9.2 a) Ukraine Case Study Flashcards
(15 cards)
What has been a threat to sovereignty for Ukraine?
Annexation of Crimea from Ukraine- separatism and threat to territorial integrity and sovereignty.
What are the natural resources in Ukraine?
Ukraine has a large volume of natural materials, however the highest concentration of these are found towards the east of the country where non-metallic minerals are vastly found and also closer to the borders of Russia. Fossil fuels are located more north and west of the country.
What is the importance of gas pipelines?
- Ukraine’s main source of gas and entry of pipelines into the country is from Russia. Receiving only 2 other entry pipelines out of the 8 from Belarus.
What is the importance of coal?
- Ukraine’s highest percentage of coal resources is found in an area of conflict close to Russian borders. The rest of the coal supply is found not far from this area, threat of coal reduction from country as a result of conflict from Russia.
What is the russian speaking population like?
- The highest percentage of Russian speakers are found in Crimea and close to the Russian border. Therefore, there is an advantage for both Crimea and Russia upon the entry of the nation to Russia, threatening the sovereignty of Ukraine.
What is the importance of the EU referendum?
- There is a high percentage who voted for Yanukovych closer to the Russian borders, these areas have a higher percentage of people who are native russian speakers, Russia can have a large influence politically and socially. This shows the future advance of Russia into these areas.
What is the importance of the 2010 election?
- The percentage of the population which speak Russian natively are found further east , closer towards Russia. Therefore, Russia can have a larger impact on these areas, politically and socially. The election shows this with the main split being around these regions and the rest of Ukraine.
What is the importance of national/political affiliation?
- Areas of Ukraine which are against Russia are part of the core of Ukraine, Russia still does not possess the areas which are most important to the country.
What is the importance of a NATO membership?
- Both Russia and Ukraine are not part of the NATO, however in Nov 2022, NATO allegedly promised membership to Ukraine. Because of this their conflict brings instability between the memberships of this organisation and institutional agreements become fragile.
What is the importance of buffer zones?
- Most NATO members are sat behind Ukraine geographically, and so any NATO nukes or US bases are not accessible for Ukraine. To further add to this, Russia holds many Nukes and bases outside of its country which can all advance to attack Ukraine.
What is the 2022 start point?
Luhansk and Donetsk have been taken by Russia, as well as Crimea, showing the advance of Russia into the country of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government is slowly being eroded as Russia further advance.
2025- Russia controls 20% of Ukraine
What are the political consequences?
- Is also a war against the west:
- Is a moral challenge to Europe and rest of the world. Human rights and UN charters have not been followed.
- Institutional agreements for peace and security are starting to look fragile.
- Erosion of trust
- Russia has created economic shocks in energy markets and is weaponizing famine.
- Russian threats:
- Have raised risk of possible use of nuclear weapons- to discourage western allies from offering military support to Ukraine
- International response:
- NATO- balancing strong support to Ukraine with reluctance to avoid open conflict with Russia, has been vindicated.
- UN and OSCE have not been able to offer meaningful responses- due to paralysing effect of Russia Veto.
- Solidarity with Ukraine is not yet universal among all UN members.
- Shifting alliances:
- EU- sanctions and actions against Russia.
- Risk of return of nuclear weapons
What are the economic consequences?
- Gas networks for a large volume of Europe cut off- Russia is the main source of energy.
- Disruption in food and energy supply
What are the social consequences?
- Drone wars
- Risk of return of nuclear weapons
- Disruption in food and energy supply
- International laws broken- UN charters and fundamental international law.
What is the key timeline?
24 February 2022- Russia opens conflict with Ukraine
April 2022- Russian missile strike hits train station in Kramatorsk, Ukraine
May 2022- Sweden and Finland unveil bids to join NATO- Putin cited NATO expansion was one of the reasons for invading Ukraine, yet NATO begins to grow
June 2022- Nike leaves Russia, among other western brands- crippling Russian economy. UN projection- 181 million people in 41 countries to face acute food insecurity and famine.
July 2022- Russia advances to the east. Russia begins to shut down Nord stream gas pipelines to increase pressure on Europe. Ukraine and Russia agree to a landmark deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported across the Black Sea. It is a major breakthrough aimed at easing the global food crisis.
August 2022- gas exports to Europe stop.
September 2022- mobilisation of 300,000 troops to fight in Ukraine.
October 2022- explosion on bridge between Russia and Crimea. Russia bombs Ukraine energy infrastructure- knocking out power and heating ahead of winter. UNICEF report- 4 million children in poverty.
November 2022- Ukrainian troops pour into Kherson.
December 2022- US reluctant to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine over fears of flaming tensions with Russia.
