Lecture 15 - Managing impacts climate change

Question 1

precipitation differences

Answer 1

-20% sub sahara

+20% some areas N.America

Question 2

species losses and gains

Answer 2

tropics = narrower thermal tolerances, unlikely to adapt

• change within envelope = can adapt
• magnitude and pace of change = exceeds tolerances and evolution time

Question 3

phenology

Answer 3

timing of seasonal activities in animals and plants

- arrival of migrants, appearance, breeding

Question 4

relating phenology to climate change

Answer 4

• over 57 yrs, UK laying date related to temp/rainfall for 31/36 bird species
  temp decrease = later laying date
• North Atlantic oscillation = measures NH climate
• phonological anomalies in Germany correlate with spring air temp and NAO

Question 5

detecting phenology changes

Answer 5

compare across long term data, monitoring surveys, control confounding variables

Question 6

detecting changes - date arrival migrants

Answer 6

earlier arrival, leave later

- 20 migrant bird species, advanced 8 days

Question 7

detecting changes - 1st butterflies appearance

Answer 7

earlier

longer duration = 3-5wks, more mating chance

Question 8

detecting changes - 1st breeding

Answer 8

laying dates - 51 earlier, 14 later

don’t respond the same

Question 9

benefits of change

Answer 9

• exploit favourable climates earlier
• early access best nests, abundant food
• improved young survival
• potential for more breeding attempts

Question 10

costs of change

Answer 10

• sudden bad weather kills
• temporal mismatch with food - phenology shifts but not food
  e. g. bud bursting, egg hatching

Question 11

shifting distribution

Answer 11

compare past/current, higher latitudes/altitudes

• poleward shift butterflies with regional warming
• 35 non migratory species = 65% north shift

higher altitudes = 102 moth sp. moved upwards 67m

Question 12

temperature and precipitation may combine to create different predicted patterns

Answer 12

• if focus only on poleward shifts, underestimate shifts in climate niches
• by 26% in temperate, 95% tropics
• observed doesn’t match expected shifts for elevation

Question 13

why are range shifts not as rapid

Answer 13

• can’t move quickly enough
• data in predictions too coarse scale
• temp grid cells 1x1km - do species operate at this scale

Question 14

microhabitat buffering

Answer 14

fine scale features within habitat

Question 15

thermal buffers (microh)

Answer 15

ambient warm, micro cool

Question 16

thermal tolerance (microh)

Answer 16

frogs have extra 2-9 degrees in micro, 1 hour extreme inside ferns = 31 hours outside

Question 17

arboreality (microh)

Answer 17

temp gradients steeper at tree scale than elevation
+2 degrees ground - canopy, 400m elevation
- moisture = 11% vs 2200m
- less arboreality with decreasing elevation