4.4 - The Financial Sector Content Flashcards

(124 cards)

1
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is a financial market

A

Any place or system that provides buyers and sellers the means to exchange goods/services and trade financial instruments

  • These include bonds, equities, international currencies, and derivatives
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2
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4.4 - The Financial Sector

What are the Key Roles of Financial Markets

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  • Facilitate savings - It lets people shift spending power to the future through assets like savings accounts, stocks, and shares.
  • Lend to businesses and individuals.
  • Facilitate payment systems.
  • Provide forward markets. - This is where firms are able to buy and sell in the future at a set price - exists for commodtities and in foreign exchange and helps to provide stability
  • Provide a market for shares (equities).
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3
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What regulations can be introduced to regulate the financial market?

A
  • Banning market rigging - jail sentences
  • Liquidity ratios,
  • Preventing the sale of unsuitable products
  • Maximum interest rates to prevent consumer exploitation and prevent excessively risky lending
  • Deposit insurance to protect consumer reposits.
  • Cap on bonuses
  • Structural Separation: Ring-fencing retail and investment banking (e.g., UK’s Vickers Report)
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4
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What types of financial market are there

A
  • Bond Market – 2021 estimated that global corporate bond market worth $10 trillion
  • Stock Market – Overseas firms can list on the UK stock market
  • Currency Market – Trade in currency markets traded $6.6 trillion per day in 2021
  • Mortgage Market - there are 11 million outstanding mortgages in the UK as of May 2021
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5
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

How do Businesses use Financial Markets

A
  • To finance a business start-up – hundreds of thousands per year, over a thousand per day on average
  • Finance a merger or a takeover – value of M&A in 2019 amounted to $3.7 trillion
  • Finance Capital investment – in 2019 business investment grew by 1.8%
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6
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is the money market

A
  • The money market is a financial market for short-term, highly liquid debt securities.
  • It includes instruments like Treasury bills, commercial paper, and certificates of deposit.
  • Participants include banks, financial institutions, and corporations seeking short-term financing or investments.
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7
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is the capital market

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  • The capital market deals with long-term debt and equity securities.
  • It encompasses the primary market (where new securities are issued – for example when a business floats on one or more stock markets) and the secondary market (where existing securities such as bonds and shares are traded).
  • Securities in the capital market include stocks, bonds, and real estate investments.
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8
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is the Foreign Exchange Market

A
  • The foreign exchange market is where currencies are bought and sold.
  • It facilitates international trade and investment by enabling the exchange of one currency for another.
  • The forex market operates 24/5 and is decentralized.
  • The most heavily traded currency is the US dollar ($)
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9
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

How is the money supply measured?

A

Money supply measures total available money, categorized by liquidity:

  • M1 (Narrow): Physical currency + checking deposits (liquid, daily transactions).
  • M2/M3 (Broad): Savings/time deposits, near-money (less liquid)

Total = M1 + Broad aggregates (M2, M3, etc.).

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10
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is digital money

A
  • Digital money, also known as electronic money or digital currency, refers to a form of currency that exists solely in electronic or digital form.
  • It does not have a physical counterpart like paper money or coins.
  • Digital money is used for various types of transactions, including online purchases, electronic fund transfers, digital payments, and peer-to-peer transfers.
  • It has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of e-commerce, digital banking, and the development of new financial technologies.
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11
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What explains the growth of digital money

A
  • Convenience: Digital money provides unparalleled convenience for conducting transactions. Eliminating the need for physical cash or in-person visits to banks. Mobile money technologies have accelerated.
  • Globalization: Digital money facilitates rapid cross-border payments.
  • Security: Many digital money systems incorporate robust security measures, including encryption and authentication, to protect users’ financial information. These security features reduce the risk of fraud, theft, and counterfeiting.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic prompted more people to embrace contactless payment methods to reduce the risk of virus transmission.
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12
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is Equity Finance

A

Finance from shareholders the issue of new shares/stocks which carry voting rights

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13
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is Debt Finance

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Borrowing money – requires paying interest (on loans) and may also need security

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14
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is the difference between Debt and Equity

A

Debt: Debt represents borrowing by individuals or organizations.

  • It involves periodic interest payments and repayment of the principal amount at maturity.
  • Bondholders are creditors with a claim on the issuer’s assets but no ownership stake.

Equity: Equity represents ownership in a business or an asset.

  • Equity holders are shareholders or owners who have a residual claim on the assets and earnings of a company.
  • Equity securities include common stock and preferred stock.

Tax Treatment: Interest on debt is tax-deductible; dividends on equity are not

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15
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What are bonds

A

Corporate Bonds – From a company (lending money to a firm)
Government Bonds – From a government (lending money to government)

  1. Bond is a loan
  2. Repaid when the bond matures
  3. Also pays annual interest
  4. Market trades the bond after issue
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16
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

How are bond prices affected by changes in market interest rates?

A

Bond prices and market interest rates are inversely related. When market interest rates rise above a bond’s coupon rate, the bond’s fixed payments become less attractive than those of newer issues, causing its price to fall. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the fixed payments become more appealing, and the bond’s price rises.

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17
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What is a bond yield, and how is it calculated?

A

A bond yield is the bond’s coupon expressed as a percentage of its current market price. For example, if a bond pays a coupon of £1,000 and its current market price is £20,000, the yield is
£1,000/£20,000 x 100 = 5%
.

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18
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

Why do bond prices drop when interest rates rise?

A

New bonds offer higher coupons, making existing bonds with lower fixed payments less desirable, reducing their market price.

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19
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

Reasons why 10-year bond yields differ between countries

A
  • Inflation risk: Countries with higher actual and expected inflation will have higher bond yields to compensate investors for the expected loss of real purchasing power.
  • Default risk: Countries with higher national debt or and/or persistently large fiscal deficits will usually have higher bond yields as investors demand compensation for the increased risk of default.
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20
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

Likely economic effects of a rise in bond yields on government debt for a country such as the UK

A
  • Higher debt servicing costs: Rising yields force the UK to pay more interest on new and refinanced debt, risking cuts to public services (e.g., NHS) or tax hikes.
  • Currency appreciation: Higher yields attract foreign investors, strengthening the £GBP and making UK exports (e.g., machinery, services) less competitive globally.
  • Crowding out: Increased borrowing costs for businesses and households could slow private investment, weakening economic growth.
  • Debt spiral risk: If markets lose confidence in UK debt sustainability, rising yields could worsen deficits, triggering a self-reinforcing cycle.
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21
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What are Investment Banks

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  • Role – Investment banks specialize in activities related to capital markets, such as underwriting securities, facilitating mergers and acquisitions, and providing services to corporations
  • Customer Focus – Investment banks primarily serve corporations, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals
  • Regulation - They are subject to different regulations than commercial banks, often with a focus on securities and financial market operations
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22
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

How do investment banks make a profit

A
  • Underwriting – assist in raising capital by underwriting securities offering (such as IPO). Buy securities from issue at discount price and sell to public at higher price, profiting from price difference
  • Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory – Provide advisory services. Earn fees as a percentage of the transaction value.
  • Trading and sales – Engaged in trading activities in various financial markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and derivatives
  • Asset Management – Manage investment portfolios for clients. Charge management frees as a percentage of the assets under management. Also performance fees based on investment returns.
  • Market Making: Holding assets to buy/sell instantly, profiting from bid-ask spreads.
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23
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What were the consequences of financial market deregulation (post-1970s) on banking?

A

Integration: Commercial/investment banks merged (e.g., Barclays), using stable deposits for riskier investment banking.
Growth: Expanded investment banking, jobs, and services exports.
Risk: Financial deregulation fosters interconnected risk-taking (e.g., Lehman Brothers’ 2008 collapse), where one firm’s failure cascades through the sector via debt links and speculative instruments, threatening widespread economic collapse. Reduced oversight amplifies moral hazard and opaque risks, destabilizing the entire financial system.

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24
Q

4.4 - The Financial Sector

What are Hedge Funds

A

Pooling money from a group of investors and use investment strategies to generate returns. Aim to generate returns that are not correlated to overall market and often considered to be high risk, high reward investment option
Key characteristics

  • Limited number of investors - Typically have a limited number of investors, often have high minimum investment amount
  • Diversified investment strategies - Wide range of strategies including long and short position, derivate contracts and leverage.
  • Use of leverage – Use leverage to increase potential returns, but this can also increase the risk.
  • High fees - Charge high fees, typically a percentage of assets under management plus a performance fee based on returns
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What are Commercial Banks
* Banks are licensed deposit-takers providing a range of savings accounts * They are licensed to lend money and thereby create money via new bank loans, overdrafts and mortgages * A commercial bank's business model relies on charging a higher interest rate on loans (or other assets) than the rate it pays out on deposits (or other liabilities) * This spread on assets and liabilities pays the operating expenses of a bank and helps them to make a profit
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are Leveraged Loans
Leveraged loans are loans provided to companies with a high level of debt compared to their equity. These loans are typically used by companies with lower credit ratings and are issued by private equity firms or hedge funds rather than traditional banks. The key characteristics of leveraged loans are: 1. High debt-to-equity ratio: The company borrowing the loan has a high amount of debt compared to its equity, making it riskier for lenders. 1. Floating interest rates: The interest rates on leveraged loans are often variable, which means they can change over time. 1. Higher risk: Leveraged loans carry a higher risk of default, which is why they often have higher interest rates and fees than traditional loans.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the main functions of Commerical Banks
* **Accepting Deposits**: Commercial banks offer safe and easily accessible deposit accounts, including savings accounts, checking accounts, and fixed deposits. * **Providing Loans**: They extend credit to individuals and businesses for various purposes, such as mortgages, business loans, and personal loans. * **Payment Services**: Commercial banks facilitate payment and fund transfer services through checks, electronic funds transfers, and online banking. * **Safekeeping of Valuables**: Some commercial banks offer safe deposit boxes for customers to store valuable items securely. * **Currency Exchange**: They provide foreign exchange services to facilitate international trade and travel. * **Financial Services Advice**: Provide insurance, mortgage, and investment guidance (e.g., budgeting, creditworthiness checks).
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the Assets of Commercial Banks
* **Cash and Reserves** - Funds held in the central bank or as cash on hand * **Loans and Advances** - The money lent out to borrowers * **Investments** - Securities held by the bank, such as government bonds or corporate bonds
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the Liabilities of Commercial Banks
* **Deposits** - Funds held in customer accounts * **Borrowings** - Funds borrowed from other financial institutions * **Capital** - The bank's equity, including share and retained earnings
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector How commercial banks create credit
* **Fractional Reserve System**: Banks create credit by using the fractional reserve system, where they are required to hold only a fraction of their deposits as cash / liquid reserves and can lend out the rest. * **Money Multiplier Effect**: When banks lend out a portion of the funds deposited with them, these funds are deposited in other banks, creating a chain reaction of lending and increasing the money supply. * **Credit Creation Process**: As banks make loans, they effectively create new money in the form of additional deposits. This process multiplies the initial deposit and contributes to economic activity measured by GDP
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Limits to credit creation by banks
* **Market forces** – the profitable lending opportunities to businesses and households can often fluctuate for example at different stages of the cycle * The **risks** of lending including default risk from the borrower * **Regulatory policies** such as minimum capital reserve requirements as part of regular bank stress tests * **Monetary policy** - level of policy interest rates set by the Bank of England influences total demand for loans
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector How commercial banks make profit
* **Interest-rate spreads** - Charging a higher interest rate on loans than the rate paid to savers * **Service Fees** – Fees charged when arranging business & personal loans * **Brokerage percentages** – Many banks provide currency and share-dealing services and charge a brokerage fee for doing so
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is a Non-Performing Loan
A non-performing loan (NPL) is a loan where the borrower has stopped making payments and is in default. The loan is considered non-performing when it is more than 90 days overdue. NPLs are a major concern for commercial banks because they represent a loss of revenue and can also have negative effects on the bank's capital and liquidity.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Factors causing high non-performing loans
* **Economic downturns**: During economic downturns, businesses and individuals may struggle to repay their loans, leading to an increase in NPLs. * **Industry-specific issues**: Certain industries, such as construction may be more prone to NPLs due to the cyclical nature of their business. * **Credit standards**: When commercial banks loosen their credit standards, they may lend to riskier borrowers, leading to a higher probability of defaults. * **Fraud**: Some borrowers may intentionally default on their loans through fraudulent behaviour, such as falsifying financial information to obtain loans they can't repay. This is a type of financial market failure.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Trade-off between Liquidity and Profitability
Banks must balance holding liquid assets to meet deposit withdrawals and fund operations with investing in higher-yield, often less liquid assets for profit. Higher liquidity ensures safety and quick access to funds but typically offers lower returns, while investing in less liquid assets can boost earnings yet increases risk. This trade-off is further managed by regulations, such as minimum liquidity requirements imposed by central banks, to safeguard customer deposits and maintain overall financial stability.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Causes of Commercial Bank Failures
* **Poor management**: This can include taking on too much risk, making bad loans * **Lack of diversification** in the bank’s loan portfolio - for example, excessive lending to the volatile property market. * **Insufficient reserves to cover bad loans**: Banks must set aside a certain amount of money to cover the possibility of loan defaults * **Run on the bank**: A bank can fail if too many depositors withdraw their money at the same time, this is called a run on the bank. * **Economic downturns**: Recessions can lead to an increase in loan defaults and a decrease in the value of the bank's assets * **Regulatory failure**: Inadequate regulatory oversight can lead to risky practices, fraud and corruption, and ultimately bank failure.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Examples of Commerical Bank Failures
* **Northern Rock**: This bank failed in 2007. The government had to step in and nationalize the bank in 2008. It was eventually sold to other investors including Virgin Money. * **RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland)**: RBS required a government bailout in 2008 due to its exposure to bad loans and toxic assets. The government took a majority stake in the bank, and it eventually returned to private ownership.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is a Credit Crunch
1. A credit crunch, also known as a **credit squeeze**, is a period when the availability of credit from banks decreases, making it harder for individuals and businesses to borrow money. 1. During a credit crunch, lending institutions may become more **risk-averse** and increase their lending standards, making it more difficult for borrowers such as households and businesses to qualify for new loans or to extend their existing debts. 1. Banks may also **call back loans** or reduce credit lines for existing borrowers. This can lead to a decrease in consumer spending and capital investment, which can slow down AD and perhaps cause a recession. 2. **Example**: 2007-2009 crisis saw banks like Lehman collapse, causing global lending freezes.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What occured during the Credit Crunch of 2007-2009
The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the **subprime mortgage market** in the United States, which led to a decline in the value of mortgage-backed securities held by banks and other financial institutions around the world. This caused a **decrease in the availability of credit** and shortly after, an economic recession. Commercial banks became more **risk-averse** and tightened their lending standards, making it harder for individuals and businesses to borrow money. **Credit supply contracted**
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Arguments for allowing banks to fail
1. **Encourages Market Discipline**: Creates an incentive for financial institutions to adopt sound lending models and **avoid high leverage** 1. **Promotes Competition**: Challenger banks can step in whereas bail outs make financial markets less contestable – which is bad for customers in long run 1. **Avoids Moral Hazard**: Government bailouts create a **moral hazard** by providing a **safety net** for banks, which may encourage them to take on excessive risk, knowing that they will be rescued in the event of failure. 1. **Protects Taxpayers**: Bailing out failing banks can be costly to taxpayers. Allowing banks to fail means that losses are absorbed by shareholders and creditors of the bank, not taxpayers.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Justifications for Bank Bail-outs
1. **Preventing Systemic Risk**: A bailout of a failing bank can prevent a bank run, which can trigger a domino effect leading to the failure of other banks in the financial system, creating a systemic risk 1. **Protecting Depositors**: Bailing out a bank can protect depositors' savings and reduce the risk of them losing their money. Deposits in UK banks are insured up to a certain amount. 1. **Externalities from financial market failure**: There are negative externalities from allowing a systemic banking failure – justifies intervention and regulatory reforms
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Market Failure
Market failure happens when the price mechanism fails to allocate scarce resources efficiently or when the operation of market forces lead to a net social welfare loss.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the main causes of financial market failure
1. Externalities from financial instability 1. Monopoly power in financial markets 1. Market rigging 1. Speculative bubbles/irrational behaviour 1. Moral hazard and attitudes to risk 1. Asymmetric information and complexity
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are Speculative Bubbles
A bubble exists when the market price of a financial asset is driven above what it should be such as a speculative boom in housing, crypto, NFTs, commodities or share prices. Speculation can be amplified by herd behaviour where many people take the same decision.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are some examples of financial bubbles
* Gold rushes in the late 19th century * Real estate bubbles * Dot com boom from 1997-2000 * Crypto-currencies
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the 5 stages of a financial bubble
1. **Displacement stage** - excitement grows about a new product/emerging technology 1. **Prices boom** as demand surges + limited (inelastic) supply causing market prices to spike higher 1. **Euphoria** as more investors look to take advantage (Robert Shiller calls this "irrational exuberance") 1. **Profit taking stage** – some investors sell as they realise prices are out of line with fundamentals 1. **Panic** - the herd mentality switches to desperate selling and prices fall fast inflicting big losses **Example**: Dot-com bubble (1997-2000) followed these stages
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Explain Herd Behaviour during a bubble
Herd behaviour is where individuals act in a certain way because they believe that others are acting in the same way, even if it may not be the most rational decision. * **Fear of missing out (FOMO)** - investors may feel a sense of urgency to participate in the rally, even if it is not based on sound analysis. * **Availability bias** - investors may place too much emphasis on recent information and ignore longer-term trends. * **Overconfidence** - investors may overestimate their ability to predict the market and make riskier investments. * **Social influence** - investors may be influenced by the actions of others in their social network or by media coverage
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Hot-Hand Fallacy during a Bubble
* The hot-hand fallacy is a cognitive bias that leads investors to believe that a series of successful investments is indicative of future success, even if it may be due to luck or randomness. * During a financial bubble, investors may become overconfident and continue to make investments based on the assumption that their previous success will continue. This can lead to over-investment in a particular asset, creating a bubble that is not sustainable in the long run. * The hot-hand fallacy can lead to irrational decision-making, as investors fail to recognize that their previous successes may not be predictive of future outcomes. This can result in significant losses when the bubble eventually bursts and the underlying asset's value plummets.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Irrational Exuberance
* In his book "Irrational Exuberance," Robert Shiller coined the term to describe the tendency of investors to become overly optimistic during economic booms, leading to a financial bubble. * Shiller argues that this exuberance can cause investors to ignore risks and make irrational investment decisions, leading to a bubble that eventually bursts, causing significant losses. * The concept of irrational exuberance is particularly relevant during periods of rapid economic growth, where investors can become overly confident and lose their ability to accurately assess the risks involved in investments.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Prospect Theory
**Prospect Theory** (Kahneman & Tversky) argues investors make irrational choices during financial bubbles by: * **Framing decisions around gains vs. losses:** They overvalue potential profits (e.g., "This stock could double!") and downplay risks (overweighting gains). * **Loss aversion**: Fear of losses outweighs desire for gains, leading to: * *Risk-taking*: Chasing high returns (e.g., buying overvalued assets). * *Holding too long*: Refusing to sell declining assets to avoid "locking in" losses. * **Result**: Overconfidence and herd behavior inflate bubbles. When the bubble bursts, loss-averse investors panic, deepening crashes (e.g., 2008 housing crisis). **Key insight**: Emotions distort rational risk assessment, fueling instability.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Market Rigging
* Manipulating the market to make a gain at the expense of others. * Eg. Insider trading - using confidential information to buy or sell shares to your advantage. Causes misallocation of resources * For example if high profits of a firm are about to be announced, those with inside information can buy the shares first before the information is public * Banks can also collude to fix interest rates. (RBS and Barclays} * Example: LIBOR scandal (2008) where banks manipulated interest rates for profit. * 2014 Forex Rigging: UK/US fined banks £2.6bn for colluding on currency trades. Traders exploited client data for personal bonuses (e.g., RBS, HSBC)
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Asymmetric Information
Occurs when there is imbalance in information between agents. For example, financial markets often use complex information – a borrower (such as a small business) has better information on whether they can afford to repay a loan than the lender.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Insider Information
Insider information is confidential, non-public data (e.g., mergers, earnings) that unfairly benefits traders. Using it (insider trading) is illegal, as it distorts market fairness, leading to fines, jail, or reputational harm. Laws prohibit exploiting undisclosed info to protect equal investor access. Key: Unethical advantage → legal penalties.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Where does Asymmetric Information appear in the Banking System
* **Credit risk**: Banks may have incomplete information about the creditworthiness of borrowers, which can lead to risky lending decisions. This can result in loan defaults and financial losses for the bank. * **Rating agencies**: Banks rely on rating agencies to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers and investments, but these agencies may not always have complete or accurate information. This can lead to inaccurate ratings and further misinformation in the market.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Asymmetric Information in Insurance
* **Adverse selection**: Insurers may not have complete information about the riskiness of policyholders, which can lead to higher premiums or lower coverage. Policyholders may also have an incentive to conceal information about their risk level, leading to more adverse selection. * **Real-World Impact**: US health insurance premiums rose 55% (2007-2017) due to adverse selection. * **Moral hazard**: Insurance may lead to increased risk-taking by policyholders, since they are shielded from the full costs of their actions. For example, a driver with collision insurance may drive more recklessly than one without insurance.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is a Moral Hazard
Moral hazard exists in a market where an individual or organisation takes greater risks than they should do because they know that they are either covered by insurance, or that a government will protect them from any damage incurred as a result of those risks. For example, creditors might be insured from risk by prospects of a government (state) bail-out. Bail-outs may encourage risker behaviour Eurozone Example: Greece assumed EU bailouts, leading to unsustainable deficits. Mervyn King (2007): 'Liquidity support undermines risk pricing... sows seeds of future crises.'
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is Financial Crisis
A financial crisis is a major disturbance / shock to financial markets, associated typically with falling asset prices and insolvency amongst debtors and intermediaries, which ramifies throughout the financial system, disrupting the market’s capacity to allocate financial capital.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the 5 types of Financial Crisis
* **Currency crisis** when a fixed exchange rate regime collapses, or a currency goes into a free-fall (depreciating rapidly) * **External debt crisis** – when a country cannot attract the capital needed to finance a current account deficit * **Sovereign debt crisis** – when a government cannot afford to pay the interest on their existing debts * **Banking crisis** – when stability of banking system is low leading to a sharp rise in savings deposits and possible run-on banks * **Broad financial crisi**s – which combines elements of all the above
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are some examples of recent financial crisis
* **The Venezuelan crisis (ongoing)** - an economic collapse characterized by hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and political instability. * **The Turkish currency crisis (2018)** - a sharp decline in the value of the Turkish lira, caused by economic mismanagement and political tensions with the United States.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are some examples of recent banking crisis
* **USA financial crisis (2007-2008)** - known as the "global financial crisis," was caused by a collapse in the housing market and a wave of mortgage defaults. * **Greek banking crisis (2012-2015)** - caused by the country's debt crisis and the imposition of strict austerity measures, leading to a run on the banks and a loss of confidence in the Greek banking system.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the Main Causes of Financial Crises
* Financial market failures / behavioural finance * “Irrational exuberance” among investors – see the work of Robert Shiller * Increased complexity arising from financial innovation – such as mortgage bonds * The Minsky Hypothesis – where “financial stability breeds instability” * Macroeconomic and financial policy failures * Unintended consequences of financial deregulation as a supply-side policy * Banks too big to fail? Ever-riskier behaviour due to moral hazard * Failures of credit ratings agencies in pricing risk accurately * Structural changes in the global economy including economic imbalances including global savings glut and extended period of low /negative real interest rates * **Macro Effects**: Austerity policies, underemployment, youth unemployment, regional GDP disparities (e.g., UK’s 6% GDP drop 2008-09).
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What triggered the USA Subprime Mortgage Crisis in the early 2000s? | US Financial crisis
Many US banks began offering mortgages to subprime borrowers by relaxing lending standards. This led to a rapid rise in housing prices followed by mass defaults as the market collapsed. Mechanism: Securitization of subprime mortgages into CDOs (collateralized debt obligations).
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector How did the issuance of subprime mortgages affect housing prices? | US Financial crisis
The increased issuance of subprime mortgages drove housing prices up rapidly; however, when the market reversed, the high prices and defaults contributed to a major financial collapse.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What were the key contributing factors to the subprime crisis? | US Financial crisis
The crisis was fueled by: * Relaxed lending standards and packaging risky mortgages into securities. * Speculation in the housing market, leading to overvaluation of properties. * The use of complex financial instruments paired with a lack of transparency in financial markets. * CDOs: Toxic assets spread risk globally, causing interbank distrust and credit freezes
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What deregulation event contributed to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2010? | US Financial crisis
The repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which allowed banks to engage in riskier behaviors by mixing commercial and investment banking, was a significant factor.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector How did easy credit help trigger the Global Financial Crisis | US Financial crisis
Low interest rates and loose lending standards created an environment rich in easy credit, which led to a flood of subprime mortgages and toxic loans, ultimately fueling a housing bubble.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What role did credit rating agencies play in the Global Financial Crisis? | US Financial crisis
Credit rating agencies, such as Moody's and S&P, gave high ratings to junk securities—often backed by subprime mortgages—misleading investors about their safety.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the primary function of credit rating agencies | US Financial crisis
They assess the creditworthiness of companies, governments, and other entities by assigning ratings (from AAA to D) that indicate the likelihood of debt repayment, which investors use to gauge risk.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the main criticisms levied against credit rating agencies during the Global Financial Crisis? | US Financial crisis
They were criticized for: * Overrating subprime mortgage-backed securities, which later were downgraded. * Conflicts of interest due to payment by the banks issuing the securities. * A slow reaction in downgrading risky securities as the housing market deteriorated.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Why is the method of payment for credit rating agencies considered problematic? | US Financial crisis
Because the agencies are paid by the entities they rate, this can create a conflict of interest and may incentivize inflated ratings to preserve business relationships.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Reasons why commercial banks such as Northern Rock can fail
* **Losses**: If people default on loans, a bank will suffer losses that erodes capital reserves and reduces its ability to lend. Investors may be unwilling to cover losses. * **Liquidity**: If a bank sees a sudden loss of confidence from depositors and investors, they may struggle to obtain fresh funding in the interbank market and face liquidity problems. This can cause a run on the bank.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector In the context of financial markets, what is meant by “systemic risk”?
Systemic risk is when the **failure of a single financial institution** leads to a **contagion effect** that spreads throughout the financial system and beyond, affecting the stability of the system perhaps **creating a wider crisis**.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Possible consequences for the economy of bank failures
* **Credit crunch** - where businesses and households find it difficult to obtain loans, which can in turn lead to a decline in capital investment by businesses and consumption causing weaker real economic growth. * **Fiscal effects** - Rising national debt if commercial banks are wholly or partially bailed-out by the government. This can lead to higher interest rates on bonds & more expensive mortgages and a medium-term rise in taxes * **Negative Multiplier Effect**: Job losses in unrelated sectors due to reduced lending * **Case Study**: Northern Rock (2007) collapsed due to liquidity shortages, causing the first UK bank run in 150 years.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector One argument for bailing out commercial banks who fail + One argument for letting banks fail
**For** * A bail-out can limit wider systemic risks and mitigate the negative consequences for the real economy. It can prevent negative externalities. **Against** * Letting banks fail can promote market discipline and prevent moral hazard. It encourages creative destruction as new banks and banking models replace failed institutions.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Distinguish between credit risk and liquidity risk for a bank
* **Credit risk** is the risk that a borrower will fail to repay their debt (bad debts) * **Liquidity risk** is when a bank does not have enough cash or liquid assets to repay depositors and other creditors if they want their money back.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the definition of a central bank
A central bank is the monetary authority and major regulatory bank in a country. A central bank is responsible for monetary policy and maintaining financial stability. Examples of central banks * Bank of England (UK) * European Central Bank (ECB) for all member nations of the Euro Area * United States Federal Reserve (The Fed) * Bank of Japan (BOJ)
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are the main roles of Central Banks
* **Setting interest rates**: Central banks adjust interest rates to control inflation and promote economic growth. * **Regulating banks**: They regulate banks to ensure they are financially sound and to protect depositors. * **Maintaining financial stability**: They act as a lender of last resort, providing liquidity to financial institutions in times of crisis. * **Issuing currency**: They are responsible for issuing and managing the country's currency. This might involve operating with a managed floating exchange rate. * **Conducting research**: They conduct research and provide advice to policymakers * UK Structure: FPC (systemic risk), PRA (bank stability), FCA (consumer protection).
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the Base interest rate
The main interest rate set by a nation’s central bank. This is the rate of interest charged to commercial banks if they must borrow from the central bank when short of liquidity. Market interest rates often take their cue from changes in the Base Interest Rate.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are some factors considered when setting Base Rate
* Rate of growth of real GDP and the estimated size of the output gap * Forecasts for price inflation * Rate of growth of wages and other business costs * Movements in a country’s exchange rate * Rate of growth of asset prices such as house prices * Movements in consumer and business confidence * External factors such as global energy prices and inflation in other countries * Financial market conditions including the rate of growth of credit / money
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the Lender of Last Resort Function
Lender of last resort is a role central banks play in times of financial distress. When other financial institutions are unable to provide loans, the central bank steps in to lend money to banks and other financial institutions. This prevents liquidity crises and helps to maintain financial stability. * **Emergency lending**: Central banks provide emergency loans to financial institutions in times of crisis to prevent their collapse and limit systemic risk. * **Discount window**: They also provide short-term loans to banks at a slightly higher interest rate than the market rate. This is known as the discount window. * **Collateral requirements**: Central banks require collateral from financial institutions as a condition for lending. This helps to mitigate the risk of default. * **Reputation**: Central banks are known as the lender of last resort due to their ability to provide loans in times of crisis, which can help to prevent financial panics.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What are two examples of Lender of Last Resort
* In 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB) provided emergency loans to banks in the eurozone to help stabilize the region's financial system. * In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks around the world acted as lenders of last resort to support their economies. For example, the Bank of England provided emergency loans to UK businesses and the Reserve Bank of India provided liquidity to Indian banks.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What roles does the central bank have as banker to the government
* **Issuing government bonds**: Central banks can issue and sell government bonds on behalf of the government to finance its budget and borrow money. * **Managing government debt**: Central banks can help governments manage their debt by buying and selling government bonds in the market, helping to stabilize prices and maintain liquidity. * **Providing advice**: Central banks often provide economic and financial advice to governments, helping them to make informed decisions about fiscal policy and other issues.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Two roles of the Central Bank in the United Kingdom
* **Operation of monetary policy** – setting base interest rates to meet the inflation target (2%). No direct intervention in the exchange rate – the UK operates a free-floating currency * **Lender of last resort** to the financial system during a liquidity crisis / credit crunch.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Two possible consequences for financial markets of a large increase in the size of quantitative easing (QE) by the UK central bank.
* **Lower interest rates**: By purchasing large amounts of government bonds, the central bank increases demand for these assets, which pushes up their prices and reduces their yields. This can lead to a fall in mortgage interest rates and corporate bond interest rates * **Currency depreciation**: Another effect of a large increase in QE by the UK central bank might be a depreciation of the currency. QE increases the money supply and some of this extra liquidity will leave the UK economy – sterling is sold – causing the pound to fall
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
* **Regulation and Supervision**: The FCA is responsible for regulating commercial banks, investment firms, insurance companies, asset managers, and consumer credit providers. It sets regulatory rules and standards for these firms, conducts prudential supervision, and ensures that they comply with applicable regulations. * **Consumer Protection**: The FCA focuses on protecting consumers by ensuring that financial products and services are fair, transparent, and not misleading. It enforces rules on consumer protection, including those related to the sale of financial products, conduct of business, and treating customers fairly. * **Market Supervision**: The FCA actively monitors financial markets to identify risks and emerging issues * **Deregulation**: Reduces barriers for challenger banks to boost competition
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector What is the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)
* **Prudential Supervision**: The PRA is responsible for prudential supervision of banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers, and designated investment firms. Prudential supervision involves assessing and ensuring the financial soundness of these institutions to prevent financial instability. * **Setting and Enforcing Prudential Standards**: The PRA establishes prudential standards and requirements that financial institutions must adhere to. These standards encompass capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance, and other aspects of an institution's financial stability. The PRA enforces these standards to ensure that financial firms maintain appropriate levels of financial resources to withstand economic and financial shocks.
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# 4.4 - The Financial Sector Ways in which financial regulators can reduce the risk of commercial bank failures in a country such as the UK
* **Prudential regulation**: Require banks to maintain adequate capital to absorb potential losses and withstand adverse economic conditions. Use of stress tests. * **Direct interventions**: Setting maximum loan to valuation ratios in the mortgage market. Increasing the cash-to-deposits ratio for a commercial bank.
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What is the purpose of banning market rigging, and how does it protect stakeholders?
**Purpose**: To prevent collusion, manipulation of interest/exchange rates, and artificial price-fixing (e.g., LIBOR scandal). **Mechanism**: Regulatory bodies (e.g., FCA, SEC) monitor trades and enforce penalties for unethical practices. **Impact**: Ensures rates/prices reflect free-market forces, protecting consumers, businesses, and institutions from exploitation. **Example**: Post-2008 reforms penalized banks for rigging Forex and LIBOR rates.
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Why regulate the sale of financial products, and what are real-world examples?
**Purpose**: Stop firms from selling complex or unnecessary products (e.g., Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) mis-selling in the UK). **Mechanism**: Regulations like MiFID II require firms to assess customer suitability and provide clear information. **Impact**: Protects consumers from products that harm welfare (e.g., selling life insurance to individuals with no dependents). **Example**: UK banks paid £38 billion in PPI compensation by 2020.
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What are the pros and cons of capping interest rates in capital markets?
**Pros**: * Protects borrowers (e.g., households with mortgages) from predatory lending. * Reduces banks’ incentives for high-risk loans (e.g., subprime mortgages). **Cons**: * May restrict credit access for high-risk borrowers. * Can discourage banks from lending in underserved markets. **Example**: EU’s 2014 caps on payday loan interest rates.
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What are the arguments for and against financial deregulation?
**Pros**: * Reduces bureaucracy (e.g., easier to start/close banks). * Boosts competition, lowering borrowing costs and raising savings rates. **Cons**: * Increases systemic risk (e.g., 2008 crisis linked to relaxed lending rules). * May enable reckless behavior (e.g., Lehman Brothers’ collapse). **Example**: The 1986 "Big Bang" deregulation in London spurred growth but contributed to later instability.
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How do deposit insurance schemes stabilize the banking sector?
**Mechanism**: Government-backed protection (e.g., UK’s FSCS covers up to £85k per account). **Purpose**: Prevents bank runs by assuring savers their funds are safe. **Impact**: Maintains public confidence even during crises (e.g., 2007 Northern Rock collapse). **Global Example**: US FDIC insures up to $250k per depositor.
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Why separate commercial and investment banking?
* **Purpose**: Isolate household deposits from risky trading activities to prevent systemic collapse. * **Mechanism**: UK’s 2013 Vickers Report mandated structural separation (e.g., HSBC’s ring-fenced UK bank). * **Impact**: Reduces contagion risk (e.g., 2008 crisis where commingled funds led to bailouts).
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What role do central banks play in preventing liquidity crises?
* **Function**: Provide emergency liquidity (e.g., BOE’s 2008 £185bn bailout). * **Conditions**: Loans require collateral and carry penalty interest rates (Bagehot’s Rule). * **Impact**: Prevents solvent-but-illiquid banks from failing (e.g., saved Barclays during 2008).
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How do Basel I standards reduce banking risk?
* **Core Principle**: Minimum capital requirements (e.g., 8% capital-to-risk-weighted-assets ratio). * **Purpose**: Ensure banks can absorb losses and avoid insolvency. * **Limitation**: Overly simplistic—ignored operational and market risk, leading to Basel II/III reforms. * **Criticism**: Overlooked operational risk, leading to Basel II/III reforms
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How does the cash ratio safeguard banks?
* **Formula**: Cash Assets (cash + reserves) ÷ Current Liabilities (deposits + short-term borrowing). * **Purpose**: Ensures immediate liquidity to meet withdrawals (e.g., bank runs). * **Limitation**: No Basel mandate—varies by country (e.g., India’s 4% cash reserve ratio).
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What is the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio?
* **Formula**: High-Quality Liquid Assets ÷ Net Cash Outflows (30-day stress scenario). * **Requirement**: 100% coverage by 2019 (e.g., banks hold gov. bonds to cover liabilities). * **Impact**: Prevents repeat of 2008 liquidity freezes (e.g., Lehman’s illiquid mortgage assets).
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How do reserve requirements affect bank stability?
* **Mechanism**: Central banks (e.g., BOE) mandate a % of deposits held as reserves. * **Purpose**: Limits lending excesses and ensures liquidity. * **Example**: The Fed’s 0% reserve requirement post-2020 vs. China’s 12.5% ratio.
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How did deregulation contribute to the 2008 financial crisis?
**Cause**: Repeal of Glass-Steagall (1999) allowed banks to gamble with deposits. **Outcome**: Risky mortgage-backed securities led to collapses (e.g., Bear Stearns). **Reform**: Post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act reintroduced safeguards (e.g., Volcker Rule).
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What is the difference between the capital ratio and the leverage ratio in banking regulation?
* **Capital Ratio**: Measures capital (shareholder funds + retained profit) as a proportion of risk-weighted assets (e.g., Basel III requires 8%). Focuses on offsetting losses from risky loans. * **Leverage Ratio**: Measures capital against total loans and investments (Basel recommends 3%). Includes all assets, not just risky ones, to prevent insolvency from unexpected defaults.
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What are the three core objectives of commercial banks?
* **Profitability**: Maximize returns for shareholders by charging higher interest on loans than paid to savers. * **Liquidity**: Hold short-term liquid assets (e.g., cash, reserves) to meet depositor withdrawals and avoid bank runs. * **Security**: Minimize default risk by lending to creditworthy borrowers, even if it sacrifices some profit.
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What are the advantages and disadvantages of a central bank acting as a lender of last resort?
**Pros**: * Prevents liquidity crises and systemic collapse (e.g., BOE’s 2008 bailout). * Maintains public confidence in banks. **Cons**: * Moral hazard: Banks take excessive risks, expecting bailouts. * Regulatory capture: Close ties between banks and regulators may bias decisions.
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How does adverse selection cause financial market failure in insurance?
* **Issue**: High-risk individuals (e.g., unhealthy people) are more likely to buy insurance, while low-risk individuals avoid it. * **Outcome**: Insurers face losses, raise premiums, and drive away healthy customers, destabilizing the market.
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What are the roles of the FPC, PRA, and FCA in the UK?
* **FPC (Financial Policy Committee)**: Monitors systemic risk, conducts stress tests, advises on macroprudential policy. * **PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority)**: Ensures banks meet capital/liquidity ratios and manage risks (microprudential). * **FCA (Financial Conduct Authority)**: Protects consumers, prevents market rigging, and promotes competition.
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How do commercial banks create money through the money multiplier?
1. Banks accept deposits and lend out a fraction (e.g., 90%). 1. Lent money is redeposited, enabling new loans. 1. Total money supply = Initial deposit × (1/reserve ratio). Example: £100 deposit with 10% reserve → £900 created
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Distinguish between primary and secondary financial markets.
**Primary Market**: New securities (e.g., shares, bonds) are issued (e.g., IPOs). **Secondary Market**: Existing securities are traded (e.g., stock exchanges like NYSE).
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What is the leverage ratio, and how does it differ from the capital ratio?
**Formula**: Total Capital ÷ Total Loans & Investments. **Purpose**: Ensures banks hold capital against all assets, not just risky ones (Basel III requires 3%).
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What is a real-world example of market rigging in financial markets?
**LIBOR Scandal (2008)**: Banks (e.g., RBS, Barclays) colluded to manipulate the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), a benchmark for global interest rates. **Impact**: Fines totalling $9 billion; loss of trust in financial markets.
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How did UK financial regulation change after the 2008 crisis?
**FSA replaced** by FPC (systemic risk), PRA (bank stability), and FCA (consumer protection). **Ring-fencing**: Retail/commercial banking separated from investment banking (Vickers Report).
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How does the fractional reserve system enable credit creation?
* Banks hold a fraction (e.g., 10%) of deposits as reserves. * Lent funds are redeposited, creating new loans (e.g., £100 deposit → £900 new money with 10% reserve).
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How do Basel I, II, and III differ?
* **Basel I (1988)**: 8% capital for credit risk. * **Basel II (2004)**: Added operational/market risk. * **Basel III (2010)**: Liquidity ratios (LCR, NSFR) and 3% leverage ratio.
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What are forward markets, and how do they function in currencies and commodities?
* **Definition**: Agreements to buy/sell assets at a fixed price/date. * **Currencies**: Hedges against forex volatility (e.g., airlines locking in fuel costs). * **Commodities**: Stabilizes prices (e.g., farmers securing crop prices). * **Example**: Farmers use futures contracts to lock in crop prices, sharing risk with the market. This stabilizes income despite price volatility
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What is the Minsky Hypothesis?
* **Theory**: Prolonged financial stability encourages risk-taking, leading to crises. * **Stages**: Hedge → Speculative → Ponzi financing. * **Example**: 2008 crisis after years of stable growth.
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How do regulators use stress tests to ensure bank stability?
* **Process**: Simulate crises (e.g., 30% house price drop) to assess capital adequacy. * **Example**: BOE’s 2021 test on UK banks’ climate risk resilience.
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How did CDS exacerbate the 2008 crisis?
**Mechanism**: Insurance against bond defaults, sold widely without reserves. **Impact**: AIG’s $180B bailout after CDS losses.
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What is financial intermediation?
Process where banks/financial markets channel funds from savers to borrowers. Example: Banks collect deposits to issue loans or underwrite bonds
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What are Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)?
Securities bundling loans (e.g., mortgages). Sold globally in 2008 crisis; became "toxic" when underlying loans defaulted, causing systemic distrust.
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What is the difference between a bail-in and a bailout?
**Bail-in**: Losses absorbed by shareholders/creditors (e.g., Cyprus 2013). **Bailout**: Taxpayer-funded rescue (e.g., UK’s £65bn for RBS/Lloyds).
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What is negative equity?
When mortgage debt > home value. Restricts mobility (can’t sell without loss) and increases poverty (e.g., US 2008 housing crash).
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What is macroprudential regulation?
Policies to mitigate systemic risk (e.g., stress tests, capital buffers). Aims to prevent crises, not just manage individual banks.
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How do regulators use stress tests to ensure bank stability?
Simulates crises (e.g., 30% house price drop) to assess bank resilience. Example: BOE’s 2021 climate risk tests.
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What is the opportunity cost of bank bailouts?
Taxpayer funds used for banks could instead fund NHS, education, etc. UK’s £65bn bank bailout vs. public service cuts post-2008.
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What was the Vickers Report (2013)?
UK reform: Retail/investment banking "ring-fenced" to protect deposits from risky trades (e.g., HSBC’s separated units).
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What is underemployment?
Workers in part-time/low-skill jobs despite qualifications. Rose post-2008 due to credit crunch (e.g., zero-hour contracts in UK).