Uncertainties Of Future Climate Change/ Why Will It Increase?

Question 1

What is likely to happen to future emissions?

Answer 1

Likely to increase as countries continue to develop e.g. India

Asia, South America are likely to play a big role in future climate change as they have many emerging countries

Question 2

How may thermohaline circulation changes play a part in climate change?

Answer 2

Salinity levels are decreasing as freshwater ice melts into ocean, so warm water flows slower from tropics to northern hemisphere

May make northern hemisphere even colder and southern even warmer

Question 3

Physical factors making future climate change uncertain

Answer 3

Peat stores much carbon, warming causes peat to dry and release carbon = lose store

Peat burning increase for agri/ cattle land- likely to increase with pop growth

Permafrost melts + releases CO2, unknown how rate of melting will go, could there be a positive feedback loop?

Question 4

Human factors making future climate change uncertain

Answer 4

How many emerging countries will industrialise? Will the current ones continue?

How much will emerging middle class grow? Have high demand e.g. cars

China middle class now 50% pop and growing

Question 5

How may forest die-back cause uncertainties?

Answer 5

Warming occurs, vegetation dries and dies, e.g. in Amazon, may reach a ‘tipping point’ where water can no longer be recycled

Leads to the loss of a carbon store and so uncertainties

Question 6

Countries may leave treaties

Answer 6

The USA has left the Paris Agreement, which may prompt other countries to do so as a superpower figure

Some of the largest producers of fossil fuels may decide to move away from renewables