MODULE 2 Explore why disparities exist and why we reduce them Flashcards
What are the key drivers of Population change?
Fertility, mortality and migration
Age Specific Fertility Rate
Number of births to women in a 5-year age group/Number of females in a 5-year age group, per 1 000
Total fertility rate (TFR)
a population measure of family size
(measure of fertility)
Replacement level
(TFR)
TFR level required for the population to replace itself without migration
How is fertility measured?
through birth statistics
(Dept of Internal Affairs register; Information Directorate at the Ministry of Health maintains register and Statistics NZ generate the reports)
birth rates, age-specific fertility rates, total fertility rates
How is mortality measured?
Death statistics
(Department of Internal Affairs register; Health Information Directorate at the Ministry of Health maintain and report)
number of deaths, death rates, life expectancy
Death rates measured: Infant mortality rate, crude death rate, standardised death rate
How is migration measured?
origin and destination statistics
(visitor information sheets when we leave the country; statistics NZ maintain and report)
Key trends in Births since 1970s
Number of live births in 1971 and 2008 are similar (around 64 000) BUT fertility rate is NOT the same (because the denominator, total number of women/denominator has increased).
The crude birth rate has decreased from around 22 per 1 000 in 1971 to under 15/1000 in 2013.
Age-specific fertility rate trend:
1984: first IVF baby born
30-34 age group: massive increase in ASFR since (Also in 35-39)
Decrease in ASFR in 20-24; 25-29 (a little in 15-19)
Key trends in Deaths since 1970s
All deaths in NZ from 1971-2013: increasing trend from just above 24 000 to just over 30 000
Key Trends in Migration since the 1970s
No key trend in permanent and long-term migration patterns bet 1971 and 2013 (arrivals and departures)
Migration trends consist of in-migration AND out-migration.
Crude birth rate calculation
=live births/total population per 1 000
Age-specific fertility rate
The number of births to women in a 5-year age group/Number of females in a 5-year age group per 1 000
Study setting: NZ, 1973-2013
Eligible population and Participants: Females aged 15-44, living in NZ between 1971 and 2013 who gave birth to at least one child
(NB: assumes that ASFR remains constant throughout woman’s lifetime)
Life expectancy in NZ 1970-2013
Difference in LE between sexes decreased from 6.1-3.7 years.
Males: from under 70 to just under 80 yo
Females: from around 75 to around 83 yo
Infant mortality rate
number of deaths aged <1 yo / live births per 1 000.
decreasing trend from 16.0/ 1000 to just over 4.0/1000.
Around 1989, An intervention:
NZ Cot Death Study commenced: recommendations:
Baby sleeps in prone position; mum doesn’t smoke during pregnancy
Crude death rate and Standardised Death rate
Crude:number of deaths/total pop per 1 000
Standardised: total of (expected deaths/standard population) per 1 000
From 8/1000 to under 4/1000 (std) and just over 6/1000 (crude)
Demographic measures of migration
internal migration
external migration
net migration = arrivals - departures
net migration rate= (immigrants/emigrants)/total population per 1 000
Migration
Permanent or semi-permanent change of residence by an individual or group of people
Internal migration
impacts on REGIONAL population growth
External migration
impacts on NATIONAL population growth
PLT= permanent and/or long-term migrants
Recent migration trends
Jan 2014 net migration gain: 25 666
Net loss of 15 000 people to Australia in Feb 2014 was well down from the loss of 36 700 in Feb 2013.
Net gains of migrants from most other countries in Feb 2014 year:
China (6 100)
India (5 800)
UK (5 800)
Philippines (2 500)
Germany (2 300)
France (1 700)
Population Ageing
occurs when the median age of a country’s population increases due to improved life expectancy and/or declining birth rates
happening in most high-income countries now, or will be within 25-50 years.
Types of Ageing
Numerical and stuctural
Numerical Ageing
the absolute increase in the population that is elderly
- reflects previous demographic patterns
- improvements in life expectancy
Structural ageing
the increase in the **proportion **of the population that is elderly
- driven by decreases in fertility rates
- began occurring in the 1800s