Lesson 4 Flashcards
Grey Zone (16 cards)
Hoffman and definition of Gray Zone
Hoffman
- illegal activities of
- non-traditional statecraft
- that are below the threshold of armed organized violence.
- Cyber security is involved.
Hoffman
Intent of grey zone tactics
- secure strategic leverage through gradual
- reamaining below the threshold that would trigger a significant response.
Thuesen & Jakobsen perception of western, China and Russia’s perception of war
Western: Clear separation of war and peace, based on history and law, but challenged by gray zone conflicts
Russia: Mixes war and peace, uses non-military tactics to gain advantage.
China: Uses all possible methods to force opponents to submit, including society-wide tactics.
Theussen & Jakobsen
Hybrid warfare
Traditional military capabilities with irregular tactics (such as cyber).
Can also be without military capabilities.
Hybrid threats
-Hybrid Center of Excellence
Action conducted by state or non-state actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm a target by combining overt and covert military and non-military means.
-Hybrid Center of Excellence
Dunn Cavelty view on politics and ayber-attacks
NotPetya is just one of many politically motivated cyber-attacks. Ukraine, Russia, Sandworms.
Tknology and politics are interwined.
Ottis Conflict in Cyberspace
Offensive cyber capabilities are appealing to weaker countries that prefer to engage technologically advanced and dependent adversaries.
Non-state actors are ideal for causing confusion and performing deniable acts against adversaries, potentially masking more dangerous campaigns by professional operators
Nye Jospehs, detterence of cyberspace
UAS detterence by punishment: Threatening of punishment
Deterrence by Denial: cyber defenses can build resilience of a state.
Deterrence by Entanglement:
The economic interdependence between countries, such as the U.S. and China, can act as a deterrent
Weber, Valentin on cyberspace
Great powers initiate destructive cyber operations for territorial gains, to preempt threats, and in retaliation
Thuesen & Jakobsen Western Grey Zone aspect consequences
China and Russia can take of advantage of the grey zone, since the west only differ within traditional warfare and peace.
Therefore they use the salami-effect, taking small steps, to stay within the greyzone and within the targeted state’s threshold without starting a traditional war.
Hoffman’s Heuristic Construction of Conflcits
- Measures Short of Armed Conflict
- Irregular Warfare/Terrorism
- Hybrid Warfare
- Conventional Warfare (limited to theater-wide objectives)
Stensrud and example of Svalbard
Svalbard Context: In the maritime zones around Svalbard, Russia’s actions constitute an active threat and possibly limited hybrid operations, but not outright hybrid warfare, reflecting a strategy of maintaining strategic uncertainty while avoiding escalation.
**Need for Nuance: **It is important to avoid interpreting every Russian act of aggression as warfare, and labeling incidents as “hybrid operations” may risk undermining conflict and resource management and Arctic diplomacy.
Beazner and Cordey perception of the Western percepton of peace and war
the same as Thuesen and Jakobsen
Ottis and cyber conflicts
Offensive cyber capabilities are appealing to weaker countries that prefer to engage technologically advanced and dependent adversaries.
Non-state actors are ideal for causing confusion and performing deniable acts against adversaries, potentially masking more dangerous campaigns by professional operators
Dunn Cavelty Politics Cyber Security
Politics and tecknology is interwined
NotPetya is just one of many politically motivated cyber-attacks. Ukraine, Russia, Sandworms.
Joseph Nye and detterence and punishment
**Deterrence ** in cyberspace depends on how, who, and what one is trying to deter, with ambiguities of attribution and diverse adversaries complicating the strategy.
**Punishment ** is less prominent in cyber strategies compared to nuclear weapons, while denial plays a larger role in dealing with non-state actors
