Supermemo5 Flashcards

Question

Some Classic Standard Questions to always have at your disposal■

Answer 1

What about this is important to you? ■How can I help to make this better for us? ■How would you like me to proceed? ■What is it that brought us into this situation? ■How can we solve this problem? ■What’s the objective? / What are we trying to accomplish here? ■How am I supposed to do that?

Answer 2

The reason is that the stock market (or simply the underlying stock) is a prediction in and of itself. If you've already made a prediction, predicting what's wrong with your prediction is really hard--if you knew what was wrong, you would have simply made that a part of your prediction to begin with.

Answer 3

“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” At another time he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”

Answer 4

Increasingly, contemporary Americans are no longer concerned with abstract concepts like “diversity.” Now, “diversity” doesn’t mean “diversity,” it instead means the Good People who deserve to win. The opposite of “diversity” is no longer “homogeneity,” it now means Bad People (straight white males) who deserve to lose.

Answer 5

“You can know the name of that bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird. You'll only know about humans in different places, and what they call the bird… I learned very early the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something."

Answer 6

A staple of the democrats’ marxist playbook. It’s a very interesting idea and sounds right to me. Lindsay explained the democrats’ most commonly-deployed strategy these days is to provoke a target into the impossible dilemma of either giving in — and becoming demoralized — or pushing back in some way and then being hysterically portrayed as having overreacted.

Answer 7

We should all fortify ourselves against the dark hours of depression by cultivating a deep distrust of the certainties of despair. Despair is relentless in the certainties of its pessimism. But we have seen again and again, from our own experience and others', that absolute statements of hopelessness that we make in the dark are notoriously unreliable. Our dark certainties are not sureties.And the darkness will lift. Yes, it will.

Answer 8

“If scientific beliefs are just a particular culture’s mythology, how come we can cure smallpox and get to the moon, and traditional cultures can’t? And if truth is just socially constructed, would you say that climate change is a myth? It’s the same with moral values. If moral values are nothing but cultural customs, would you agree that our disapproval of slavery or racial discrimination or the oppression of women is just a western fancy?”

Answer 9

"So why do smart people do things that interfere with getting the output they’re entitled to? It gets into the habits and character and temperament, and behaving in a rational manner. Not getting in your own way. As I said, everybody here has the ability absolutely to do anything I do and much beyond. Some of you will, and some of you won’t. For the ones who won’t, it will be because you get in your own way, not because the world doesn’t allow you."

Answer 10

Top 10 countries in sq miles1 Russia 6.6 million square miles 2013 =2 Canada 3.8 million square miles 2013 =2 United States 3.8 million square miles 2013 4 China 3.7 million square miles 2013 5 Brazil 3.3 million square miles 2013 6 Australia 2.9 million square miles 2013 7 India 1.24 million square miles 2013 8 Argentina 1.1 million square miles 2013 9 Kazakhstan 1,000,000 square miles 2013 10 Algeria 919,595 square miles 2013

Answer 11

The tolerance paradox arises from a problem that a tolerant person might be antagonistic toward intolerance, hence intolerant of it. The tolerant individual would then be by definition intolerant of intolerance. This problem is at the heart of the dilemma faced by pluralist societies who wish to embrace diversity, but in doing so ostensibly exclude those who do not embrace diversity.Many philosophers, including Karl Popper[1] and John Rawls,[2] have discussed this paradox.

Answer 12

Entryism (also referred to as entrism or enterism, or as infiltration) is a political strategy in which an organisation or state encourages its members or supporters to join another, usually larger, organisation in an attempt to expand influence and expand their ideas and program. In situations where the organization being "entered" is hostile to entrism, the entrists may engage in a degree of subterfuge and subversion to hide the fact that they are an organisation in their own right.

Answer 13

The argument from silence (also called argumentum ex silentio in Latin) is generally a conclusion based on silence or lack of contrary evidence.[1] In the field of classical studies, it often refers to the deduction from the lack of references to a subject in the available writings of an author to the conclusion that he was ignorant of it.[2] When used as a logical proof in pure reasoning, the argument is classed among the fallacies, but an argument from silence can be a convincing form of abductive reasoning.

Answer 14

Asking myself "is this helping me get what I want" is becoming one of my favorite questions.It works on kids too. Mine are 11 and soon to be 10. Whenever they start fighting, I ask them, "Is this helping you get what you want?" and it gives them the power to remember what they are really trying to accomplish. "You can argue with your brother about whether it's a chair or a stool, or you can get what you want."Don't lose sight on what you want to achieve. Every action is a step toward or away from you what you want.

Answer 15

The illusion of asymmetric insight is a cognitive bias that involves the fact that people perceive their knowledge of others to surpass other people's knowledge of them. The source for this bias seems to stem from the fact that observed behaviors of others are more revealing than one's own similar behaviors.[1]Relatedly, people seem to believe that they know themselves better than their peers know themselves and that their social group knows and understands other social groups better than that social group knows them.

Answer 16

The story of the blind men and an elephant originated from India.In various versions of the tale, a group of blind men (or men in the dark) touch an elephant to learn what it is like. Each one touches a different part, but only one part, such as the side or the tusk. They then compare notes on what they felt, and learn they are in complete disagreement. The story is used to indicate that reality may be viewed differently depending upon one's perspective, suggesting that what seems an absolute truth may be relative due to the deceptive nature of half-truths.

Answer 17

Both in common law and in civil law, a rebuttable presumption (in Latin, praesumptio iuris tantum) is an assumption made by a court, one that is taken to be true unless someone comes forward to contest it and prove otherwise. A rebuttable presumption is often associated with prima facie evidence.Rebuttable presumptions in criminal law are somewhat controversial in that they do effectively reverse the presumption of innocence in some cases. For example, in the United Kingdom, Section 75 of the Sexual Offences Act 2003 makes the rebuttable presumption that a person who is unconscious or asleep cannot consent to sexual activity.

Answer 18

Commitment consistency bias — We have a desire to remain consistent with our past behaviour. Companies and manipulative people leverage this cleverly. If our favorite coffee shop raises their prices, we are unlikely to switch to somewhere else- after all, we have a loyalty card and the baristas know our usual order. If we realize the interest rates at our bank are lower than elsewhere, we are unlikely to change- we must have chosen them in the first place for a good reason. If an old friend suddenly becomes obnoxious and insulting, we are unlikely to stop spending time with them, due to the sunken costs of all the time spent together in the past

Answer 19

Great video. Resentment is your friend if used properly. Understand the 2 conditions that cause resentment. First--The burden of responsibility and obligation. Often, resentment comes because can't be kids anymore. So, we resent the burdens of adulthood. Second--Resentment comes from tyranny...ie the man is keeping you down. When feeling resentment, you must think about (and be honest with yourself) as to why. If it's Obligation, STFU and do your job. It's the way it is--we're not children anymore. If it's Tyranny--then get the courage to act. Stand up for yourself! You are resentful because you're being a punk. Imagine Joccko being resentful HIGHLY unlikely.

Answer 20

Maximization/Minimization“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables— like the discount warehouses of Costco.”When everything is a priority nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable, and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It's hard to compete with businesses who have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you'll increase the odds you're quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Answer 21

A vacuous truth is a truth that is devoid of content because it asserts something about all members of a class that is empty or because it says "If A then B" when in fact A is false. For example, the statement "all cell phones in the room are turned off" may be true simply because there are no cell phones in the room.Outside of mathematics, statements which can be characterized informally as vacuously true can be misleading. Such statements make reasonable assertions about qualified objects which do not actually exist. For example, a child might tell his parents "I ate every vegetable on my plate," when there were no vegetables on the child’s plate to begin with.

Answer 22

Proof by example (also known as inappropriate generalisation) is a logical fallacy whereby one or more examples are claimed as "proof" for a more general statement.[1]This fallacy has the following argument form: I know that x, which is a member of group X, has the property P. Therefore, all other elements of X have the property P.The following example demonstrates why this is a logical fallacy: I've seen a person shoot someone dead. Therefore, all people are murderers.This argument is obviously flawed, but arguments of the same form can sometimes seem superficially convincing, as in the following example: I've seen John's brother steal something. John's family must be thieves.

Answer 23

DARVO refers to a reaction perpetrators of wrong doing, particularly sexual offenders, may display in response to being held accountable for their behavior. DARVO stands for "Deny, Attack, and Reverse Victim and Offender." The perpetrator or offender may Deny the behavior, Attack the individual doing the confronting, and Reverse the roles of Victim and Offender such that the perpetrator assumes the victim role and turns the true victim -- or the whistle blower -- into an alleged offender. This occurs, for instance, when an actually guilty perpetrator assumes the role of "falsely accused" and attacks the accuser's credibility and blames the accuser of being the perpetrator of a false accusation.

Answer 24

On any given day, the likelihood of rain is low. But if there are dark clouds in the sky, the probability is higher. So economists say that while the unconditional probability of rain is low, it becomes conditional on seeing dark clouds -- and is much more likely. One common example of this is life expectancy. People like to point out that life expectancy in the Middle Ages was only about 35. But that includes lots of infant mortality. If you lived in the Middle Ages and you made it to adulthood, you would probably live well past 35. While conditional life expectancy has increased since then, it hasn’t gone up by nearly as much as the unconditional version -- reductions in infant mortality have been the biggest difference.

Answer 25

So it’s fine if an airline bans a customer who likes the president-elect or for a company to threaten its employees with termination for holding a favorable view of that politician, but it’s not okay for cake bakers to refuse to bake a cake for a same-sex wedding on religious grounds? I’m going to need a guide to keep up on when it is and isn’t okay for a company to refuse service.So it’s fine if an airline bans a customer who likes the president-elect or for a company to threaten its employees with termination for holding a favorable view of that politician, but it’s not okay for cake bakers to refuse to bake a cake for a same-sex wedding on religious grounds? I’m going to need a guide to keep up on when it is and isn’t okay for a company to refuse service.

Answer 26

Map and Terrain“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we've told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we're psychologically more likely to hold to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we're wrong. This creates a scenario where we're staking the odds against us in changing when things change. Detailed 5-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly-general five year plans (which can never be wrong). Scrap it, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

Answer 27

Since dementia or ALZ involves damamge to the hippocampus, Mom has short term memory, but only half of her LT memory. So she has the part of LT memory involving unconscious learning (aka procedural learning). What she's missing is the ability to store memories that can be consciously recalled, facts about the world and herself--called semantic memory. Also lacking are those memories that would normally be a part of a personal memory album--ie episodic memory.The role of the hippocampus is to hold onto memories while they are maturing, before they are properly stored elsewhere in the brain.As your experiences are taken into the brain, they are eventually disassembled and stored in other parts of the neocortex. Every time you recollect a memory, it is 'brought back to life' by reassembling it. The hippocampus is where it's reassembled, so your mind's eye can view it again--like a holograph.

Answer 28

Being moral is about changing the way you act and actually helping others. It requires humility and tolerance because it arises from an awareness of one’s own moral failings. “Moralizing, by contrast, is about changing the way other people act—by force if necessary. Moralizing breeds intolerance and even tyranny because it springs from a belief that, like the pious Canadians, not only do you know the truth but you also have a solemn duty to impose it on others. “In America today, being moral is out and moralizing is in. Just witness the nonstop spectacle of moralizing everywhere you turn—from The New Yorker’s panicked denunciation of Chick-fil-A’s “infiltration” of New York, to gun control activist David Hogg’s boycotts, to the protestor with a megaphone shouting in a Starbucks clerk’s face.” Begin with the understanding that when you’re moralizing, there’s no need for consistency or civility. Anything goes.

Answer 29

The masked-man fallacy is a logical fallacy which is committed when someone assumes that if two or more names or descriptions refer to the same thing, then they can be freely substituted with one another, in a situation where that’s not the case.For example, the masked-man fallacy could occur if someone claimed that, given that Peter Parker is Spiderman, and given that the citizens of New York know that Spiderman saved their city, then the citizens of New York know that Peter Parker saved their city.This is because even though Peter Parker and Spiderman are both the same person, what people know about Peter Parker is different from what people know about Spiderman, so it’s wrong to say that just because the citizens of New York know something about Spiderman then they necessarily also know the same thing about Peter Parker.The masked-man fallacy can play a subtle but important role in debates on various topics, so it’s important to understand it.

Answer 30

Auxiliary problem is a problem which we consider, not for its own sake, but because we hope that its consideration may help us to solve another problem, our original problem. The original problem is the end we wish to attain, the auxiliary problem a means by which we try to attain our end. An insect tries to escape through the windowpane, tries the same again and again, and does not try the next window which is open and through which it came into the room. A man is able, or at least should be able, to act more intelligently. Human superiority consists in going around an obstacle that cannot be overcome directly, in devising a suitable auxiliary problem when the original problem appears insoluble. To devise an auxiliary problem is an important operation of the mind. To raise a clear-cut new problem subservient to another problem, to conceive distinctly as an end what is means to another end, is a refined achievement of the intelligence. It is an important task to learn (or to teach) how to handle auxiliary problems intelligently.

Answer 31

The hypothesis of linguistic relativity, part of relativism, also known as the Sapir–Whorf hypothesis /səˌpɪər ˈhwɔːrf/, or Whorfianism is a principle claiming that the structure of a language affects its speakers' world view or cognition, and thus people's perceptions are relative to their spoken language.The principle is often defined in one of two versions: the strong hypothesis, which was held by some of the early linguists before World War II,[1] and the weak hypothesis, mostly held by some of the modern linguists.[1] The strong version says that language determines thought and that linguistic categories limit and determine cognitive categories. The weak version says that linguistic categories and usage only influence thought and decisions.The principle had been accepted and then abandoned by linguists during the early 20th century following the changing perceptions of social acceptance for the other especially after World War II.[1] The origin of formulated arguments against the acceptance of linguistic relativity are attributed to Noam Chomsky.

Answer 32

You begin with something that’s obvious. But because it’s hard to accept, you have to keep reminding yourself: We don’t know what’s going to happen with anything, ever, over any period. And so it’s inevitable that a certain percentage of our decisions will be wrong. There’s just no way we can always make the right decision. That doesn’t mean you’re an idiot. But it does mean you must focus on how serious the consequences could be if you turn out to be wrong: Suppose this doesn’t do what I expected it to do, not just because it goes bad but even if it just doesn’t go up enough. What’s gonna be the impact on me? If it goes wrong, how wrong could it go and how much will it matter?Pascal’s Wager doesn’t mean that you have to be convinced beyond doubt that you are right. But you have to think about the consequences of what you’re doing and establish that you can survive them if you’re wrong. Consequences are more important than probabilities.This isn’t just a paradigm for always coming out with conservative decisions. It’s really how you should make decisions, period.

Answer 33

The American dream, which always was about an increase in material prosperity, was fundamentally unsound and unsustainable, and that now that so many are suffering, it is collapsing.Faith in materialism is bound to suffer when material conditions become adverse.America is peculiarly vulnerable, more so than any other nation, to a a downturn in material conditions, since it has no other faith.Other countries have competing versions of the good life, some of which don’t focus on material factors. America does not, and never has.Which is why America leads the world in the collapse of its institutions and values. America was viable only so long as it was on an “upward” trajectory, and cannot survive a decline, or even a prolonged stagnation, as Americans lack a conception of a worthwhile existence that does not involve an improvement in material conditions, stretching out into infinity.To some extent, this is the fate of all empires, which are dedicated to expansion by definition, and cannot survive stability or decline. But to a very considerable extent, America’s fate is unique.

Answer 34

Also related to de dicto and de reNewcomb's paradox, also referred to as Newcomb's problem, is a thought experiment involving a game between two players, one of whom purports to be able to predict the future. Whether the problem is actually a paradox is disputed. The interesting aspect of this problem is learning to distinguish between 'rational character', and 'rational action'. A rational character only takes the one box. BUT, once you're actually in the room with the two boxes in front of you, the rational action (or choice) is to take both boxes. This is all very interesting, because sometimes the rational character and the rational act don't always line up in the same way. We tend to think they do, but sometimes they don't, and this is where rationality can cause problems. Overall, Newcomb's paradox deals with 'Causal Decision Theory' (ie the rational act) and 'Evidentiary Decision Theory' (ie the rational character). Usually the two are the same.Causal Decision = Take the action which, given the state of the world (things you cannot control), would give you the best possible outcome.Evidentiary Decision = Take the action based on available evidence that suggests the best possible outcome.

Answer 35

A placebo button, also called an idiot button, is a push-button with apparent functionality that actually has no effect when pressed, analogous to a placebo. In other cases, a control like a thermostat may not be connected.Although non-functional, the buttons can give the user an illusion of control. In some cases the button may have been functional, but may have failed or been disabled during installation or maintenance. Only in relatively rare cases will the button have been deliberately designed to do nothing.[1]In many cases, a button may not appear to do something, but in fact cause behavior that is not immediately apparent; this can give the appearance of it being a placebo button.Contents[show][edit] Walk buttonsMany walk buttons at pedestrian crossings were once functional in New York, but now serve as placebo buttons.[2][edit] Elevator close buttonsSome door-close buttons in elevators are placebo buttons, although some of them do in fact change the timing, and others are only functional when activated with a maintenance key.[1][3][edit] Office thermostatsIt has been reported that many thermostats in office buildings are non-functional dummy devices, installed to give tenants' employees a similar illusion of control.

Answer 36

For years, I’ve been noting down my favorite quality questions from books I read and even people I follow on Twitter and adding them to a running list I can refer to. To get you thinking about how you can use quality questions in your life and work, here are nine favorites I return to often: 1. What’s good about this problem? What can I learn from this? (Source: Awaken the Giant Within) 2. “What am I choosing not to see right now?” (Source: The Obstacle is the Way) 3. What is the worst-case scenario if I did what I’m considering? (Source: The 4-Hour Workweek) 4. “Is what I am doing, this minute, moving me measurably closer to my goals?” (Source: No B.S. Time Management for Entrepreneurs) 5. “Will this activity or effort make the highest possible contribution towards my goal?” (Source: Essentialism) 6. “Is this necessary?” (Source: Meditations) 7. What am I giving up by making this choice? (Source: Decisive) 8. “What thoughts are going through my mind right now? What am I saying to myself? Why is this upsetting me?” (Source: Feeling Good) 9. “What if I’m wrong?” (Source: The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck)Get into the habit of asking better, quality questions when encountering problems. Doing so will open you up to alternate perspectives and solutions you might not have considered otherwise.

Answer 37

Everybody is a little bit groupish. Yet how do individuals decide whom to be groupish about?What Haidt never quite gets across is that conservatives typically define their groups concentrically, moving from their families outward to their communities, classes, religions, nations, and so forth. If Mars attacked, conservatives would be reflexively Earthist. As Ronald Reagan pointed out to the UN in 1987, “I occasionally think how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.” (Libertarians would wait to see if the Martian invaders were free marketeers.)In contrast, modern liberals’ defining trait is making a public spectacle of how their loyalties leapfrog over some unworthy folks relatively close to them in favor of other people they barely know (or in the case of profoundly liberal sci-fi movies such as Avatar, other 10-foot-tall blue space creatures they barely know).As a down-to-Earth example, to root for Manchester United’s soccer team is conservative…if you are a Mancunian. If you live in Portland, Oregon, it’s liberal.This urge toward leapfrogging loyalties has less to do with sympathy for the poor underdog (white liberals’ traditional favorites, such as soccer and the federal government, are hardly underdogs) as it is a desire to get one up in status on people they know and don’t like.

Answer 38

Recently, scientists reported a driver of aging that, in contrast, even the lead researcher diplomatically calls “counterintuitive”: neuronal activity. Aging, of course, affects the brain. But the brain seems to affect aging, too, they found: In creatures from worms to mice to people, high levels of neuronal firing spell a shorter life span. Lower levels — naturally, or due to drugs that dampen neurons’ activity — increase longevity.The discovery was so surprising that it’s taken two years to be published (in Nature) because of how much additional data the outside scientists reviewing the study requested. Geneticist Bruce Yankner of Harvard Medical School, who led the research, understood their skepticism. “If you say you have a cat in your backyard, people believe you,” he said. “If you say you have a zebra, they want more evidence.”So evidence is what he and his colleagues kept generating, in humans and mice and the roundworm C. elegans that has long been biology’s go-to animal for studies of aging, finally persuading the skeptics.“I think this is a significant new finding,” said molecular biologist Nektarios Tavernarakis of the University of Crete, an expert in aging who reviewed the paper for Nature. “It’s definitely a surprising twist in the saga of aging, but it’s too early to talk about manipulating the human lifespan based on this. In my opinion, things are going to be more complicated.”

Answer 39

The appeal to definition is a logical fallacy that occurs when someone’s argument is based, in a problematic manner, on the definition of a certain term as it appears in a dictionary or a similar source. For example, if one person says “this restaurant is freezing” and someone replies by saying “the dictionary says that ‘freezing’ means ‘being at the temperature at which water turns into ice or below it’, and it’s clearly not that cold here”, that person is using the appeal to definition. The main problem with such arguments is that dictionaries don’t necessarily reflect exactly how speakers use language in reality; this is evident, for example, in the fact that dictionary definitions often don’t list all the connotations of words. Another issue with such arguments is that a given term can have more than one definition, which is why it’s fallacious to assume that any single definition is the only right one, and which is why this sort of argument often involves fallacious cherry-picking, where people choose only the definition that best supports their argument. To respond to an appeal to definition, you should first make sure that the use of the definition is fallacious, and then either explain why the use of definition is inappropriate, or why the proposed definition is flawed; you can also use relevant examples to illustrate the problem with this type of argument, and ask your opponent to justify their reasoning.

Answer 40

No matter how good you are at something, or how you rank your accomplishments,there is someone out there who makes you look incompetent.It’s also unlikely that you’re playing only one game. You have a career and friends and family members and personal projects and artistic endeavors and athletic pursuits.You might object: I should be winning at everything! But winning at everything might only mean that you’re not doing anything new or difficult. You might be winning but you’re not growing, and growing might be the most important form of winning. Should victory in the present always take precedence over trajectory across time?So pay attention. Focus on your surroundings, physical and psychological. Notice something that bothers you, that concerns you, that will not let you be, which you could fix, that you would fix. You can find such somethings by asking yourself (as if you genuinely want to know) three questions:“What is it that is bothering me?” “Is that something I could fix?” and “Would I actually be willing to fix it?” If you find that the answer is “no,” to any or all of the questions, then look elsewhere. Aim lower. Search until you find something that bothers you, that you could fix, that you would fix, and then fix it. That might be enough for the day.“What could I do, that I would do, to make Life a little better?”It's all about planting seeds. This is your way of saying, "My past self is the guide for my present self. My present self is the caretaker of my future self. Planting seeds brings integrity by brining them all together."

Answer 41

An important phenomenon. Think first of a simple, upward sloping function of y=2x.Then, beneath the curve, insert a series of log-curves (ie S-curves)...and that as one S-curve succeeds the previous, it ALSO follows the upward slope of y=2x. The result is a series of individual S-curves that incrementally improve on the previous (by following the upward slope of y=2x), but end up maxing-out by hitting the asymptote (or carring capacity) at the top of the S-curve.[Populations, for example tend to follow S-surves. A colony of bacteria, for example, will grow and grow...each wave of growth amplifing the population of the colony...but eventually, growth hits a wall. The colony cannot support anymore bacteria due to space, food, etc., etc. That carring max-out is the asymptote.]Too often, when we analyze phenomena, we forget the interplay between the original y=2x, upward slope into almost infinity...and the series of S-curves. As a result, we get carried away. A simple example is Apple Computers. Apple Computers are continuing a wave of growth in computing power and the ubiquitousness of computers in our lives (ie the y=2x)...and, understandably so, we see this path continung on and on...But the trouble for Apple is that it is merely an S-Curve, following previous S-curves laid out by IBM and Microsoft...both of which MAX-out, even though it was once INCONCEIVABLE that either would, in fact, MAX out. We get fooled by this interplay of an underlying, exponential growth function and the series of succeeding logarithmic S-Functions... all the time!

Answer 42

A fallacy of necessity is a fallacy in the logic of a syllogism whereby a degree of unwarranted necessity (or certainty!) is placed in the conclusion.Example: a) Bachelors are necessarily unmarried. b) John is a bachelor. Therefore, c) John cannot marry.The condition a) appears to be a tautology and therefore true. The condition b) is a statement of fact about John which makes him subject to a); that is, b) declares John a bachelor, and a) states that all bachelors are unmarried.Because c) presumes b) will always be the case, it is a fallacy of necessity. John, of course, is always free to stop being a bachelor, simply by getting married; if he does so, b) is no longer true and thus not subject to the tautology a). In this case, c) has unwarranted necessity by assuming, incorrectly, that John cannot stop being a bachelor. Formally speaking, this type of argument equivocates between the de dicto necessity of a) and the de re necessity of c). The argument is only valid if both a) and c) are construed de re. This, however, would undermine the argument, as a) is only a tautology de dicto--indeed, interpreted de re, it is false.Another example of fallacy by necessity stated less formally:"There are a lot of car accidents on this road. We must reduce the number of car accidents. There would be no car accidents if we closed the road. Therefore we must close this road." The necessity of reducing the number of car accidents is extended to imply the necessity of closing the road; clearly ignoring other plausible solutions to the problem of car accidents.

Answer 43

Related to Narrow vs Broad framing as well as the Distinction Bias.Example: You are offered a choice between two bets, which are to be played on a roulette wheel with 36 sectors.Bet A: 11/ 36 to win $ 160, 25/ 36 to lose $ 15Bet B: 35/ 36 to win $ 40, 1/ 36 to lose $ 10You are asked to choose between a safe bet and a riskier one: an almost certain win of a modest amount, or a small chance to win a substantially larger amount and a high probability of losing. Safety prevails, and B is clearly the more popular choice.Now consider each bet separately: If you owned that bet, what is the lowest price at which you would sell it? Remember that you are not negotiating with anyone— your task is to determine the lowest price at which you would truly be willing to give up the bet. Try it. You may find that the prize that can be won is salient in this task, and that your evaluation of what the bet is worth is anchored on that value.The results support this conjecture, and the selling price is higher for bet A than for bet B. THIS IS A PREFERENCE REVERSAL: people choose B over A, but if they imagine owning only one of them, they set a higher value on A than on B.the preference reversal occurs because joint evaluation focuses attention on an aspect of the situation— the fact that bet A is much less safe than bet B— which was less salient in single evaluation. The features that caused the difference between the judgments of the options in single evaluation are suppressed or irrelevant when the options are evaluated jointly. The emotional reactions of System 1 are much more likely to determine single evaluation; the comparison that occurs in joint evaluation always involves a more careful and effortful assessment, which calls for System 2.

Answer 44

A high school science teacher wanted to demonstrate a concept to his students. He takes a large-mouth jar and places several large rocks in it. He then asks the class, “Is it full?”Unanimously, the class replies, “Yes!”The teacher then takes a bucket of gravel and pours it into the jar. The small rocks settle into the spaces between the big rocks.He then asks the class, “Is it full?”This time there are some students holding back, but most reply, “Yes!” The teacher then produces a large can of sand and proceeds to pour it into the jar. The sand fills up the spaces between the gravel.For the third time, the teacher asks, “Is it full?”Most of the students are wary of answering, but again, many reply, “Yes!”Then the teacher brings out a pitcher of water and pours it into the jar. The water saturates the sand. At this point, the teacher asks the class, “What is the point of this demonstration?”One bright young student raises his hand and then responds, “No matter how full one’s schedule is in life, he can always squeeze in more things!”“No,” replies the teacher, “The point is that unless you first place the big rocks into the jar, you are never going to get them in. The big rocks are the important things in your life …your family, your friends, your personal growth. If you fill your life with small things, as demonstrated by the gravel, the sand, and the water…you will never have the time for the important things.So, what are the “Big Rocks” in your life? Spending time with your children, your parents or your spouse? Taking the seminar or class to get the information and perspective you need to succeed? Making the time to set goals, plan or evaluate your progress? When you are hassled because there is no time, remember the story about the Big Rocks and the Jar!”— Author Unknown

Answer 45

And business owners—whatever their personal qualms—are obligingly declaring their identities as (or their support of) oppressed classes in order to make a buck, or perhaps just to keep the mob off their backs.This, it seems to me, is a consummate and concerning 21st century manifestation of Václav Havel’s famous greengrocer. In his undiminished 1978 essay “The Power of the Powerless,” Havel describes a produce salesman living in a socialist society (much like Havel’s own communist Czechoslovakia), who posts a sign reading “Workers of the world, unite!” in his shop window. This, Havel tells us, is not an act of political solidarity so much as a gesture of deference to power—a forlorn prayer to be left alone. Havel writes:Obviously the greengrocer is indifferent to the semantic content of the slogan on exhibit; he does not put the slogan in his window from any personal desire to acquaint the public with the ideal it expresses. This, of course, does not mean that his action has no motive or significance at all, or that the slogan communicates nothing to anyone. The slogan is really a sign, and as such it contains a subliminal but very definite message. Verbally, it might be expressed this way: ‘I, the greengrocer XY, live here and I know what I must do. I behave in the manner expected of me. I can be depended upon and am beyond reproach. I am obedient and therefore I have the right to be left in peace.’Most of those who trumpet their support of minority-owned businesses in today’s America likely want little more than Havel’s greengrocer—to be left in peace. But one thing that ideological revolutionaries never do is leave normal people alone. Perhaps the best today’s greengrocers can hope for is that (to paraphrase Churchill) if they feed the crocodile enough, it will eat them last.

Answer 46

Summary of Dog-Whistle Politics - **Definition and Overview** - Political language that means one thing to the general population but has a specific meaning for a targeted subgroup. - Pejorative term referring to messages with intentional or disputed subtexts. - Analogy to dog whistles, which are heard by dogs but not humans. - **Origins and Use in Australia** - Originated in Australian politics in the mid-1990s. - Example: Howard Government's policy on illegal immigration. - Messages appear neutral but are meant to appeal to racist segments without overtly racist language. - Key feature: plausible deniability. - **Introduction in the United Kingdom** - Term introduced by Matthew Parris in 2003. - Gained traction in UK political commentary. - **Use in the United States** - Alleged to appeal to racism through code words like "states' rights," "crime in the streets," and "welfare queens." - Former President George W. Bush accused of using biblical phrases and veiled references to court decisions to signal to religious right supporters. - David Gergen accused John McCain’s 2008 campaign of using racial dog whistles, citing an ad featuring Obama as "The One." See also - 📚 [Political Communication](https://www.google.com/search?q=Political+Communication) - 🧠 [Cognitive Bias in Politics](https://www.google.com/search?q=Cognitive+Bias+in+Politics) - 🔍 [Code Words in Political Speech](https://www.google.com/search?q=Code+Words+in+Political+Speech) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Political Rhetoric](https://www.google.com/search?q=Books+on+Political+Rhetoric) - 🎥 [Documentaries on Political Campaigns](https://www.google.com/search?q=Documentaries+on+Political+Campaigns) - 📰 [Articles on Media and Politics](https://www.google.com/search?q=Articles+on+Media+and+Politics)

Answer 47

Summary of Escalation of Commitment - **Definition and Overview** - First described by Barry M. Staw in 1976. - Known as sunk cost fallacy: increasing investment in a decision despite new evidence suggesting it's wrong. - Reflects sentiments like "Throwing good money after bad" and "In for a penny, in for a pound." - **Contexts of Use** - Business, government, information systems, software project management, politics, and gambling. - Military conflicts (e.g., Vietnam and Iraq) where costs and casualties justify continued involvement. - **Alternative Terms** - Irrational escalation, commitment bias. - Irrational decisions based on past rational decisions or justifying previous actions. - **Examples** - **Dollar Auction**: A thought exercise demonstrating the concept. - **Poker**: Players consider themselves "pot committed," leading to poor decisions. - **Robert Campeau**: Overpaid for Bloomingdale's, leading to bankruptcy. - **Brand Wars**: Maxwell House vs. Folgers, Coke vs. Pepsi, Kodak vs. Polaroid, leading to wasted resources without significant market share gains. - **Commercial Airliner Competition**: McDonnell Douglas DC-10 vs. Lockheed L-1011, leading to both companies exiting the market. See also - 💸 [Sunk Cost Fallacy](https://www.google.com/search?q=sunk+cost+fallacy) - 🧠 [Decision-Making in Business](https://www.google.com/search?q=decision+making+in+business) - 🎲 [Gambling Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=gambling+psychology) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Behavioral Economics](https://www.google.com/search?q=books+on+behavioral+economics) - 📉 [Case Studies on Business Failures](https://www.google.com/search?q=case+studies+on+business+failures) - 🏢 [History of Corporate Strategies](https://www.google.com/search?q=history+of+corporate+strategies)

Answer 48

Summary of Information Bias - **Definition and Overview** - A cognitive bias involving distorted evaluation of information. - Arises from curiosity and confusion about goals during decision-making. - Belief that more information improves decision-making, even if irrelevant. - **Over-evaluation of Information** - Belief that acquiring more information is beneficial, even if it doesn't impact the decision. - **Examples in Medical Diagnosis** - Subjects seek unnecessary information for treatment decisions. - Common in medical diagnostic scenarios where extra tests provide no additional value. Globoma Experiment - **Setup** - Female patient likely has globoma (80% probability). - Alternatives: popitis or flapemia. - Each disease has a specific treatment ineffective for the others. - ET scan yields a positive result for popitis, negative for flapemia, and is equally likely for globoma. - Question: Should the ET scan be conducted? - **Findings** - Many subjects chose to conduct the ET scan despite its irrelevance. - Regardless of the ET scan result, the treatment for globoma remains the best course of action. - **Analysis** - Calculation of ET scan value: - Out of 100 patients: 80 have globoma (40 positive ET scans, 40 negative). - 20 have either popitis or flapemia. - ET scan does not change the probability distribution enough to alter the treatment decision. See also - 🧠 [Cognitive Biases in Decision Making](https://www.google.com/search?q=Cognitive+Biases+in+Decision+Making) - 🩺 [Medical Diagnostic Errors](https://www.google.com/search?q=Medical+Diagnostic+Errors) - 🎲 [Probability in Medical Testing](https://www.google.com/search?q=Probability+in+Medical+Testing) References 1. Original study and experiment details on the evaluation of unnecessary diagnostic tests.

Answer 49

Summary of Dadaism - **Origins and Context** - Began in Zürich, Switzerland, during World War I (1916-1922). - Involved visual arts, literature, theatre, and graphic design. - Anti-war, anti-bourgeois, and anarchistic. - Rejected prevailing art standards through anti-art cultural works. - **Philosophy and Activities** - Ridiculed the perceived meaninglessness of the modern world. - Activities included public gatherings, demonstrations, and publishing art/literary journals. - Aimed to shock and provoke rather than appeal to traditional aesthetics. - **Influences and Legacy** - Influenced avant-garde, surrealism, Nouveau réalisme, pop art, Fluxus, and punk rock. - Laid groundwork for abstract art, sound poetry, performance art, and postmodernism. - Seen as a reaction to bourgeois capitalist society and the logic that led to war. - **Key Figures and Events** - Hugo Ball, Emmy Hennings, Tristan Tzara, Marcel Janco, Richard Huelsenbeck, Jean Arp, and others. - Significant events at the Cabaret Voltaire in Zürich. - Spread to Berlin, Cologne, New York, Paris, and beyond. - **Artistic Techniques and Innovations** - Collage: Pasting various paper items and objects. - Photomontage: Using real photographs to express modern life. - Assemblage: Three-dimensional collages using everyday objects. - Readymades: Found objects transformed into art, popularized by Marcel Duchamp. - **Critical Reception and Cultural Impact** - Criticized as destructive and paralyzing. - Described as a reaction to the insanity of war and societal conformity. - Viewed as both a protest and an act of sacrilege. - **Post-Dada Developments** - Many artists moved on to other movements like surrealism and modernism. - Dada's influence persisted in later cultural and political movements. - Notable retrospectives and exhibitions held in Paris, New York, and other cities.

Answer 50

Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of seeing the relationship one expects in a set of data even when no such relationship exists. When people form false associations between membership in a statistical minority group and rare (typically negative) behaviors, this would be a common example of illusory correlation.[1] Illusory correlation is when people tend to overestimate a link between two variables. However, the correlation is slight or not at all. This happens because the variables capture the attention simply because they are novel or deviant. This is one way stereotypes form and endure. David Hamilton and Terrence Rose (1980) found that stereotypes can lead people to expect certain groups and traits to fit together, and they overestimate the frequency of when these correlations actually occur[2]. People overestimate the core association between variables such as stereotyped groups and stereotypic behavior. [3]Chapman and Chapman (1971) studied the effect as it relates to psychodiagnostic signs. Their study showed that although projective testing is not helpful in the diagnosis of mental disorders, some psychologists continue to use such tests because of a perceived, illusory, correlation between test results and certain attributes. An example of a projective test is the "Draw a Person" test that asks patients to draw a person on a blank piece of paper. Some psychologists believe in a correlation between drawing a person with big eyes and paranoia. No such correlation exists, and when data that is deliberately uncorrelated is presented to college students they find the same illusory correlations that psychologists believe in.[4]This bias can be caused by, among other things, an event that stands out as unique. For example, "The only time I forget my pencil is when we have a test". This is most likely an illusory correlation. It could be caused by only a few other pencil-less tests, which stand out particularly well in memory.

Answer 51

Choice architecture describes the way in which decisions are influenced by how the choices are presented, and is a term used by Cass Sunstein and economist Richard Thaler in the 2008 book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness.[1] Parallels are drawn between choice architecture and traditional architecture.Choice architecture' conceptSeveral ways of presenting choices and the way that presentation affects outcomes are explored in Nudge. The book proposes that default outcomes of a situation can be arranged to be the outcome desired by the person or organization presenting the choice. According to the authors this is an underused method. For example a greater supply of transplant organs could be created by a system of presumed consent followed by an opt-out process rather than opt-in. Another principle suggested is laying out various outcomes of a decision in a way that is easy for the choice-maker to understand.Choice Architecture as outlined in Nudge has a broad remit, from personal decision making, to medical options, to social policy. There have been comparisons with many theorists, including the work of B. J. Fogg on computers as persuasive technologies, and the concept of permission marketing as described by Seth Godin. Choice Architecture is similar in spirit to the concept of "heresthetics," or manipulation that changes outcomes without changing people's underlying preferences. This concept has been explored by political scientist William H. Riker.Thaler and Sunstein are former colleagues at the University of Chicago of US President, Barack Obama, and have been described as "informal advisors" by ABC News.Terminology choice architect The person who frames the options, for example someone who chooses how allied products are displayed in a supermarket. libertarian paternalism The idea that it is both possible and legitimate for private and public institutions to affect behavior while also respecting freedom of choice.

Answer 52

Fitch's paradox of knowability is one of the fundamental puzzles of epistemic logic. It provides a challenge to the knowability thesis, which states that any truth is, in principle, knowable. The paradox is that this assumption implies the omniscience principle, which asserts that any truth is known. Essentially, Fitch's paradox asserts that the existence of an unknown truth is unknowable. So if all truths were knowable, it would follow that all truths are in fact known.The paradox is of concern for verificationist or anti-realist accounts of truth, for which the knowability thesis is very plausible, but the omniscience principle is very implausible.The paradox appeared as a minor theorem in a 1963 paper by Frederic Fitch, "A Logical Analysis of Some Value Concepts". W.D. Hart wrote that Fitch's proof was an "unjustly neglected logical gem". Proof--Suppose p is a sentence which is an unknown truth; that is, the sentence p is true, but it is not known that p is true. In such a case, the sentence "the sentence p is an unknown truth" is true; and, if all truths are knowable, it should be possible to know that "p is an unknown truth". But this isn't possible, because as soon as we know "p is an unknown truth", we know that p is true, rendering p no longer an unknown truth, so the statement "p is an unknown truth" becomes a falsity. Hence, the statement "p is an unknown truth" cannot be both known and true at the same time. Therefore, if all truths are knowable, the set of "all truths" must not include any of the form "something is an unknown truth"; thus there must be no unknown truths, and thus all truths must be known.

Answer 53

he false consensus effect is the tendency for people to project their way of thinking onto other people.[1] In other words, they assume that everyone else thinks the same way they do. This supposed correlation is unsubstantiated by statistical data, leading to the perception of a consensus that does not exist. This logical fallacy involves a group or individual assuming that their own opinions, beliefs and predilections are more prevalent amongst the general public than they really are.This bias is commonly present in a group setting where one thinks the collective opinion of their own group matches that of the larger population. Since the members of a group reach a consensus and rarely encounter those who dispute it, they tend to believe that everybody thinks the same way.As an extension, when confronted with evidence that a consensus does not exist, people often assume that the others who do not agree with them are defective in some way.[2] There is no single cause for this cognitive bias; the availability heuristic and self-serving bias have been suggested as at least partial underlying factors. There could also be protective mechanisms behind this phenomenon.The false consensus effect can be contrasted with pluralistic ignorance. In pluralistic ignorance, people privately disdain but publicly support a norm (or a belief), while the false consensus effect causes people to wrongly assume that most people think like them, while in reality most people do not think like them (and express the disagreement openly). For instance, pluralistic ignorance may lead a student to drink alcohol excessively because he believes that everyone else does that, while in reality everyone else also wishes they could avoid binge drinking, but no one expresses that due to the fear of being ostracized. A false consensus for the same situation would mean that a student believes that most other people enjoy excessive drinking, while most other people do not enjoy that and openly express their opinion about it.

Answer 54

A jobsworth is a person who uses their job description in a deliberately uncooperative way, or who seemingly delights in acting in an obstructive or unhelpful manner. The term can also be applied to those who uphold petty rules even at the expense of humanity or common sense."Jobsworth" is a British colloquial[1][2] word derived from the phrase "I can't do that, it's more than my job's worth", meaning taking the initiative and performing an action that is beyond what the person feels is in their job description. The Oxford English Dictionary defines it as "A person in authority (esp. a minor official) who insists on adhering to rules and regulations or bureaucratic procedures even at the expense of common sense."[1] Jonathon Green similarly defines "jobsworth" as "a minor factotum whose only status comes from enforcing otherwise petty regulations".[3]An example of the phrase which gave rise to the term occurs in the 1965 Beatles movie Help!, when Roy Kinnear's character, the assistant scientist Algernon, exclaims "Well it's more than my job's worth to stop him when he's like this, he's out to rule the world...if he can get a government grant."Another early use was by UK folk-singer Jeremy Taylor, in a song he wrote in the late 1960s: Jobsworth, Jobsworth, It's more than me job's worth, I don't care, rain or snow, whatever you want the answer's no, I can keep you waiting for hours in the queue, and if you don't like it you know what you can do.The term became widespread in vernacular English through its use in the popular 1970s BBC television programme That's Life! which featured Esther Rantzen covering various human interest and consumer topics. A "Jobsworth of the Week" commissionaire's hat was awarded each week to "a startling tale of going by the book".[4]The term remains in use, particularly in the UK, to characterise inflexible employees, petty rule-following and excessive administration.[5]The slang expression Little Hitler is also used in Britain with a similar meaning.

Answer 55

The genetic fallacy is a fallacy of irrelevance where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone's origin rather than its current meaning or context. This overlooks any difference to be found in the present situation, typically transferring the positive or negative esteem from the earlier context.The fallacy therefore fails to assess the claim on its merit. The first criterion of a good argument is that the premises must have bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim in question.[1] Genetic accounts of an issue may be true, and they may help illuminate the reasons why the issue has assumed its present form, but they are irrelevant to its merits. [2]According to the Oxford Companion to Philosophy, the term originates in Morris Cohen and Ernest Nagel's book Logic and Scientific Method.[edit] ExamplesFrom Attacking Faulty Reasoning by T. Edward Damer, Third Edition p. 36:“ "You're not going to wear a wedding ring, are you? Don't you know that the wedding ring originally symbolized ankle chains worn by women to prevent them from running away from their husbands? I would not have thought you would be a party to such a sexist practice." There may be reasons why people may not wish to wear wedding rings, but it would be logically inappropriate for a couple to reject the notion of exchanging wedding rings on the sole grounds of its alleged sexist origins. ”From With Good Reason: An Introduction to Informal Fallacies by S. Morris Engel, Fifth Edition, pg. 196:“ America will never settle down; look at the rabble-rousers who founded it. ”A lengthier and more controversial example of the genetic fallacy can be found in The Future of An Illusion, a book by Sigmund Freud in which an attempt is made to discredit the veracity of religion by contemplating its possible psychological origins (including that of wish-fulfillment and the Oedipus Complex). Whether this book is a manifestation of the genetic fallacy or a reasonable criticism of religious beliefs is still disputed among scholars today.

Answer 56

It’s one thing to live and another to live your life in a way that is antifragile.What is AntifragilityAuthor Nassim Taleb says defines the term antifragile this way: Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better. This property is behind everything that has changed with time: evolution, culture, ideas, revolutions, political systems, technological innovation, cultural and economic success, corporate survival, good recipes (say, chicken soup or steak tartare with a drop of cognac), the rise of cities, cultures, legal systems, equatorial forests, bacterial resistance … even our own existence as a species on this planet.Things that are antifragile benefit from randomness, uncertainty, and variation.Living an Antifragile LifeNow that we have this knowledge, what should we do with it?Life is messy and seemingly getting messier. Can we position ourselves to gain from this disorder … to not only recover from mistakes but get stronger?The answer is yes. There are principles we can follow to help us.Buster Benson has some excellent thoughts on how to live an antifragile life, giving us these core principles taken from the Antifragile book: Stick to simple rules Build in redundancy and layers (no single point of failure) Resist the urge to suppress randomness Make sure that you have your soul in the game Experiment and tinker — take lots of small risks Avoid risks that, if lost, would wipe you out completely Don’t get consumed by data Keep your options open Focus more on avoiding things that don’t work than trying to find out what does work Respect the old — look for habits and rules that have been around for a long time

Answer 57

Summary of Inattentional Blindness - **Definition and Overview** - Also known as perceptual blindness. - The inability to perceive visible objects when attention is focused elsewhere. - Caused by limited attention capacity, leading to unprocessed visual information. - **Related Concepts** - **Change Blindness**: Inability to notice changes in a visual scene. - **Attention Limitations**: Humans can only process a limited amount of information at any given time. - **New Sight in Blind Individuals**: Those who gain sight later in life struggle to identify objects due to perceptual blindness. - **Key Experiments** - **Mack and Rock (1992)**: Coined the term inattentional blindness. - **Simons and Chabris (1999)**: Famous "Gorilla" experiment where subjects failed to notice a person in a gorilla suit during a basketball passing video. - **Most, Simons, Chabris, and Scholl (2001)**: Found that a third of participants missed a red cross on a computer screen while focusing on black and white objects. - **NASA Flight Simulator Experiment**: Trained pilots often missed runway distractions, unlike untrained pilots. - **Exploits and Applications** - **Magic and Illusions**: Illusionists use misdirection to exploit inattentional blindness. - **Misdirection**: Focus audience attention away from manipulations. - **Additional Observations** - People are often unaware of how attention significantly affects perception. - Visual field and perception are closely tied to what is being attended to. See also - 👀 [Change Blindness](https://www.google.com/search?q=Change+Blindness) - 🧠 [Attention and Perception](https://www.google.com/search?q=Attention+and+Perception) - 🎩 [Magic Tricks and Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=Magic+Tricks+and+Psychology) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Cognitive Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=books+on+cognitive+psychology) - 🔍 [Visual Attention Studies](https://www.google.com/search?q=Visual+Attention+Studies) - 🧩 [Cognitive Experiments](https://www.google.com/search?q=Cognitive+Experiments)

Answer 58

Summary of Atrocity Story - **Definition and Overview** - Coined by David G. Bromley, Anson D. Shupe, and Joseph Ventimiglia in 1979. - Refers to the symbolic presentation of actions or events, real or imaginary, that flagrantly violate shared social norms. - Used to reaffirm normative boundaries and clearly locate violators beyond public morality. - **Controversy and Credibility** - **Apostates' Testimony**: The reliability of accounts from former members of new religious movements is debated. - **Bryan R. Wilson**: Argues that apostates seek self-justification and may be biased, portraying themselves as victims turned crusaders. - **Jean Duhaime**: Suggests that apostate stories should not be dismissed outright despite their subjectivity. - **Danny Jorgensen**: Points out the media's role in constructing reality and its reliance on sensational atrocity stories from apostates. - **Michael Langone**: Criticizes the uncritical acceptance of current members' positive reports while labeling ex-members' accounts as "tales." - **Media and Public Opinion** - The media often favors sensational stories involving accusations of abuse within new religious movements. - Lack of insider information contributes to the media's focus on negative accounts. - **Other Uses** - Atrocity stories are also used in propaganda to shape public opinion during wartime. - Originated in health care contexts, discussing how patients talk about doctors to assert and defend occupational character. See also - 📚 [Sociology of Religion](https://www.google.com/search?q=Sociology+of+Religion) - 📰 [Media Sensationalism](https://www.google.com/search?q=Media+Sensationalism) - 📖 [Propaganda Techniques](https://www.google.com/search?q=Propaganda+Techniques) You may also enjoy - 🎥 [Documentaries on New Religious Movements](https://www.google.com/search?q=Documentaries+on+New+Religious+Movements) - 📊 [Studies on Media Influence](https://www.google.com/search?q=Studies+on+Media+Influence) - 🧠 [Psychology of Apostasy](https://www.google.com/search?q=Psychology+of+Apostasy)

Answer 59

Summary of Munger's Two-Step Process for Effective Decision Making - **Overview** - A simple and lightweight approach to decision making. - Prevents manipulation by understanding forces at play and subconscious influences. - Framework provided by Charlie Munger in "A Lesson on Elementary Worldly Wisdom." - **Step 1: Understand the Forces at Play** - **Know Your Circle of Competence**: Be aware of what you know and what you don’t know. - **Use Inversion**: In areas outside your competence, think backwards to avoid mistakes. - **Identify Key Variables**: Focus on the few variables that have the most impact. - **Develop Fluency**: Gain deep knowledge in relevant areas and integrate big ideas from multiple disciplines. - **Step 2: Understand Psychological Factors** - **Recognize Human Misjudgment**: Be aware of overconfidence and other biases. - **Subconscious Influences**: Understand how your subconscious can lead you astray. - **Sample Size Fallacy**: Avoid making decisions based on small sample sizes. - **Commitment Bias**: Be cautious of staying committed to past decisions without reevaluation. - **Authority and Conformity**: Don’t default to authority or what everyone else is doing. - **Multiple Factors**: Extreme outcomes often result from multiple factors working together. - **Self-Serving Bias** - **In Yourself and Others**: Recognize and mitigate self-serving biases in your own thinking and anticipate it in others. - **Persuasion**: Use appeals to self-interest rather than reason to persuade others effectively. See also - 📚 [Decision Making Frameworks](https://www.google.com/search?q=Decision+Making+Frameworks) - 🧠 [Cognitive Biases](https://www.google.com/search?q=Cognitive+Biases) - 🔄 [Inversion Thinking](https://www.google.com/search?q=Inversion+Thinking) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books by Charlie Munger](https://www.google.com/search?q=Books+by+Charlie+Munger) - 🧩 [Psychology of Decision Making](https://www.google.com/search?q=Psychology+of+Decision+Making) - 🎥 [Interviews with Charlie Munger](https://www.google.com/search?q=Interviews+with+Charlie+Munger)

Answer 60

Summary of "There's No Such Thing as 'Now'" - **Concept of 'Now'** - 'Now' is highly localized and not a universal concept. - Due to the speed of light, different locations experience 'now' differently. - Communication across distances involves time lags (e.g., hearing someone in another country nanoseconds later). - On a larger scale (e.g., lightyears), 'now' varies significantly. - **Special Relativity** - Dictates a partial, not complete, order to the structure of time. - There is no shared present moment in the universe. - Each observer has a different 'now' based on their position and velocity. - Events can be in your past, future, or neither relative to another observer. - **Spacetime Structure** - Spacetime consists of cones with events of the past converging towards the present and diverging into the future. - Time passes at different speeds for each person in their respective cones. - No linear representation of time; it's a collection of different events and happenings. - **Relativity of Time** - Aristotle's notion: time measures change. - Different clocks measure different times relative to specific events. - Time is distinct for each event being measured. - **Implications** - The world is a collection of events and happenings, not static things. - Everything is constantly changing, even seemingly unchanging objects like stones erode over time. Key Takeaway Special relativity dictates that time is not a universal linear progression but a relative measure that varies based on an observer's location and movement. This perspective emphasizes that 'now' is not a shared moment across the universe but a localized and relative concept. See also - 🌌 [Theory of Special Relativity](https://www.google.com/search?q=Theory+of+Special+Relativity) - ⏳ [Philosophy of Time](https://www.google.com/search?q=Philosophy+of+Time) - 🔭 [Spacetime Continuum](https://www.google.com/search?q=Spacetime+Continuum) References 1. Discussion on the speed of light and its impact on the perception of 'now'. 2. Einstein's theories on relativity and time dilation. 3. Aristotle's views on time as a measure of change.

Answer 61

Like other forms of inference, we use abductive reasoning in everyday thought. With induction, we start with specific cases to make conclusions about a general rule. With deduction, we start with a general rule to make conclusions about specific cases. With abduction, however, we generate a hypothesis to explain the relationship between a specific case and a general rule. More concisely, in abductive reasoning, we make an educated guess. Here is a timely example: this is a very partisan news story; that media outlet I dislike is very partisan; this news story is probably from that media outlet!There are a few remarkable things about abductive reasoning. Significant amongst them is that abductive reasoning can be erroneous. (Although, this is true of induction, as well. Notice, when Siri still botches your voice to text input.) However, the most remarkable aspect Peirce asserted plainly was, abduction “is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea.”5 Remember, with deduction we already began with a rule and merely decided if our case qualified—we are not generating either piece for ourselves. Inductive reasoning merely assumes that information which we already possess will be predictive into the future. But, in the example of abduction, we adapt information gleaned elsewhere to infer a conclusion about our current problem. In the above example, we recall what we know about some media outlet to explain why the story is partisan. This is the new idea we are introducing to the case.It is very difficult for a computer to perform this kind of task well. Humans, on the other hand, are effortlessly proficient at it. Part of what makes abduction challenging is that we have to infer some likely hypotheses from a truly infinite set of explanations. Partisan media outlets are a dime a dozen. Not to mention that the story could be funded by the hundreds of partisan think-tanks, political campaigns, corporate lobbyists, or activist organizations. The news story could originate from foreign election interference, or simply be this week’s blog post from that friend on Facebook. Best of all, the news story could be partisan because Mercury is in retrograde.

Answer 62

the basic axiom of clinical psychology which reads, ‘If you could see the world the way I see it, you’d understand why I behave the way I do.’ That’s pretty good isn’t it? Now there’s two corollaries to that axiom. And I say if you buy the axiom, which you should, you must buy the two corollaries as well because they’re logical extensions. They’re undeniable.Corollary number one: If that axiom is true and you want to understand the way someone’s behaving, you must see the world as they see it.Corollary number two: If you want to change a human being’s behavior and you accept that axiom, you must necessarily, to get them to change, you must change how they see the world. Now this sounds impossible. It’s not really that hard. The basic axiom of clinical psychologyThe basic axiom of clinical psychology reads, ‘If you could see the world the way I see it, you’d understand why I behave the way I do.’ A great Turkish Proverb'No road is long with good company.’ Newton’s Third Law of Motion and Mirrored ReciprocationFor every action there will always be an equal and opposite reaction. Your entire life. Every interaction you have with another human being is merely mirrored reciprocation.Yes if I put this bottle of water on this table, Newton’s Third Law of Motion says that if the bottle pushes down on the table with ‘force x’, and it also strangely says that the table pushes back with equal ‘force x’. That’s very strange. But you know how long that’s been true? 13.7 billion years that’s been true. Now what if I push down twice as hard, what does the table do? Well if I push down twenty one and a half times as hard? What does the table do? Twenty one and a half! OK. Now is there a good word, a catchall word to describe what we’re talking about here when this pushes down and this thing pushes back? Yeah, it’s reciprocation isn’t it? But it’s not mere reciprocation. It’s perfectly mirrored reciprocation. The harder I push, the harder it pushes back. Does everybody buy that? That’s bucket number one. That’s how the world works. It’s mirrored reciprocation. Everything in the inorganic universe works that way.Your entire life. Every interaction you have with another human being is merely mirrored reciprocation.

Answer 63

Summary of Congruence Bias - **Definition and Overview** - A cognitive bias similar to confirmation bias. - Occurs due to overreliance on direct testing of a hypothesis and neglect of indirect testing. - **Examples** - **Button Experiment**: Presented with two buttons, a subject may only test one (direct test) rather than testing the other to indirectly confirm the hypothesis. - **Wason (1960, 1968b) Experiment**: Subjects presented with the sequence "2, 4, 6" often assume the rule is "numbers ascending by 2" and only test sequences that fit this rule, failing to consider other possibilities. - **Classic Example: Wason's Number Sequence Test** - Subjects were asked to identify the rule governing the sequence "2, 4, 6." - Many assumed the rule was "numbers ascending by 2" and tested sequences like "3, 5, 7." - The actual rule was simply "ascending numbers," but many subjects did not discover this due to their bias towards confirming their initial hypothesis. - **Heuristics to Avoid Congruence Bias (Jonathan Baron)** - **Consider Alternative Hypotheses**: - Ask how likely a yes answer is if the hypothesis is false. - Choose a test with a high probability of giving an answer if the hypothesis is true and a low probability if it is false. - **Distinguish Between Hypotheses**: - Think of alternative hypotheses. - Choose a test likely to give different results depending on which hypothesis is true. - **Application Example: Medical Diagnosis** - A doctor diagnosing appendicitis should not rely solely on a white blood cell count, as it could be elevated due to various conditions, demonstrating the need for tests that can distinguish between alternative diagnoses. See also - 🧠 [Confirmation Bias](https://www.google.com/search?q=Confirmation+Bias) - 🔍 [Cognitive Heuristics](https://www.google.com/search?q=Cognitive+Heuristics) - 📚 [Hypothesis Testing](https://www.google.com/search?q=Hypothesis+Testing) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Cognitive Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=Books+on+Cognitive+Psychology) - 🎥 [Documentaries on Scientific Thinking](https://www.google.com/search?q=Documentaries+on+Scientific+Thinking) - 🧩 [Psychological Experiments](https://www.google.com/search?q=Psychological+Experiments)

Answer 64

Summary of Cognitive Dissonance - **Definition and Overview** - Cognitive dissonance occurs when holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously, causing discomfort. - Contradictory ideas include attitudes, beliefs, awareness of one's behavior, and facts. - People are motivated to reduce dissonance by changing attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, or by justifying them. - **Causes and Effects** - Dissonance arises from logical inconsistencies among cognitions. - Strongly linked to the self-concept; threats to self-identity can cause rationalization. - Examples include the Fox and the Grapes fable, smoking behavior, and rationalizing expensive purchases. - Leads to confirmation bias, denial of evidence, and ego defense mechanisms. - **Key Concepts and Experiments** - **The Ben Franklin Effect**: Asking a favor can reduce dissonance and improve relationships. - **When Prophecy Fails**: Members of a doomsday cult increased proselytization after a failed prophecy to reduce dissonance. - **Boring Task Experiment (Festinger and Carlsmith, 1959)**: Showed that low external justification leads to greater attitude change. - **Forbidden Toy Experiment (Aronson and Carlsmith, 1963)**: Mild threats lead children to devalue a forbidden toy more than severe threats. - **Postdecision Dissonance (Brehm, 1956)**: After making a choice, people increase their liking for the chosen item and devalue the rejected one. - **Applications and Implications** - Cognitive dissonance explains why people rationalize behavior, hold onto beliefs despite contrary evidence, and experience anxiety when self-concept is threatened. - Demonstrates the complexity of human rationality and the power of psychological mechanisms in maintaining self-consistency. See also - 🧠 [Psychological Theories](https://www.google.com/search?q=psychological+theories) - 🔍 [Confirmation Bias](https://www.google.com/search?q=confirmation+bias) - 📚 [Social Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=social+psychology) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Cognitive Dissonance](https://www.google.com/search?q=books+on+cognitive+dissonance) - 📝 [Leon Festinger](https://www.google.com/search?q=Leon+Festinger) - 🤔 [Rationalization in Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=rationalization+in+psychology)

Answer 65

Summary of the Mere-Exposure Effect - **Definition and Overview** - Psychological phenomenon where people develop a preference for things because they are familiar. - Also known as the familiarity principle. - Demonstrated across various stimuli, including words, characters, faces, and sounds. - **Key Research** - **Early Research**: Gustav Fechner (1876) and Edward B. Titchener documented initial observations. - **Robert Zajonc (1960s)**: Found that repeated exposure to stimuli increased positive ratings. Experiments included language usage, prenatal exposure in chicks, and subliminal exposure to Chinese characters. - **Charles Goetzinger (1968)**: Experiment with a student in a black bag showed changing attitudes from hostility to friendship through repeated exposure. - **Bornstein (1989)**: Meta-analysis confirmed the robustness of the effect, with variations based on stimuli type and presentation frequency. - **Zola-Morgan (2001)**: Lesion studies in monkeys supported the idea that affective responses can occur without cognitive processes. - **Theoretical Explanations** - **Two-Factor Theory**: Repeated exposure increases perceptual fluency (ease of processing), which in turn increases positive affect. - Zajonc argued that affective responses to stimuli happen more quickly and confidently than cognitive responses, and that decisions often precede cognitive rationalization. - **Applications** - **Advertising**: Repeated exposure to ads can enhance consumer attitudes, though mixed results exist regarding its effectiveness. Subliminal primes (e.g., happy faces) can influence consumer behavior. - **Stock Trading**: Traders tend to prefer domestic securities due to familiarity. - **Academic Journals**: Familiarity with a journal influences its rating by academics. - **Social Relations**: Mere exposure can sometimes increase hostility between groups with preexisting negative attitudes. See also - 👀 [Familiarity Principle](https://www.google.com/search?q=familiarity+principle) - 📊 [Perceptual Fluency](https://www.google.com/search?q=perceptual+fluency) - 🧠 [Cognitive and Affective Processes](https://www.google.com/search?q=cognitive+and+affective+processes) You may also enjoy - 📈 [Influence of Repetition in Marketing](https://www.google.com/search?q=influence+of+repetition+in+marketing) - 🌍 [Impact of Familiarity in Global Investments](https://www.google.com/search?q=impact+of+familiarity+in+global+investments) - 🎨 [Psychological Effects of Visual Arts](https://www.google.com/search?q=psychological+effects+of+visual+arts)

Answer 66

Summary of Urban Survival Syndrome - **Definition and Overview** - A defense in U.S. jurisprudence that argues actions were justified or excusable due to living in a violent, high-crime urban environment. - First used in the 1994 murder trial of Daimion Osby in Fort Worth, Texas. - **Context and Background** - Emerged after the success of the battered woman syndrome defense, which justified actions due to domestic violence causing a reasonable belief of peril. - Based on the concept that living in an environment with constant racial segregation and violence induces a PTSD-like state. - **Types of Defense** - **Excuse Defense**: Equates daily urban life with a warzone, causing a state similar to PTSD. - **Justification Defense**: Argues that lethal actions were objectively reasonable for survival, making the act justifiable homicide under the common law defense of necessity. - **Historical Cases** - **State v. Brown (1977)**: Allowed expert testimony on police harassment of minorities, supporting the defendant's fear and claim of self-defense. - **People v. Goetz (1986)**: Highlighted the subjective vs. objective standards in self-defense claims. The court ruled that justification for deadly force must have an objective element. - **Osby Trial** - Daimion Osby killed two men, claiming he was in fear for his life due to the dangerous neighborhood. - Expert testimony supported Osby's belief, leading to a deadlocked jury in the first trial. - On retrial, additional psychological testimony was disallowed, resulting in a conviction and life sentence. - **Criticisms** - **Stereotyping**: Criticized for reinforcing negative racial stereotypes, suggesting that all blacks in violent areas react similarly. - **Cultural Relativism**: Flawed because it relies on subcultural norms rather than those of the dominant society. - **Analogous to Battered Woman Syndrome**: Both defenses criticized for portraying individuals as dysfunctional, potentially undermining their credibility. See also - 🧠 [Battered Woman Syndrome](https://www.google.com/search?q=Battered+Woman+Syndrome) - 🔍 [Self-Defense Laws](https://www.google.com/search?q=Self-Defense+Laws) - 📚 [Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)](https://www.google.com/search?q=Post-Traumatic+Stress+Disorder) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Legal Defenses](https://www.google.com/search?q=Books+on+Legal+Defenses) - 🌆 [Crime and Urban Sociology](https://www.google.com/search?q=Crime+and+Urban+Sociology) - 📉 [Impact of Violence on Communities](https://www.google.com/search?q=Impact+of+Violence+on+Communities)

Answer 67

System Justification Theory (SJT) System Justification Theory (SJT) is a theory in social psychology that suggests people have a psychological motivation to defend and justify the status quo, viewing it as good, legitimate, and desirable. This theory posits that individuals want to maintain positive attitudes not only about themselves (ego-justification) and their own groups (group-justification) but also about the overarching social order (system-justification). Examples of System Justification 1. **Compensatory Stereotypes**: - Early research on SJT examined compensatory stereotypes, such as "poor but happy" or "rich but miserable." These stereotypes are thought to balance the perceived disparities between different socioeconomic statuses. - Later studies found that people on the political left are more likely to endorse compensatory stereotypes, while those on the right prefer non-complimentary stereotypes such as "poor and dishonest" or "rich and honest," which serve to rationalize inequality rather than compensate for it. 2. **Support from Disadvantaged Groups**: - One of the more counter-intuitive aspects of SJT is that it affects not only members of dominant groups but also those of disadvantaged groups. Despite incurring disadvantages, members of these groups often support the societal status quo, sometimes to their own detriment and that of their fellow group members. Relationship to Other Psychological Theories - **Status Quo Bias**: - System Justification Theory differs from the status quo bias, which refers to a cognitive tendency to prefer the existing state of affairs when making choices. - In contrast, SJT is primarily motivational, asserting that people need and want to see prevailing social systems as fair and just. This motivational component means that the effects of system justification are heightened when individuals feel psychologically threatened or when their outcomes are perceived to be heavily dependent on the system being justified. See Also - **Ego-Justification**: The tendency to hold favorable attitudes about oneself. - **Group-Justification**: The tendency to hold favorable attitudes about one's own groups. - **Status Quo Bias**: The cognitive preference for the default or established option. - **Compensatory Stereotypes**: Stereotypes that balance perceived disparities between different socioeconomic statuses. System Justification Theory provides a framework for understanding why individuals may support and maintain existing social, economic, and political systems, even when these systems are disadvantageous to them.

Answer 68

Summary of the Sleeping Beauty Problem - **Overview** - A puzzle in probability theory and epistemology. - Involves an agent (Sleeping Beauty) who is woken once or twice based on a coin toss and asked about her belief in the coin landing heads. - **Setup** - **Sunday**: Beauty is put to sleep, and a fair coin is tossed. - **Heads**: Beauty is awakened and interviewed on Monday, then the experiment ends. - **Tails**: Beauty is awakened and interviewed on Monday, then put back to sleep with an amnesia-inducing drug, and awakened and interviewed again on Tuesday. - Beauty is asked upon each awakening: "What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?" - **Solutions** - **Thirder Position** - Argues the probability of heads is 1/3. - **Elga's Argument**: By the principle of indifference, if Beauty knows it's tails, her credence for Monday and Tuesday should be equal. Thus, P(Tails and Monday) = P(Tails and Tuesday) = P(Heads and Monday). Since these outcomes are exhaustive and exclusive, each has a probability of 1/3. - **Long Run Argument**: If the experiment is repeated 1,000 times, Beauty is awoken 500 times after heads (Monday), 500 times after tails (Monday), and 500 times after tails (Tuesday), so the probability of heads is 1/3. - Nick Bostrom supports this with the Self-Indication Assumption. - **Halfer Position** - Argues the probability of heads is 1/2. - **Lewis's Argument**: Beauty receives no new non-self-locating information. Since her initial credence is P(Heads)=1/2, it should remain so because waking up provides no new relevant evidence. - Nick Bostrom supports this with the Self-Sampling Assumption. Variations - **Extreme Sleeping Beauty** - This section suggests variations of the original problem, potentially changing the number of awakenings or the procedures involved. See also - 🧠 [Probability Theory](https://www.google.com/search?q=Probability+Theory) - 🧩 [Epistemology](https://www.google.com/search?q=Epistemology) - 🎲 [Philosophical Puzzles](https://www.google.com/search?q=Philosophical+Puzzles) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Decision Theory](https://www.google.com/search?q=Books+on+Decision+Theory) - 🎥 [Documentaries on Mathematical Puzzles](https://www.google.com/search?q=Documentaries+on+Mathematical+Puzzles) - 📝 [Articles on Rationality](https://www.google.com/search?q=Articles+on+Rationality) References 1. Arnold Zuboff, "One Self: The Logic of Experience" 2. Adam Elga, "Self-locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem" 3. David Lewis, "Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga"

Answer 69

Effective Coaching Techniques Small Successes and Specific Praise - **Incremental Improvement**: Encourage growth through small, achievable goals. - *Example*: When playing a video game, say "Good! You're pushing the button at the right time" instead of "Good job! You're doing great." - **Targeted Praise**: Be specific about what actions you are praising. - *Example*: Instead of global praise like "Good job!", say "Great timing on that jump!" Emotion First, Deed Second - **Validate Emotions**: Address emotions before discussing actions or agendas. - *Example*: If someone is upset, acknowledge their feelings first. "I understand you're feeling frustrated right now." - **Empathy Over Agenda**: Show empathy without immediately pushing your agenda. - *Example*: If a child is upset about being teased, respond with "I understand that must be really hurtful" before discussing any solutions or changes. Siding with the 'Enemy' - **Support Before Solutions**: Show empathy even if you agree with the feedback they received. - *Example*: If a child is upset about being called overweight, first acknowledge their feelings: "I understand that made you feel really sad." Handling Anger - **Acknowledge Feelings**: When someone is angry, validate their emotions without trying to solve the problem immediately. - *Example*: If a parent is mad because you haven't visited, say "I understand you're mad and feel we are treating you unfairly. I might feel the same way." Emotional Support - **Listen and Empathize**: Provide emotional support before offering solutions. - *Example*: Instead of giving instant advice, offer a back rub and listen to the person’s feelings. This can help them feel understood and more open to discussing solutions later. Aligning Agendas - **Combine Agendas with Feelings**: Ensure your goals align with the emotional state of the person you are helping. - *Example*: If you want to encourage someone to communicate better, first acknowledge any frustration or anxiety they might have about the situation. Key Principles 1. **Patience and Calmness**: Approach each situation slowly and with a calm demeanor. 2. **Repetition for Reinforcement**: Use repetition to help reinforce learning and behaviors. 3. **Empathy**: Always validate and respect emotions before addressing the deed or agenda. 4. **Specific Praise**: Be specific in your praise to reinforce particular actions and behaviors. Conclusion By focusing on small successes, validating emotions, and aligning your agenda with the feelings of others, you can create a supportive environment that fosters growth and effective communication.

Answer 70

The Prevention Paradox The prevention paradox was first formally described in 1981 by the epidemiologist Geoffrey Rose. It refers to the counterintuitive situation where the majority of cases of a disease arise from a population at low or moderate risk of that disease, while only a minority of cases come from the high-risk population. This paradox occurs because the number of people at high risk is relatively small compared to the larger low or moderate-risk population. # Key Concepts 1. **Low vs. High-Risk Populations**: - High-risk populations have a higher individual risk of developing a disease, but they constitute a smaller segment of the overall population. - Low or moderate-risk populations have a lower individual risk but represent a larger portion of the population. 2. **Case Example**: - **Down Syndrome**: Although maternal age is a risk factor, most cases of Down Syndrome are born to younger, low-risk mothers because they make up the majority of the childbearing population. # Implications of the Prevention Paradox 1. **Health Interventions**: - Large-scale health interventions often result in small perceptible benefits for the majority of individuals. - For one person to benefit, many people may need to change their behavior, leading to a collective benefit that is not immediately visible to individuals. 2. **Policy Challenges**: - Governments and organizations may struggle to implement interventions that are perceived to have little individual benefit, despite significant potential for public health improvement. - The paradox highlights the difficulty in motivating large-scale behavior changes when the benefits are diffuse and not immediately apparent. # Practical Examples - **Vaccination Programs**: Mass vaccination can prevent outbreaks of infectious diseases. However, individuals may not see the immediate benefit if they were not likely to contract the disease in the first place. - **Smoking Cessation**: Public health campaigns to reduce smoking prevalence target everyone, but only a subset of smokers would have developed smoking-related diseases. - **Seatbelt Laws**: Mandating seatbelt use benefits society by reducing injuries and fatalities in car accidents. Individuals may feel that they are unlikely to be in an accident and thus resist the change. Summary The prevention paradox emphasizes that to achieve significant public health benefits, widespread changes in behavior are often required even if the immediate benefit to each individual is minimal. Understanding this paradox is crucial for designing effective public health strategies and policies that aim to improve health outcomes at the population level.

Answer 71

Summary of Appeal to Authority - **Definition and Overview** - Fallacy where a statement is claimed to be true because an authoritative source says it is. - Commonly known as argumentum ad verecundiam or ipse dixit. - The truth of the claim is not necessarily related to the authority of the claimant. - **Structure of the Argument** - Source A says that p is true. - Source A is authoritative. - Therefore, p is true. - This structure is fallacious because authoritative claims can be false. - **Importance in Informal Logic** - Relying on expert judgment is often necessary due to the complexity of many subjects. - Not fallacious when simply arguing that an assertion made by an authority is likely true. - Becomes fallacious when implying the authority is infallible. - **Forms of Appeal to Authority** - **Irrelevant Authority**: An authority on one subject is cited for an unrelated field. - **Relevant Authority**: An authority in the relevant field, though still not infallible. - **Examples and Contexts** - Advertisements using endorsements by celebrities. - Statements like "Arthur C. Clarke recommends flossing three times daily" are irrelevant since Clarke was not a dental expert. - Trusting a surgeon without knowing all details about surgery is practical and often necessary. - Credentials like "John Doe, PhD" without specifying the field can be misleading. - **Logical Fallacy and Inferential Claims** - Factual claim: "A makes claim B." - Inferential claim: "Therefore, B is true." - The fallacy arises when the authority's credibility unduly enhances the claim's credibility. - **Examples** - Referring to religious figures or sacred texts without examining the truth. - Using a well-known figure's quote to imply correctness without further evidence. - Trusting endorsements from people not specialized in the relevant field. - **Nature of the Fallacy** - An appeal to authority cannot guarantee the truth of the conclusion. - The truth of a proposition should be based on evidence, not authority opinions. - Experts' consensus makes it reasonable to believe a claim, but does not ensure its truth. See also - 🧠 [Logical Fallacies](https://www.google.com/search?q=logical+fallacies) - 📚 [Informal Logic](https://www.google.com/search?q=informal+logic) - 🧩 [Critical Thinking](https://www.google.com/search?q=critical+thinking) You may also enjoy - 📖 [Books on Logical Fallacies](https://www.google.com/search?q=books+on+logical+fallacies) - 🎓 [Understanding Authority in Arguments](https://www.google.com/search?q=understanding+authority+in+arguments) - 🔍 [Identifying Fallacies in Everyday Life](https://www.google.com/search?q=identifying+fallacies+in+everyday+life)

Answer 72

Summary of Introspection Illusion - **Definition and Overview** - People mistakenly believe they have direct insight into their mental states. - This illusion leads to confident but false explanations of behavior and inaccurate predictions of future mental states. - Introspection is seen as a process of construction and inference, similar to how we infer others' mental states. - **Components (Emily Pronin)** - People weight introspective evidence strongly when assessing themselves. - They do not give such weight when assessing others. - People disregard their behavior when assessing themselves but not others. - Own introspections are viewed as reliable, unlike others'. - **Unreliability of Introspection** - Introspection does not provide direct access to nonconscious processes. - It's a narrative construction that may not correspond to true nonconscious states. - Nisbett and Wilson (1977) concluded reports on mental processes are often confabulated. - Access to mental contents is possible, but processes remain hidden. - **Choice Blindness** - Experiments show people fail to detect switches in their choices and confabulate explanations for preferences. - Demonstrates unreliability in self-reports of preferences and choices. - **Explaining Biases** - Over-reliance on introspection contributes to various cognitive biases: - **Bias Blind Spot**: People see themselves as less biased than others. - **Perceptions of Conformity**: People think they are less influenced by social norms than others. - **Perceptions of Control and Free Will**: People attribute more free will to themselves than to others. - **Notable Experiments and Theories** - Schwitzgebel and Hurlburt: Mixed views on introspective accuracy. - Paul Eastwick and Eli Finkel: Discrepancy between reported and actual attraction preferences. - Daniel Wegner: Introspection illusion contributes to belief in paranormal phenomena and the experience of control. - **Implications and Criticism** - The illusion of introspection informs biases in comparing oneself to others. - Criticisms exist regarding the extent and significance of the introspection illusion in understanding free will and cognitive processes. See also - 🧠 [Cognitive Bias](https://www.google.com/search?q=cognitive+bias) - 🔍 [Psychological Experiments](https://www.google.com/search?q=psychological+experiments) - 📚 [Adaptive Unconscious](https://www.google.com/search?q=adaptive+unconscious) You may also enjoy - 🤔 [Philosophy of Mind](https://www.google.com/search?q=philosophy+of+mind) - 🧩 [Consciousness Studies](https://www.google.com/search?q=consciousness+studies) - 📖 [Books on Cognitive Science](https://www.google.com/search?q=books+on+cognitive+science)

Answer 73

Hobson's Choice A **Hobson's choice** is a situation where a person is offered a free choice in which only one option is actually available. The person may refuse the option, making the choice essentially between taking the offered option or taking nothing at all—"take it or leave it." This concept is named after Thomas Hobson (1544–1631), a livery stable owner in Cambridge, England. Hobson had a large stable of 40 horses and to ensure that all his horses were used equally, he offered customers the choice of taking the horse in the stall nearest the door or none at all. **Key Characteristics:** - Only one real option is available. - Refusal of the option means getting nothing. - Originally implemented by Thomas Hobson for the rotation of his horses. **Historical Context:** - **Thomas Hobson**: A livery stable owner in Cambridge, England, who devised this method to ensure all his horses were exercised. - **Portrait at Cambridge Guildhall**: A portrait of Thomas Hobson hangs in Cambridge Guildhall with a plaque explaining the origin of the phrase. **Differentiation from Other Concepts:** - **Limited Options**: Unlike a choice among limited options, Hobson's choice offers only one option. - **Blackmail and Extortion**: Involves coercion with the threat of harm or unpleasant action if a payment is not made. - **False Dilemma**: Implies only two choices exist when there are actually more. - **Catch-22, Morton's Fork, Double Bind**: These involve situations where any choice leads to negative or equivalent undesirable outcomes. Modern Usage **Common Misunderstandings:** - Hobson's choice is often mistakenly used to describe a false illusion of choice or a dilemma with undesirable options, but it specifically refers to the choice between something or nothing. **Examples in Modern Context:** - **American Politics**: Presidential candidate Dr. Alan Keyes coined "Dobson's Choice" to describe the dilemma of conservative voters choosing between two less-than-ideal candidates, highlighting the limitations of a two-party system. - **Henry Ford**: The Ford Model T was famously offered in "any color ... so long as it is black," representing a Hobson's choice in the context of color options due to manufacturing constraints. Misuse and Confusion Some people mistakenly use the term "Hobbesian choice" instead of "Hobson's choice," confusing Thomas Hobson with the philosopher Thomas Hobbes. This is historically incorrect, as the phrase originates solely from Thomas Hobson's method of rotating his horses. Conclusion A Hobson's choice simplifies the decision-making process by presenting only one option, emphasizing the lack of true choice. Understanding this concept helps clarify situations where one appears to have a choice, but in reality, only one path is available.

Answer 74

Summary of Terror Management Theory (TMT) - **Definition and Overview** - TMT explores emotional reactions to the awareness of mortality. - Over 175 experiments support TMT, showing that reminders of death often lead to beliefs in mystical transcendence. - Provides a rationale for human behavior when life is threatened, focusing on the existential anguish from the awareness of death. - **Key Concepts** - **Existential Anguish**: Self-reflection and mortality awareness cause continuous existential distress. - **Cultural Worldview**: Provides meaning and security, helping people cope with the terror of death. - **Symbolic Immortality**: Achieved through fame, children, legacies, and literal immortality through beliefs in an afterlife. - **Hypotheses and Empirical Support** - **Mortality Salience Hypothesis**: Reminders of death increase the need to uphold cultural worldviews and self-esteem. - **Anxiety-Buffer Hypothesis**: Self-esteem acts as a buffer against death anxiety. - Experiments across various countries support these hypotheses. - **Authoritarian Leadership** - Based on Erich Fromm's analysis, people in distress are drawn to charismatic leaders. - Traumatized nations and individuals favor authoritarian leaders who uphold traditional values. - **Research and Applications** - **Mortality Salience**: Induced by having participants write about their thoughts on death. - **Effects on Behavior**: Leads to changes that protect worldviews and boost self-esteem. - **Emotion and Motivation**: Fear of death is central to evolution, driving genetic self-preservation. - **Emotion and TMT** - **Love**: Close relationships are sought under mortality salience, overriding other needs. - **Disgust**: Linked to the rejection of animalistic traits and death-related anxiety. - Other emotions like jealousy, shame, guilt, and pride are conceptually linked to TMT but need further research. - **Criticism** - Evolutionary psychologists argue against TMT, suggesting that death anxiety is an adaptive response to avoid threats. - They propose that natural selection would favor organisms without crippling death anxiety. See also - 🧠 [Existential Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=existential+psychology) - 🌍 [Cultural Worldview](https://www.google.com/search?q=cultural+worldview) - 💡 [Fear of Death](https://www.google.com/search?q=fear+of+death) - 📖 [Erich Fromm's Escape from Freedom](https://www.google.com/search?q=Erich+Fromm+Escape+from+Freedom) You may also enjoy - 📚 [Psychological Theories of Motivation](https://www.google.com/search?q=psychological+theories+of+motivation) - 🧬 [Evolutionary Psychology](https://www.google.com/search?q=evolutionary+psychology) - 🔍 [Studies on Mortality Salience](https://www.google.com/search?q=studies+on+mortality+salience)

Answer 75

Summary of *The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman* - **Overview** - Humorous novel by Laurence Sterne, published in nine volumes between 1759 and 1767. - Notable for its digressive style, double entendre, and graphic devices. - Ostensibly a biography of Tristram Shandy, but focuses more on digressions and context than on the protagonist's life. - **Key Themes and Style** - Focus on problems of language and narrative structure. - Extensive use of similes reminiscent of metaphysical poets and Locke's theories from *An Essay Concerning Human Understanding*. - Considered one of the greatest novels for its originality and style. - **Main Characters** - Tristram Shandy: The narrator, whose birth is not described until Volume III. - Walter Shandy: Tristram's father, rational and sarcastic. - Uncle Toby: Gentle and loving, contrasts with Walter. - Other characters: Tristram's mother, servant Trim, chambermaid Susannah, Doctor Slop, and Parson Yorick. - **Plot Highlights** - The novel contains little of Tristram's life but focuses on domestic misunderstandings and humorous incidents. - Explores various topics such as sexual practices, names, noses, obstetrics, and philosophy. - Key incidents shaping Tristram's life include disrupted conception, a crushed nose at birth, and a mangled name. - **Artistic Incorporation and Influence** - Sterne borrowed and rearranged passages from various authors like Robert Burton and Rabelais. - Influenced by Cervantes, Locke, Pope, and Swift. - Techniques used include parody and satire of solemn passages and literary genres. - **Reception and Influence** - Initially had mixed reviews; praised for originality but accused of plagiarism. - Influenced later literary forms, including modernist and postmodernist styles. - Influential figures like Arthur Schopenhauer and Karl Marx admired the novel. - Its narrative devices and humor influenced authors like James Joyce and Virginia Woolf. - **Historical and Cultural Impact** - Sterne's response to Ignatius Sancho's letter became part of abolitionist literature. - The novel's success led to Sterne's appointment as curate of St Michael's Church in Coxwold, Yorkshire. See also - 📚 [Laurence Sterne](https://www.google.com/search?q=Laurence+Sterne) - 🧠 [Metaphysical Poets](https://www.google.com/search?q=metaphysical+poets) - 🔍 [Narrative Devices](https://www.google.com/search?q=narrative+devices) - 📖 [Influence of Tristram Shandy](https://www.google.com/search?q=influence+of+Tristram+Shandy) You may also enjoy - 📜 [History of English Literature](https://www.google.com/search?q=history+of+english+literature) - 📖 [Famous Humorous Novels](https://www.google.com/search?q=famous+humorous+novels) - 📝 [Locke's Essay Concerning Human Understanding](https://www.google.com/search?q=Locke's+Essay+Concerning+Human+Understanding)

Answer 76

Poisoning the Well **Poisoning the well** is a logical fallacy in which adverse information about a target is preemptively presented to an audience with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing everything that the target person is about to say. It is a special case of the **argumentum ad hominem** fallacy and was first used in this context by John Henry Newman in his work _Apologia Pro Vita Sua_. **Historical Origin:** - The term originates from the ancient practice of pouring poison into sources of fresh water before an invading army arrived, thus weakening the invading force. **General Usage:** - In modern usage, poisoning the well refers to the provision of any information that may produce a biased result. For example, if a woman tells her friend, "I think I might buy this beautiful dress," and then asks how it looks, she has "poisoned the well" as her previous comment could affect her friend's response. - Another example is the tautological statement "Everything I say is correct, no matter what you say," which dismisses any counter-argument by definition. Structure of Poisoning the Well A poisoned-well argument typically follows this form: 1. **Presentation of Unfavorable Information:** - Unfavorable information (true or false) about person A (the target) is presented by another. - Example: "Before you listen to my opponent, may I remind you that he has been in jail." 2. **Discrediting the Target:** - Any claims person A then makes will be regarded as false or taken less seriously. - Example: Any subsequent statements by the opponent will be dismissed due to the prior mention of their jail time. **Subcategory:** - Applying an unfavorable attribute to future opponents to discourage debate. - Example: "That's my stance on funding the public education system, and anyone who disagrees with me hates children." Any person who disputes the claim will be labeled as someone who hates children. A poisoned-well argument can also take this form: 1. **Unfavorable Definitions:** - Unfavorable definitions are provided that prevent disagreement or enforce an affirmative position. - Example: "Anyone who opposes this policy is unpatriotic." 2. **Automatic Dismissal:** - Any claims made without first agreeing with the above definitions are automatically dismissed. Key Points to Remember - **Bias Introduction:** Poisoning the well introduces bias against the target before they have a chance to present their argument. - **Fallacious Reasoning:** It is a form of fallacious reasoning that undermines fair debate and discussion. - **Preemptive Attack:** This tactic is used as a preemptive strike to weaken the credibility of the target. Conclusion Poisoning the well is a manipulative technique that aims to discredit a target by introducing negative information before the target has a chance to speak. Recognizing this fallacy is important for maintaining fair and rational discourse.

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