Decision Making (chapt.7) Flashcards Preview

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Flashcards in Decision Making (chapt.7) Deck (11):
1

Decision making

a person must select one option from a number of alternatives. There is some amount of information available with respect to the option. The timeframe is relatively long (longer than a second). The choice is associated with the uncertainty; that is it is not necessarily clear which is the best option

2

Normative decision models

Multi-attribute utility theory assumes that the overall value of a decision option is the sum of the magnitude of each attribute multiplied by the utility of each attribute.

U(v) = ∑i=1 a(i) u(i)

3

Heuristic and Biases

Information Processing Limits in Decision Making Cue Reception and Integration, Hypothesis Generation and Selection, Plan Generation and Action Choice

4

Heuristics and biases in hypothesis generation, education and selection

Generation of limited Number of Hypotheses.
One and four
Availability Heuristics.
One Recent and more frequent Representativeness Heuristics.
Situation that look alike
Overconfidence.
CognitiveTunneling.
Stuck in one hypotheses
Confirmation Bias.
Seek first only confirming information

5

Heuristic and Biases in action selection

retrieve a small number of action, availability heuristic for action, availability of possible outcomes, framing bias

6

Dependency of decision making

Dependency of Decision making on the Decision Context.
Skill, Rule and knowledge-based Behavior.

7

Improving decision making

task redesign, decision support systems, decision matrices and trees, spreadsheets, simulation, expert system, displays, training

8

Heuristics and Biases in Receiving and Using Cues

Attention to a Limited Number of Cues.Cue primacy and anchoring. Inattention to Later Cues.Cue Salience .
Overweighting of Unreliable Cues.

9

Heuristics and Biases in Action Selection

Retrieve a small number of action.Availability heuristic for action. Availability of possible outcomes. Framing bias.

10

Factors Affecting Decision Making

Three Levels of Cognitive Controls (Rasmussen).
SRK (Skill, Rule, Knowledge) Model of behavior.

11

Improving Decision making

Task redesign
Decision-Support Systems
Decision Matrices and Trees
Spreadsheets Simulation
Expert System Displays
Training