Module 11 - Risk assessment Flashcards
1
Q
Risk assessment: What is it?
A
- Pre 1990s = dichotomy
- Now dimension of probability that changes over time and interaction of characteristics
- Risk management = prediction + management
2
Q
Civil setting
A
- Civil commitment: involuntary hospitalization, Mental Health Act
- Child protection
- Immigration
- School + labor regulations
- Duty to warn
3
Q
Criminal setting
A
- Disclosure of risk with considerations for client-solicitor privilege
- Long-term offenders
- Early release (parole eligibility)
- Capital mitigation
- Correctional placement
- Sentencing
4
Q
Types of prediction
A
- True + = correct and risk
- True - = correct and non-risk
- False + = incorrect and risk
- False - = incorrect and non-risk
5
Q
Limitations of threat assessment
A
- Base rate problem
- Evaluative (methodological) issues
- Judgement and error biases
- Lack of theory
- Sampling (white males)
6
Q
Base rate problem
A
- % of population that commits crime
- Either too high or too low (too low = false +)
- Variables: group/population of interest, predictions, follow-up period
- Baxstrom and Dixon study = low BR and high rate of false positives
7
Q
Methodological issues
A
- Ideal experiment not feasible due to ethical considerations
- Weaknesses: limited risk factors studied, measuring criterion variable (use of records but unreported crime = underestimate), defining criterion variable (requires severity, type, target, location, motivations)
8
Q
Judgement error
A
- Heuristics
- Illusory correlation
- Ignoring BR + relying on more salient/unique cues
- Overconfidence
9
Q
Unstructured clinical judgement
A
- Professional discretion with no guidelines
- Informal, subjective, impressionistic
- Historically more common
- Cognitive biases + adversarial allegiance
- Predictability at 33%
10
Q
Actuarial/mechanical prediction
A
- Defined risks based on empirical research
- Doesn’t allow for individualized risk appraisal
- No consideration of situational factors
- Predicts recidivism + measured on continuum
- PCL-R, LS-CMI, V-RAG, Static-99R
11
Q
Structured professional judgement
A
- Predetermined list of risk factors based on presence and severity
- HCR-20: historical (violence, relationships, employment), clinical (symptoms of major mental disorder, instability, violent ideation), and future risk factors (living situation + stability, stress/coping mechanisms, professional services + plans)
o Best prediction with women
12
Q
Tests for risk assessment
A
- PCL-R = psychopathy checklist revised, 20 items rated 0/1/2 (e.g., grandiose sense of self, shallow affect, lack of empathy, etc.)
- LS/CMI = level of service/case management inventory, part of RNR (most widely used), based on criminogenic risks/needs and responsivity
- V-RAG = violent recidivism assessment guide, mostly static factors, high accuracy rate (75%), works across genders + cultures, 12 items
- Static-99R = risk of future dangerousness for male adult sex offender, only static risk factors, good predictor (41%)
13
Q
Ideal assessment approach
A
- Empirically valid risk factors
- Method for measuring
- Procedure for combining scores
- Violence risk estimate
14
Q
Traditional types of risk factors
A
- Static: historical and clinical
- Dynamic (criminogenic needs): dispositional and contextual, easier target for treatment
- Now = more of a continuum (static – stable dynamic – acute dynamic)
15
Q
Types of risk factors
A
- Historical (static) = past behavior (violent/nonviolent), age of onset (early = chronic), childhood history of maltreatment, social history (employment problems)
- Dispositional (dynamic) = demographics (age, males), personality (impulsiveness, psychopathy), attitudes, traits, tendencies, style
- Clinical (static) = mental disorder symptoms (substance abuse), affective disorders + schizophrenia
- Contextual (dynamic) = situational, access to victim/weapon, perceived stress, lack of social support (instrumental, emotional, appraisal, information)
