Equity Portfolio Management Flashcards
(159 cards)
The economy’s equilibrium level of real interest rates depends on… (Select 1-3)
A) The households’ willingness to save
B) The profitability of investments in PP&E and inventories for companies
C) The government monetary policy
D) The government fiscal and monetary policy
A) The households’ willingness to save - as reflected in the supply curve of funds
B) The profitability of investments in PPE and inventories for companies - as reflected in the demand curve of funds
D) The government fiscal AND monetary policy
Which of the following is true?
A) Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate + Expected Rate of Inflation
B) Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Expected Rate of Inflation
C) Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate - Expected Rate of Inflation
B) Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Expected Rate of Inflation
In general, we can only directly observe nominal interest rates; from which, we must infer expected real rates, using inflation forecasts!
The equilibrium expected rate of return on any security is the sum of the equilibrium real rate of interest, the expected rate of inflation, and a security-specific risk premium.
TRUE/ FALSE
TRUE.
Equilibrium expected return on any security = equilibrium real interest rate + expected inflation + security-specific risk premium.
Historical returns on stocks exhibit somewhat more frequent large negative deviations from the mean than would be predicted from a normal distribution. Which of the following can help quantify the deviation from normality? A) skew of the actual distribution B) kurtosis of the actual distribution C) VaR D) lower partial standard deviation (LPSD) of the actual distribution E) A, B, C F) A, C, D G) A, B, D
G) A, B, D:
The lower partial standard deviation (LPSD), skew, and kurtosis of the actual distribution quantify the deviation from normality.
Lower partial standard deviation (LPSD): Standard deviation computed using only the portion of the return distribution below a threshold such as the risk-free rate or the sample average.
Widely used measures of tail risk are; (i) value at risk (VaR) and (ii) expected shortfall (ES). Which of the following statements are true? Select 1-4
A) VaR measures the loss that will be exceeded with a specified probability such as 1% or 5%.
B) Expected shortfall (ES) measures the expected rate of return conditional on the portfolio falling below a certain value: e.g., 1% ES is the expected value of the outcomes that lie in the bottom 1% of the distribution.
C) ES is always larger than VaR
D) VaR is always higher than ES
A) VaR measures the loss that will be exceeded with a specified probability such as 1% or 5%.
B) Expected shortfall (ES) measures the expected rate of return conditional on the portfolio falling below a certain value: e.g., 1% ES is the expected value of the outcomes that lie in the bottom 1% of the distribution.
C) ES is always larger than VaR
Risk-free rate is the rate you would earn in risk-free assets. Which of the following options is NOT a risk-free asset?
A) T-bills
B) Money market funds
C) Certificates of Deposits (CD)
D) Yield obtained from bank depositing
E) All of the above options are considered risk-free
E) All of the above options are considered risk-free
The following statement is NOT true about excess return:
A) Excess return represents the EXPECTED payment to investors for tolerating the extra risk in a given investment over that of a risk-free asset
B) Excess return is the difference in any particular period between the ACTUAL rate of return on a risky asset and the actual risk-free rate.
C) The risk premium is the expected value of the excess return.
D) The standard deviation of the excess return is a measure of its risk.
E) All options are correct
WRONG OPTION: A
Excess return represents the ACTUAL payment to investors for tolerating the extra risk in a given investment over that of a risk-free asset. It is the difference in any particular period between the ACTUAL rate of return on a risky asset and the actual risk-free rate.
Meanwhile, the RISK PREMIUM reflects the EXPECTED value of excess return.
Following is NOT true about risk-averse investors: Select 1-4
A) they prioritize the safety of principal over the possibility of a higher return on their money
B) they prefer illiquid investments
C) they generally favor municipal and corporate bonds, CDs, and savings accounts
D) they take on additional risk if the excess return is above a certain threshold
WRONG OPTIONS: B and D
B) they prefer LIQUID investments. That is, their money can be accessed when needed, regardless of market conditions at the moment.
D) they DONT take on additional risk if the excess return is above a certain threshold, because they would rather be certain not to suffer losses on their principal
Following is NOT true about normal distribution:
A) It is completely characterized by two parameters; the mean and SD
B) Investment management is far more tractable when rates of return can be well approximated by the normal distribution
C) the normal distribution is symmetric, i.e., the probability of any positive deviation above the mean is equal to that of a negative deviation of the same magnitude. Absent symmetry, the standard deviation is an incomplete measure of risk.
D) When assets with normally distributed returns are mixed to construct a portfolio, the corresponding portfolio return is not normally distributed.
E) when securities are normally distributed, the statistical relation between returns can be summarized with a single correlation coefficient. Absent normal distribution, such dependence is a complex, multilayered relationship
WRONG: D)
When assets with normally distributed returns are mixed to construct a portfolio, the portfolio return IS ALSO NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED.
The Fisher equation claims that the real rate of interest is approximately equal to the nominal interest minus inflation rate. Given this, what if inflation rate was to increase from 3% to 5%, how will this affect nominal rate and real rate of interest, given all else equal?
If inflation increases, all else equal, the real interest rate will ____.
If inflation increases, all else equal, the nominal interest rate will ____.
A) Fall, rise
B) Rise, fall
C) Fall, fall
D) Rise, rise
CORRECT: A)
If inflation increases, all else equal, the real interest rate will FALL.
If inflation increases, all else equal, the nominal interest rate will RISE.
real=nominal - inflation
nominal= real + inflation
Large historical datasets (large sample) is advantageous given a reasonably stable return distribution - why?
A) Assuming that the return distribution remains reasonably stable over the entire history, a longer sample period increases the precision of the estimate of the expected rate of return, since the standard error decreases as the sample size increases.
B) Given a volatile mean that randomly changes y-o-y in the sample, i.e., we are unable to determine the nature of this change, a large sample is still advantageous.
C) A large sample increases the expected return of the portfolio.
A) Assuming that the return distribution remains reasonably stable over the entire history, a longer sample period increases the precision of the estimate of the expected rate of return, since the standard error decreases as the sample size increases.
Explanation of B:if we assume that mean of the distribution of returns is changing over time randomly (we are unable to determine the nature of this change), the expected return must be estimated from a more RECENT part of the historical period. In this case, we must determine how far back to go in order to select the relevant sample. Thus, in this case, it is likely a disadvantage to use the entire dataset back to e.g., earlier decades such as 1880.
You are considering two alternative two-year investments:
• You can invest in a risky asset with a positive risk premium and returns in each of the two years that will be identically distributed and uncorrelated,
• or you can invest in the risky asset for only one year and then invest the proceeds in a risk-free asset.
Which of the following statements about the first investment alternative (compared with the second) are true?
a. Its two-year risk premium is the same as the second alternative.
b. The standard deviation of its two-year return is the same.
c. Its annualized standard deviation is lower.
d. Its Sharpe ratio is higher.
e. It is relatively more attractive to investors who have lower degrees of risk aversion.
c. Its annualized standard deviation is lower - se pp. 9 in exam notes
Let σ=annual st.dev.of the risky investment, and σ1 = st.dev.of the first investment alternative over the two year period. Then, σ1=√2*σ
Therefore, the annualized standard deviation for the first investment alternative is equal to:
σ1 /2 = σ /√2 < σ
If businesses become more pessimistic about future demand for their products and decide to reduce their capital spending, the real rate of interest will ______.
If households are induced to save more because of increased uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits, the real rate of interest will ______.
If the Federal Reserve Board undertakes open-market purchases of U.S. Treasury securities in order to increase the supply of money, the real rate of interest will ______.
A) rise, fall, rise
B) fall, rise rise
C) fall, fall fall
D) rise, rise rise
C)
If businesses become more pessimistic about future demand for their products and decide to
reduce their capital spending, the real rate of interest will FALL.
If households are induced to save more because of increased uncertainty about their future Social Security benefits, the real rate of interest will FALL.
If the Federal Reserve Board undertakes open-market purchases of U.S. Treasury securities in order to increase the supply of money, the real rate of interest will FALL.
You are considering the choice between investing $50,000 in a conventional 1-year bank CD offering an interest rate of 5% and a 1-year “Inflation-Plus” CD offering 1.5% per year plus the rate of inflation.
Which is the safer investment?
A) Conventional CD
B) Inflation-plus CD
C) Depends - cannot be determined based on the given information
B) Inflation-plus CD:
The safer investment will be the inflation-plus CD offering, since the investor will be appropriately compensated for any level of inflation rate to materialize over the next year. That is, the real interest rate that you will receive by investing in the inflation plus CD is 1.5% regardless of inflation.
You are considering the choice between investing $50,000 in a conventional 1-year bank CD offering an interest rate of 5% and a 1-year “Inflation-Plus” CD offering 1.5% per year plus the rate of inflation.
Can you tell which offers the higher expected return?
A) Conventional CD
B) Inflation-plus CD
C) Depends - cannot be determined based on the given information
C) Depends - cannot be determined based on the given information
The CD without inflation plus offers a higher expected return if the expected inflation rate will be lower than 3.5%. If the expected inflation rate is higher than 3.5%, then the inflation plus CD offers a higher expected return. In conclusion, the expected return on each investment depends on the expected inflation rate.
You are considering the choice between investing $50,000 in a conventional 1-year bank CD offering an interest rate of 5% and a 1-year “Inflation-Plus” CD offering 1.5% per year plus the rate of inflation.
If you expect the rate of inflation to be 3% over the next year, which is definitely the better investment?
A) Conventional CD
B) Inflation-plus CD
C) Depends - cannot be determined based on the given information
C) Depends - cannot be determined based on the given information.
All equal:
If the inflation rate is expected to be 3%, then the CD without inflation plus offers the highest expected return of 2%, versus 1.5% in the inflation-plus case.
E(r)_CD(Conventional) > E(r)_CD(Inflation Plus)
→ 2% > 1.5%
BUT, unless the inflation rate of 3% is certain, the conventional CD is yet the riskier option.
Therefore there is not a clearly/ definitely “better” investment of the two.
If we observe a risk-free nominal interest rate of 5% per year and a risk-free real rate of 1.5% on inflation-indexed bonds, can we infer that the market’s expected rate of inflation is 3.5% per year?
A) Yes
B) No
C) Depends
B) NO
We CANNOT assume that the entire difference between the risk-free nominal rate (on conventional CDs) of 5% and the real risk-free rate (on inflation-plus CDs) of 1.5% is the expected rate of inflation. Part of the difference is likely a risk premium associated with the uncertainty surrounding the real rate of return on conventional CDs. This implies that the expected rate of inflation is less than 3.5% per year.
Which risk is non-diversifiable?
A) Systematic risk
B) Non-systematic risk
Systematic risk refers to macroeconomic risks. This is a common factor that affects all security returns. The market factor, m, measures unanticipated developments in the macroeconomy.
The systematic component of a portfolio variance, β_P^2 σ_M^2 depends on the average beta coefficient of the individual securities. This part of the risk depends on portfolio beta and σ_M^2 and will persist regardless of the extent of portfolio diversification. No matter how many stocks are held, their common exposure to the market will result in a positive portfolio beta and be reflected in portfolio systematic risk. I.e., systematic risk is non-diversifiable.
Which of the following are examples of common economic factors? I.e., sources of systematic risk. Select 1-4 A) business cycles B) stock repurchase C) interest rates D) cost of natural resources
Common economic factors/“Shocks” refers to unexpected changes to macroeconomic variables that cause, simultaneously, correlated shocks in the rates of return on stocks across the entire market.
ANSWER: all options are correct except B
A scatter diagram plots returns of one security versus _____.
A) its price
B) returns of another security or benchmark
C) excess return of the same security, relative to the risk-free rate
D) excess return of the same security, relative to market excess return
CORRECT: B)
A scatter diagram plots returns of one security versus returns of another security (or benchmark such as a market). Each point represents one PAIR of returns for a given holding period.
A regression equation describes the average relationship between a dependent variable and one or more explanatory variables. In this context, residuals captures______
A) Parts of stock returns are not explained by the explanatory variable. They measure the impact of firm-specific events during a particular period.
B) The risks that are non-diversifiable and therefore not captured by the explanatory variables.
A regression equation describes the average relationship between a dependent variable and one or more explanatory variables. In this context, residuals capture Parts of stock returns not explained by the explanatory variable. They measure the impact of firm-specific events during a particular period.
A IS CORRECT
A security characteristic line (SCL) plots_____
A) the excess return on a security over the risk-free rate as a function of the excess return on the market.
B) the excess return on a security against its price
C) the returns of one security against the return of another security
D) the return of a security against the excess return of the same security relative to the risk-free rate
A) IS CORRECT:
A security characteristic line (SCL) plots the excess return on a security over the risk-free rate as a function of the excess return on the market.
Following is NOT true about the Information Ratio:
A) It is a version of a reward-to-risk ratio (another example is Sharpe).
B) It divides the alpha of the portfolio by the systematic risk of the portfolio.
C) It quantifies the trade-off between alpha and diversifiable risk, and it measures abnormal return per unit of risk that in principle could be diversified away by holding a market.
D) All of the above are true
WRONG: B & D
B) It divides the alpha of the portfolio by the NON-systematic risk of the portfolio. This is the firm-specific risk of the portfolio, called “tracking error” in the industry - which CAN be diversified away. Thus, IR quantifies the trade-off between alpha and diversifiable risk, and it measures abnormal return per unit of risk that in principle could be diversified away by holding a market.
IR = α_p/ σ(e_P )
What are the advantages of the index model compared to the Markowitz procedure for obtaining an efficiently diversified portfolio? What are its disadvantages?
Advantages:
- Reduced number of estimates required – the large number of estimates required for the Markowitz procedure can result in large aggregate estimation errors when implementing the procedure.
- Takes into account specialization of labor in security analysis. An advantage of the index model (relative to Markowitz model) is its simple way of computing covariances across industries.
Disadvantage:
- The index model’s assumption that return residuals are uncorrelated. This assumption will be incorrect if the index omits a significant risk factor.