MIDs and enduring rivalries Flashcards

Question

War intensity (# actors) and Frequency

Answer 1

Inverse relationship between war intensity and war frequency ( 1820-1997): A 10-fold increase in war severity decreases the subsequent probability of war by a factor of 2.6. - Multiparty MIDs last longer - EG First World War: Serbian-Austro-Hungarian dispute ultimately involved almost every major power in the system (incl. Japan). It persisted for a long time. - Criticism: There has been very little effort to demonstrate what causes MIDs to happen, and too much focus on them as causes when they are actually effects of underlying causes such as regime types, power distributions, and planning. We therefore must also ask why disputes don't occur at certain times. (EG The North-South Korean: impasses but few MIDs)

Answer 2

There are 115 rivalries over the period 1816-2001. 80% of rivalries are power asymetric, such as the US and Haiti, with 42% enduring for 13+ MIDs: this is interesting since we'd expect the more powerful state to prevail. 65% of disputes in enduring rivalries occur within 2 years.

Answer 3

90% of ERs end with a systemic shock, such as a war or a major state faliure, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are a number of discrete causes for termination: 1 - Terminate by another rivalry: EG, Franco-German ER replaced by NATO-WP ER. 2 - Terminated by power preponderance: EG, US-Mexico Relationship 3 - Terminated by the introduction of third parties: EG, Detente between the Soviet Union and the United States that ended the first phase of the Cold War was the result of the Sino-Soviet split and the uncertainty as to China's future allegiance; EG, End of the US- British rivalry ended at the end of the nineteenth century because of the emergence of unified Germany in 1870. 4 - It has been statistically found that disputes within enduring rivalries tend to decline as states approach power parity: EG, the Iranian-Iraqi level of disputes declines in the 1970s and Iraq was becoming stronger in comparison to Iran. 5 - End by Agreement: Specific disputes due to territorial disagreements end more often because of plebiscites, and less often by treaty (which increases the probability of a recurrence of war): EG, Kashmir

Answer 4

Not sure cause: two interpretations of how decision-makers learn within enduring rivalries. - Samuel Huntington has argued that wars tend to occur early in arms races because newly established states and new enemies find it difficult to measure their relative strengths. They therefore enter into wars because it is not clear which is the weaker side.

Answer 5

states have substantive learning: they change their goals based on their early experiences with their rivalry, and this makes war less likely because they choose more attainable goals; EG - 1947-49, First Arab-Israel War, the 1947-48 First Indo-Pakistani War, the 1950-53 North-South Korean War. - In effect, the longer the enduring rivalry, the more likely the states will learn to interact peacefully. - Statistically validated: In half of enduring rivalries, war occurs by the third dispute, and by the 6th dispute in 90% of rivalries.

Answer 6

wars are more likely to occur late in a rivalry (specifically the third dispute) Cause: with each subsequent dispute each state hardens its commitment and is therefore more likely to escalate to war. - As rivalries endire, states shift an increasingly large portion of their attention on that single adversary. - EG, The US's focus on the Soviet Union has meant that the US is still focusing on Russia and practically ignores other major states such as India and Brazil. - Learning: For Leng, states learn instrumentally: they learn how to change their tactics but not their final goals; EG - 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani Wars, 1974 Greco-Turkish War, 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli War, the 1980 Iran-Iraq War, 1962 Sino-Indian War. - In Effect: the longer the enduring rivalry, the more likely states relations will deteriorate into war.

Answer 7

1 - disputes let off steam and thereby reduce tension, making war less likely. but no dispute= lack of communication and accumulation of grievances that could make war more likely 2 - war was likely in long term enduring rivalries, but in the extremely long enduring rivalries there was a decreased likelihood of war.

Answer 8

- then learning has not occured and the rivalry itself is probably being driven from outside any conflict spiral between the two states - EG, the Mozambique-South African confrontation was driven in large part by the Mozambiquan desire to obtain Soviet aid.

Answer 9

States cling to core beliefs unless there is overwhelming disconfirmatory evidence, which rarely occurs even with a war in an enduring rivalry.