Midterm 1 Flashcards
Modules 1-5 (67 cards)
What is Survivorship Bias?
Basing your decisions off of examples who have survived, ignoring those who did not survive.
What is the Default Effect?
When the default option is more likely to be chosen (e.g., Organ Donor Program)
What is Anchoring?
A bias where we hear a number and “anchor” our decision closer to the number that was stated.
What is the Availability Heuristic?
Judging the probability of an event occurring by how easily it comes to mind. (e.g., what % of death is caused by war? ~0.2%)
What is Ensemble Probability?
The ruin of one does not ruin the others. There is no compounding of risk.
What is Time probability?
The accumulation of risk over time, low risk choices become high risk.
What is the Base Rate Fallacy?
Representative Heuristic - We allow assumptions to influence our decision instead of logic (e.g., most students are enrolled in Arts)
Difference between Availability and Representative Heuristic?
Availability - estimate likelihood of event based on recall of similar events.
Representative - based on known representation of situation
What is the exponential Growth Bias?
We are not intuitively understanding of exponential growth because it is not normally distributed.
What is Prospect Theory?
We feel that losses hurt more than gains feel good. We are more likely to take a risk when avoiding a loss. Likely due to ancestral reasons.
Peak End Rule?
We neglect the duration of the experience. We remember the pain/pleasure based on the peak and/or the end of an experience.
Gambler’s Fallacy
If something happens more frequently than normal, it will/should happen less frequently in the future (“if red hits 20x on Roulette, black will definitely hit next spin”)
Endowment Effect
Once ownership is established, people value it more, even if it’s randomly assigned.
Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Making a choice based on not what will produce best outcome, but based on previous investments so they don’t go to “waste”
Planning Fallacy
The plan usually looks a lot more straightforward and clear, but the path is a lot more unclear.
What is the antidote to the Planning Fallacy?
Premortem - Write down EVERYTHING that could go wrong and consider how the plan can adapt/change.
What is a Maximizer?
People who want the best options. (Leads to higher paying jobs, but less life satisfaction)
What is a Satisficer?
People who want the “good enough” options. (Leads to lower paying jobs, but higher life satisfaction).
What is the law of reciprocity?
w > (c/b)
What do the variables mean in “w > (c/b)”
w = probability of another encounter
c = cost of reciprocating
b = benefit of reciprocating
What is Indirect Reciprocity?
Indirect reciprocity is when a 3rd party sees or is influenced by the act of reciprocity
What is Upstream indirect reciprocity?
When someone reciprocates to a 3rd party
What is Downstream reciprocity?
When the 3rd party reciprocates to the original do-er of the act.
What are the 6 principles of persuasion?
- Reciprocity
- Commitment and Consistency
- Social Proof
- Liking
- Authority
- Scarcity