class remains the most important social factor Flashcards
(7 cards)
Debate themes:
- Class vs age
- Class vs education
- Class vs region
For: Class vs age
Historically dominant:
Up to the early 1970s, voting behaviour was strongly shaped by class + social status.
Class voting reflected self-interest, with each major party aligned with specific class groups.
Traditional class alignments:
WC predominantly supported the Labour Party, due to its ties to trade unions and blue collar industries like coal, steel, and textiles.
Upper and MC (including white-collar professionals and business owners) generally supported the Conservative Party.
Persistence of class identity in voting:
In some regions, class identity still strongly influences party support.
Northern cities such as Liverpool and Manchester have retained a WC identity, contributing to continued Labour dominance in these constituencies—even in 2019, a poor year for Labour nationally.
2024 voting patterns by class:
In the 2024 election, voters from C2 and DE (WC groups) were more likely to vote for Reform UK, showing class remains a relevant dividing line, even if allegiance has shifted away from Labour.
Against: Class vs age
Class dealignment since the 1970s: Class has weakened as a predictor of voting behaviour.
Driven by: Societal and economic change – more affluence, collapse of blue-collar jobs, blurred class distinctions.
Parties broadening appeal – shifting policies to attract voters across class lines.
Labour’s weakened working-class appeal:
Labour no longer strongly associated with defending blue-collar workers, especially due to Brexit and globalisation issues.
Voting statistics show class alignment has decreased:
In 1964: 78% of ABs voted Conservative, 64% of DEs voted Labour.
By 2019: Only 42% of ABs voted Conservative, and just 34% of DEs voted Labour (IPSOS MORI).
Age now a stronger dividing line:
YouGov (2017): Called age the “new dividing line in British politics”.
Young people (18–24) in 2024: 41% Labour, 18% Green, only 9% Reform and 8% Conservative.
Older voters (60+):
40% Conservative, only 3% Green and 24% Labour.
Turnout favours older voters:
In 2017, 65+ turnout was about 25 percentage points higher than 18–24s, benefitting the Conservatives.
Long-term party risk:
Traditionally, people became more conservative with age. New research suggests millennials are not shifting right, posing a future challenge for the Conservatives as their base ages.
Against: Class vs education
Strong correlation between education level and voting preference:
Higher education → Labour or Lib Dems.
Lower education → Conservatives or Reform.
2019 General Election (YouGov):
Degree holders:
43% Labour
17% Lib Dem
29% Conservative
GCSE or lower:
58% voted Conservative.
EU Referendum (2016):
No qualifications: 75% voted Leave.
University graduates: 75% voted Remain.
2024 General Election:
Highly educated voters: More likely to vote Labour or Lib Dem.
Lower education levels: More likely to support Reform or Conservatives.
Explanation – Values divide:
Lower educational attainment: Tend to hold authoritarian values → Conservative/Reform support.
Higher educational attainment: Tend to hold libertarian values → Labour/Lib Dem support.
For: Class vs education
Education now closely linked to income:
Lower education levels = Lower average income.
Suggests a new form of class divide based on education and economic status.
2024 General Election:
Reform Party gained more support from:
Working-class voters.
Voters with lower levels of education.
Potential Limitations of the Education Divide:
May be short-term and heavily influenced by Brexit.
As Brexit fades as a key political issue, this divide might weaken in future elections.
Against: Class vs region
Historically important:
Labour strongholds: North of England, Wales, Scotland.
Conservative strongholds: South East, East Midlands.
Decline in regional significance (1997–2019):
1997: Blair’s Labour gained middle-class Tory seats in the South.
2010: SNP dismantled Labour’s hold on Scotland.
2019: Tories broke the ‘Red Wall’ (Labour strongholds in the North), flipping seats with large majorities.
Return of regional patterns in 2024:
Labour regained dominance in the North and Scotland.
Conservatives collapsed in many regions, reduced to mostly rural seats.
North England & Wales: In 2024, Tories won only 4 of 131 seats (compared to 56 in 2019).
Scotland: SNP lost ground; Labour won 37 of 57 seats.
For: Class vs region
2024 results may not show regional resurgence, but rather nationwide Conservative collapse, including in their own strongholds:
In the South East, Tories dropped from 74/91 seats (2019) to just 30/91 (2024).
Labour (36) and Lib Dems (24) gained heavily in traditional Tory regions.
Regional voting patterns may just mirror other divides:
The North = historically working class → Labour support.
The South East = historically middle/upper class → Conservative support.
Current regional divides align more with education and age:
Cities like London: younger, highly educated → more Labour support.
Rural areas: older, less educated populations → more Conservative or Lib Dem support.
