Rational Choice Model

Question 1

Is the rational choice model found in both realism and liberalism?

Answer 1

Common to both realism and liberalism

Question 2

What does rational choice place great esteem in?

Answer 2

The open-mindedness + adaptability of FP decision makers

Question 3

What is rational choice?

Answer 3

• Orderly + logical approach to decision making

- That people should choose to use

Question 4

How does rational choice work?

Answer 4

Preferences are ranked: If I prefer A to B, and B to C, then I prefer A to C

So decision makers can resolve conflicts by measuring along single attribute - subjective utility - and trading off to find best outcome

So complex measurements are made simple

Question 5

Does rational choice mirror real life?

Answer 5

• FP decision makers rarely meet these standards

- Thus models don’t mirror real life well at all

Question 6

What was the Cognitive Revolution?

Answer 6

• 40 years ago, psychologists began a cognitive revolution

- Found that people are predictably irrational

Question 7

What are the 4 key reasons for people being predictably irrational?

Answer 7

• Analogical reasoning
• People prefer consistency
• Cognitive biases
• FP makers not neutral about risk

Question 8

Why do decision makers tend to use analogical reasoning?

Answer 8

• Decision makers need to order the world to make it less complex
• Do so through analogical reasoning: looking to the past to learn about the future

Question 9

Give an example of people using analogical reasoning

Answer 9

• During Greek financial crisis
• Calls from German officials calling for austerity were labelled as Nazi behaviour
• Fitting German demands into an existing frame
• Gave Greeks who opposed terms of bailout a ready rebuttal

Question 10

What is the consequence of people preferring consistency?

Answer 10

• People strongly prefer consistency + are made uncomfortable by dissonant information
• So they consequently deny / discount information in order to preserve beliefs
• Indeed exposure to contradictory information frequently results in strengthening of their beliefs

Question 11

What is the result of cognitive biases?

Answer 11

• Lead to serious errors in attribution
• Can impair judgement
• Confound policymaking

Question 12

Why are FP makers not neutral about risk?

Answer 12

• Because loss is more painful than comparable gain is pleasant
• Thus people prefer an immediate small gain to taking a chance on a large long-term reward

Question 13

Why is a mistake to consider rational choice models as empirically valid in foreign policy analysis?

Answer 13

These factors are so pervasive it is a mistake to consider rational choice models as empirically valid in FP analysis