GE lost by govt rather than won by opposition Flashcards
(7 cards)
Debate themes:
- Leadership
- Competence
- Rational choice and issue based voting
For: Leadership
Rishi Sunak’s Unpopularity (2024):
Net favourability of -51%.
Scandals (e.g., Partygate, leaving D-Day early).
Despite Starmer’s -17% favourability, Labour wins a landslide due to Sunak’s poor popularity.
David Cameron’s Success (2010):
Cameron’s approval (33%) vs. Gordon Brown’s (29%).
Brown’s image as incompetent, cowardly, and uninspiring.
Cameron won due to Brown’s unpopularity, not his own personal popularity.
James Callaghan’s Failure (1979):
Winter of Discontent, failure to manage trade unions.
Callaghan’s unpopularity was key in Labour’s loss.
Margaret Thatcher’s lack of popularity irrelevant in contrast to Labour’s failures.
Key Elections Show Unpopularity Drives Losses:
Governing party loses because of Prime Minister’s unpopularity.
Popularity of opposition leader not always crucial to victory.
Opposition’s Role in Campaigning:
Effective campaigns can drive opposition success, even with unpopular leaders (e.g., Starmer’s 2024 success despite low favourability).
Voters also look for a clear alternative to an unpopular government.
Against: Leadership
Changing Leaders in the Governing Party:
Conservative Party’s Leadership Changes:
Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss removed due to unpopularity.
Johnson’s leadership in 2019 marked a successful change, as he distanced himself from party issues and used his charisma to win the election.
Opposition Leader Popularity:
1997 Election – Tony Blair’s Popularity:
Blair was highly popular, seen as competent, charismatic, and with a clear vision.
Contrast with John Major, who was weak, uninspiring, and associated with internal party divisions and scandals (e.g., ‘sleaze’ and cash-for-questions).
Importance of Leadership in Elections:
Both governing parties and opposition parties rely on leader popularity.
When a leader of the governing party is unpopular, a change can help regain support (e.g., Johnson replacing May).
Popular opposition leaders (e.g., Blair) can tip the balance in favour of the opposition party.
For: Competence
Incompetence of the Government:
1979 Election: Labour’s inability to manage the economy and trade unions during the ‘Winter of Discontent’ led to widespread strikes and economic failure. The Conservatives used this failure as a central campaign message (“Labour Isn’t Working”).
1997 Election:
Economic Competence: Despite the economic recovery, voters didn’t credit the Conservatives for it. Instead, the memory of ‘Black Wednesday’ (1992), where the UK was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, tarnished the Conservative Party’s reputation for economic competence.
Labour capitalized on this to win, portraying themselves as more competent in economic management.
2019-2024 Example:
Incompetence and Scandals: The Conservative Party, under Boris Johnson, was widely seen as incompetent, self-serving, and untrustworthy, especially after the ‘Partygate scandal’ (violation of COVID-19 regulations by the government while the public adhered to restrictions).
2024 Election: The public’s loss of faith in the government, along with scandals, played a significant role in Labour’s landslide victory. The Conservative vote share dropped dramatically from 43.6% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2024.
The Failure of Leadership and Economic Policies:
Liz Truss’s Premiership (2022): Her unfunded tax cuts led to an economic crisis, with the pound devaluing, rising borrowing costs, and higher mortgage rates, which ultimately led to her resignation.
Unpopularity of Conservative Leaders: The failure of key leaders such as Boris Johnson and Liz Truss is a prime example of the government’s inability to regain support, contributing to their loss in the 2024 election.
Voter Sentiment:
2024 Labour Victory: Polling revealed that many Labour voters chose the party primarily to remove the Tories from power rather than strong support for Labour’s policies. The government’s own actions (scandals, economic failures) contributed significantly to their defeat.
Against: Competence
Opposition’s Competence is Crucial:
The opposition can only benefit from government incompetence if they are perceived as competent themselves.
1997 Election: Labour, under Tony Blair, presented themselves as economically competent, pledging not to increase income tax and prioritizing national finances, which made them a credible alternative to the Conservatives.
1979 Election: The Conservatives, led by Margaret Thatcher, were successful in framing themselves as the party that could tackle inflation and economic instability. Labour’s message lacked credibility due to their failure in office.
Labour’s Strategic Shift in 2024:
In 2024, Labour successfully presented itself as competent, focusing on being the antithesis of the Conservative government. This made them more appealing to voters.
Labour’s shift to the centre ground played a significant role in attracting moderate voters, as it reassured them they wouldn’t introduce radical policies that could destabilize the economy.
Tax promises: Labour’s pledge to not raise income tax, national insurance, or corporation tax countered the Conservative Party’s usual attack line on tax hikes, making it ineffective.
Voter Defection in 2024:
Labour was able to attract 2019 Conservative voters who were dissatisfied with the party’s performance and perceived incompetence, even though Starmer was not the most exciting leader.
Labour’s image: While not charismatic, Starmer’s focus on presenting a competent and non-corrupt government contrasted with the self-serving image of the Conservative leadership, especially after scandals.
Against: Rational choice and issue based voting
The Opposition Provides a Credible Policy Platform:
One key reason the opposition wins elections is that they offer a manifesto with policies that promise real change and economic benefits to voters.
1997 Election: Tony Blair successfully rebranded the Labour Party, abandoning old, unpopular policies like nationalisation, tax increases, and strengthening trade unions, which appealed more to working-class voters but alienated the middle class.
Labour’s Policy Modernisation Under Blair:
Blair’s leadership focused on modernising the Labour Party to appeal to a broader electorate, especially the middle-class voters.
He embraced a more centrist approach, moving away from the party’s traditional left-wing policies to create a more pragmatic and business-friendly image.
Tough on Crime and Link to Business Community:
Law and order became a key focus in Blair’s 1997 campaign, with the slogan “Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” resonating with voters concerned about rising crime rates in the early 1990s.
Blair also made strategic efforts to associate Labour with the business community, which reassured middle-class voters that the party was capable of handling economic and financial matters responsibly.
Specific, Reassuring Policy Details:
Blair’s 1997 platform included concrete policy proposals, such as reducing primary school class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists, which signaled to voters that Labour was committed to making tangible, measurable improvements in people’s daily lives.
Electoral Success:
These policies, along with the centre-left rebranding, allowed the Labour Party to present itself as a credible, competent alternative to the Conservative government, resulting in a landslide victory in 1997.
For: Rational choice and issue based voting
Opposition Offers Change in Leadership:
One key argument for general elections being lost by the government is that the opposition party offers change in leadership. Even when policies are similar, leadership change can be enough to sway voters who are dissatisfied with the current government.
1979 Election – Change in Leadership:
In the 1979 election, both parties (Labour and the Conservatives) focused on reducing inflation, but the Conservative Party, under Margaret Thatcher, was able to win because voters were seeking a new direction. Thatcher’s leadership was perceived as strong, and she presented a fresh alternative to the Labour government, which had failed to manage the economy and trade unions.
2010 Election – Economic Competence:
The 2010 election is another example where the Labour and Conservative parties had similar policies, especially regarding austerity and deficit reduction. However, the Conservative Party was able to succeed because its economic competence was less tarnished than that of Labour, which had been damaged by the financial crash.
2024 Election – Focusing on Leadership:
In the 2024 election, the Labour Party moved to the centre ground to closely align with the Conservatives on key policies, such as defence spending, tax promises, and immigration.
The election was primarily contested on the government’s record, not policy differences. The Conservatives were viewed as incompetent and self-serving, whereas Labour offered fresh leadership with a reputation for competence, which helped them win despite similar policy positions.
Change of Leadership, Not Policy:
These elections highlight how leadership change—rather than significant policy differences—can be a decisive factor. The electorate may be willing to support the opposition if they believe it is a necessary change in leadership, especially when the current government is seen as failing or out of touch.
