class 6 - electoral behavior Flashcards
thesis prominent in the literature
- voters dealigned from political parties
= dealignment thesis
theories of electoral behaviour
- party identification theory
- political cleavage theory
party identification theory
- sources party identification
- effects party identification
= psychological theory of voting, Michigan School of Electoral Behaviour
Party Identification = a measure of association people have with political parties (based on long-term psychological identification)
the more people identify with a party:
- the more likely it is they will vote for that party +
- come back to voting next election (even if you didn’t in the last election)
- the more likely people are to participate in election
- the more likely to interpret political events through the view/goggle of that specific party
effects of party identification:
- effect on voters = party identification is an organizing advise for political evaluation and judgments + device for political mobilization
- effects on the systems: stabilization of electoral behavior
sources for party identification =
- socialization: early adulthood environmental/family influences
- institutions (weak point of this theory): two-party system forces you to identify with one or another (problem: not many 2-party systems, works best in US than in Europe)
problem = people don’t identify with parties, but with groups
political cleavage theory
- definition cleavage
- sources of cleavage
- effects of cleavage
= sociological theory, social group theory of voting
electoral behavior is the result of underlying cleavage structure of societies, and these cleavage structures are the product of long historical processes (lipset & Lochen?…)
cleavage = (!!all elements need to be there)
- social division
- collective identity (groups must be aware of a collective identity on the basis of a social division)
- organizational expression: party or social group needs to mobilize senses of identities and division and needs to translate it to politics
sources of cleavage =
- national revolution : emergence of states in Europe
- industrial revolution
effects of political cleavages
- on voters = organizing device for political evaluation and judgments + formation of strong collective political identities
- on the system = formation of (different) party systems + stabilization of electoral behaviour
!not all cleavages work to the same extent in different countries, e.g. Britain mainly class cleavage -> 2 party-system
e.g. NL: multiparty system, there were 2 cleavages: class and religion
4 key cleavages
national revolution:
- church vs state / religious cleavage (state centralization -> secularization: separate state and church authorities)
*mainly in catholic states - center vs periphery (periphery resisted unification/centralizing state)
*e.g. Catalan
industrial revolution:
- owner vs worker = class cleavage
- urban vs rural (less important than the class cleavage)
interim summary: differences and commonalities party identification and cleavage theory
differences between theories =
- party identification = psychological, focus on individual (level of analysis is individual voters) +
- political cleavage theory = collective identities, social groups -> level of analysis party systems or social groups
they have in common:
- emphasis on stability and predictability of electoral behavior
- emphasis on long-term factors underpinning electoral behavior
- general theories of electoral behavior
!they are based on Europe and America, but have been used more broadly
some empirical evidence dealignment
Party identification
- US 1988-2017: 75% said they strongly identified with parties, 2017 ~60%, independents largest category => gradual decline party identification
- decreasing partisanship + closeness to a pol. party (Dalton): variation with diff. countries
cleavage theory (ON EXAM)
- Alford Index of Class Voting = divides voters in working class and middle class, calculates number of working class people voting for leftwing parties-number of middle class people also voting for class/left-wingparties => over the years has been declining
- religion and voting (Europe): mean electoral support Christian democratic parties has been gradually declining
- estimate church membership US: 73% in 1940, 2020 47%
- Andeweg and Irwin: strength religion in voting in NL (1956 30% voters was catholic, of the 95% voted for catholic party + 2006 7% catholic, of those only 61% voted catholic)
3 drivers decline importance of cleavages
- class cleavage: changing nature of Western capitalist economies = de-industrialization: smaller production, disfavors concentration working class
- religious voting: secularization (gradual disappearence of the influence of religion)
- new issues emerge in representative democracies: immigration, minority rights, gender identity
consequences of voter dealignment 4
people choose: aren’t socialized, aren’t preset
*isn’t necessarily good:
- increased electoral volatility (differs between countries): measures net changes in votes for parties in following elections
*NL one of the most volatile now, whilst it used to be very stable (verzuiling)
*third wave democracries high volatility - increase in the fragmentation of party systems (measure = effective number of parties relative to the share of votes = has been increasing)(measure= effective number of parties in parliament = growing)
- split ticket voting = split vote between different parties on same election (e.g. vote for party A for president, party B for senator) = common in US (possible expl.: decrease party identification)
- increased importance of electoral campaigns : people decide during campaigns, before they already knew then -> more spending on elections
(increase in general political interest, but decline in electoral activities) - in outline, but not mentioned
new patterns of electoral behaviour
- class and religion still matter, even if it is less than they used to = old cleavages are still relevant
issue voting = voters assess problems and positions of specific parties on those problems -> base their decision on that
*rational choice theory
- position issues: you can be for or againt (e.g. abortion)
- valence issues: judgment of competence, of delivering good policies on certain issues (every party is for A, but which one is most likely succesful to obtain that)
e.g. driver issue voting = voting advice applications, e.g. stemwijzer
new cleavage politics: emergence new party types 1980s, e.g. the Greens
- post-materialism vs materialism
*problem: return materialism (extreme-right populist parties) - new center-periphery cleavage = losers of globalization (small cities, peripheries) are materialist and nationalist, winners of globalization are post-materialist
!! are these ‘‘new cleavages’’ really cleavages in the sense of Lipson en Rock?, or are they just divisions (if they are not cleavages, they won’t shape voting behavior for a long time)
conclusion
- theories of electoral behavior stability (concepts of party identification and political cleavages)
- contemporary voters with less electoral predispositions
- less predictable (but explainable) elections
