valence factors most important in determining VB Flashcards
(8 cards)
Define valence factors
Valence issues occur when parties largely agree on policies, so voters decide based on which party they believe will govern most effectively. Leadership and competence are crucial. These issues became more important in the 2010, 2015, and 2024 elections due to fewer policy differences between parties.
Debate themes
- Leadership vs rational choice + issue based voting
- Competence vs campaign
- Valence factors vs social factors
For: Leadership vs rational choice + issue based voting
Valence factors are most important
Rise of personalisation in politics: Voters now focus more on party leaders than party policies, especially due to social and digital media and the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics.
Media coverage & photo ops: Parties work hard to shape public image of their leaders (e.g. photo shoots, humanising content, televised debates).
Examples of leadership influencing outcomes:
2010: Nick Clegg’s strong debate performance → poll boost for Lib Dems.
2010: David Cameron seen as fresh & charismatic vs. Gordon Brown (unpopular, indecisive).
2015 & 2024: Few policy differences – leadership stood out more.
Boris Johnson in 2019:
Personally popular.
Helped Tories win over ‘Red Wall’ Labour voters who had never voted Conservative before.
Jeremy Corbyn in 2019:
Highly unpopular.
A major factor in Labour’s worst defeat since 1935.
2024 General Election:
Sunak: One of the most unpopular leaders in UK electoral history (net -51%).
Damaged by Partygate, perceived as smug/out of touch, worsened by D-Day blunder.
Starmer: More palatable (net -17%), helped neutralise negative perceptions of Labour from the Corbyn years.
Against: Leadership vs rational choice + issue based voting
Voters Prioritising Policy Over Leadership
Rational Choice Theory:
Voters act like consumers: assess policies and choose what benefits them most.
Increasingly relevant with a more educated electorate and widespread access to information via the internet.
Economic Voting:
People vote for parties that benefit them financially.
Homeowners more likely to vote Conservative.
Renters and those with mortgages more likely to vote Labour (2024: ~40%).
Labour’s 2024 rental reform promises resonated with renters.
Examples:
Tuition Fees: Corbyn’s promise to abolish them helped win younger voters in 2017 and 2019.
Issue-Based Voting:
Voters prioritise specific issues even if they don’t align with a party’s broader policies.
2019: Brexit was the defining issue.
74% of Leave voters backed Tories (including in Red Wall).
49% of Remain voters backed Labour.
Issue salience matters:
Policy voting becomes more influential when clear ideological or policy divides exist between the parties.
For: Competence vs campaign
Competence as Key Determinant: Voters assess the government’s competence, judging them based on their ability to manage issues like the economy and public services.
1979 Election: Labour lost due to the perception they couldn’t handle the economy or trade unions. The Winter of Discontent (1978-1979) contributed to the view that Labour was incompetent. The Tories capitalized on this with the slogan “Labour Isn’t Working”.
1997 Election: Economic incompetence of the Conservative Party, especially the aftermath of Black Wednesday (1992), led to a loss of trust. Labour successfully presented itself as the party that could manage the economy and pledged not to increase taxes, leading to their victory.
2024 Election: The Conservative government’s perceived incompetence, due to scandals like Partygate (Boris Johnson breaking COVID-19 rules) and Truss’s economic missteps (mini-budget that caused market instability), was a significant factor in Labour’s landslide victory. The Tories’ vote share dropped from 43.6% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2024.
Impact of Scandals: Partygate undermined trust in the government, especially as Johnson, a once-popular figure, was tarnished by these scandals. Truss’s premiership further eroded trust due to failed economic policies.
Perceived Incompetence of the Opposition: In 2019, Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was seen as too radical and untrustworthy, particularly with his left-wing manifesto focused on high spending and nationalizations, which deterred voters from supporting Labour.
Against: Competence vs campaign
Importance of Campaigns: Campaigns play a significant role, as many voters only focus on politics during this time. Political parties make their manifestos and actively engage with the media to sway voters.
2017 Election Example:
Conservatives began with a lead but faced setbacks as Labour made significant gains.
A major campaign gaffe: Theresa May’s proposal for a “dementia tax”, which faced strong backlash and was dropped within 24 hours, damaging Conservative support.
2010 Election Example:
Gordon Brown’s “bigoted woman” gaffe in a private conversation with a voter was caught on a hot mic, severely damaging his leadership image and contributing to Labour’s loss.
2024 Election Example:
Reform UK gained significant support, rising from 10% to 14% due to key moments during the campaign, like the announcement of Nigel Farage running in Clacton and becoming the party leader.
Conservative Failures:
Sunak criticized for leaving a D-Day event early to attend an ITV interview, damaging his image.
Allegations of corruption after Conservative MPs were accused of using insider information to place bets on the election date.
Against: Valence factors vs social factors
Voters Often Choose Based on Policy, Not Leadership/Competence:
Voters may ignore leadership/competence (valence factors) and vote for a party due to strong policy preferences that align with their interests (e.g., free tuition fees appealing to younger voters).
Class and Social Status Influence:
Historically, voting behaviour was heavily influenced by class. The working class typically voted for Labour, while the upper and middle classes supported the Conservative Party.
Modern Social Factors – Age:
Age has become a key determinant of voting behaviour:
Younger voters are more likely to vote Labour, Greens, or other left-wing parties.
Older voters tend to vote Conservative.
2024 Election Example:
18-24-year-olds: 41% Labour, 18% Green, 9% Reform, 8% Conservative.
Over 60s: 24% Labour, 40% Conservative, 16% Reform, 3% Green.
Turnout and its Impact on Voting:
Older voters have much higher turnout (e.g., 25 percentage points higher in 2017 for 65+ age group), which benefits the Conservative Party.
For: Valence factors vs social factors
Decline in Partisan Affiliation:
Post-WWII, voters had strong political party affiliations, influenced by family tradition, class, workplace, and community.
1970s and 1980s saw a decline in these strong attachments, continuing into the 21st century.
Swing voters became more common, who are now more likely to vote for any party, including minor parties.
Swing in Voting Trends:
2019 Tory landslide reversed to a 2024 Labour landslide.
The Conservative Party lost 56 seats in North and Wales (previously won due to Brexit and Johnson’s popularity), mainly due to loss of trust in their competence and leadership.
Class and Age as Weaker Determinants:
Class has significantly declined in importance as a voting determinant since the 1970s and 1980s.
Age is seen as a weaker factor, as it no longer forms a core part of voter identity (unlike class did previously).
Valence Factors as More Important:
With the decline of social factors, valence factors (such as leadership and competence) now play a more significant role in determining voting behaviour.
Voters are more likely to vote based on current party leadership, perceived competence, and how parties present themselves during elections.
