Tversky and Kahneman (1974)

Question 1

Aim

Answer 1

to investigate if an “anchor” would affect the estimations of a mathematical problem among students, to examine the anchoring bias

Question 2

procedure

Answer 2

-sample of high school students were asked to guess the answers to mathematical equations in 5 seconds
- Descending condition asked to estimate the product of 8 factorial: 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1
- Ascending condition in reverse: 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8

Question 3

results

Answer 3

• median estimate for the first group: 2,250
• the second group: 512
• correct answer: 40,320
• difference arose bc the students were doing partial calculations in their heads and then trying to adjust these values to get to an answer
• group who was given the descending sequence was working with larger numbers to start with, so their partial calculations brought them to a larger starting point which they became anchored to.
• participants quickly anchored to the product of the first few numbers of the mathematical expression whch influenced their estimates.

Question 4

conclusion

Answer 4

-researchers concluded that participants relied too heavily on the anchor when making their estiamtion, fidning evidence for the anchoring bias.
- Kahneman and Tversky’s prediction that people rely on the initial cue to make estimates, my result in an error in judgment
- anchoring bias resulted from people’s reliance on fast but fallible mental shortcuts, meaning that they relied on system 1 thinking