Population and Economic Analysis Flashcards
What’s the difference between a CBSA and a Metropolitan Statistical Area?
A Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) has a core area of at least 10,000 population, whereas a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a core of at least 50,000.
Both consist of the core and surrounding communities.
What is the optimum size of a census tract?
4,000
in practice, they range from 1,200 to 8,000
Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)
core + adjacent communities
not strict definition of an urban area, but an administrative area
collections of counties consisting of a core county (with a major city) and adjacent counties that are related in terms of employment, commuting, etc.
What is the Hierarchy of Census Geographic Entities?
- Nation (zip code tabulation areas, urban areas, CBSAs)
- Regions
- Divisions
- States (school districts, congressional districts, urban growth areas, state legislative districts, public use microdata areas, places)
- Counties (voting districts, traffic analysis zones, county subdivisions - subminor civil divisions)
- Census Tracts
- Block Groups
- Census Blocks (AIANNH Areas: American Indian, Alaska native, native Hawaiian areas)
Combined Statistical Areas
When core based statistical areas are large enough so that the urban metropolitan areas run into each other, they are combined and become megapolitan areas
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
core + surrounding counties
Metro - core county has a population of at least 50,000
Micro - core county has 10,000-50,000
surrounding counties added when employment and commuting relate them.
Principle City
Metro/micropolitan
Urban areas can have multiple incorporated ares, principle city is the largest in a CBSA, but there can be several principle cities.
Blocks
are small in area; a block in a city is bounded on all sides by streets
usually only have counts of people by ethnicity and age group
Block groups
are statistical divisions of census tracts; they generally contain 600-3,000 people, and are used to present data and control block numbering
Census Tracts
generally have population size between 1,200-8,000 people with an optimum size of 4,000 people.
has most information at city level - population, household information and economic information.
what is the main purpose of the census?
main purpose of the census is to define the electoral districts to find congress representatives
American Community Survey (ACS)
A rolling survey done every year, but with a different group of people.
replace the long-form of the census that was used to collect socio-economic data.
how do you gain statistical reliability from ACS data?
Take an average, typically 5 years
what are the key population drivers?
natural change: births - deaths
net migration: inmigration - outmigration
step-down method
aka ratio method
compares the population of a smaller entity to that of a larger entity and assumes the share remains the same.
takes an estimate for a larger area and uses a proportion or ratio to estimate the amount for a smaller area.
auxiliary data can be used to adjust the estimate (utility hookups, drivers licenses, etc.)
Population pyramid
uses to show sex and age and characterize whether the community is aging and young. implications for things like social services, retirement, medicare, daycares, schools etc.
total fertility rate (TFR)
a measure of the degree to which the population replaces itself.
number of births / female population of child bearing age
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crude birth rate
total number of births / population
death rate
number of deaths / total population
What is the typical replacement rate?
2.1
trend extrapolation
Take the past and project it into the future as if it would continue indefinitely
Linear model: Pop(t) = a + bt
Exponential: Pop(t) = pop(0).e^bt
Gompertz: Pop(t) = K.e^(-ln(K/Pop0)e^(-ct))
ratio method
take a projection from a different area, typically a larger area, and then scale it down to a smaller area
Cohort survival
Fundamental Population Equation
Pop(t+1) = Pop(t) + Births(t to t+1) - Deaths(t to t+1) + Net migration (t to t+1)
each cohort is an age group. applies a survival rate to each cohort and a birth rate to each parent-aged cohort and then adds the net migration to get the population at the end of a time period. The population at the end of the time period (10 years) becomes the population at the beginning of the next time period (20 years).
Linear model
Pop(t) = a + bt
population growth is typically not a linear form
Exponential
Pop(t) = pop(0).e^bt
a more curved trendline than linear, would better represent than a linear model.
Gompertz curve
Pop(t) = K.e^(-ln(K/Pop0)e^(-ct))
a growth curve from biology, has a carrying capacity, an S shape curve that has an increase in growth and then levels off at a carrying capacity
Allocation Methods
Ratio Method (Step-down method): smaller area proportional to a larger area
Distributed housing unit method: Pop(t) = Housing Units(t) x Occupancy Rate x Household Size
Distributed housing unit method
Pop(t) = Housing Units(t) x Occupancy Rate x Average Household Size
uses most up to date housing information and then uses a simple formula
what is the weakest part of the fundamental population formula?
Net migration. we have data for births and deaths, but the US does not have a good way to track migration.
When is the distributed housing method used?
to calculate population in between census years
what are the main principals of economic analysis for urban or regional level?
follow money and jobs - selling goods, buying goods, employing people, paying salaries. how does money flow and stay in or leave the region?
direct (immediate) and indirect (ongoing) effects: multiplier - critical in measuring the impact of new activities.
economic impact analysis; major component of cost benefit analysis (what will a new infrastructure project effect on economy - job creation (direct - construction, indirect - retail, real estate)
Economic Base Analysis
separates the economy into Basic and Non-Basic and uses the economic base multiplier to estimate changes in the economy.
total economic activity = basic + non-basic
theory-based model based on keynesian demand-driven economy
Basic economic activity
basic = brings in money from the outside (exports, tourism)
Non-Basic economic activity
recirculates the outside money (local services, retail, banking)
Economic Base Multiplier
multiplier = total economic activity / basic economic activity
(in practice use employment and jobs, rather than dollars)
used to estimate the effect (how much additional value is created in the region) if an additional dollar of basic activity is added. multiplies the money
The indirect effect of $1 additional basic (direct) activity on the economy = multiplier - 1
How would you used economic base analysis in practice?
- determine basic and non-basic sectors
- Use employment data
- SIC (old) and NAICS (new) sector classifications - Methods
- empirical approach (makes assumptions about which industries fit into which category)
- minimum requirements (compare to a reference)
- Location quotient (most commonly used approach)
