decisions Flashcards
(41 cards)
judgment, reasoning and decision-making are ________ but _________ cognitive processes.
distinct; related
judgment vs reasoning vs decision-making
Judgment: Evaluating evidence
reasoning: Drawing conclusions based on evidence
Decision Making: Choosing between alternatives
what is inductive reasoning?
drawing general conclusions from specific observations and evidence
inductive reasoning has a what nature?
probabilistic nature - conclusions are likely to be true, but not definitely true
**Inductive reasoning involves making generalizations based on specific observations or evidence.
Strong arguments lead to more likely conclusions; weak arguments lead to less likely conclusions.
what 3 factors influencing strength?
1) Representativeness of Observations: How well the observations represent the category.
eg. If you’re trying to generalize about bird flight ability, and your only observation is of penguins (which don’t fly), your observation is not representative of the bird category — because most birds can fly.
2) Number of Observations: More observations strengthen the argument.
eg. Seeing 100 swans that are white gives a stronger basis than just seeing 2.
3) Quality of Evidence: Stronger evidence leads to stronger conclusions.
Inductive reasoning is used constantly in everyday life to make _______ and _______ based on _______ experiences.
predictions; choices; past
Heuristics are “_______” that help us reach conclusions rapidly, though they are not _____.
rules of thumb; foolproof
2 types of heuristics, define them.
1) availability heuristic
- Events more easily recalled are judged as more probable
- eg. Misjudging causes of death based on media publicity (plane crash vs car crash)
2) representativeness heuristic
- Judgments based on how much an event resembles other typical events while often ignoring base rate
- eg. If someone is quiet, likes books, and wears glasses, you might assume they’re a librarian rather than a salesperson — even if there are way more salespeople than librarians (ignoring base rates).
The availability heuristic relies on memory ease, while the representativeness heuristic relies on similarity to a prototype.
illusory correlations is often driven by which heuristic?
what is illusory correlations? give an example.
availability
illusory correlation - r/s btwn two events appears to exist when it does not, often due to expectations/bias influence by availability heuristic
eg. Someone believes that all women are bad drivers.
- They remember one vivid news story of an accident involving a inexperienced woman driver.
- That memorable event makes the connection feel real — even if the data don’t support it.
_________ can directly lead to stereotypes, and the _________ heuristic and ______ attention help _________ them.
Illusory correlations; availability; selective; reinforce
define stereotype. it’s usually caused by which heuristic?
Stereotypes: Oversimplified generalizations about groups, reinforced by selective attention and the availability heuristic
causal chain:
Availability Heuristic → Illusory Correlation → Stereotype
which heuristic ignores base rates? what is base rates?
Representativeness Heuristic
base rate - actual statistical frequencies or probabilities of something occurring in the general population
ignoring base rates means failing to consider what?
ignoring base rates means failing to consider the relative proportion of different classes in the population
what are the 3 biases under representative heuristic? what is the counter?
- ignoring base rate (base rate fallacy)
- ignoring actual statistical frequencies or probabilities of something occurring in the general population - Conjunction Rule Violation
- Probability of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of either event alone - incorrect Assumptions About Small Samples
- Assuming small samples are representative of the population
law of large numbers (counters the above 3 biases)
- Larger samples are more representative
When people make judgments, they often think that two events happening together (A and B) are more likely than just one of them happening alone. This is a violation of the ___________.
conjunction rule
Wason’s Number Sequence Task is a study testing what?
confirmation bias
Participants tend to test hypotheses that confirm their initial assumptions (e.g., testing more sequences with even numbers) rather than testing sequences that might disprove their hypothesis (e.g., trying an increasing sequence of odd numbers). This illustrates how confirmation bias makes people seek evidence that supports their initial beliefs and ignore evidence that could challenge or disprove them.
myside vs confirmation bias
Myside Bias: You EVALUATE evidence in a way that supports your own beliefs and ignore opposing views.
Confirmation Bias: You actively SEEK OUT information that confirms your existing beliefs and ignore or discount information that challenges them.
define backfire effect
a psychological phenomenon where people, when confronted with evidence that contradicts their beliefs, actually become more entrenched in their original views.
Rather than changing their mind based on the new information, they end up strengthening their existing beliefs.
usually an emotional response to defend their identity and world view
what is deductive reasoning?
Determining whether a conclusion logically follows from statements
syllogisms consist of ____ premises followed by a ______.
we focus on _______ syllogism. define and give an example.
2; conclusion
categorical syllogism - Involves statements about categories or groups of things. Premises and conclusion start with “All,” “No,” or “Some”.
eg.
Major Premise: All humans are mortal.
Minor Premise: Socrates is a human.
Conclusion: Socrates is mortal.
Validity vs. Truth
Validity means the conclusion logically follows the premises (focuses on structure)
truth means the statements are factually correct (focuses on content)
what is belief bias?
Tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable, rather than thinking more on whether the logic is actually valid.
to illustrate the belief bias, give an example of valid but unbelievable, and then another example of the reverse
valid but unbelievable
Premise 1: All mammals walk.
Premise 2: Whales are mammals.
Conclusion: Therefore, whales walk. (sounds wrong, but the logic flow is valid)
invalid but believable
Premise 1: All flowers need water.
Premise 2: Roses need water.
Conclusion: Therefore, roses are flowers. (but needing water doesn’t make something a flower)
mental model approach - a cognitive strategy used in ________ reasoning to evaluate _______
define the mental model approach
deductive; syllogism (two premises followed by a conclusion)
mental model approach - A specific situation mentally represented in a person’s mind to determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
