Risk Assessment Flashcards
(44 cards)
who are called upon to include statement about offender risk?
forensic psych
- treatment summaries
- section 34 assessments
- probation referrals
- school board q
what is the first gen of risk prediction instruments?
expert opinion
- clinical impression, subjective assessment, professional judgment
- collection of info to assess risk
- INTERVIEW and FILE REVIEW
- nature and interpretation subject to personal discretion
- final estimate is decided by them
pros to first gen
- readily available
- incorporates clinician’s experience
- clinician has freedom to consider any data
- short term validity (48-72 hrs)
cons to first gen
- questionable accountability and fairness
- difficult to explicate decision riles as they are variable
- poor reliability and validity for med and long term predictions
second generation
addition of objectivity
- VRAG, PCL-R
- identify variables empirically associated with risk and assign values, or weight to each
- dynamic/clinical variables but often do not
- actuarial approach
- predict particular outcome -> insurance companies, likelihood of violence expressed as relative probability
pros to second gen
- objective
- scientific
- lend themselves well to appropriate levels of scientific and legal scrutiny
- consistency and accurate
- less dependent on rater’s clinical experience
cons to second gen
- can be insensitive to changes - dynamic variable change than legitimately lowers risk then instruments dont give credit to that
- optimization can restrict generalization
-> supervised learning
**VRAG
violence risk appraisal guide
- assigns patient to one of 9 categories or bins, each bin associated with specific probability of recidivism
- forward stepwise regression
- neg correlation
- area of overlap = correlational which is directly proportional
- the unique contribution is what is left
graph for VRAG
highest p of recidivism is 4
- highest number is in 9 but that is rare
reporting risk estimates
- risk cohort
- type of recid
- time frame
underlying risk model
stable over time - equally likely to commit offense
- individuals can be higher or lower than reference pop
what is third gen
risk-needs assessment
- SPJ
- arose with risk management orientation
- certina needs are linked to criminal behavior and so alter needs, change likelihood of behavior
- criminogenic needs = dynamic risk predictors
what are the 3 categories in third gen?
historical
clinical
risk (RF)
what can intervention do?
affect clinical dynamic factors
what can static factors do?
affect the amount of risk
= above threshold = likely to reoffend
what is not included in second gen tool?
dynamic factors
- perfect sin wave then predicted value - 0 or close to then the highs and low cancel out
risk = ?
static risk + dynamic risk
- threshold exceeded then offending becomes highly likely
- change static = focus on dynamic
what is the best for long term prediction and stratifying offenders by risk level
2 gen
what is better at identifying circumstances under which further offending will take place
SPJ
pros for 3 gen
- formal structure on eval but felxibility around decision-making
- sensitive to changes - dynamic factors
- better tahn unaided clinical judgment
cons for 3rd gen
less evidence on reliability - not good long term
- less validity
- no empirical optimization of item selection or weighting
- accuracy unclear when scores adjusted by clinicians
- more rf = higher risk = arbritariness taken out of account
MASORR
multifactorial assessment of sex offender risk for recidivism
- AUC - measure of predictive accuracy higher numbers mean better predictions
serious vs sexual pre and post treatment
sexual > serious for both
- pre and post for serious not that much different
what are correlation coefficients
r scores
r^2 = percentage of variance accounted for by the correlation
