Chapter 9 -Risk and uncertainty Flashcards Preview

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Flashcards in Chapter 9 -Risk and uncertainty Deck (15)
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1
Q

What is described below?

There are a number of possible outcomes and the probability of each outcome is known.

A

Risk

2
Q

What is described below?

There are a number of possible outcomes but the probability of each outcome is not known.

A

Uncertainty

3
Q

What are three strengths of sensitivity analysis?

A
  • Not complicated to understand
  • Enables subjective judgement
  • Identifies crucial success areas
4
Q

What are three weaknesses of sensitivity analysis?

A
  • Assumes variables can change independently
  • Does not look at probability of variables changing
  • Does not point in direction of correct decision
5
Q

What are 4 main drawbacks of simulation?

A
  • Only obtains more info, does not make decisions
  • Models can be complex
  • Can cost more to construct than benefit achieved
  • May be difficult to formulate
6
Q

What are 3 advantages of expected values?

A
  • Takes uncertainty into account
  • Single number easier for decision making
  • Calculations are simple
7
Q

What are 3 disadvantages of expected values?

A
  • Probabilities are subjective
  • EV has little meaning for one off project
  • Does not show other possible outcomes
8
Q

Where do you put the decision variable in a profit/payoff table?

A

Along the top

9
Q

What does the Maximax method do?

A

Maximizes the maximum payoff achievable?

10
Q

What sort of investors use Maximax rule?

A

Risk seekers

11
Q

What does the Maximin method do?

A

Maximises the minimum payoff achievable

12
Q

Who is the maximin method good for

A

Risk averse pessimists who want to minimise losses

13
Q

What is regret?

A

The opportunity loss for having made the wrong decision

14
Q

What does the minimax regret strategy do?

A

Minimises the maximum regret

15
Q

How do you calculate the value of perfect information?

A

Expected profit with information

Less: Expected profit without information