Weapons of Mass Destruction

Question 1

What is the history of WMD proliferation & the effect of globalization on this?

Answer 1

• technological spread since 1945
• globalization: difficult to monitor proliferation, and easier to access WMDs
• WMDs have ranging effects, proliferation history and measures used by states

Question 2

What is the history of chemical and biological weapons

Answer 2

• sporadic use since WW1
• but limited spread and use among states
• multilateral efforts -> successful
• norms = reputational costs
• not well suited for battlefield use
• today: only a non-state actor problem?
• or: “poor man’s WMD” -> Assad’s use in Syrian civil war

Question 3

What is the history of nuclear weapons

Answer 3

• relationships between countries -> nuclear weapons proliferation (materials distribution, espionnage, intended transfer, leak) - a chain reaction
• timeline of nuclear states: US (1945) -> USSR (1949) -> U.K. & Canada -> France -> China -> Israel -> India -> South Africa -> Pakistan -> Iraq…..
• some abandoned nuclear programmes: South africa, Iraq, Libya
• aspiring states which claim do not have but could

Question 4

What is the current nuclear weapons situation?

Answer 4

• potential weapons states (Japan)
• 4 countries not a part of NPT treaty
• 9 nuclear weapons states with assymetrical arsenals, different legal statuses and varying motives

Question 5

What are the two types of nuclear weapons proliferation

Answer 5

horizontal (more actors) vs vertical (more weapons or more developed per actor)

Question 6

What are the reasons for proliferation of nuclear weapons?

Answer 6

1. security dilemna (one has it, i must have it)
2. international prestige/status (get a seat at the table)
3. domestic prestige (political survival, evidence of leadership)
   - Isreal all of the above

Question 7

What are the consequences of nuclear proliferation

Answer 7

1. Instability
2. Stability
3. Nuclear Taboo

Question 8

What does the instability consequence of NW entail?

Answer 8

Instability

• “imperfect human beings” (Sagan)
• NUTS
• pessimists
• weak command, control mechanisms and accidents
• unstable post Cold War 2nd phase of proliferation
• varying nuclear postures (not always rational)

Question 9

What does the stability consequence of NW entail?

Answer 9

Stability

• nuclear (existential) deterrence
• “more may be better” (Waltz)
• MAD
• optimists

Question 10

What is the Nuclear Taboo

Answer 10

Alternative

• Tannenwald
• norms and demonstrative effects of Japan
• tradition of non-use because of reputational costs

Question 11

What is the weapons of mass destruction deterrence theory

Answer 11

deterrence vs compellence
coercive diplomacy
deterrence: 
-clearly threatening punishment
-credible signaling
-if threat must be carried out = failed
-not using
compellence:
-persuade opponent to give up something
-Cuba 1962: USSR withdrew warheads in Cuba due to US threats
Obama's red line to syria (2013): deterrence or compellence? (chemical weapons)
Iraq 1990: gradual turning of the screw

Question 12

What are the limitations of the nuclear deterrence theory?

Answer 12

1. stability-instability paradox (nuclear deterrence -> lower levels of violence & crisis provoking behaviour due to nuclear assurance) (no nuclear wars but more non-nuclear wars?)
2. credible signals? (failure to convince of risks?)
3. plans for use of NWs or missile defense? (impact on security dilemma, NWs that are more discriminatory)

Question 13

What are the ways of tackling proliferation?

Answer 13

Non-proliferation (regime, norms, successful) vs counter-proliferation (active attempts taken by states to disrupt proliferation networks)

Question 14

What are ways of tackling proliferation based on the theories of IR?

Answer 14

Realism:
-security umbrella (US protection to non NWs)
-extended deterrence, alliance commitment (NATO)
Liberalism:
-disarmament, arms control, export control
-treaty commitments
-incentive-based approaches (abandon nuclear weapons program = support for civilian nuclear programs (South Africa, Libya)
Constructivism:
-norm entrepreneurs (e.g. Global Zero)
-advocacy and information campaigns

Question 15

Future Directions of WMDs

Answer 15

• the role of non-state actors? Is it likely for them to acquire WMDs? WMD terrorism? hybrid warfare?
• scarcity of security and renewed proliferation? US protection scarcity? less US management of nuclear crises?
• Global Zero ambitious:
  
  • verification possible of destroyed weapons and expertise?
  • instability (deterrence = peace)
  • shift from disarmament to limiting stockpiles of weapons and systems

Question 16

What is the difference between constitutive, explanatory and normative theories?

Answer 16

constitutive = how the emerge and shape..
explanatory = why they act a certain way
normative = how states should act