Counterfactual Reasoning Flashcards
(27 cards)
What is counterfactual reasoning
The ability to reason about situations and events removed from, or contrary to, current reality.
This includes ability to think about the past and the future, and situations with multiple possible outcomes.
Why might it be useful to use counterfactual reasoning
To improve on something, when something goes wrong
Cognition and time
The ability to consider events or possibilities that are physically and temporally removed underpins many cognitive skills
What did Piaget note about cognition and time
Young children frequently make egocentric realist errors
More recent research demonstrates that three year olds have difficulty seperating themselves from their own view of the world.
What is the first step towards counterfactual reasoning
First step twards counterfactual thinking is seperating ourselves from the world around us
When do children first do this?
When they engage in pretend play, from around 18 months
What is pretence
when we act as if something is the case, while also correctly perceiving the current reality
when does evidence of counterfactual thinking emerge
preschool years
Rafetseder et al - counterfactuality in children - what was the task on?
mum makes cake, leaves it on shelf.
girl comes and sees cake
takes it to room
if boy comes along, where would the cake be?
findings - what if boy had come along instead of girl
5-6 year olds: 90% correct
findings - what if girl had come along instead of boy
5-6: 20% correct
9-11: 39%
12-14: 100%
overall findings / summary
children can use real world knowledge to answer simple cf questions by 3 years
basic conditional reasoning to answer cf questions by 6 years
reason in more adult ways by 12 years
future vs past - robinson and beck
showed children a road with two garages, on at either end
toy car drove into one garage and were asked
what if hed driven the other way - where would he be?
What if he drives the other way next time? 0 where will he be
findings - past q
3 year olds: 30% correct
4 year olds: 60% correct
5 years old: 95% correct
findings - future q
3 year old: 95% correct
4 year olds: 90% correct
The mouse game - beck et al
children were shown a slide with two outlets: their job was to place cotten wool to ensure that a mouse landed safely
After the mouse slid down, tchildren were asked two questions about the future
What if next time he goes the other way?
Can you put out cotton wool (requires two possibilities)
FINDINGs
children can think about a single possibility in the future, but find it harder to think about multiple possibilities in the future
What does counterfactual thinking do to our cognitive system
it makes heavy demands on our cognitive system -
German and Nichols
told a story using picture cards, asking children one of 3 qs about it
-what if the dog hadnt squashed the flower
what if the dog hasnt escaped from the house
-what if mrs rosy hadn’t called her husband
would she be happy or sad
findings (draw out table)
Type Short Medium Long
3-year-olds 69% 20% 15%
4-year-olds 100% 86% 67%
Beck et als findings
CF performance was predicted both by inhibitoru control and by langiage abolitu
Children become better able to deal with more complex counterfactuals with age, as their general cognition improves
What does counterfactual reasoning form the baiss of?
complex emotions - like regret and relief
when do children solve basic CF tasks by
around 5 years.
Amsel et al - understanding others emotions
asked children to play a game where they chose between two cards and recieved a reward based on the card they choce
