Decision Making Flashcards
(24 cards)
Rational choice theory
Make decision by seeing how likely something is to happen, judging value of the outcome and multiplying the 2
-ie 10%chance of getting $500 vs 20% chance of getting $2000
Judging frequencies and probabilities
- we are better at judging frequencies rather than probabilities
- ie doctors predicting the chance of breast cancer based on probability vs frequency
Availability bias
Items that are more readily available in memory are judged a having occurred more frequently
Moral decision making video
- anterior Cingulate; calls on frontal lobes to resolve conflict
- we are more likely to have a problem with solutions to things that invite our emotions (ie pulling train track switch vs pushing man of bridge)
Heuristic
- fast strategies hat facilitate decision making
- availability bias is an example of this
- mental short cuts, rules of thumb
Algorithm
- rules that guarantee a solution to the problem
- opposite of heuristics
Conjunction fallacy
Two events are more likely to occur together than each individual event
- ie people think that Lisa being a bank teller and active in the feminist mvt is more likely even though it’s impossible
- ex of heuristics
Representativeness heuristic
- making a probability judgement by comparing an object or event to a prototype of the object/event
- ie people think there is a higher probability that Harry is a lawyer or engineer based on description even though it’s the same
- heuristic
Framing effects
Ppl give diff answers to the same problem depending on phrasing
- ie 70% effectiveness of a drug vs 30% failure
- same data, different conclusions
Sunk cost fallacy
Making decision based on what they already invested into the situation
-ie if you pay $100 for a concert and you get sick, you still go because you pad for it
Prospect theory-decision making error
People choose to take on risk when evaluating losses and avoid risk when evaluating gains
- simplify info and choose best value
- assumes people take risks
- ie apt is $400 per month but you get a $10 discount if you pay y certain time; vs apt is $390 and up get fined for not paying on time
Frequency format hypothesis-decision making error
Our Minds notice how frequently things occur, not how likely they Re to occur
Decision making and the brain
- prefrontal damage=less emotion during risky decision making
- insensitivity to future consequences
- healthy people=more prefrontal lobe activation
- similar effects in substance-dependent individuals
Syllogistic reasoning
Determining if a conclusion from 2 statements exists if these statements are assumed to be true
Belief bias-reaching conclusions
People tend to accept conclusions that are believable rather than logical
-syllogistic reasoning
Neuroscience of risky decision making-study
- controls-without prefrontal damage
- patients-with prefrontal damage
- learn to play card game-good deck and bad deck
- bad deck=mild electric shock
- ppl without damage could strategize to not get bad deck
Means ends analysis
- looking for means/steps to reduce differences btwn current situation and goal
1) analyze goal state
2) analyze current state
3) list differences
4) reduce differences-direct means; subgoal; find similar problem with known solution
Analogical problem solving
Solving a problem by using a solution that works for a different problem
-ie using bridge solution to laser a tumor
Insight
-restructuring problem so it becomes a solvable problem
Functional fixedness
Seeing the function of objects as fixed
-ie making a candle holder out of a match box and thumbtacks
Insight problem solvers
- right temporal lobe action 1/3 sec before solution was reported
- anterior cingulate active before solving problem
- insight used in those with positive mood
Reasoning-reaching conclusions
-organizing info into steps to reach conclusion
Practical reasoning
Figuring out what to do
Theoretical reasoning
- reasoning to arrive at a belief
- ie friend saying he won’t drive you to concert bc car is broken but then you see him there and come to conclusion that he was lying