Module 11 - Risk assessment Flashcards

(26 cards)

1
Q

Risk assessment: What is it?

A
  • Pre 1990s = dichotomy
  • Now dimension of probability that changes over time and interaction of characteristics
  • Risk management = prediction + management
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2
Q

Civil setting

A
  • Civil commitment: involuntary hospitalization, Mental Health Act
  • Child protection
  • Immigration
  • School + labor regulations
  • Duty to warn
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3
Q

Criminal setting

A
  • Disclosure of risk with considerations for client-solicitor privilege
  • Long-term offenders
  • Early release (parole eligibility)
  • Capital mitigation
  • Correctional placement
  • Sentencing
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4
Q

Types of prediction

A
  • True + = correct and risk
  • True - = correct and non-risk
  • False + = incorrect and risk
  • False - = incorrect and non-risk
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5
Q

Limitations of threat assessment

A
  • Base rate problem
  • Evaluative (methodological) issues
  • Judgement and error biases
  • Lack of theory
  • Sampling (white males)
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6
Q

Base rate problem

A
  • % of population that commits crime
  • Either too high or too low (too low = false +)
  • Variables: group/population of interest, predictions, follow-up period
  • Baxstrom and Dixon study = low BR and high rate of false positives
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7
Q

Methodological issues

A
  • Ideal experiment not feasible due to ethical considerations
  • Weaknesses: limited risk factors studied, measuring criterion variable (use of records but unreported crime = underestimate), defining criterion variable (requires severity, type, target, location, motivations)
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8
Q

Judgement error

A
  • Heuristics
  • Illusory correlation
  • Ignoring BR + relying on more salient/unique cues
  • Overconfidence
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9
Q

Unstructured clinical judgement

A
  • Professional discretion with no guidelines
  • Informal, subjective, impressionistic
  • Historically more common
  • Cognitive biases + adversarial allegiance
  • Predictability at 33%
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10
Q

Actuarial/mechanical prediction

A
  • Defined risks based on empirical research
  • Doesn’t allow for individualized risk appraisal
  • No consideration of situational factors
  • Predicts recidivism + measured on continuum
  • PCL-R, LS-CMI, V-RAG, Static-99R
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11
Q

Structured professional judgement

A
  • Predetermined list of risk factors based on presence and severity
  • HCR-20: historical (violence, relationships, employment), clinical (symptoms of major mental disorder, instability, violent ideation), and future risk factors (living situation + stability, stress/coping mechanisms, professional services + plans)
    o Best prediction with women
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12
Q

Tests for risk assessment

A
  • PCL-R = psychopathy checklist revised, 20 items rated 0/1/2 (e.g., grandiose sense of self, shallow affect, lack of empathy, etc.)
  • LS/CMI = level of service/case management inventory, part of RNR (most widely used), based on criminogenic risks/needs and responsivity
  • V-RAG = violent recidivism assessment guide, mostly static factors, high accuracy rate (75%), works across genders + cultures, 12 items
  • Static-99R = risk of future dangerousness for male adult sex offender, only static risk factors, good predictor (41%)
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13
Q

Ideal assessment approach

A
  • Empirically valid risk factors
  • Method for measuring
  • Procedure for combining scores
  • Violence risk estimate
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14
Q

Traditional types of risk factors

A
  • Static: historical and clinical
  • Dynamic (criminogenic needs): dispositional and contextual, easier target for treatment
  • Now = more of a continuum (static – stable dynamic – acute dynamic)
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15
Q

Types of risk factors

A
  • Historical (static) = past behavior (violent/nonviolent), age of onset (early = chronic), childhood history of maltreatment, social history (employment problems)
  • Dispositional (dynamic) = demographics (age, males), personality (impulsiveness, psychopathy), attitudes, traits, tendencies, style
  • Clinical (static) = mental disorder symptoms (substance abuse), affective disorders + schizophrenia
  • Contextual (dynamic) = situational, access to victim/weapon, perceived stress, lack of social support (instrumental, emotional, appraisal, information)
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16
Q

Draw Coping-Relapse model of criminal behavior

17
Q

Protective factors

A
  • Mitigate/reduce likelihood of antisocial acts (dynamic)
  • Prosocial involvement
  • Strong social support, positive social orientation
  • Strong attachments
  • Intelligence
18
Q

Risks of risk assessment

A
  • Lack of agreement
  • Field reliability
  • Further validation
  • Terminology
19
Q

History

A
  • 1st generation: unguided clinical judgment, inaccurate + high error rate
  • 2nd generation: static actuarial measures, VRAG + Statis 99R, limited factors with food predictability
  • 3rd generation: static + dynamic, education, vocational skills, family, employment, substance abuse
  • 4th generation: case management (aka treatment plant), making recommendations
20
Q

Process

A
  • Case file review: previous record (medical/criminal), childhood, goal = reveal antisocial behavior
  • Interview: semi-structured, social network, irritability, impulsivity
21
Q

Mental illness

A

substance use disorder, adjustment disorder, dependent disorder, explicit in media/implicit in justice system

22
Q

Sexual offenders

A

15% reoffence (non-married with no kids), sexual deviancy, prior sexual offenses, sexual fantasies

23
Q

Female offenders

A

fraud/theft/prostitution/drug charges i.e., survival responses

24
Q

Young offenders

A

short-term = high recidivism, anti-social peers, callous/unemotional trait

25
Testimony
- Lowest accuracy influences juries the most - Unstructured allowed into evidence at state level
26
What did Kaplan et al. find in terms of lay people that serve in juries?
They don't understand coercion in interrogations as well as expert statements