Week 7 Lecture I

Question 1

transport vs mobility

Answer 1

"The means by which we are
mobile"
Focus on the process of
moving people and goods
Deeply interrelated modes of
transport

“The movement of people and
goods”
Focus on accessibility

Question 2

mobility as a service

Answer 2

“The integration of various modes of transport along with information
and payment functions into a single mobility service

Question 3

There is also much uncertainty:

Answer 3

how demand for mobility will change between now and 2040; how the public and businesses will react to technological shifts; and exactly what our future transport system will look like.

Question 4

Changes in the nature of working and shopping, new technologies and behaviours – such as

Answer 4

automation, vehicle electrification and the sharing economy – are already having an impact on how the system functions, while the intersection of the physical and digital realms is changing how transport is planned and used.

Question 5

Transport is more than just travel

Answer 5

It connects people; it provides access to jobs, communities and goods; it delivers vital social services.

Question 6

Overall, we are currently travelling less at an individual level, although population growth means the total distance travelled is increasing.

Answer 6

The reasons behind this decline in individual travel are complex, but broader social factors, such as the changing nature of work, having families later and attending university, have all had an impact.

For individuals, affordability, accessibility, safety, reliability and habit are all important factors

Question 7

The economic burden of transport to individuals is magnified in places with poorer access to, and higher costs of, public transport.

Answer 7

These are both influenced by where people live. For example, it is traditionally challenging to provide good transport services to low-density suburban areas, but these are where the poorest people are increasingly likely to live.

Their lifestyle choice – where they live – therefore influences their travel behaviour

Question 8

travel behaviour and location

Answer 8

Travel behaviour also varies considerably by location. This report reflects on some solutions that might usefully be considered in urban, suburban and rural locations, drawing on the potential offered by new technologies and business model

Question 9

Ageing population:

Answer 9

Wider social changes, such as a growing and ageing population in the UK, overlay and interact with mobility, leading to further complexity. For example, active travel (walking and cycling) tends to decrease with age, while car use increases. This combines with the challenge of keeping the older population healthy and living independently for longer. Car reliance is compounded by the fact that the population is ageing more rapidly in rural areas, where access to services, including public transport, is limited. This restriction on travel choices has implications for well-being and social capital.

Question 10

Freight

Answer 10

Freight is an essential part of the transport system, but often overlooked in land-use planning. Decisions tend to be shaped by cost and accessibility, with a premium placed on flexibility – hence the reliance on road freight, which is the most flexible, in terms of route and timing. There are fewer opportunities for government intervention in this sector, which is largely privately owned, compared with passenger transport (which is under greater public control). However, government does still have a considerable impact on freight, with environmental legislation, pricing and taxation of road and rail strongly influencing its use and relative popularity.

Question 11

To explore the most important areas of uncertainty this study developed four scenarios.

Answer 11

Trends Unmodified illustrates a world where only incremental, mostly reactive, change occurs; this scenario highlights the risks of inaction.

By contrast, Technology Unleashed considers a future where technology is developed and delivered in a highly permissive environment.

Individual Freedoms outlines a future in which this environment is tightly constrained due to increasing public concerns over companies’ handling of their private data.

Lastly, Greener Communities suggests a future where change is geared towards beneficial social and environmental outcomes.

Question 12

Consider transport as a system, rather than loosely connected modes.

Answer 12

This will maximise the delivery of government goals and aligns with the strategy to support the achievement of integrated outcomes; it will also bring wider social benefits (e.g. employment, health, access to services). Aligning policy levers for intervention can improve outcomes, deliver value for money and minimise the burden of a complex governance landscape. The recent emergence of more powerful data tools creates an opportunity to examine the system as a whole.

Question 13

Consider the wider objectives that the transport system can help to achieve.

Answer 13

The transport system is greater than the sum of its parts; it is not just a means of travel, but a critical enabler for the economy and society. Health and well-being, social inclusion, job opportunities, trade, access to services, sustainable places can all be harnessed and achieved through careful design and planning of the transport system. Trade-offs will need to be addressed and this requires broad collaboration across government. It also requires value judgements as to which outcomes are more desirable and, as such, should receive greater weight.

Question 14

Outline a clear, long-term national vision and set goals that are mindful of varying local priorities.

Answer 14

This will allow coming trends and modes to be shaped rather than responded to. Infrastructure decisions taken now have long-lasting effects and there are choices and trade-offs, but there should be a focus on making best use of the whole system.

Question 15

Understand that geography is key to ensuring outcomes are practical at local and regional levels.

Answer 15

Different places exhibit vastly different travel behaviour; even similar-sized towns can have highly contrasting travel behaviours and needs. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to transport planning; each place needs a tailored approach to ensure its challenges are adequately addressed. Decentralised decision-making should enable opportunities that exist across our towns, cities and rural areas to be seized, provided that layers of funding, operation and strategies are fully integrated. The different approaches in each region could be facilitated by simplification of a historically complex governance system.

Question 16

Examine the specific challenges facing rural areas.

Answer 16

Given the low population density (and hence low profitability) of rural areas, it is a challenge for the market to supply practical transport solutions. The ageing of rural populations poses further difficulties, and the lack of infrastructure in many rural regions reduces the opportunities to switch modes. However, new developments create an opportunity to provide healthy, sustainable transport to elderly and isolated groups. New technologies can improve accessibility and mobility for less mobile and disabled users (e.g. autonomous vehicles), raising the question: how can government respond to these challenges equitably?

Question 17

Integrate passenger transport with freight, alongside housing priorities, when making planning decisions.

Answer 17

Policy-makers can minimise future uncertainties by planning for the impacts of policies designed to meet multiple objectives for the transport system, working in partnership with the privately-owned freight sector. There are opportunities for freight, be they around partnerships for efficiency or options for greater decarbonisation. Central and local authorities can lead by example, by: requiring their procurement and deliveries to use freight consolidation facilities; supporting the roll-out of connected infrastructure; and connecting infrastructure between modes. Reconfiguring the ways in which space is used is also important: new transport planning must be integrated with decisions about wider urban infrastructure.

Question 18

Use a scenarios approach to explore different futures, identify opportunities and help mitigate the unintended consequences of new transport modes, technologies and/or trends.

Answer 18

This can make policies more resilient and help to facilitate decisions about long-term transport infrastructure, for example by avoiding investments that become obsolete. Solutions must increasingly be flexible, and policies may be tested against several alternative future scenarios.

Question 19

Use both hard and soft measures to achieve the scale of change needed.

Answer 19

As most travel behaviour is habitual, understanding what users want, and how they make decisions when faced with incentives, is critical. Powerful visualisation tools and social technologies could be used to understand the impact of, and to shape behaviour. Further research and regional data collection to understand travel behaviour at local scales should be used to inform local policies.

Question 20

Consider the impact of future technologies on revenues and costs. This is important, given the likely scale and pace of change.

Answer 20

With current policies, the shift to electric vehicles decreases revenue from fuel duty, and automation may decrease parking charges. Policy choices such as road pricing may need to be considered among other demand-side interventions. Technology can also significantly reduce operational and infrastructure costs.

Question 21

Consider prioritising walking and cycling when allocating land use for transport to promote wider social benefits.

Answer 21

Such an approach can change transport behaviour, improve people’s health, reduce levels of physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour, and reduce air pollution and congestion. Effective ways to increase walking and cycling are well known internationally; for example, Copenhagen has markedly increased cycling over the last 20 years. Overall, this entails a mixture of investment in hard infrastructure (e.g. dedicated separate cycle networks) and softer measures.

Question 22

Mobility

Answer 22

the movement of people and goods – is generally not an end in itself. Its value lies in the accessibility it provides and how this contributes to the functioning and quality of people’s lives, as individuals and as a society.

Mobility is vital to the efficient movement of people and goods that underpins our economy.

Mobility is essential for social cohesion, widening people’s opportunities and improving their health and well-being.

It has transformed society, the structure and locations of towns and services, and has also been an important contributor to individual choice; the car added to women’s emancipation, for example

Nevertheless, inequalities remain in people’s mobility. The lack of mobility for some, and the burden it places on others (e.g. those who have to spend a high proportion of their income on transport), are persistent issues. These reduce opportunities such as access to employment and essential services. Young people, older people and those living in rural areas are currently underserved by the transport system in many regions.

Question 23

Similarly, the transport system is far more than just

Answer 23

our pavements, roads, railways, ports and airports, and the various vehicles using them. Rather, this system enables organisations and companies to do business, and influences how people live their lives.

Transport – the means by which we are mobile – comes in various modes. These include walking, cycling, cars, railways, ships and aeroplanes. These are all deeply interrelated: the increasing use of one often leads to a reduction in another

In other cases, the relationship has been complementary. Rail freight stimulated road transport, for example to and from railheads. Synergies in the technological development of internal combustion engines and aviation during World War II helped drive transport-related industries in the post-war period

Multi-modal travel has been a persistent feature of mobility and, even today, many journeys to work combine a number of different modes, often including walking.

Question 24

transport needs to be considered as a

Answer 24

holistic system, not as sequential or separate elements

Question 25

Public concern over the health impacts of transport

Answer 25

are long-standing. From the 1970s, there have been concerns about lead emissions from petrol and their harmful effects on children (Gunn, 2018a). Other negative health effects from transport pollution include lung disease, cancer, asthma, heart disease, obesity and dementia

Question 26

proportion of km driven by different modes of transport

Answer 26

1.2. picture

Question 27

Governance of the transport system

Answer 27

There are diverse institutional arrangements in place across the UK transport system. For historical reasons, there is no single approach that applies across the whole system. This complicates cross-system governance (Section 2.1).

Reforms of sub-national governance processes have added further layers of complexity to decision-making. This makes the integration of policy, strategy and funding across different institutions and transport modes even more challenging (Section 2.2).

A clear vision, agreed goals, a network of stakeholders and long-term funding make it easier to deliver complex transport projects. Governance is key to understanding the different incentives within the system. The incentives faced by users and providers are critical, as they shape the economic, social and environmental outcomes (Section 2.2.1).

Question 28

Questions to consider: (governance)

Answer 28

Discussions around whether to centralise or decentralise transport governance will broadly reflect the different views of local, sub-national and national governments, and their differing needs and priorities

s. In a complex system, there will always be tensions among the component parts about the correct balance, for example which modes should take precedence, or how strongly local, regional or national governments should shape transport demand.

Question 29

The planning system must also balance potential conflicts

Answer 29

and negative effects between local, regional and national demands and politics (Cullingworth et al., 2014). Ideally, this should be done in partnership and with a focus on sustainable transport.

Question 30

where is freight moved?

Answer 30

Nearly 90% of freight is still moved by road, and the volume is growing. Freight and logistics are both important economically in the UK, and the flexibility of road freight makes it an attractive option for these sectors

Question 31

Maritime freight remains critical to the economy:

Answer 31

96% of goods still arrive through the UK’s ports. In the future, the UK will require even greater automation and digital connectivity to ensure the efficient movement of goods, both through ports and on to the connecting infrastructure

Question 32

typical American car - time use & energy flow

Answer 32

3.2.

Question 33

The last mile of freight

Answer 33

the movement of goods from a transport hub to its final destination (usually small urban retailers or consumers) – is labour intensive, accounting for 30-50% of supply chain costs; it also generates the most CO2 per tonne moved

This is because, compared with long-haul and regional freight, last-mile delivery involves smaller loads, more stops and tighter time windows, resulting in complex routing and incomplete loading of vehicles. These add to the costs and CO2 emissions per tonne.

But last-mile delivery is becoming increasingly important, not least because the demand for home deliveries is rising and customers are putting pressure on the freight industry to deliver goods more quickly

and Allen, 2018). Overall, consumers’ demands for faster, more frequent and more precisely timed deliveries – all at ever lower costs – will have environmental and economic consequences

Question 34

the choice of mode for transporting (goods) depends on numerous factors

Answer 34

(e.g. cost, time, flexibility, reliability and capacity), rail is often the preferred choice for large-scale, regular movements of freight over long distances.

At the top of this hierarchy, long-term choices relate to (among other factors) family size, career and leisure activities. Next come medium-term choices about location, such as where to live and work. Short-term choices are those made on a day-to-day basis. It is the long- and medium-term choices that influence our mobility decisions. A typical chain of causality goes as follows: the (long-term) choice to have several children will probably result in the (medium-term) choice to live in a suburb, where houses have bigger gardens; living in a suburb in turn will probably result in owning a car – hence, car use becomes habitual.

4.4.

Question 35

Chapter 3 Policy implications

Answer 35

Out to 2040 a new combination of self-driving private-hire vehicles, taxis and demand-responsive transport could represent the future of public transport on the UK’s roads.

An improved understanding of the exact role of vans and LCVs – the largest-growing traffic segment – will be important in shaping traffic behaviour and mitigating environmental impacts.

There are, at present, inherent uncertainties and difficulties in forecasting future transport demand, due to the degree of technological change taking place, both inside and outside the transport sector.

Policy-makers should consider using scenario-based approaches, including preferred scenarios (i.e. a national vision) to enable them to identify and establish indicators and warnings for further evidence of potential challenges, such as rail saturation or ‘peak car’ use.

Question 36

People are making fewer trips and travelling less per person compared to 20 years ago

Answer 36

However, population growth means that the total distance travelled in the UK each year has increased

Question 37

Walking has declined over the past 20 years,

Answer 37

while cycling trips per person have remained broadly stable. Both modes of transport suffer from latent demand: people walk and cycle more when better infrastructure is available

Question 38

Simultaneous changes in technology, society and transport have markedly affected transport behaviour

Answer 38

The changing nature and location of work, land use, housing and online retail growth have transformed transport behaviour.

Question 39

People and companies make transport decisions as part of wider choices

Answer 39

accessibility, lifestyle and connectivity – and are strongly influenced by external changes in society. Practical factors – such as the built environment, location, cost, journey times, and availability of infrastructure – currently dominate decision-making and this will likely continue to 2040

Question 40

Usually, people do not travel for the sake of it

Answer 40

but because they need to do something at the destination: to work, to shop, to visit friends and family, or a leisure activity.

Question 41

Car dependence has grown partly because the necessary infrastructure has improved,

Answer 41

but also as it is seen as a ‘superior’ or ‘easier’ mode of travel. Car use is habitual for many and changing behaviour will require both soft and hard incentives

This behaviour is shaped and constrained by many factors: location, connectivity, costs, age, congestion, ability to travel and available transport options. Past experiences and social norms also influence people’s mobility.

Question 42

Attitudes towards ownership are changing. Younger people, particularly the under-30s,

Answer 42

often choose usership over ownership. This is driving the growth of the sharing economy.

Ride/car-sharing is a compromise that most people are reluctant to make, having to overcome barriers of trust, awkwardness, timing and cost. Without clear shifts in these norms, or a large price differential between individual and shared modes of transport, ride/car-sharing will probably remain a minority pursuit

Question 43

when do people choose to walk/bike?

Answer 43

On the other hand, people walk more where there are greater street densities (e.g. in urban areas), proximity to amenities and diverse land uses (e.g. restaurants, shops, schools, offices, parking)

Cycling numbers are strongly dependent on having a cycling infrastructure that is separate from other vehicles (e.g. designated cycleways) and there is large latent demand for cycling: more people would cycle if conditions were improved, so investment in infrastructure often sharply increases the number of people cycling.

Question 44

choices and where do people live

Answer 44

4.3.

Question 45

people may also want a transport system that can help

Answer 45

maintain their health, improve community cohesion and avoid social severance. For example, residents of streets with more traffic have fewer friends and acquaintances on the same street than people living on quieter streets (Hart and Parkhurst, 2011). Busy infrastructure routes, such as railways and roads, can also sever communities. Furthermore, many people want their transport system to contribute towards ‘green’ goals, although attitudes differ as to how green they wish it to be

Question 46

soft and hard factors to encourage a modal shift

Answer 46

4.1. and 4.2.

Question 47

there is huge potential for data, as a form of infrastructure and public good, to produce wider social benefits

Answer 47

These include improved real-time situational awareness and demand modelling; closer monitoring of users, infrastructure and vehicles such as onboard vehicle diagnostics in road, rail and shipping; and the ability to maintain transport infrastructure in a more effective, predictive way (i.e. prevention of problems rather than repair).

The use of digital innovations to manage assets more effectively has grown in recent years. Specifically, the concept of a “digital twin” – digital copies of physical infrastructure used to simulate, test and respond to the system. Such virtual systems offer possibilities to plan, predict and manage a ssets using the vast amounts of data captured

Question 48

automation

Answer 48

As systems become more automated, there are further risks if their operating systems, software and defences are not kept up to date. Overall, developments in transport-related technology, systems and services could create a rapidly changing landscape for transport-related crime (Beecroft, forthcoming). There is therefore a need to minimise the cybersecurity threat to companies and individuals, with security measures built in to all new developments in transport connectivity and data.

Automation already exists in some transport sectors, to various degrees. However, there is considerable potential for this to be scaled up across the transport sector, bringing huge potential advantages, especially in terms of costs

Automation is technology that allows a process or procedure to be performed with minimum human assistance. It is not binary; rather, there is a spectrum of levels of automation that could be achieved, as Table 5.1 sets out.

Self-driving trains have 4-6% more room for passengers.

One attraction of self-driving trains is potential cost savings. Preautomation, each train needed a driver, so every extra train provided meant additional staff costs. Self-driving trains break the link between the frequency of train services and staff costs. If staff costs are lowered, fully autonomous trains can run more frequently with lower additional costs (Walker, 2010). The ratio of staff per asset (i.e. the proportion of staff relative to the total number of trains and stations) is 70% lower in unattended, autonomous train and station systems, compared with fully staffed systems. Even where stations but not trains are staffed, staff savings were still 30%.

Even if autonomous driving technologies could begin to penetrate new vehicle markets by the 2020s, public attitudes are likely to affect their adoption (Litman, 2018). A survey commissioned by the Department for Transport in 2017 showed that 49% of the public did not see any advantages to autonomous vehicles (Department for Transport, 2018n)

The most commonly cited concerns were fear of equipment or system failure, and cars failing to react to unexpected situations.

There are many potential gains from the rise of self-driving vehicles. They could add up to £2.1 billion gross value added to the UK economy by 2035, and support up to 47,000 jobs (Transport Systems Catapult, 2017). Advanced safety features, such as autonomous braking systems, could reduce road casualties by 30% by 2033 (McAuley et al., 2015). SMMT (2015) suggests a wider economic benefit of £51 billion per year by 2030 due to fewer accidents, improved productivity and increased trade.

Additional journeys by empty self-driving vehicles are predicted to be a key contributor to congestion at peak times, for example when empty vehicles leave town centres to return to their collection points. This could be mitigated by ride-sharing or increased use of active transport modes (e.g. cycling, walking) to complement vehicle travel.

Automation could also have negative impacts on those with the lowest incomes, who may be priced out of the early market and therefore miss out on potential advantages (Zmud et al., 2013). Yet some groups may benefit: if accessibly designed, they could facilitate mobility for the elderly, disabled or mobility impaired, prolonging their independence, providing better access to services and increasing social and economic inclusion.

Autonomy could make buses – or new, demand-responsive transport services – more commercially viable in rural regions, where it is often expensive to provide public transport. Driver costs currently make up a large proportion of the total cost of such services: 40% is spent on drivers, part of the 61% spent on labour in general (Warburton, 2015). Indeed, labour costs make up a large proportion of transport costs for all types of service: 40-50% for taxis and private-hire vehicles (Hara Associates, 2011; Centre for International Economics, 2014; Taxi Research Partners, 2015); 27% for HGVs (Apprise Consulting, 2016); and for trains, between 23-25% (Stagecoach, 2014) and 60% (Steer Davies Gleave, 2015).

Automation could reduce these costs, or eliminate them altogether. This would, of course, have widespread knock-on effects, notably on employment: in the UK, there are approximately 257,000 taxi and private-hire drivers, and 124,000 bus drivers (Transport Scotland, 2016; Department for Infrastructure, 2017; Department for Transport, 2017b); 318,700 HGV drivers (Department for Transport, 2016a); and 20,500 train drivers (ASLEF, 2018). Additionally, up to 950,000 jobs in the wider transport and storage industry are considered at risk from automation over the next 15 years (PwC, 2018). Government will need to consider how best to support these workers (i.e. through reskilling or retraining) from the disruption that automation could bring to the workforce.

Question 49

A range of emissions-reduction measures, both in vehicle development and in logistics, are becoming available.

Answer 49

Improvements in aerodynamics, tyres, lightweight materials, eco-driver training and dynamic route-planning can collectively lead to substantial reductions in the carbon emissions from fossilfuel vehicles.

Question 50

Narrow-diameter tunnelling

Answer 50

offers various possibilities for underground transport. This could be for light rail, trams, bus rapid transit or pipelines designed for either passengers or freight. Construction would alleviate surface congestion and avoid causing traffic jams in the way that building another road lane would. Smaller tunnel diameters will also reduce the cost of boring by three or four times. The concept of an underground logistics system is gaining some traction, with China developing and implementing transport pipelines that facilitate last-mile deliveries.

Question 51

delivery services

Answer 51

Additive manufacturing technologies, such as 3D printing, could also have an impact on the freight sector. However, views differ about their relative impact on freight miles (Mangan and McKinnon, 2018). On the one hand, ING (2017) estimate that widespread adoption of 3D printing will lead to a decrease of almost 25% in world trade by 2060. On the other hand, a report from the World Economic Forum argues that 3D printing will not have a significant impact on global trade (Lehmacher and Schwemmer, 2017).

Six-wheeled droids that can carry up to 10kg of cargo have been deployed in eight cities (Espinoza, 2018). Customers are notified on arrival and can unlock the compartment containing the delivery with a smartphone. However, droids need the customer to be at the destination to take the delivery, which is not the case for around 13% of deliveries (Cherrett, 2018).

Question 52

government involvement and issues

Answer 52

5.4.

Question 53

However, there are some general trends. The lower population density

Answer 53

(compared to urban conurbations) can mean that rail and light rail services are not economically viable, given the costs of building the necessary infrastructure (i.e. railways) and operational overheads. Bus transport often offers a lowercost option in such places, as it can use existing roads. It is especially attractive when it has designated road space (e.g. bus lanes) or its own prioritised route (bus rapid transit). Increasing bus services is often a more viable alternative than building new road or rail networks. However, if bus services to a town or small city decrease for any reason, the lack of alternative public transport options may reduce some people’s access to economic and social opportunities.

Question 54

Rural residents travel 50% further per year than urban residents.

Answer 54

Limited public transport and declining local services are major factors behind this relatively poor accessibility in rural areas, and help to explain the car-dependent behaviour often found (Scottish Government, 1998). This may also contribute to a greater desire to work from home or have a home-based business: 13% of people living in villages and remote dwellings mainly work from home, compared with 5% in urban areas (Office for National Statistics, 2011a).

Question 55

Smaller cities and towns are generally more compact than conurbations, which means

Answer 55

walking and cycling are practical ways of getting around. Consequently, e-bikes are likely to succeed here. Many journeys are short and, for city journeys, an e-bike will often be quicker than a car. E-bikes also increase the attractiveness of cycling in hilly areas. However, both soft and hard factors are needed to maximise this uptake, such as separate cycling infrastructure augmented by a campaign to promote cycling (see Chapter 4)

Question 56

Policy implications for the future

Answer 56

Across urban, peri-urban and rural areas, effective land-use planning is critical for integrating freight and passenger transport with housing and economic priorities, among others. Policy-makers need to plan buildings and infrastructure that allow for sustainable travel options, healthier lifestyles and smoother delivery of goods. Doing this at the start is cheaper than expensively retrofitting transport infrastructure to cope with future demand.

Rural areas present a significant challenge to transport planning, but also opportunities to provide healthy, sustainable transport for older people and isolated groups. For example, dedicated infrastructure for active modes, notably walking and cycling, improve health, reduce physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyles, change transport behaviours, and contribute to reducing air pollution and congestion.

To increase the uptake of cycling and walking in urban areas, investment in hard infrastructure (e.g. separate cycling or walking networks) and softer factors are both necessary. Internationally, some cities are already doing this well. The design of places and spaces that contribute to better health outcomes for citizens should be considered alongside new infrastructure investments, as laid out by Public Health England (2018).

Cleaner transport modes for freight deliveries in urban areas are available. For example, electric cargo bikes and urban consolidation centres can mitigate some of the environmental issues associated with the growing freight sector.

New service models such as Mobility-as-a-Service are likely to increase, especially in larger cities, and there is growing private sector interest in these. Going forward, it is important to maximise the benefits from new technologies and minimise the potential negative impacts, for example by levelling the playing field for operators and ensuring equitable service provision for users.

Common data standards between regions will ease the roll out of business models. This could improve data sharing, and ultimately support decision making.

Accessibility remains a key policy challenge in urban outskirts and suburban areas, despite the rise in new forms of mobility. Density and geography strongly dictate costs of provision, and potentially who and where will be left behind.