exam p.3 Flashcards
(26 cards)
What looks only at patterns and projects those patterns to make forecasts?
sales history
What is the horizontal sales history as if famed was state with no trend, seasonality, or noise in the sales data?
level
What is the continuing pattern of increasing or decreasing sales presented as a line or curve
trend
what is a yearly pattern of increasing or decreasing sales that corresponds to the season
seasonality
what is the part of sales fluctuation that appears random and cannot be explained because the pattern has not occurred consistently in the past?
noise
What is between sales and outside factors that decline after implementing a price increase or sales?
relationships
Sales forecaster need datasets that includes what on each factor and sales volume ?
past history
Did decreasing consumer confidence in the economy lead to decreasing sales ?
yes
Do women spend more on clothing compared to men?
no
Did sales drop off after a price increase?
yes
did stores located in metropolitan areas sell more small sizes than stores located in rural areas?
no
Some of the data needed for sales forecasting comes from?
government
Qualitative techniques tap into what people in the organization?
expertise
what forecasts derived from quantitive techniques ?
fine tuning
Forecasting has new products when historical data is?
not available
forecasting long range or at the
corporate level
what attempts to represent the consensus of the experts
best guess scenarios
what participants do not know who other responders are in order to ?
remove the bias of group dynamics
what responses are summarized in subsequent rounds in a series of responses?
refine and clarify the issues
If consumer confidence is down, manufactures anticipate that consumer will spend?
less
When unemployment is high consumer confidence is?
low
Consumer Sentiment Index is equal to
the index of consumer sentiment
What is manage by the survey research center at the university of michigan
the index of consumer sentiment
what uses a survey of 5,000 household
consumer confidence index