Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
(158 cards)
1
Q
What is an AB voter?
A
Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupations
2
Q
What are the typical jobs of an AB voter?
A
- Banker
- Doctor
- Company director
Senior executive
3
Q
What is a C1 voter?
A
Supervisory, clerical and junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations
4
Q
What are the typical jobs of a C1 voter?
A
- Teacher
- Office manager
- IT worker
Social worker
5
Q
What is a C2 voter?
A
Skilled manual occupations
6
Q
What are the typical jobs for a C2 voter?
A
- Plumber
- Hair dresser
- Mechanic
Train driver
7
Q
What is a DE voter?
A
Semi skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations
8
Q
What are typical jobs for a DE voter?
A
- Labourer
- Bar Staff
- Call centre staff
Unemployed
9
Q
What are arguments for class being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
- Some issues still link to class e.g., taxation
- Some voters still identify with a party based on social class
- Regional voting linked to class
- Social mobility is a major concern for voters
- Manifestos can be centred round “floating voters” in C1C2, who do not vote based on class. Parties rely on the AB DE voters to mainly choose Conservative or Labour respectively.
- Conservative policies are typically seen to help the middle-class and better off, whilst Labour would help public sector workers or working classes, and people voted out of self-interest.
- Major parties developed roots within communities and created a culture of class-based voting; Labour in East London and the Conservatives in the commuter belt, for example.
- AB voters are significantly more likely to turn out to vote than DE voters (68% v 53% in 2019).
- UKIP did better among C2DE voters, who had strong feelings about Brexit.
10
Q
What are arguments against class being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Working Class has declined- in terms of numbers in blue collar jobs, but also just harder to determine w-c as home ownership and educational levels have increased
Parties no longer appeal to voters in terms of class
Other factors have risen in importance - issues like Brexit which have dominated in recent years cross party lines
W/C also less likely to t/o
- Class voting has declined significantly in recent years; in 1964, Labour won 64% of the DE vote, but just 39% in 2019. Similarly, the Conservatives took 78% of the AB vote in 1964 and 45% in 2019.
- Some lower-middle-class or working-class voters aspired to be middle-class, and so voted Conservative to evidence this.
- Class dealignment has meant that fewer people define themselves (and furthermore vote) in terms of class.
- The main parties (including LD) have adopted more centrist platforms to appeal to a wider base of people from all parts of society.
- The Conservatives won the most votes out of every class group in 2019; but this can be contributed to factors like Brexit and alienation from Labour.
- Since DE voters do not typically vote, politicans make policy targeted at ABC1 voters, which in turn alienates more DE voters, and DE voters vote less.
- Green support is consistent across class lines.
11
Q
What is ‘Gender’ in politics as a demographic factor influencing voting in the UK?
A
Often refers to ‘women’ as a group of voters
- In politics, gender often means “women”; parties are much more likely to chase a female vote than a male one, because there is no strategy to win male voters over specifically.
12
Q
What are arguments for gender being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Believed to be important as women care about social issues etc
Since 1997, women have become more likely to vote Labour than men, Conservatives have ceased to be the party of the ‘housewife’ hence don’t vote Conservative as much
Labour 2015 Woman to Woman pink minibus, visited 75 constituencies to encourage women to vote
13
Q
What are arguments against gender being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Gender gap in voting is pretty small
2019 election
Conservative: 46% men, 43% women
Labour: 31% men, 34% women
Lib Dem: 12% men, 12% women
However, the “women’s vote” bloc is quite small and the gender divide in politics tends to be minor.
14
Q
What are arguments for education being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Until 1960s:
People with more academic qualifications were more likely to be middle class, therefore more likely to vote Conservative
People with heavy industry/working class professions didn’t need higher education qualifications, therefore those with higher qualifications tended to vote Conservative
Growth of university courses and access to them has increased (2017-18: 50% of all school leavers went on to higher education), means change in impact of education on politics
Education tends to have a liberalising effect, more voters more likely to vote Labour or Lib Dem the higher their level of qualification
15
Q
What are arguments against education being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Also decreasing number of industrial jobs
Indicating clear education shift
- Conservatives gained working class support w lower levels of education qualifications, previously traditional Labour voters
- Labour gained AB, C1 voters with higher education levels-> Labour now leaning towards socially liberal policies the working class wouldn’t have supported
Conservative party was most popular party across all education groups in 2019
- Support decreased with each new level of education BUT still 8% ahead of Labour with voters with degrees
Education is a factor, but not the main one
16
Q
How does the 2017 election show that Education tends to have a liberalising effect?
A
2017:
47% people with degrees were likely to vote Labour or Lib Dem, 36% vote Conservative, 4% UKIP
- No formal qualifications: 23% vote Labour or Lib Dem, 53% Conservative, 17% UKIP
- GCSES: 31% vote left wing, 62% right wing
- A Levels: 39% vote left wing, 49% vote right wing
17
Q
What are arguments for age being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
1979- Labour had slightly more support with younger voters, Conservative increased support with older voters, there was no large difference, and no proportional difference between the parties
BUT people tended to get more pro Conservative as they got older (ie after 39)
- Reflects economic shift in Britain
1980s-90s: Britain moved from industrial economy to service based economy
- Fewer jobs in ‘class based’ sectors, more focus on white collar, office based jobs
- Property ownership has risen, more people seek to buy homes + become less reliant on state support
- BUT become much harder for young people to buy a home of their own
- Rise of gig economy, more flexible and less well protected jobs, focused on young workers, less interested in traditional Conservative party policies
-> Explains dramatic shift from class to age
Why are younger voters more likely to vote Labour or SNP rather than Conservative
- Younger people tend to be more progressive and less ‘conservative’
- As people age, acquire more assets, tend to become more focused on self interest, rather than wider social issues
- Younger people tend to have less responsibility, later in life responsibilities of a career, family and property ownership may lead to more caution
- Tend to adopt more progressive ideas based on greater levels of reform and change (ie environment protection, social justice, democratic reform)
- Large proportion of newer Labour members in 2015-16, joining to support Jeremy Corbyn, were young voters
Turnout:
- Younger voters are less likely to vote than older voters
- 2017 ‘youthquake’, younger voter turnout was only 54%, 15% average turnout
- Parties tend to prioritise concerns of older voters, ie Ed Miliband 2015, pledges to scrap uni tuition and limit pension increases, led to hard loss of election + Conservative pledge of ‘triple lock’ on pensions appealed to voters, won majority in the following election
18
Q
What are arguments for Ethnicity being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
BAME tend to favor the Labour party for economic and historic factors. Immigrants came to the UK and were often employed in industrial roles in the major cities.
Concentration of BAME voters in large cities.
Conservative party has struggled to shake their reputation as the anti-immigration party.
More BAME people in the working class due to social inequality and thus will vote Labour
BAME voters tend to favor the Labour party with 64% of the BAME electorate voting Labour in 2019.
19
Q
What are arguments against Ethnicity being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Reduction in the gap in 2015-19
Think tank British future psephologists suggested the ethnic bias towards Conservatives might be waning
20
Q
What are arguments for region being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
Wealth, income and property are not evenly distributed in the UK. North-East and far South-West areas of the UK are far regions of increased deprivation relative to the wealth concentration in the South-East
Northern England does seem to be dominated by Labour.
Rural areas have shown to be Conservative strongholds like the Midlands.
Labour dominates in London, big industrial city, holding the largest percentage of Labour votes compared to any other region
21
Q
What are arguments against region being the most important demographic influence on voting in the UK?
A
The Labour domination of Northern England appears to be hugely indecisive which would seem incongruous with the fact that the North of England is one of the most deprived areas
22
Q
What was voting like with class alignment?
A
- 1950s-60s, most people voted based on class (working class= Labour (60%), middle class= Conservative)
- Labour focused on workers rights, Conservatives focused on prosperity and social mobility, property ownership
- Little change between election results per election
23
Q
What has voting been like with Class dealignment?
A
Since 1970s- Class dealignment
- People don’t vote based on class
- 2017 GE: 43% middle class conservative, 44% working class Labour
- Working class vote Conservative due to views on Europe, Immigration and Law and Order. Middle class vote Labour due to sympathetic to their concerns + feel insecure in their jobs and want more protection
- Cannot assume where people are going to vote due to their occupation
Harder to predict election outcomes
24
Q
What was voting like with Partisan alignment?
A
- People identify strongly with a political party
- 70s- 40% strongly align with Labour/Conservative (overall little change/swing)
25
What has voting been like with Partisan dealignment?
Post 70s
90s onwards: 10-11% only strongly align with LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE
- Growing perception that neither Labour or Conservative in power are not good enough socially, economically or politically (disallusionment)
- People stopped defining themselves with class (feel Labour/Conservative is outdated)
- The 2 parties are too similar, not enough choice
- The 2 parties are too ideological and divergent, do not represent centrist views
- Lack of representation of the public
26
Why has Partisan dealignment become more popular?
- Emergence of third parties (UKIP, SNP, Reform, Green etc)
- Devolved assemblies (different electoral systems encourage different voting tactics ie less tactical voting)
- 90s onwards Lib Dem emergence (breakthrough, outlines decline in Cons/Lab
- Reform/UKIP have high vote share, low seats but large following
- Leading to multi party system
27
What is Issue voting?
- Voters make judgements on parties based on their views on issues close to voters
- People vote on issues for them, their family and the country (economy, NHS, education, Pensions)
- Valence voting: voters agree on important issues but disagree which party is more credible and policy-> Traditionally Conservative is good at economics, Labour is good at social
28
How was the 2017 GE a departure from Valance voting?
4 most important issues for Lab voters (NHS, Austerity, Brexit, inequality)
Issues for Cons voters (Brexit, leadership, economy, immigration)
Difference between parties
Higher importance of issues
Consumer voting is more common
29
How is Party leadership important in terms of voting behaviour?
- Judge parties on the credibility, reliability of leader
- More Americanised system (leader is more important than the party they represent)
- 1992- Major was safe, reliable than Kinnock
- 1997- Major popularity fallen with Scandal, Blair was new and charismatic
- 2010- Cameron trusted and liked more than Brown (Cameron was more popular than the Conservative party itself, liked the Labour party but not the leader)
Look at personality, charisma but also leadership reputation
- Problem with Jeremy Corbyn, lack of authority (damaged party prospects) (people liked the party but not the leader)
30
How has/is age important in voting behaviour?
- Continuity, lack of change
- Older people tend to vote conservative
- 2017: 18-14, 66% voted Labour, 18% Conservative. 65+, 23% Labour, 68% Conservative
- Conservative votes reflect the self interest, stability concerns, more realistic and cynical of the world
- People feel young people are idealistic, and become more contained as they get older
Generational cohorts- parents of old age pensioners were brought up before Labour was established as a political party (in 1945), now following their parents values-> repeated through generational values
- If that is true, Conservative party support will decline
31
How has/is gender an important factor in voting behaviour?
- Pre 90s: Women were more inclined to vote Conservative than men
- Lack of research
- Maybe as lack of workplace struggles when women couldn't work (men joined trade unions, women didn't see this as an issue
- Conservative party was the party of the family (as housewives, felt seen)
Now women seem to vote the same way as men (lack of different between party in women/men divides)
- Decline in women support for Conservatives
32
Why does Turnout vary from one election to the other?
- People preconceive that a certain party will win, so feel there is no point in voting
- If one party is so bad or so good, people feel there is no point voting
- Abstaining from voting if none of the parties were good enough
33
Is there a long term trend in turnout in the UK?
Overall varies but general decline in turnout over time
34
What is the relationship between age and turnout and has this relationship been consistently seen in all elections since 2001?
- Younger voters are more reluctant to turn out and vote compared to older generations, exaggerates impact of age on election and referendum outcomes
- 1992 to 2015, young people voting fell by 19%, turnout amongst other voter groups, especially aged 55+ stayed the same
- The older a person is, the more likely they are to vote
- 2017 'youthquake', Labour had more support than expected, costed Conservatives a majority. 54% fell to 47% in 2019, increase in turnout may have been an anomaly
35
2) What are the main reasons for the decline in turnout among younger voters?
- Widespread disillusion with conventional politics (maybe due to policies that discriminate against young people from politicians, or general apathy + lack of concern with politics for the young)
- Find other ways to participate: e petitions, direct action, social media campaigns, moving away from conventional political activities
- Young people tend to be more interested in single issues than broad political ideologies (ie low turnout + less interest in political parties but higher pressure group activity and online campaigning)
- Abstain as they feel no political party is worth their support or adequately represents them
36
What could be done to encourage more young people to consistently vote?
- Ensure political parties represent them and their views
More education in schools
37
What is the relationship between class and turnout?
Class AB has higher turnout than class DE
38
What are the main reasons why C2 and DE voters might not vote?
- Do not feel the outcome will make any difference
- Voter apathy
- Second order elections, people feel there is no power concentrated there, no point in voting
39
Could you encourage C2 and DE voters to the polling station would be the same as for younger people?
- in terms of making them feel seen as voter groups within party policy, yes
- But in terms of political education, no. As it is easier to educate younger people rather than people who have already started working, can educate easier through school rather than door to door leaflets
40
What are factors affecting individual voters?
* Tactical voting
* The image and reputation of the party
* The leader and whether they seem ‘Prime Ministerial’
* Key issues during the campaign
* How parties have performed in office
Party manifestos
41
Why was Thatcher seen as a war hero by 1983 who was “not for turning”? (party leadership 1983)
Falklands War- Argentinian Military invasion vs Thatcher war zone declared-> seen as patriotic and bold, boosted Britain's rapidly declining stand on the world stage
Callaghan 'I wish I'd had a war'
42
Why was Foot seen as out-of-touch with the changing zeitgeist of the UK? (party leadership 1983)
Thatcher was strong (Falklands War) seen as hero, Iron Lady
Foot didn't appeal to the growing middle class
Wore Donkey jacket to Remembrance Service- not respected, don't see him as serious
43
How had measures such as the Employments Acts and the Housing Act showed that the Conservatives were right for both the times and disillusioned Labour voters? (party image 1983)
Gave people opportunity to buy council houses at a discounted price, Thatcher more popular in a property owning democracy (more likely to vote Tory if they own property)
Employments Acts limited powers of Trade unions (popular as they caused Winter of Discontent)
44
Why had events of 1979 done serious damage to Labour Party’s image? (party image 1983)
Support for trade unions was unpopular
45
What were “New Right” themes in the Conservative Manifesto that tapped into the zeitgeist? (policy/manifesto 1983)
Economic- focused on privitisation, tax cuts
Socially- reduction in public welfare
Foreign policy- NATO support, defence spending
Law and Order- tough on crime, greater powers to the police
Sense of national pride, freedom whilst still controlling
46
Why was the Labour Party’s manifesto dubbed the “longest suicide note in History”? (policy/manifesto 1983)
Opposite of Tories, public saw most of these policies as the reason the Winter of Discontent got so bad in the first place
Economic- Commitment to nationalisation, increase public spending, wealth redistribution
Socially- welfare expansion, social housing expansion
Foreign Policy- unilateral nuclear disarmament, distancing from US
Law and Order- improvement to social welfare, tough on causes of crime
47
What key messages did the Conservatives push and get right? (election campaign 1983)
National security, economic prosperity
Pushing the idea Labour would ruin Britain
48
What key messages did Labour push and get wrong? (election campaign 1983)
Labour party for a fairer Britain
Criticised for being too radical
49
Why were the socio-economic circumstances of the early 1980s not in fact favourable for the Tories? (wider socioeconomic 1983)
Lady that's not for turning- meant high unemployment figures, feeling Thatcher's policies weren't working
50
Why were Labour still haunted by the socio-economic context of their previous spell in government (1974-9)? (wider socioeconomic 1983)
Winter of Discontent
51
What was the SDP-Liberal Alliance and why did it play such a pivotal role in the election outcome? (3rd party influence 1983)
1981-88
Alliance won 25.4% compared to Labour 27.6%
SDP (social democratic party- socially right wing branch of the Labour Party), broke away from the Labour party from 9 high profile MPs
Liberal party (socially left Conservative party)
52
How had Spitting Image and a “back to basics” speech helped to cultivate an image of “boring John Major”?
(1997 Party Leadership)
Only 10 years older than Blair
Sketches that showed him as an old grey man eating dinner with his wife in silence (boring)
Back to basics (traditional Conservative values- but seemed out of touch due to the affairs etc of Conservative MPs)
Major more popular than the party at the time of the election
Lots of affairs and scandals
53
How and why did Blair tap into the “Cool Britannia” zeitgeist?
(1997 party leadership)
Pride in UK culture, pop culture
Younger (43 years old) , different to Major
15 points ahead of the Tories under John Smith, enticed new younger voters under Blair
54
Why were the Conservatives seen as a party of “sleaze” and division by 1997? (1997 party image)
Lots of scandals-
MP David Mellor, resigned in 92 as he had an affair with an actress
MP Stephen Milligan
Neil Hamilton, 94 accused of cash for questions scandal
Tim Yeo
Major was seen as boring
Hypocritical people (MPs who were for traditional values ie against homosexuality, single mothers- but then found to have been connected to that)
lots of Sleaze
Divide between Eurosceptics and Europhiles
Tired after 18 years in office
55
How had New Labour reinvented themselves since the “longest suicide note”?
(1997 party image)
Repealed clause 4 (socialist) from manifesto- distinguished new from old Labour
Small slogans that reflect something modern, new and better
83-97: reinvention from 'longest suicide note', but kickstarted by Blair
Alistair Campbell 'spin doctor'
New branding saw them electable to lots more people
56
How did the Conservative Party’s manifesto show that they had not truly let go of Thatcherism? (1997 policy/manifesto)
Wanted further prvitisation ie of postal service, further on Thatcherism
Wanted to privatise all remaining nationalised industries
Reduce basic rate of income tax to 20p
57
Why were Labour’s “Pledge Cards” a perfect example of “catch all” politics? (1997 POLICY/manifesto)
Issues pledge cards- portable cards with policies on
Cut class sizes below 30 for 5-7 years
Tough on crime
Tough rules for government spending and borrowing
Treating more NHS patients
Getting 250,000 under 25 yo to work
58
What key messages did the Conservatives push and get wrong? (1997 election campaign)
Conservative campaign was divided and reactionary
Employed lots of negative campaigning, didn't resonate with voters at the time of 'Cool Britannia'
Didn't know wether to attack Labour for being too left wing or too in line with Conservative values
59
How did the “spin doctors” help guide the Labour Party to victory (e.g. the “Anti-sleaze Candidate” and what song did they choose as their election anthem? (1997 election campaign)
Blair front and centre- Presidential like campaign (Clinton inspired)
Things can only get better (optimism)
Youthful and scandal free
60
Why had the Conservatives lost economic credibility by 1997?
(1997 wider socioeconomic)
Interest rates hiked to 15% in 1992 due to value of pound crashing out of ERM (Exchange rate mechanism)
Europe divides in the party
Huge rebellions with small majority
Black Wednesday
61
Why did the emerging “Cool Britannia” zeitgeist favour the Labour Party? (1997 wider socioeconomic)
Not traditional politician
62
Did the Lib Dem surge hurt Labour or the Conservatives?
(1997 3rd party influence)
Fear of the Blair effect- taking their votes away as New Labour was similar to them on the political spectrum
Lack of funds meant their campaign was less effective
Labour moved right, Lib Dem moved left to pick up voters that felt unrepresented by Labour
Tactical voting + targeting of winnable seats-> increased seat share to 46 seats
Hurt the Tories who dropped seat share form 336 to 135
63
How important was Boris Johnson’s media image and reputation as London Mayor?
(2019 PARTY LEADERS)
Criticised for handling deputy mayor Stephen Greenhalgh
Played on his masculinity a lot, male industries, building sites etc
Negative image already pre partygate
Saw him as a relatable, regular guy
64
Why was Jeremy Corbyn such a decisive figure? (2019 party leaders)
Left leaning, anti austerity
Played 'grandfatherly figure'
Largest party vote share increase in 2017 since WW2
2019- was seen as anti Semetic, too ambitious and too vague in his plan, less solid of an option that Johnson
Tried to pretend Brexit didn't exist in 2019, ignored in 2017 but 2019 it was more important and people felt he missed the zeitgeist
65
How united did the Conservatives appear in the wake of Theresa May’s resignation?
(2019 party image)
Cabinet was split due to strong opposing ideologies BUT decisive on voting for Boris Johnson as leader, gave him lots of legitimacy in Cabinet
66
How was Labour’s reputation damaged by anti-Semitism and internal disputes over Brexit? (2019 party image)
Failings in acting on anti-Semitic complaints
Lack of responsibility taken from Corbyn for anti Semitism, saying it wasn't a problem, but Corbyn was focused on other things that were minor
67
Why was the Conservative’s message seen as clearer on Brexit? (2019 policy and manifesto)
Get Brexit done- slogan
All their advertising was focused on being the best party to carry out Brexit
Corbyn was the target of Conservative campaigning- using his unpopularity
68
Why did Labour find it difficult to present a clear approach to Brexit?
(2019 policy and manifesto)
Labour has a foggy governance structure and weak media strategy
Used the same things they used in the 2017 election which helped them win, bu not effective with the Conservative Brexit narrative
Targeted marginal seats but should've defended safer seats
69
What key messages did the Johnson and the Conservatives push and get right?
(2019 election campaign)
'oven ready Brexit deal'
Got rid of all the MPs and candidates that didn't like Brexit
Went down on immigration policy to target more Labour voters- introduce a point system (didn't follow through due to COVID)
Lots of things for old people: target lots of voters + conservative voters
70
What key messages did Corbyn and Labour push and get wrong? (2019 election campaign)
Not about Brexit at all, just change
Only mentioned Brexit on 89th page in the 'Brexit election'
If they had a referendum, Corbyn wouldn't take a stance like in 2017 (aren't learning from mistakes)
71
How had Brexit and the election of Trump in the USA impacted the Conservatives and wider British politics? (wider socioeconomic 2019)
General shift towards the right, people becoming patriotic
MAGA + Get Brexit done- similar
Idea that the right wing parties were the ones that could get things done
72
How popular were Corbyn’s policies to the wider public?
(2019 wider socioeconomic)
People thought the Labour manifesto was not relevant and didn't resonate with what people cared about most at the time
More for the younger voters
Age is key demographic
73
How did Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP and Jo Swinson do in this election?
(2019 3rd party influence)
SNP Won 48 seats, 45% of vote
- Wanted another independence referendum, winning support sent message to Parliament of what Scottish wanted
Jo Swinson stepped down as Lib Dem leader after losing her seat to SNP by 149 votes
- Wanted to stop Brexit
74
For what reasons was Rishi Sunak seen as out of touch? (2024 part leaders)
Rishi Sunak is an extremely wealthy individual, and he is also married to a rich heiress
Sunak didn't know how to use a contactless card, and put petrol in a supermarket employees' car, rather than show off his luxury cars
He wore a £3,500 bespoke Bloomsbury suit, and £490 pair of loafers to a building site
The infamous 'Sky TV' incident
When he was 21, she said to the BBC he has 'friends who are aristocrats, […] friends who are upper-class, […] friends who are, you know, working-class. Well, not working-class'
75
Why was Keir Starmer seen as a safe-pair of hands? (2019 party leaders)
Polls found that Starmer was more trusted by the public on national security than Sunak
He has lots of years of experiences as a lawyer
He has always prioritised 'country before party'
He always stressed he will not make a promise unless he is certain he can fulfil it which inspired trust
76
Why did the Conservative Party struggle to maintain a united front during the election campaign? (2024 party image)
Shortly after the election, it came to light that a lot of cabinet ministers had been kept in the dark until the last moment regarding the calling of the election
When Sunak declared the return of national service, this managed to create the beginning of the divide in the Conservative party
Tory insiders say there was a sense of blame from inside CCHQ towards the aides from No 10 who joined them in the office who had made the timing decision
The CCHQ was severely lacking the presence of senior politicians in the room, with the campaign 'essentially being run by SPADS'
Issues between CCHQ and NO 10
77
How had Labour positioned themselves in the run up to the election? (2024 party image)
Labour's campaign managers ran a carefully controlled campaign, focusing on marginal seats
They positioned themselves as the party of change
'Decline and chaos continuing under the Tories or rebuilding our country under Labour’ this sentiment echoed throughout the campaign emphasised that Labour could be trusted with power
They stressed economic stability and the £22 bn black hole
Labour made very few dramatic policy announcements, keeping a very disciplined campaign, nothing was done to put victory at risk
78
What issues did the Conservatives emphasise in the election campaign and why were they not trusted? (policy/manifesto 2024)
Key policies:
Return the right to buy to help people get on the property ladder
Boost the Rwanda scheme
Spend more money on defence spending
End 'low-quality' degrees
Scandals:
Sexual misconduct
Partygate
Election betting
The mini-budget
The rising cost of living and the deteriorating NHS
Having 5 PMs in under 10 years
79
How did Labour deal with questions on the economy?
(2024 policy/manifesto)
The economy was a driving factor in the Labour manifesto, focusing on 'wealth creation’
Labour sells itself as the party of wealth creation, with the aim to improve standards of living and reducing inflation
However, this went along side their plans to raise £8bn by raising taxes and clamping down on tax avoidance, paired with introducing a windfall tax
They answered questions effectively, boosting a negative campaign after how much the Conservative party crashed the economy
80
What key messages did Sunak and the Conservatives push and get wrong?
(2024 election campaign)
Lots of video ads and Tiktok promotion rather than the traditional posters
Wanted to 'stick to the plan', why risk change after working for 14 years
Emphasising inflation decrease, Rwanda and border security
Conservatives aimed campaigning at saving as many Tory seats as possible, rather than winning more
Traditional Tory voters are over 50, less likely to use social media so more emphasis on leaflets
Recent failures of economic and immigration policy meant they couldn’t campaign on those points which left them with a weak campaign
81
What key messages did Labour push effectively?
(election campaign 2024)
Change will occur, away from Tory division and chaos
NHS improvement and change
Build new housing (look to younger voters)- 300,000 a year
Spent £1.5M on ads, Conservatives spent £115,000
Improve living standards for working people
40,000 more NHS appointments and operations
Labour spent £900,000 on social media campaign aimed at promoting candidates' names right when election was announced
Focused on their own policies and candidate profiles in their campaigning
Use of social media e.g. TikTok
82
Why did the socio-economic context of 2024 not work in the Conservatives’ favour? (2024 wider socioeconomic)
Truss Mini budget, lack of foreseeable prosperity (historically economically competent)
Conservative voters were being targeted by Reform
Conservatives seemed out of touch
Been in for 14 years, people wanted change
Anti democratic, lots of leaders that were unelected by a general election
83
Did Labour successfully tap into the zeitgeist of the time? (2024 wider socioeconomic)
People wanted change
Similar situation of 97 election where people wanted change after long Conservative rule
Tactically targeted seats (34% of vote but 412 seats)
People may have voted Tories out rather than Labour in
Other parties ineffectively played the FPTP system (Lib Dem- 72 seats, 12.2% vote, Reform- 5 seats, 14.3%)
84
What was Lib Dem's influence in the 2024 election?
Gaining 64 seats from 2019 and being only 49 seats behind the Conservative party.
- may start to indicate a trend in a multiparty system + a rise in tactical voting As well as this, the Lib Dems highlighted flaws in the FPTP system, winning a relatively small vote share, 12.2% and yet a staggering 72 seats.
85
What was SNPs influence in the 2024 election?
Much of Scotland was lost to Labour, with the SNP loosing 39 seats and only getting 2.5% of the vote share, this election saw massive changes in Scotland.
86
What was the Green Party influence in the 2024 election?
Green UK won a greater percentage share, going up 4% in vote share to 6.7%. 1% of that vote share was from Conservative and 3% from Labour. This resulted in Green winning 4 seats, 3 more than 2019. Green is still a relatively insignificant party
87
What was Reform UKs influence on the 2024 election?
Reform was not in the 2019 election, however a near identical party, the 'Brexit' party was in the running. Reform managed to get 5 seats this election, and 14.3% of the vote share. This shows a rise in people, especially young people moving to the right and how often the electorate pays the most attention to a charismatic leader, such as Farage.
88
What was the determining factor for election success in 1997?
party leadership completely the determining factor
89
What was the determining factor for election success in 1983?
party leadership was partly the determining factor as Labour leadership was poor and weak so they lost + Thatcher was strong post Falklands
90
What was the determining factor for election success in 2019?
Brexit + leaders responding to it was the determining factor
91
What was the determining factor for election success in 2024?
Conservative party was failing, they lost the election as they couldn't campaign on leadership or party merits, and Labour focused on change. 3rd party influence was more to do with tactical campaigning and stronger leaders like Farage.
92
Is party leadership the most important factor in determining elections?
Overall, party leadership is a major factor in determining elections as strong campaigning through leaders like Blair and Thatcher, who inspired spotlight that began to shine more on the leader of a party, therefore making it a prominent factor in the way that people choose who to vote for. Although there are elections like the 2024 election which suggest that it is not all about leadership, but instead party image, usually party image is heavily influenced by the leaders at the time, which was the case in the 1983, 1997 and 2019 elections. Therefore it suggests that party leadership is the most important factor as it is only not, when anomaly zeitgeists tend to focus on other current affair or party image issues, which doesn't happen for the most part and is usually influenced by party leadership anyways.
93
What factors affect voting choice?
- Policies presented in party manifestos
- Key issues presented during the campaign
- How parties have performed in office
- The leader and whether they are suitable to be PM
- The image and reputation of the party
Tactical voting to block an unpopular party
94
Who has a mandate?
successful party following an election claims it has authority (mandate) to implement manifesto promises and also general permission to govern as new issues arise
95
What does a manifesto do?
Gives clear set of issues and policies that the government will be committed to pursuing
- Attempt to convince voters that it is in their interest to vote that specific party
Deliver on manifesto commitments, party can claim to deliver on what they promised to and therefore appeal to valence voting
96
How does a manifesto link to a mandate?
Manifestos help establish doctrine of mandate. Central to relationship between electorate, parties and govt- represents the consent of the people, allows political party to do what they feel is necessary if elected to govt
When a party wins election forms govt, it has mandate to carry out all policy commitments in election manifesto
97
What was the 2019 Labour manifesto like?
(extremely specific)
- Abolish tuition fees
- Increase minimum wage to £10 an hour for everyone over 16 within a year
- Abolish charitable status of Private schools
98
What was the 2019 Conservative manifesto like?
- Increase number of nurses by 50,000
Guarantee that pensions will increase by 2.5% each year
99
What is the significance of a Mandate doctrine?
- Electors feel confident, understand policies they are consenting to when voting (assumes they have read and understood party manifesto)
- Strengthens govt, winning party gains legitimacy for its policies
- Parliament can call govt to account for straying from electoral mandate
- Gives electors opportunity to judge performance of govt for next election- 'How successful was govt when delivering its mandate?'
- All MPs from winning party are 'bound in' by mandate- voters vote for party manifesto rather than individual + party leaders maintain discipline amongst MPs
100
What are problems with a Mandate doctrine?
- Depends upon single party winning election. Coalition makes mandate unclear ie 2010. Minority government cannot legitimately claim a mandate ie June 2017 election
- Voters who have opted for 1 party may not agree with all manifesto policies, but mandate doctrine assumes they consent to whole manifesto
- Circumstances change post party taking power- have to amend or abandon some policies ie Lib Dems 2010 abandoning manifesto commitment to abolish uni tuition fees to form coalition
- Some manifesto commitments are vague and open to interpretation, hard to call govt to account
101
Who do people vote for in a General Election?
people vote for a party, future PM and an MP
102
What do people consider about a party leader?
- Image + qualities of party leaders
103
What are examples of party leadership images?
2015 GE: David Cameron has more positive image than Ed Miliband
1997 GE: Tony Blair began 1997 with very positive image, won 2 more elections, by 2007 image was so tarnished so Labour Party replaced him with Brown. Brown had poor image due to negative media and indecisive reputation, contributing to Labour defeat in 2010
104
What are important leadership qualities?
- Record in office
- Compassion
- Decisiveness
- Apparent honesty and sincerity
- Strong leadership
- Clear vision
Communication skills
105
When has media portrayal of party leaders not been vital to an election outcome?
- 1979 GE, James Callaghan led in polls by 20% but lost election
2010 GE, Nick Clegg (lib dem) was most popular post impressive TV debates, but party vote share fell by 1% + lost 5 seats
106
What is Evidence that party leaders + satisfaction/dissatisfaction opinion polls do swing election?
2019 ELECTION
- Boris Johnson: 39% satisfied, 40% dissatisfied. Net satisfaction = -1
- Jeremy Corbyn: 20% satisfied, 58% dissatisfied. Net satisfaction= -38
Boris Johnson polled best out of all leaders, won the election with large majority
Corbyn polled worse, Labour suffered worst defeat since 1983
107
Why did people not vote Farage in 2019 despite him polling well to the public?
Brexit party tied to his image but issue of Brexit meant people voted for Conservatives rather than by Leader and to Farage (trumped by issue)
108
How did Lib Dem's and SNP fare in the 2019 election despite their leaders not polling well?
Lib Dem and SNP leaders were negatively regarded, but their parties did well (people voted based on party rather than leader)
109
How can the changing reputation of a party leader affect election outcome + voting behaviour? (role of party leader)
Corbyn 2017: started campaign as underdog, but helped by May performing poorly in campaign, creating negative media image.
- Corbyn 2019: Politics more concerned by Brexit, Corbyn liked to avoid the topic, missed the Zeitgeist of the time
110
What is Tactical voting?
Those who usually support parties that would then mean their vote is considered to be 'wasted' abandon their first party preference and vote for a party that does have a chance of winning in their constituency.
- Try to influence final outcome, blocking a less favoured party
111
What are examples of tactical voting?
- Labour supporters voting Conservative to keep UKIP out in a close UKIP-Cons contest
- Green supporters voting Labour to keep Cons out of Lab-Cons contest
- Labour supporters voting Conservative to keep SNP out of SNP-Cons contest
- Conservative supporter in Scotland voting Labour to keep SNP out of SNP-Lab contest
- Plaid Cymru supporters in Wales voting Lib Dem to keep Cons out in Cons- Lib Deb contest
112
How has tactical voting affected elections?
2015 GE- estimated 77 constituencies impacted by tactical voting
2010 GE- up to 10% voters chose to vote for 2nd choice candidates (high amongst Lib Dem 16%)
113
What is the role of social media in influencing voting behaviour?
left wing tendency to 'keep Conservatives out'
- Websites created to help people tactically vote in their constituencies
114
What is evidence tactical voting doesn't work?
SNP 2015, tried effort to keep the, out, but they won big
115
What is evidence tactical voting does work?
Lib Dem 2015, lost support. Conservatives gained support as played on fears of Labour SNP alliance + to keep Ed Miliband out
116
What is media influence on elections split up into?
Newspapers
TV
Social Media
117
How have newspapers influenced trust in one leader?
Ie 'Crisis, what crisis?'
- 74% of Daily Mail readers voted Tory 2017 (right wing bias in the paper)
1997- Sun switched from Conservative to Labour, so did rest of Murdoch papers
2010- Sun switches from Lab to Cons,
2024- Sun and Times switch from Cons to Lab
118
How have newspapers become less influential?
People don't read newspapers as much, therefore have become less influential
41% sun readers didn't vote Tory despite the paper being right wing
119
What evidence shows press hostility doesn't always work?
2017 anti Labour message but Labour did very well in the election (hung parliament)
120
Why is it hard to prove newspapers shape or reflect reader's views?
Press don't like backing a loser, so give their support later on and therefore not swinging voters
121
How is the BBC less 'influential'?
unbiased, gives parties similar air time therefore less influence
122
How can it be argued that the press doesn't influence voters?
voters respond to what they see in the valence issues of the party, press just reflects the prevailing feeling at the time.
123
How did the Press influence the 1992 election?
1992 GE- Conservatives won surprise victory after most predicted a Labour win
- The Sun cover: 'If Kinnock wins will the last person to leave Britan turn out the lights'
Post election results- the Sun took credit for the switch, but may not have been the turning point for voters
124
How does the Press have more freedom than TV and radio?
No regulation for political bias unlike for TV and radio (ie BBC is neutral)
125
What is the press' political bias?
influences by ownership + beliefs of readership
Now, more papers support Conservatives + 2 largest papers (Sun + Daily Mail) support Conservatives-> reflects owner's beliefs
126
Does the press' political bias actually influence its readers?
Public believes press influences them, but research suggests it doesn't as newspapers tend to reflect typical political views of their readers rather than leading them to believe in them.
- Reinforce political attitudes
No strong evidence they can change them#
127
What evidence shows the press doesn't influence voters and therefore impact elections/is becoming a weaker force in impacting elections?
2017 GE- 1 paper supported Labour, but Corbyn led Labour party to receive 40% of the vote
128
What does TV influence show the electorate?
Gives the public an insight to how the leader is and can come across
129
What are examples of TV influence creating images for party leaders?
Ed Miliband stumbling off stage in front of live audience 2015- poor image
2010 debate - Nick Clegg strong showing in tv debates-> led to Clegg mania, led to result of hung parliament
2019- lots of stunts for Johnson for positive TV image
130
What suggests that TV debates are not important in influencing election outcomes?
Do not change much, not important in GE culture
Most TV debates end in draw- ie 2 2019 TV debates Johnson + Corbyn
2024- lack of influence of TV debate winners
Other factors matter more ie Media influence
131
What has influences previous elections, instead of TV debates?
1992 + 2019 elections- economic voting, rather than TV
2015- Labour blamed for credit crunch, main issue of economy driving the election
Brexit + getting it done- 2019, Tory 80 seat majority
132
Why is TV limited in influence compared to other media factors?
All broadcasters in UK are law bound to remain neutral + offer balanced reporting of election and referendum campaigns- therefore no intention of -influencing voting behaviour
- Sometimes BBC accused of left wing bias, but nothing has been proved
133
Despite being lawfully neutral, why is TV important in influencing voters?
TV + radio remains main sources of information for UK voters for election campaigns
134
Who holds TV debates?
previously held by BBC, ITV, Sky, Channel 4. Overseen by Electoral Commission
135
What are examples of TV debates and their impacts?
2010 debates- Nick Clegg impressive performance but still led to decline in Lib Dem vote share
2015 debate- Cameron refused to partake, polls showed Miliband narrowly won, even over respected Sturgeon. But Miliband still polled poorly in leadership + lost election he was expected to win
136
What do Parties expect will come from TV debates?
Parties use TV to get their message across, but don't expect to gain an advantage from it
137
How has right wing presence evolved online?
2015: UKIP online
2024: Reform on Tiktok more than all the left wing Labour politicians (ie Corbyn, Sultana)
138
How has Labour utilised social media?
Labour spent lots of social media 2024 GE
- Larger reach across more people rather than traditional print
139
How did social media aid political parties in the 2017 GE?
Use of HASHTAGS- 2017 Youthquake
140
How does Social media aid parties to create good images?
Provides convenient way to get around hostile press
- Corbyn vilification in print maybe wasn't as important due to the impact of his positive image online
141
How did Reform use social media in the 2024 GE?
Farage used tiktok to target young men to vote for Reform 2024
142
How did the Tories use social media in the 2019 GE?
Tories used social media to target specific voters in swing seats ie Milton Keynes
143
What was the 2010 election dubbed in reference to social media?
'the mumsnet election'
144
Does social media actually have an impact on voting behaviour?
Social media reflects views, doesn't change people's minds
- Only the tool parties use to target demographic groups ie Labour target the younger voters with social media
Amplification of existing valence issues
145
What do parties use social media for?
Used by parties to communicate with public + listen to public opinion
146
What is bad about social media use for parties compared to other media outlets?
Open medium, so hard for any one party to gain any special advantage (unlike Press or TV)
147
What is an advantage of social media for political parties compared to other media outlets?
However large resource access (ie ads, twitter bots) can be helpful to influence outcome
148
What influence does social media have on other types of media and mainstream political debate
Broadcast media and press media report on debates + issues that have been raised on social media (also subject to less scrutiny and accountability), then these ideas become established in mainstream political debate + help influence political opinions and choices
149
Who does social media give a platform to?
Social media provides platform for groups with vested interests to use to influence political debate
150
What are the dangers of social media?
- Development of fake news + conspiracy theories ie 5G phone masts causing harm, avoiding vaccines
People believe these ideas, allowing them to come into mainstream politics and misinform people, therefore making it an untrustworthy and unreliable source
151
Evaluate the view that media influence is the most important factor in determining the outcome of UK general elections
Overall, media influence is an important factor in determining the outcome of UK general elections, as it is a source of information for people to learn from, gain understanding of the issues of the time and how each party is equipped to combat this. On top of this, media such as newspapers have the ability to remain unbiased and therefore gives people guidance, similarly to social media. However, people are reading newspapers less and less, therefore their impact is diminishing, and social media is such an open outlet that it is hard to distinguish what is real and what is fake news, therefore hard to trust it as a source. As TV is unbiased and neutral, it means that overall, media gives voters who engage with it the political material to be able to make their own decision on who they should vote for, and instead factors such as the leaders running in the election, or the party that has the most media coverage are more important, as media is only the tool that allows them to judge the leaders and party as the future government. Without the leaders, parties and reputations themselves, there would be no use for the media, and therefore Media influence is not the most important factor in determining the outcome of UK general elections.
152
How are public opinion polls indirectly responsible for voter suppression or how likely people are to turn out to vote
- People felt Tories wouldn't win so disheartened
- felt there was no need to vote Labour as they would win so big anyways
- regional level: tactically voted as a result of polls
Floating voters impacted heavily by such a broadcasted topic
153
How do public opinion polls crowd out policy discussion and the election campaign
-> 2024 has more polls commissioned and published than any other campaign, journalists asked about the polls
154
What is wrong with using public opinion polls as a source of information?
Misleading source of information (ie may not be correct)
155
Why should public opinion polls be banned in England?
Other countries have banned opinion polls during elections due to its ability to skew results (ie France, Canada and Mexico)
156
What regulation is on opinion polls?
Lack of statutory guidance and regulation
- People Act 1983 prohibits releasing poll results conducted the day of elections whilst voting is occurring
40+ years old, doesn't take into account polling online + its impact
157
What would be an issue of banning public opinion polls?
- Could lead to unregulated polls which are less reliable and can misinform people further
158
What are arguments against banning opinion polls?
- May not actually make as much of a difference that people think they do
- The problem with opinion polls are the failures of sampling methodology, not the polls themselves
Properly regulated polls have become increasingly accurate since 2015
Why shouldn't voters be influences by opinion polls?
Source of using data to help inform their voting decision
Demand for polls won't go away as so many stakeholders find them useful
- Political parties use figures to adapt messages and target voters
