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PSYC 1115 LECTURE > CH1 > Flashcards

CH1 Flashcards

(66 cards)

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1
Q

why do easy-to-remember misconceptions overwhelm hard truths?

A

repetition of statements, whether true or false, makes them easier to process and remember

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2
Q

what are the three common flaws in commonsense thinking?

A
  • hindsight bias
  • overconfidence
  • perceiving order in random events
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3
Q

what is hindsight bias?

A
  • the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
  • actual future is seldom foreseen, not a series of inevitable events
  • I knew it all along
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4
Q

what is overconfidence?

A
  • we tend to think we know more than we do
  • tend to be more confident than correct
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5
Q

what are superforecasters?

A
  • people who avoid overconfidence
  • gathers facts, balances clashing arguments, settles on an answer
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6
Q

what is perceiving order in random events?

A
  • random sequences don’t often look random because humans often find patterns in everything
  • eagerness to make sense of the world
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7
Q

why are people prone to perceiving order in random events?

A

a random unpredictable world is unsettling
- making sense of the world through seeking patterns relieves stress

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8
Q

why are outrageous things likely to happen even if they seem so extraordinary?

A
  • with large enough samples, an unusual event is more likely to happen more frequently
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9
Q

what is post-truth?

A

the modern culture where people’s emotions and personal beliefs often override their acceptance of objective facts

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10
Q

what are the obstacles post-truth era people experience?

A
  • false news
  • repetition
  • availability of powerful examples
  • group identity and the echo chamber of the like-minded
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11
Q

what is false news?

A

misinformation that is intentionally given, lies in the guise of news

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12
Q

how is repetition an obstacle in the post-truth era?

A
  • statements become more believable when they are repeated
  • what we hear over and over gets remembered and comes to seem true
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13
Q

how is availability of powerful examples an obstacle in the post-truth era?

A
  • powerful examples, like gruesome violence, greatly impact our judgments
  • leads to gross overestimation of statistics like car crashes, victims of crime, terrorism
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14
Q

how is group identity and the echo chamber of the like-minded an obstacle in the post-truth world?

A
  • our social identities matter
  • feeling good about our groups helps us feel good about ourselves
  • we often read news sources that affirm our views and demonize news sources that do not
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15
Q

how do we build a real-truth world?

A
  • embrace a scientific mindset
  • curiosity, skepticism, humility
  • critical thinking
  • to accept everything is to be gullible, to deny everything is to be a cynic
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16
Q

what is the scientific method?

A

a self-correcting process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis
- welcomes hunches and plausible-sounding theories and tests them

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17
Q

what is a theory?

A

an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviours or events

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18
Q

what is a hypothesis?

A

a testable prediction, often implied with a theory
- such predictions specify what results would support the theory and what results would disconfirm it

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19
Q

what are operational definitions?

A

a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures or operations used in a research study that defines concepts and makes them precise and measurable

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20
Q

why do we need operational definitions?

A

so others may replicate the original observations with different participants, materials, circumstances
- replication is confirmation

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21
Q

when does replication fail?

A
  • samples are small
  • bigger sample = a bigger chance of replication
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22
Q

what is preregistration?

A

publicly communicating planned study design, hypotheses, data collection, and analyses
- openness and transparency prevents later modifications

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23
Q

what is exploratory research?

A

investigators gather data and seek patterns that inspire theories, which then are tested with confirmatory research

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24
Q

what is meta-analysis?

A

a statistical procedure for analyzing the results of multiple studies to reach an overall conclusion
- combining results of many studies, researchers avoid the problem of small samples

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25
how do you know a theory is useful?
- organizes observations - implies predictions that anyone can use to check the theory or to derive practical applications - may stimulate further research that leads to a revised theory that better organizes and predicts
26
what are descriptive methods?
describes behaviours - case studies - surveys - naturalistic observations
27
what are correlational methods?
- associate different factors and see if theres a relationship
28
what are experimental methods?
- manipulates factors to discover effects
29
what are case studies?
examines one individual or group in depth in the hope of revealing things true to us all - in depth analysis of individuals or groups
30
how can atypical individual case studies mislead us?
- unrepresentative information can lead to mistaken judgments and false conclusions - dramatic stories and personal experiences command our attention and are easily remembered - the plural of anecdote is not evidence - we d not know for sure whether principles observed would apply to a larger population
31
what are naturalistic observations?
a descriptive technique of observing and recording behaviour in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation - does not explain behaviour, only describes it
32
what is a survey?
- descriptive technique for obtaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviours of a particular group, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of the group
33
how are surveys tricky?
- people may shade answers in socially desirable direction - answers often depend on how questions are worded and how respondents are chosen - wording of questions can make big difference
34
what is sampling bias?
to generalize from a few vivid but unrepresentative cases rather than the numerous and representative cases
35
what is a random sample?
- every person in the entire population had an equal chance of being included in the sample group
36
what is correlation?
a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and how well either factor predicts the other
37
what is the correlation coefficient
a statistical index of the relationship between two things - helps us figure out how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other
38
what is a positive correlation?
if two sets of scores relate proportionally
39
what is a negative correlation?
if two sets of scores relate inversely
40
what is an illusory correlation?
perceiving a relationship where none exists, or perceiving a stronger-than-actual relationship
41
what do correlations reveal?
- make it clear the relationships we might otherwise miss - keeps us from falsely observing nonexistent relationships
42
what is a regression toward the mean?
the tendency for extreme or unusual scores or events to fall back toward the average - illusion that uncontrollable events correlate with our actions
43
what happens after an unusual event?
things tend to return toward their average level - extraordinary events tend to be followed by more ordinary ones when a fluctuating behaviour returns to normal, regression toward the mean at work
44
what does failure to recognize regression toward the mean do?
- source of many superstitions and ineffective practices - mislead us into feeling rewarded after criticizing others and feeling punished after praising them
45
why do correlations enable prediction but not cause-effect explanation?
correlation is not causation - suggests a possible cause-effect relationship but does not prove it - third factor may explain the correlation
46
what are experiments?
a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors to observe the effect on some behaviour or mental process
47
what do experiments enable researchers to do?
- isolate the effects of one or more factors by manipulating the factors of interesting and holding other factors constant
48
what is an experimental group?
group exposed to the treatment, or independent variable
49
how might one randomly assign people to experimental or control group?
- random numbers, flip a coin
50
why is random assignment important in performing an experiment?
- to avoid confound variables - to minimize preexisting differences between the different groups - to increase the chance that the experiment had an effect if groups differ in performance at the end
51
what are correlational studies usually complemented by?
correlational studies uncover naturally occurring relationships, which are complemented by experiments which manipulate a factor to determine its effect
52
what is a double-blind procedure?
an experimental procedure where both research participants and staff are blind about whether the research participants have received the treatment or a placebo
53
what is the placebo effect?
experimental results caused by expectations alone, any effect on behaviour caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which the recipient assumes is an active agent
54
what are confound variables and how do we avoid them?
- factors that can potentially influence a study's results - random assignment controls for possible confounding variables
55
what are the weaknesses of experimental research methods?
- sometimes not feasible - results may not generalize to other contexts - not ethical to manipulate certain variables
56
why does the experimenter intend the laboratory environment to be a simplified reality?
- stimulates and controls important features of everyday life - an experiment's purpose is to test theoretic principles - the resulting principles, not specific findings, help explain everyday behaviours
57
what are the ethics codes that researchers are urged to follow?
- obtain participant's informed consent to take part - protect participants from harm or discomfort - keep info about individual participants confidential - fully debrief people, explain research afterward, including temporary deception
58
what is the mode?
the most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution
59
what is the mean?
the arithmetic average, the total sum of all the scores divided by the number of scores
60
what is the median?
the midpoint, the 50th percentile
61
what is the standard deviation?
a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean
62
what are inferential statistics?
help us determine if results can be generalized to a larger population
63
what principles do we keep in mind when an observed difference is safe to be generalized as reliable?
- representative samples are better than biased samples - less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable - more cases are better than few
64
when is an average more reliable?
- representative sample - when it comes from scores with low variability, low range and SD - more cases = more replicable study
65
how does the size difference between the null and alternate hypotheses determine statistical significance?
- when samples are large, and when difference between them is large - when averages from two samples are each reliable measures of their respective populations - the less variability, the more confidence that observations are real - if difference between sample avg is large, more confidence that it reflects real difference in their popns
66
what does statistical significance indicate?
- indicates likelihood that a result would happen by chance if null hypothesis were true, but does not indicate important of the result

PSYC 1115 LECTURE (5 decks)

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