Pax Syriana

Question 1

What had the Lebanese economy turned into by the late eighties?

Answer 1

1. By mid 80s, public and private capital reserves (once very high) were exhausted
2. Severe infrastructure damage/destruction (no more manufacturing)
3. 1985-86 oil crash, means migrant workers return home and ramp up unemployment (in addition to halting their flow of capital to their families)
4. Removal of PLO from West Beirut, which had contributed something like fifteen percent of the national GDP. Also took Saudi, Iraqi investors/funds with them.
5. FAILURE OF LEBANESE STATE TO COLLECT TAXES AND NATIONALIZED UTILITY BILLS -> ENTIRE GROUPS CONTROLLED AND ADMINISTERED TO BY PARAMILITARIES AND THE “PARALLEL ECONOMY”
   - BEIRUT IS CONTROLLED ENTIRELY BY PARAMILITARIES OF BOTH SIDES, who administer taxes to their subjects / etc. Control different parts of the Port of Beirut.
   - “East Beirut was a semi-independent region, from which Syrian troops stationed in Lebanon were mostly absent.[8] It had its own security and legal apparatus, with the LF also providing the local population with subsidized services, including public transport, education and healthcare among others. The canton had more than 60% of the country’s industrial capacity.[10] In 1976, to finance its war effort, the LF established the “National Treasury” in order to manage its revenue, mainly through direct taxation of the canton’s population, among other sources.”

Question 2

Give an overview of the “War of Liberation: Aoun Style”

Answer 2

• Aoun appointed by Amin Gemayel (illegally) as temporary military govt, turns out to be a Trump-like figure. Shadow govt/anti-Pope president elected when his term comes up (Hrawi), but does not step down -> war
• BEFORE civil war, Aoun seizes control of PARAMILITARY ASSETS from LF in Beirut (starts getting state income back) AND begins “war of liberation” against occupying Syria. Syria cannot intervene in East Beirut w/o causing mass bloodshed
• CIVIL War is over TWO CAMPS:
  1. Aoun, who does NOT WANT TO CEDE POWER TO MUSLIMS
  2. Hrawi who DOES BECAUSE HE RECOGNIZES THEY ARE BEATEN. Muslims now backed by Syria in full, Israeli/western support is gone -> want to accept Taif accords while they can still enjoy about 50% power sharing.
• Hundreds die. Syria + LNM/Hezbollah sit this one out, waiting for Christians to devour e/o.
• War ends in stalemate, but Hrawi end up the victor because all western backing is shifted to him. This is because Aoun had been supported by Saddam Hussein, and Hussein just made the mistake of invading Kuwait.
• Forced into ceasefire but fights till end in Battle-of-Berlin style showdown at presidential palace. Specifically US allows Syria to use airpower, where this had been red line.
• Hrawi govt becomes only legitimate authority of Lebanon.

Question 3

Describe some of the steps/challenges in the Peace Process

Answer 3

• Unifying Beirut (tearing down Green Line -> as significant to fall of the Berlin Wall) -> also means expelling paramilitaries from here, successful, but don’t disarm Hezbollah/.
• Final peace treaty is between Amal + Hezbollah, effectively ending the fighting.
• 750,000 had emigrated, most of them Christian.
• Amnesty from war crimes -> pre 1991 (like troubles), but not for assassinations and massacres (unlike Troubles?) -> reintegration of Amal and LF forces into the Armed Forces.

Question 4

What is Syria’s role in the peace process, why is it “ascendant”?

Answer 4

• Syria has ultimate power here -> backed / has sanction of the U.S. and allies -> pressures paramilitaries into decommissioning -> In this sense, Syria WON OUT OF ISRAEL in terms of what peace they wanted -> in fact gets a more stabilized version / Arab-friendly version of the status quo, like they were seeking at the start.
• U.S. HAD backed Israeli version (ie, buffer state in south, Christian Israeli 2.0 in the north/Mount Lebanon, but failed in this regard (Gemayel assassination, Israeli government collapse, etc.).
• External resolved by defeating PLO remnants/Amal in battle in early 90s -> PLO collapsed politically here too because of Hussein support.
• Resolves internal conflict (ie, lack of fair Muslim political representation w/ new constitution) and external (ie, peace treaty signed between Israel and Lebanon in which Lebanon would provide guarantees for no more armed groups on borders -> Hezbollah technically decommissioned, so SLA no longer has need to exist).
• “IN SHORT, WHILE A WASHINGTON-DAMASCUS AGREEMENT IN SEPTEMBER 1990 LEADING TO THE OVERTHROW OF AOUN HAD LAID A FIRM BASE FOR A LASTING SOLUTION TO THE DOMESTIC ASPECT OF THE SIXTEEN-YEAR LEBANESE CRISIS (IE, LACK OF MUSLIM POLITICAL REPRESENTATION),ONLY A US-ISRAELI UNDERSTANDING TO LINK AN ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM SOUTH LEBANON WITH THE SIGNING OF A LEBANESE-ISRAELI PEACE TREATY HELD A REALISTIC PROMISE OF RESOLVING THE EXTENERAL ASPECT OF THE CRISIS [ie, ISRAEL BEING THREATENED BY PLO/NOW HEZBOLLAH AND PERHAPS INVADING].”
• That said, Hezbollah survive in some remnant and eventually rise to become what they are today (but PLO gone, so Israel I guess okay w/ it.