final Flashcards

Question

What are the types of case studies?

Answer 1

Descriptive: provide a detailed account of a a foreign policy event or outcome Explanatory: seek to explain why a particular decision was made Comparative: compare two or more cases to identify patterns Theory testing: use a case to test existing theory Theory building: draw on specific foreign policy outcomes/events to develop new theories

Answer 2

Selecting a case Defining the research question Gathering data Analyzing decision making Applying theoretical frameworks Drawing conclusion

Answer 3

"a method that attempts to identify the intervening causal process - the causal chain and causal mechanism - between an independent variable or variables and the outcome of the dependent variable" "as a tool of causal inference, process tracing confuses on the unfolding of events or situations over time. Yet grasping this unfolding is impossible if one cannot adequately describe an event or situation at one point in time. Hence, the descriptive component of process tracing begins not with observing change or sequence but rather taking good snapshots at a series of specific moments." Ex. Why did the Trudeau government impose tariffs on US goods? 20 years ago, it would have been unthinkable so in order to understand what is happening, process tracing would help picture everything This is a reaction to the other states - retaliatory tariffs The process is clear, go back a few months and look at what happened, look at the solutions that were tried

Answer 4

A way to condense knowledge "a theory is a useful way to condense knowledge. A theory argues that there is a relationship between concepts that is, abstract ideas that represent qualities in the world" All theories should have observable implications, i.e. things we would expect to see if a theory is correct Theories should also be falsifiable; it should also be clear what type of evidence would suggest a theory is incorrect Theories that do not offer clear predictions about states' foreign policy behavior make it difficult to assess their merits or compare them to other theories Ex. Individuals and Canadian FP How do you know if an individual leader matters You would expect FP to look different under different leaders Variation along people even in the same party

Answer 5

Multi-casual explanations are common in foreign policy analysis Few foreign policy outcomes can be explained by one factor/variable alone Importance of identifying which factors are likely to be most important, providing theoretical justification Ex. Allision's essence of decision Model 1 - rational actor model, model 2 - organizational process model, and model 3 - bureaucratic politics model

Answer 6

Multilevel explanations also a hallmark of FPA Consider the international level, state level, individual level Factors at one level can interact with and influence other levels, creating complex webs of causation Considering how variables at different levels interact provides a more nuanced account of foreign policy outcomes

Answer 7

The strategy or approach chosen by the national government to achieve its goals in its relations with external entities. This includes decisions to do nothing A set of actions of rules governing the actions of an independent political authority deployed in the international environment… including actions, reactions, and inaction, which may be ad hoc or repeated… or the specific conception that a state has of its place in the world Is this an action, reaction, inaction or a one time thing

Answer 8

1. International system 2. Societal environment 3. Government setting 4. Bureaucratic roles of policymakers 5. Individual characteristics of FP elites

Answer 9

Case studies have long been popular and valuable method for conducting foreign policy analysis A case study is a "well-defined aspect of a historical episode that the investigator selects for analysis" In FPA, a case study examines a specific action, reaction, or a case of inaction it might be a single event or a pattern of behavior

Answer 10

A case is an instance of a class or subclass of events A class of events can be a foreign policy outcome, a type of behavior, a change in attitude, etc. A single event may be a case of many different things; scholars may study the same event, but treat it as a case of different phenomena A single event may include multiple cases of a single phenomenon Importance of being clear about the phenomenon of interest You can never include every event of a case The goal is to zero in on something significant

Answer 11

Allow for deep contextual understanding of particular outcomes or types of outcomes Exploring causal mechanisms(e.g. distinguish correlation from causation) Assessing complex causal relationships (e.g. path dependence) Deriving new hypotheses, alternative explanations for observed phenomena (e.g. causes of conscription in Russia vs. Ukraine

Answer 12

After WWII, Japan formally adopted a pacifist foreign policy; scholars continue to debate the significance and impact of this policy Some scholars stress the impact of institutional and legal constraints (e.g. Article 9 of the constitution) Constructivists emphasize the impact of culture, norms, and national identity, especially a culture of anti-militarism Realist focus on alliances, regional security dynamics, and the balance of power in East Asia to explain Japanese foreign and defence policy Studying debates about Japanese remilitarization polices show how different theoretical perspective can be applied to explain foreign policy outcomes Realists (e.g. Lind) argue that Japan does not actually have a pacifist foreign policy it only looks that way because Japan engages in buck-passing Most scholars agree that US security guarantees are key enabler of Japan's restrained defence and security policy Yet hard power and regional security considerations interact with public opinion, institutional constraints, domestic political dynamics, and a culture of anti-militarism to shape outcomes Importance of looking at multiple factors across levels of analysis to explain Japanese defence and security policy

Answer 13

The peace clause of the Japanese constitution formally renounces war Article 9, Constitution of Japan

Answer 14

The Yoshida Doctrine emerged in 1950s and has shaped Japanese foreign policy into the 21st century Close ties with the US, reliance on US security guarantees via the 1951 Mutual Security Treaty Strong focus on economic growth; prioritizing post-war economic recovery over military buildup Japan self-defense Forces established in 1954; emphasis on self-defense and civilian control

Answer 15

Institutional and legal constraints as a response to Japan's defeat in WWII More than 2.5 million Japanese killed during WWII Cities and industrial capacity largely destroyed; 66 cites firebombed; 2 nuclear bombs detonated First time being defeated by a foreign power Us-lead allied occupation from 1945 until 1952 Transition to constitutional monarch in 1947 Hiroshima & Nagasaki August 6 and 9th, 1945 Chosen because they were urban areas Wanting to put the war to the end quickly and with as little deaths as possible Demonstration effect - wanting to show the USSR Racism This would feed into the countries commitment to pacifism

Answer 16

Americans primarily responsible for drafting the 1947 constitution Prevalence of ethnocentric nationalism Strong group loyalty and decentralized decision-making fosters mutual accommodation among leading institutions Relative absence of war guilt Rules are open to interpretation; legal and constitutional change are possible (e.g. 1992 International Peace Cooperation Act) Ex. The Yasukuni Shrine Controversy Includes people convicted of War Criminals

Answer 17

Japanese national identity; Japan as a democracy as a "peace nation" Strong national culture of anti-militarism; visible in public opinion and position to changes in Japanese defence policy Norms against militarism shape the policy making process Relatively weak regional security institutions; emphasis on national culture, identity, and norms Strong culture of anti-militarism creates significant constraints for policy makers (e.g. public opinion in response to the Gulf War crisis) Commitment to not using force is more important then another state's sovereignty Heavy reliance on US security guarantees, including American nuclear "umbrella" Structures of Japan Self-defense forces designed to complement US capabilities; primarily defensive capabilities, not offensive Culture can change, through it tends to be incremental Depends on continuance of security cooperation with the US Japan & UN peacekeeping International peace cooperation Act

Answer 18

Lind argues that scholars underestimate Japan's military capabilities; Japan less pacifist than many assume GDP per capita (approx. 1%) is a misleading statistic* it was true in 2004, now it is more like 10th in spending Better to look at capabilities and total defense spending Japan's totally defense expenditures are significant; its navy and air force are formidable

Answer 19

Realists are united by a focus on anarchy and its effects on state behavior; security trumps other foreign policy considerations Realists can be divided into offensive and defensive camps Offensive realism suggest that great powers will seek regional hegemony; want to have more influence, more control in their region, not always Defensive realism suggests that states must be vigilant, but expansionism is usually counter-productive; defense is easier than offense

Answer 20

Conquest: offensive strategy aimed at expansion and regional hegemony Band wagoning: offensive strategy in which a state jumps on the band with the majority Balancing: defensive strategy in which states focus more on balancing the influences of others Buck-passing: defensive strategy where a state has a powerful ally and outsource as much as their security as they can * "States are more likely to choose a buck passing strategy when geography or military technology makes them less vulnerable to immediate invasion. Buck-passing is also particularly appealing to countries that are relatively secure, and to those that have powerful allies that can contain foreseeable threats" * US-Japan Security Cooperation Pacifism or buck-passing?

Answer 21

Lind (2004) argues that scholars underestimate Japan's military capabilities; Japan less pacifist than many assume Proportion of GDP (approx. 1%) is a misleading statistic Better to look at capabilities and total defense spending Japan's total defense expenditures are significant; its navy and air force are formidable

Answer 22

Buck-passing: defensive strategy in which threats are recognized, but a state does as little as possible balance them, relying on others instead More likely when geography or military technology makes a state less vulnerable to immediate invasion Appealing to countries that are relatively secure and to those with powerful allies that can contain foreseeable threats Lind argues that Japan's security relationship with the US has allowed it to engage in buck-passing, not norm-driven pacifism

Answer 23

International Peace cooperation Act allowed for overseas deployments in Un peace operations and for humanitarian missions 2013 National Security Strategy: "proactive contribution to peace" Legislation pass in 2015 to allow for "collective self-defense" operations 2022 Defense Buildup Program (target 2% GDP); increased in defense spending last 13 consecutive years; 2024 decision to relax rule on arms exports, including fighter jet parts

Answer 24

Voters concerned about threats; more open to higher defense spending, but Article 9 remains Yet public opinion still constrains turn towards new goals and capabilities Example: 73% still oppose acquisition of nuclear weapons Doubling defense spending has significant budgetary implications

Answer 25

Suspicion of revisionist "ideologues" other social, cultural, and political objectives Questions about threat analysis; public resistance to US pressure to re-arm Persistent cultural of anti-militarism Example: Recruitment challenges for Japan's self-defense forces

Answer 26

International: reliability of US security guarantees; regional security dynamics National: shifting culture of anti-militarism; fiscal and demographic constraints Individual: cross-cutting beliefs and priorities of key Japanese policy makers (e.g. revisionist vs. pacifist vs. 'proactive pacifists')

Answer 27

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation are often described as foreign policy failures Total cost more than $1 trillion; at least 200,000 killed; effects still felt across the region Explaining these events requires a multi-level explanation that accounts for factors across different levels of analysis Key factors at the international/systemic level include unipolarity and US primacy; differences in regime type Heated disagreements among realists and liberals about how to explain the war Key factors at the domestic level include neoconservative ideology, post 9/11 sense of vulnerability, 1% doctrine, and over-estimating probability of success In addition to systemic/international causes, inter-related factors operating at the other lvels of analysis contributed to the US decision to invade Iraq and hampered post-war planning At the domestic level, bureaucratic rivalries between government agencies and departments skewed decision-making At the small group level, groupthink and anticipatory compliance curtailed options under consideration At the individual level, the leadership styles of President Bush and his key advisors skewed deciison and caused critical informaiton to be overlooked

Answer 28

Iraqi defeat in the 1991 Gulf War, following operation desert storm UN security council established a process to oversee destruction of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program Inspections 1991-1998 resulted in destruction of chemical, biological weapons, and nuclear-related equipment and materials History of partial Iraqi compliance New commission established in 1999 to continue monitoring and verification: United Nations Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission Escalating tension and allegations of non-compliance through 2002-2003 Executive Chairman, Hans Blix, reported that in the buildup to war, Saddam Hussein and the Iraqis were cooperating with Un inspections

Answer 29

On 20th March 2003 the Us and its allies launched Operation Iraqi Freedom Began with a "shock and awe" bombing campaign, following by ground invasion by 160,000 coalition troops Combat operation declared over by President Bush No weapons of mass destruction found Violent insurgency post-invasion More than 200,000 Iraqi civilians dead 4,400 US and allied troops killed Prolonged period of violence and instability in Iraq and surrounding region Human rights violations and alleged war crimes (e.g. Abu Ghraib prison scandal)

Answer 30

Prominent realist scholars (e.g. John Mearsheimer and Kenneth Waltz) vocally opposed the US invasion Realist argued that it was unnecessary, imprudent, and did not serve US national interests Threat inflation and unintended consequences Some argued that the invasion was a result of unconstrained post-Cold War liberalism expansionism Misguided attempt to spread freedom and democracy via regime change

Answer 31

The notion that the war was a product of liberalism is misleading. Iraq war was straightforwardly the result of the pursuit of American hegemonic primacy. Its origins flowed readily from an ancient and prominent body of realist though that argues that international order comes from concentrations of power, rather than from shifting balances of power Liberals argue the refusal to abide by UN security Council decision was inconsistent with liberal internationalism Focus instead on WMDs and existential security threats US pursuit of hegemonic primacy Disdain for multilateral institutions; willingness to resolve disputes by force

Answer 32

Prevalence of neo-conservative ideology among top decision makers: Ideological orientation that selectively combines elements of both realist and liberal thought Implications for both domestic and foreign policy Origins in the 1970s; response to US failure in Vietnam and protests Strategic spread and promotion of these ideas through 1980s and 1990s Moral clarity and certainty about American role in the world; good vs. evil US should maintain military pre-eminence; benevolent US hegemony US should be willing to leverage military power and use force in its foreign policy Deep skepticism about international law and multilateral institutions Post 9/11 sense of vulnerability: Collective sense of vulnerability after the September 11th terrorist attacks Attempts to link Saddam Hussein with Al-Qaeda US congressional support; reluctance to be seen as soft on national security Opinion polls in late 2002 showed more than 50% of Americans favored invading Iraq The 1% doctrine: Probability estimate that guides foreign policy actions Even if there is only a 1% chance of a grave threat materializing, it must be treated as a certainty Overestimating the probability of success: Assumption that Iraqis would greet coalition troops as liberators Overly optimistic planning assumptions re. number of troops Limited and confused planning for post-war Iraq

Answer 33

Collection of principles and rationales guiding US foreign policy: Unilateralism; willingness to act without UN approval Pre-emptive use of force; US right secure itself before an attack occurs Regime change; spreading freedom and democracy by removing autocrats

Answer 34

Bureaucratic poltics models stress the impact of bureaucratic role, position, and organziational mission actors' policy positionns laregly determined by their position within government; 'where you stand dependson where you sit' different departments and agencies seek to advance conflciting interests, maximize power relative to other parts of the bureaucracy

Answer 35

President Bush's principal advisors were competing to develop policy substantive differences on policy including multilateralism and use of force bargaining and conflict among advisors produced competing factions and subgroups based on preferred policies (e.g. DOD vs. dept. of state) crisis magnifies loyalty to in-groups, animosity towards outgroups

Answer 36

In hierarchical settings, group members understand the preferences of their superior(s) and are motivated to support them (e.g. Rice as National Security Advisor) Go along with a leaders preferences without even being explicity told to anticipatory compliance exacerbated bt intragroup confict; strategy for seeking advantage

Answer 37

1. Belief in ability to control events; activist policy agendas, less willing to compromise 2. Conceptual complexity; see more nuances and shades of grey, seek out alternative opinions 3. distrust; conviciton that statements and actions of others tend are often insincere 4. ingroup bias; perception that one's own group is best of commitment to maintaining its status 5. need for power; desire to influence, control, or dominate others, suppression of dissent 6. self-confidence; less sensitive to information from the environment, less willing to adapt 7. task emphasis; focus on task completion vs. feeling and needs of others

Answer 38

Shannon and Keller find significant variation in leadership styles among key advisors in the Bush administration They aruge that this variation helps explain willingness to violate established norms (e.g. state sovereignty) Example: belief in ability to control events correlated with willingness to use force against Iraq

Answer 39

Mitchell and Massoud identity several key elements of president Bush's leadership style: Hierarchical decision-making sturcutes insular; preference for advice from close advisors preference for acting on gut instinct; rapid, ad hoc decision-making action-oriented; reluctance to change a decision once made

Answer 40

FPA must adapt to account for three inter-related trends: the global rise of populism; third-wave of autocratization; and changes in the media and information environment The rise of populism has implications for how foreign policy is formulated, the substance of foreign policy, and how states view world order Democratic backsliding have systemic implications for foreign policy; potential for the liberal zone of peace to shrink Within democracies, changes in the media and information environment cast doubt on established foreign policy patterns among democracies

Answer 41

1. Global rise of populism, especially right-wing popularism 2. Third wave of autocratization and implies for democratic peace theory 3. Changes in the media and information environment

Answer 42

A thin ideology that separates society into two 'homogeneous and antagonistic' groups; the pure people vs the corrupt people Argues that politics should be an expression of the general will i.e. the will of the people Typically paired with a 'host' ideology, yielding right-wing or left-wing variants of populism

Answer 43

Wajner et al. argues that the current global wave of populism primarily right-wing and to varying degrees authoritarian Authoritarian populism combines anti-elitism and people-centrism with nationalism, majoritarianism (even at the expense of minority rights), and decisionism (weaken the normal process to make foreign policy decisions) Authoritarian populism tends to weaken democratic institutions over time; contributes to democratic backsliding Authoritarian populism has implications for 1. Politics: centralizing and personalizing foreign policy: Skeptical of foreign policy elites, especially diplomats Work to marginalize expert advisors Foster cult of leadership with global audiences Dispense with political procedures and deliberations; leader-centric meetings Example: Trump and the War in Ukraine 2. Policies: emphasize national sovereignty Emphasis on sovereignty; less willing to negotiate or compromise Co-existence of pragmatic policy with rhetorical confrontation Reject internal or external limitations of popular sovereignty (e.g. human rights law) Tendency to reject historical responsibilities Example: Brexit - recapturing British sovereignty 3. Polities: contesting international institutions and the liberal international order Vocal opposition to multilateralism and international institutions Global governance as a target of politicization and mobilization Pushback against international bureaucracies and transnational elites Create 'alternative' institutions and orders Example: Orban's Pro-sovereignty world order

Answer 44

Rise of authoritarian populism raises questions about democratic backsliding System-level implications of having fewer democracies; smaller zone of peace - democratic peace theory

Answer 45

Assumptions about informational symmetries between public and foreign policy elites Public generally not interested; elites relatively free to act Public only becomes interested when there is signal attention is warranted (e.g. high causality rates) Role of media in attracting public attention Example: the CNN effect: dramatic, widely-available video footage of human suffering creates pressure for governments to act Example: the 'living room war' - Vietnam War (1955-1975)

Answer 46

'soft news' and hollowing out of the media's overseas reporting capacity Rise of cable and satellite news; pressure to specialize based on distinct audience tastes and differentiate from competitors Media fragmentation; rise of partisan news erodes the 'information commons' Era of hyper-fragmentation accelerated by the internet and social media; users 'walled off' from dissonant messaging

Answer 47

People are not getting information to hold their leaders accountable There's less reason to believe the democracies will now be held accountable and therefore be peaceful

Answer 48

Growing political polarization affects foreign policy by marking it harder to: 1. Secure cross-partisan support for ambitions initiatives 2. Agree on lessons to be learned from foreign policy failures 3. Maintain long-term commitments vis-a-vis allies and adversaries; risk of dramatic policy swings 4. Guard against foreign interference in domestic political system