a strong stance on immigration allowed UKIP "to exploit the claim that the major parties were all out of touch on this issue," according to the Beckett report.
77
How did the fact that the Conservatives led on the economy but not on other salient issues correlate with their electoral performance?
The fact that the Conservatives led on the economy but not on other salient issues correlates with their slim majority win in 2015.
78
According to polls by Ipsos Mori, what were the perceptions of the Conservatives compared to Labour in terms of leadership and policies?
The Conservatives were considered to have a better team of leaders and better overall policies than Labour.
79
What did the public consider to be best for the economy, according to the Ipsos Mori polls?
The public considered that a Conservative majority would be best for the economy.
80
How did both parties exploit weaknesses in each other's reputations during the 2015 campaign?
Labour warned that a majority Conservative government would make even larger cuts to the NHS after the Coalition's spending cuts from 2010-15. Meanwhile, the Conservatives argued that electing Labour would be like "handing the keys back to the people who crashed the car."
81
What criticism did right-wing commentators make of Ed Miliband during the 2015 campaign?
Right-wing commentators made much of Ed Miliband's failure to mention the national deficit in his 2014 conference speech.
82
According to Labour's 2016 "Learning the Lessons from Defeat Taskforce Report" (the Beckett Report), what was one of the most commonly cited reasons for the party's defeat in the 2015 election?
ne of the most commonly cited reasons for the party's defeat was the "failure to shake off the myth that we were responsible for the financial crash and therefore failure to build trust in the economy," according to the Beckett Report.
83
How did Ed Miliband's approval ratings compare to David Cameron's during his time as party leader?
Ed Miliband struggled to win public approval and support, regularly polling far below David Cameron. In November 2014, Miliband's net approval rating dipped as low as -54, while Cameron's approval was 0.
84
What were Ed Miliband's and David Cameron's net approval ratings in April 2015?
In April 2015, Ed Miliband's net approval was at -18, while David Cameron's approval was 0.
85
How did Nick Clegg's approval ratings change from the 2010 to the 2015 election?
Despite his popularity during the 2010 election campaign, Nick Clegg's approval ratings dropped significantly by the 2015 election, falling from 68 to -36 by April 2015.
86
What were the results of an Ipsos Mori poll conducted on May 6th, 2015, regarding the public's opinion on the party leaders' suitability as Prime Minister?
The poll showed that 42% favored Cameron, 27% favored Miliband, and 6% favored Clegg as Prime Minister.
87
How did Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn's approval ratings compare in February 2017?
According to an Ipsos Mori poll in February 2017, Theresa May recorded a positive net approval rating of +17, while Jeremy Corbyn dropped to a negative net approval rating of -38.
88
What was the voting intention disparity between the Conservatives and Labour according to an ICM poll for The Guardian in February 2017?
The poll showed a near record 18-point lead for the Conservatives over Labour, with 44% intending to vote Conservative and 26% intending to vote Labour if a general election were to be held.
89
How was Ed Miliband portrayed by right-wing papers following his election as party leader?
Right-wing papers consistently portrayed Miliband as an extremely left-wing leader, characterizing him as "Red Ed" (Daily Mail), a socialist who was "dragging the party to the left".
90
What was the focus of The Sun's articles in England during the 2015 election campaign?
The Sun ran regular articles in England on the dangers of a Labour-SNP coalition.
91
How did the Scottish Sun differ from The Sun in its support during the 2015 election campaign?
The Scottish Sun supported the SNP as a "better" choice over Labour.
92
The Scottish Sun supported the SNP as a "better" choice over Labour.
In 2015, the vast majority of newspapers endorsed the Conservative party, with only 1 of the 8 major UK papers backing Labour.
93
What did research conducted throughout the campaign find regarding media coverage of Conservative and Labour sources?
Conservative sources were more frequently reported and quoted than their opponents.
94
What was the focus of media coverage during the campaign, according to the research?
There was more coverage of the economy, a Conservative strength, than other salient issues like the NHS and education, both Labour strengths.
95
What was net gain/loss of sets for Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP?
Conservatives +24
Labour -26
Lib Dems -49
SNP +50
96
How many people watched the first TV debate of 2015, and who participated?
The first TV debate of 2015 attracted an audience of 7 million people. The leaders of the 7 biggest parties in England, Scotland, and Wales took part.
97
Who was considered the winner of the first debate according to the final YouGov poll? How did other candidates perform?
According to the final YouGov poll, Nicola Sturgeon was considered the winner of the first debate with 28% of the vote. Nigel Farage came 2nd with 20%, Cameron 18% and Miliband 15%
98
What notable outcome resulted from Nicola Sturgeon's success in the first debate?
Nicola Sturgeon's success led to "can I vote for the SNP?" being the sixth most searched question on Google by the end of the evening.
99
How did the absence of David Cameron in the remaining debates affect the exposure of minority parties?
With David Cameron absent from the remaining debates, minority parties such as Plaid Cymru, UKIP, the Green Party, and the SNP received much greater exposure.
100
How did the share of the vote for Plaid Cymru, UKIP, the Green Party, and the SNP change from 2010?
All four parties increased their share of the vote from 2010 after participating in the debates.
101
According to a poll by Panelbase, what percentage of voters considered the TV debates to have influenced their voting intention?
According to the poll by Panelbase, 38% of voters considered the TV debates to have influenced their voting intention.
102
What does the sociological model of voting behavior emphasise?
The sociological model highlights primacy (long-term) factors and focuses on social groups and social characteristics as the main influences on how individuals vote.
103
According to the sociological model, what is a significant determinant of voting behavior?
Socialisation is seen as a significant determinant of voting behavior in the sociological model. It is the process through which an individual learns and develops their views from their family, friends, colleagues, and community.
104
Party identification model
This model sees voters as psychologically attached to a particular party, identifying
with them and supporting them in spite of any short-term factors.
105
What does the rational choice model of voting behavior propose?
The rational choice model suggests that voters may decide their vote by rationally comparing different parties, evaluating them based on a range of short-term factors rather than long-term sociological factors like class.
106
How has the timing of voter decision-making changed according to Ipsos Mori's analysis?
Ipsos Mori's analysis found that in April 1992, 81% of voters had already made their decision of who to vote for in May, while in mid-April 2015, only 60% had decided.
107
What does the spatial model of voting behavior suggest?
The spatial model suggests that some voters hold clear positions on divisive positional issues, such as taxes or EU membership, and they seek a party that aligns with their positions by examining manifestos or listening to party leaders explain their stances in TV debates.
108
What does the valence model of voting behavior suggest?
The valence model suggests that some voters prioritize positive outcomes such as economic growth or lower unemployment over specific policy positions. They base their vote on which party appears most capable of delivering these outcomes, considering factors like the party's leader, reputation, branding, and media coverage.
