Valuation Flashcards
(113 cards)
What are the 3 major valuation methodologies?
Public Company Comparables (Public Comps), Precedent Transactions and the
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.
Public Comps and Precedent Transactions are examples of relative valuation (based on market values), while the DCF is intrinsic valuation (based on cash flows).
Can you walk me through how you use Public Comps and Precedent
Transactions?
First, you select the companies and transactions based on criteria such as
industry, financial metrics, geography, and timing (for precedent transactions).
Then, you determine the appropriate metrics and multiples for each set – for
example, revenue, revenue growth, EBITDA, EBITDA margins, and revenue and EBITDA multiples – and you calculate them for all the companies and
transactions.
Next, you calculate the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and maximum for each valuation multiple in the set.
Finally, you apply those numbers to the financial metrics for the company you’re analyzing to estimate the potential range for its valuation. For example, if the company you’re valuing has $100 million in EBITDA and the
median EBITDA multiple of the set is 7x, its implied Enterprise Value is $700
million based on that. You would then calculate its value at other multiples in
this range.
How do you select Comparable Companies or Precedent Transactions?
The 3 main criteria for selecting companies and transactions:
1. Industry classification
2. Financial criteria (Revenue, EBITDA, etc.)
3. Geography
For Precedent Transactions, you also limit the set based on date and often focus
on transactions within the past 1-2 years.
The most important factor is industry – that is always used to screen for companies/transactions, and the rest may or may not be used depending on how specific you want to be.
Here are a few examples:
* Comparable Company Screen: Oil & gas producers with market caps
over $5 billion.
* Comparable Company Screen: Digital media companies with over $100
million in revenue.
- Precedent Transaction Screen: Airline M&A transactions over the past 2 years involving sellers with over $1 billion in revenue.
- Precedent Transaction Screen: Retail M&A transactions over the past year
For Public Comps, you calculate Equity Value and Enterprise Value for use
in multiples based on companies’ share prices and share counts… but what about for Precedent Transactions? How do you calculate multiples there?
They should be based on the purchase price of the company at the time of the
deal announcement.
For example, a seller’s current share price is $40.00 and it has 10 million shares
outstanding. The buyer announces that it will pay $50.00 per share for the seller.
The seller’s Equity Value in this case, in the context of the transaction, would be
$50.00 * 10 million shares, or $500 million. And then you would calculate its
Enterprise Value the normal way: subtract cash, add debt, and so on.
You only care about what the offer price was at the initial deal announcement.
You never look at the company’s value prior to the deal being announced.
How would you value an apple tree?
The same way you would value a company: by looking at what comparable
apple trees are worth (relative valuation) and the present value of the apple
tree’s cash flows (intrinsic valuation). Yes, you could build a DCF for anything –
even an apple tree.
When is a DCF useful? When is it not so useful?
A DCF is best when the
1) company is large, mature
2) has stable and predictable cash flows (think: Fortune 500 companies in “boring” industries). Your far-inthe-future assumptions will generally be more accurate there
3) DCF is less subject to market price variations
A DCF is not as useful if the company has unstable or unpredictable cash flows
(tech start-up) or when Debt and Operating Assets and Liabilities serve
fundamentally different roles (ex: Banks and Insurance Firms – see the industry specific guides for more).
What other Valuation methodologies are there?
- Liquidation Valuation – Valuing a company’s Assets, assuming they are sold off and then subtracting Liabilities to determine how much capital, if any, equity investors receive.
- LBO Analysis –Determining how much a PE firm could pay for a company to hit a “target” IRR, usually in the 20-25% range.
- Sum of the Parts – Valuing each division of a company separately and
adding them together at the end. - M&A Premiums Analysis – Analyzing M&A deals and figuring out the premium that each buyer paid, and using this to establish what your company is worth.
- Future Share Price Analysis – Projecting a company’s share price based on the P / E multiples of the public company comparables and then discounting
it back to its present value.
When is a Liquidation Valuation useful?
It’s most common in bankruptcy scenarios and is used to see whether or not shareholders will receive anything after the company’s Liabilities have been paid off with the proceeds from selling all its Assets. It is often used to advise struggling businesses on whether it’s better to sell off Assets separately or to sell 100% of the company.
Enterprise Value/EBIT used for? means?
Profitability multiple
Used for: many types of companies, especially those where CapEx is more important because includes impact from D&A
Means: ~co. value (prop) income from business operations
TEV/EBITDA used for? means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: many companies, most useful when CapEx and D&A not as important
Means: ~ co. value (prop) operational cash flow
P/E? Used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: many types of companies, most relevant for banks and financial institutions bc distorted by non-cash charges, capital structure, tax rates
Means: ~ co. value (prop) after tax earnings
Equity Value / Levered FCF? Used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: not very common bc complicated to calculate and may produce wildly different numbers depending on capital structure
Means: most accurate measure of co. value (prop) true cash flow
TEV / FCF used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: when CapEx or changes in Operational Assets and Liabilities (ex: Deferred Revenue) have a big impact, critical in DCFs
Means: co. value (prop) true cash flow while capital structure neutral
Public Comps Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- based on real data opposed to future assumptions
Disadvantages:
- there may not be true comparable companies
- less accurate for thinly traded stocks or volatile companies
Precedent Transactions Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- based on what real companies have actually paid for other companies (not based on future assumptions)
Disadvantages:
- there may not be true comparable transactions
- data can be spotty, especially for private transactions
DCF Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- not subject to market fluctuations
- theoretically sound since it’s based on ability to generate cash flow
Disadvantages:
- subject to far in the future assumptions
- less useful for fast-growing, unpredictable companies
What multiples would you use for a company that is not profitable?
TEV/Revenue
TEV/EBITDA
Price/Sales = current stock price/sales per share (sales per share = total sales/outstanding shares)
You have 500 EBITDA, trading at 12x EBITDA, you made 50 in interest payments, 50% tax, 10% interest. What’s the EV? Whats the Eq?
TBD, my answer not sure it’s right
Equity Value = 500 EBITDA * 12 = 6000
Enterprise Value =
Equity Value
+ Debt
- Cash
= 6000 + 500 debt
= 6500
Discuss a hypothetical subscription company with a lot of deferred revenue. How does that impact the valuation (acknowledged there is no correct answer. They just wanted to see your thinking process and your view
TBD
You’re advising a client on a buy-side deal. What kind of analysis do you need to conduct on targets?
Trying to get you to say both quantitative valuation analysis and also qualitative (does the deal make sense)
Why would two comparable companies be trading at 10x EBITDA versus 20x EBITDA multiples?
TBD
market mismatch to EBITDA multiples
- one company could have just had an earnings call where they beat analysts’ expectations, increasing their share price and Equity Value
- one company could have internally developed assets like patents that can’t be included on their book value, but are factored in by the market with an increased Equity Value
What is an LBO high level and why is it consider the floor valuation?
You assume a PE company acquires a company and needs to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) such as 15-30%, and work backwards to calculate how much they could potentially pay to achieve that return. It’s a variation of DCF analysis because you still value the firm via its future cash flows, but those cash flows are used to pay off leverage.
It’s considered a floor valuation because it’s the minimum a PE firm will pay for a company - they are incentivized to minimize their entry multiple to maximize their IRR.
If they are more accurate, why are Free Cash Flow multiples less common than EBIT and EBITDA multiples?
1) FCF multiples take more time to calculate, and you have to go through the company’s financial statements in detail.
2) they may not be standardized because companies include very different items in the Cash Flow from Operations section of their CF.
EBIT/EBITDA multiples are more common for
1) convenience
2) comparability
When would you use a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation?
This is typically used with conglomerates like General Electric, companies that have completely different, unrelated divisions.
If you have a plastics, entertainment, and energy division you should NOT use the same set of comparable companies and precedent transactions for the entire company.
Instead, you should use different sets for each division, value each one separately, then add the individual valuations together for a Total Value.