Israeli Invasions

Question 1

Briefly explain timeline of Israeli invasions/immediate causes for each.

Answer 1

First Israeli Invasion: (Mar-Oct 1978)
- In 1978, PLO sneak into Israel and massacre a busload of Israelis -> Israel uses this as justification to invade - > AIM is to establish “10km buffer zone” on border -> instead occupy about 10% of country.
- UNIFIL created FOR THIS INVASION -> Israel forced to cooperate in part -> withdraws, but trains Christian Haddad militia to take its place -> These Christians declare region “independent” and ban Lebanese army from entering
- RESULT, then, is to DE FACTO ANNEX LEBANESE TERRITORY VIA PROXY -> essentially pulls a Donetsk / Luhansk situation, sparks violation of Lebanese sovereignty
- First concrete actions towards Christian secessionism
- Results in Christians mobilizing for statehood -> start spreading Unionist propaganda that Muslims would “exterminate” them all. Israel calls Syrian shelling of East Beirut “prelude to a Holocaust.”

Second Israeli Invasion: (June to Sept 1982)
- Abrupt and total (of southern half) -> UN ceasefire declared after outrage, means that Israel now controls the southern half
- Bring in Maronites as reinforcements -> STATED GOAL IS TO EXPEL THE PLO -> lay siege to West Beirut for months where PLO are amply provisioned w/ families
- “Black Thursday” when Ariel Sharon orders carpet bombing of WB -> 500 die, including many civilians. Internal Israeli outcry -> Demand end to war and bring down government -> siege ends w/ Israeli victory because PLO are ordered to evacuate by UN and this is supervised under international watch.
- After PLO expelled, (likely) Syrian forces assassinate the NEWLY ELECTED (in an election boycotted by Muslims) Bashir Gemayel. Trigger for massacre (pretty much exactly like Rwanda)
- PLO are gone, West Beirut is exposed and Maronites commit Sabra and Shatila massacres -> Israel specifically invades AGAIN (violating ceasefire) and tells Christians that PLO did this.

Question 2

What were the forces behind rising Christian nationalism/secessionism?

Answer 2

1. “Phoenician” identity -> ethnic label that is separate from “Arab” (Though they ARE Arabs)
   
   2. High finance / bourgeois lifestyle -> politically and economically have dispossessed many of the Muslims in country -> DO NOT WANT TO GIVE UP POWER OR PROPERTY -> ARE FEARFUL OF SYRIAN INVASION AND PLO LED REVOLUTION THAT WOULD LIBERATE SUNNI MUSLIMS. (Christians are NOT worried about Israeli invasion sparked by PLO, that’s SYRIA’s problem -> are afraid of PLO terrorists sparking a Sunni revolution and coming for them).
   3. Israeli encouragement after invasion -> call Syrian invasion “prelude to a Holocaust”
   4. Chamoun (NLP Tigers) being defeated by Gemayel and Phalangists in intra-community skirmishes. Phalangists assume control over ALL Lebanese Christians on a community level (Like PIRA becoming more important than OIRA)
   5. Series of Demands:
      a. Quebec-like autonomy for Christian ministate
      b. Kick out PLO and Palestinians (Remove threat of PLO/LNM-led revolution AGAINST Christian hegemony)
      c. End Syrian occupation (Remove threat of pan-Arab state).

Question 3

Up until the first Israeli invasion (so 1975-82), Hiro claims that standards of living ROSE for many Lebanese. Why?

Answer 3

• Diaspora workers in the Arab oilfields / Gulf -> send home ridiculous amounts of money (as with Bourgeois Christians who flee country) (Post-OPEC)
• $4b in foreign currency reserves (WAS banking capital of Middle East)
• Per capita income ROSE from 1400 to 2000$, minimum wage also rises significantly
• Militias on ALL sides had substantial foreign backers (LF, Israel + US -> LNM, Arab states, Syria -> PLO, Arab states)
• Palestinian economy generates 15% of country’s GDP, “with the total PLO budget being probably higher than the Lebanese government’s” (100 schools, hospitals, bureaucracy, etc.)
• Requisitions + looting actually stripped WEALTHY bourgeois and brought this wealth down to working class.
• FINANCIAL BURDEN OF WAR IS NOT PLACED ENTIRELY ON STATE, BECAUSE OF THESE PRIVATE MILITIAS -> a kind of “liberal economic” / privatized war.

Question 4

Explain the LF’s pivot away from Israel backing into Syrian alliance

Answer 4

• Israel’s plan to prop up a Christian min-state was flawed, because ultimately Christians ARE Arabs -> Are NOT settler colonial population and are instead racially/natively tied to the land -> had initial interest in pan-Arabism before that threatened their political power. Still don’t know if I buy this…
• Likewise, Syria wants to PRESERVE STATUS QUO in Lebanon, because other wise a PLO backed govt could spark a regional war w/ Israel, or the LNM could unleash an anti-despot wave of revolution.
• Anyway, Amal (Syria’s militia????????) surges and captures most of Beirut. Hezbollah appear in the vacuum that was once held by PLO BEFORE EXPLSION UNDER UN SUPERVISION -> Israel unable to invade again because its a democracy and its electorate doesn’t want to, also would be immensely costly at this point in time (weakened Christian state, etc., also no more PLO)
• All this means that LF is left high and dry against Hezbollah this time/Shias. Turn back to Syria to get beneficial ceasefire.
• Assad gets out of this the PREVENTION of an official treaty between Christians/Lebanese state (which would have solidified the alliance).
• Hobeika is an extremist, SPLITS the LF from the Phalangists and wants to later reunite w/ Israel. Will come undone later when Gemayel takes out Hobeika’s factions in a self-coup, will later hand power to Aoun.
• Lastly, Israel had establish SOUTH LEBANON ARMY as buffer state -> Southern Christians, but geographically detached from the LF/etc. by Hezbollah and Amal.

Question 5

What were the main reasons that the Tripartite Accords (Sunningdale) failed?

Answer 5

• Intra-Christian fighting -> radicals/Israeli wing under Hobeika vs Amin Gemayel and the moderates -> Amin stages self-coup to boot Hobeika out of this.
• Basically, quote about how so varied were the interested parties, and so varied their FOREIGN BACKERS that there is no resolution possible (basically, foreign meddling promotes intrigue and prevents peace).
• Israel and America failed to “IMPOSE THE CHRISTIAN-WESTERN HEGEMONY ON LEBANON” in the wake of 1982 Israeli invasion success.
• Likewise, Syrian-Iranian-Muslim bloc did “NOT SUCCEDE IN ALTERING THE 1943 POWER-SHARING FORMULA TO REFLECT THE CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATES.”
• Amin Gemayel constitutional crisis where he can’t find a replacement in time that will satisfy both extremists and moderates, steps down in favour of general Aoun, who he illegally appoints as PRIME MINISTER -> “temporary” military government.