Election case studies Flashcards
(21 cards)
1
Q
Context of the 1983 election
A
- 9/6/1983; rising unemployment (over 3m); military victory over Argentina in 1982.
- Thatcher standing for second term.
- divided opposition; many Lab. moderates quit in 1981 to set up SDP, formed SDP-Liberal Alliance - posed challenge.
- Michael Foot - Lab leader
2
Q
Result of the 1983 election
A
- Tories win 13,012,316 votes, winning 397 seats; +58; -1.5% vote share; 42.4%; increased majority from 43 in ‘79 to 144; landslide.
- nationally - swing of 3.8% from Lab to Cons.
- most regional swings - outside London; Lab won 2/110 possible seats.
- Labour came third in 292/650.
- turnout = 72.7%
- Cons had 8% lead among C2 class; reduced deficit in DE (-15% to -8%); had lead among all age groups (over 55s - 20%, 18-34 - 10%)
3
Q
how did the media influence the 1983 election?
A
- the Sun encouraged reader to ‘Vote for Maggie’; personal criticism against Foot.
- Labour supported by newspapers accounting for 22% of circulation - Daily Mirror/Sunday Mirror.
- Thatcher had strong media presence; Foot perceived as less effective.
4
Q
What was the Labour manifesto like for 1983?
A
- ‘New Hope for Britain’ too left-wing.
- Foot/deputy leader issued joint statement confirming allegation of disagreement within party over defence policy; deep split.
- contained pledges of unilateral disarmament, withdrawal from EC, abolition of HoL.
5
Q
What was the Tory manifesto like for 1983?
A
- ‘Forward - the Challenge of Our Times’ - more radical.
- TU reform w/regular ballots on unions having funding/right to strike.
- expand privatisation
- radical nature matched with modern/effective campaigning; tours, television
- retain UK’s nuclear deterrent; in full support of NATO/tough line against USSR.
6
Q
What was the SDP-Liberal Alliance manifesto like for 1983?
A
- ‘Working Together for Britain’
- reduce unemployment by up to 1m.
- reform electoral system to proportional one.
- devolution for Scotland/Wales.
7
Q
How did leadership influence the 1983 election?
A
- in 4 months prior to election being announced, Thatcher took part in 16 TV interviews; Tory campaign crafter for maximum visual effect.
- Foot portrayed as left-wing/ill-suited to lead.
8
Q
What was the context of the 1997 election?
A
- resulted in change of governing party, defeating Major’s Tory gov; ended 18-year period of Tory rule.
- Major’s majority in 1992 was just 21; minority gov by 1997.
- Labour ditched many old ways; commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament out; TU reforms passed under Thatcher accepted; embraced both left-wing values/right-wing principles
- economy in recession/unemployment on rise; diminished Tory reputation for financial competence.
9
Q
What was the result of the 1997 election?
A
- tories lost over half of seats, particularly bad in London - share of vote down by 14.1%.
- Lab - 13,518,167 votes w/418 seats (+145); 43.2%.
- Cons - 9,600,943 votes w/165 seats (-171); 30.7%.
- defence minister Michael Portillo lost seat in Enfield Southgate; 17.4% swing to Labour.
- record 120 women elected - 101 Labour; +3 in minority ethnic MPs.
- Lab def Cons in every age group; 3% lead among 64+; 21% lead among 18-34.
- turnout - 71.3%.
10
Q
How did the media influence the 1997 election?
A
- the Sun switched allegiances; backed Major in ‘92; Blair had flown out to meet owner.
- pro-Tory Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph more muted on support for Major.
- pro-Lab newspapers counted for 62% of overall readership.
11
Q
What was the Labour manifesto like in 1997?
A
- broadened appeal beyond blue-collar working class.
- welfare - emphasis on personal responsibility over powerful centralised state; rights to benefits came with responsibilities.
- Law/order - pledged zero tolerance towards anti-social behaviour/petty crime.
- reform/rights - HoL, devolution, incorporation of ECHR.
- Edu - favour all-in schooling; identities abilities of individuals.
- Healthcare - cut waiting lists/NHS bureaucracy.
- economy - balancing books with gov spending; income tax not to be raised; national minimum wage.
12
Q
What was the Tory manifesto like in 1997?
A
- emphasised continuity/security; more free-market liberalism/involvement of private sector in public services.
- welfare - crackdown on benefit fraud.
- law/order - greater use of CCTV cameras.
- reform - no major constitutional changes.
- edu - publish school exam results/encourage more academic selection at secondary.
- privatisation - would extend to Royal Mail.
- economy - reduce income tax to 20%/lower business taxes.
13
Q
how did leadership influence the 1997 election?
A
- Blair seen as young, charismatic, energetic; strong appeal to younger/more middle-class voters; deputy leader Prescott from trad working class background; went straight from school to working.
- Tory campaign relied on attacking Blair, often personally; poll said 64% of general public disapproved of their poster campaign.
- strong, personal mandate can lead to PMs dealing invincible/invulnerable; like Thatcher, Blair alienated many in own party with policies such as intro of uni fees (1997)/invasion of Iraq (2003).
14
Q
What was the context of the 2019 election?
A
- brought end to 9 years of coalition, small majority, minority govs.
- Brexit referendum in 2016.
- Johnson struggled to build any unity in own party after May’s resignation in July 2019 over post-Brexit-deal; held back by FTPA - removed PM’s ability to call snap election.
- Brexit/way forward at core of campaign and where voters would place their cross; sense of frustration.
15
Q
What were the results of the 2019 election?
A
- turnout - 67.3%
- Cons - 13,966,451 votes w/365 seats (+47); 43.6%.
- Lab - 10,295,912 votes w/203 seats (-59); 32.3%.
- Lib Dems - 3,696,419 votes w/11 seats (-1); 11.5%.
- Labour’s ‘red wall’ of working-class seats fell into Tory hands.
- London - Tories lost 2 seats; most of big cities remained Labour.
- SNP took 7 seats off Tories in Scotland.
- biggest swing - 18% from Lab to Cons in Bassetlaw.
- age proved most secure indicator of voting behaviour; for very 10 years older, chance of voting Tory increased by 9; Labour - decreased by 8.
- Tories outperformed Lab in all social classes; did better among C2DE (working-class) - 48%, than ABC1 (middle-class) - 43%.
- 47% of men voted Cons, compared to 42% of women; 29% of men voted Labour, compared to 37% of women.
16
Q
how did the media influence the 2019 election?
A
- traditional/social media.
- press took sides as predicted; Express, Daily Mail, Sun rooting for Johnson.
- banner ad on Tory advert linked to 78 second vid; around 3.5m had seen it on first day of release.
- Lab spent more in FB.
- higher engagement w/content from Corbyn.
- Lab outspent Tories by £1.4m to £900,000.
- televised debates - Lib Dems/SNP kept out of main one.
- Johnson refused to take part in one-to-one interview with Andrew Neil.
17
Q
What was the Conservative manifesto like in 2019?
A
- ‘Get Brexit Done’ slogan.
- 50,000 new nurses, no rushes in income tax, VAT, NI.
- cut emissions to zero by 2050.
- no one would have to sell house to pay for adult social care.
18
Q
What was the Labour manifesto like in 2019?
A
- second referendum promised after 6 months following renegotiated deal.
- ‘the Final Say on Brexit’
- increased health spending (4.3%); national min wage to £10/h.
- ending charitable status of private schools/nationalisation of some businesses.
19
Q
What was the Lib Dem manifesto like in 2019?
A
- revoke Article 50/rejoin EU.
- 35 hours of free childcare from 9 months; giving schools extra £10bn by 2024-5.
20
Q
how did leadership influence the 2019 election?
A
- Corbyn seen as too removed from concerns of ordinary voters/too metropolitan.
- many voters in Labour’s working class seats switched vote due to personal dislike of Corbyn.
- strategic mistake - Labour sent 100a of activists to Johnson’s Uxbridge seat.
- Johnson had clear campaign; made sure to stay on message.
21
Q
What are the difference in vote shares/MPs of winning party?
A
1983 - 42.4% with 397 seats.
1997 - 43.2% with 418 seats.
2019 - 43.6% with 365 seats.
