Week 7 Lecture II

Question 1

The transport sector plays an important role in global climate change mitigation strategies

Answer 1

as it currently accounts for about 23% of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Question 2

A package that achieves low-carbon transport and fosters sustainable development includes

Answer 2

avoided journeys through compact urban design and shifts to more efficient modes of transport, uptake of improved vehicle and engine performance technologies, low-carbon fuels, investments in related infrastructure, and changes in the built environment.

Question 3

Much mitigation potential can be exploited through

Answer 3

avoided journeys and modal shift resulting from behavioral change, use of improved vehicle and engine technologies, low-carbon fuels, improved infrastructure, and other changes to the built environment.

Question 4

Transport emissions can be reduced in three ways:

Answer 4

1. Shift to lower-emitting transport modes (e.g., pedestrian, cycling, public transport, etc.);
2. Increasing the efficiency of private motorized modes (e.g., car electrification);
3. Decreasing the overall amount of travel/transport activity.

Question 5

Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of

Answer 5

electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies.

Question 6

Delivering appropriate mobility services that provide access to

Answer 6

jobs, social opportunities, health, and education to everyone requires concerted action from the national, regional, and local levels.

Question 7

Consumer preferences are also markedly heterogeneous for individuals in varying geographies and cultures:

Answer 7

vehicle purchasers throughout the world have measurably different preferences for both financial and non-financial vehicle attributes

Question 8

preferences are critical to the ultimate success of alternative fuel vehicles

Answer 8

The first major insight deriving from the results described above is that concerted near-to-midterm actions on the part of governments, businesses and civil society to address non-financial aspects of consumers’ preferences are critical to the ultimate success of alternative fuel vehicles, in particular those powered by electricity and hydrogen. Financial incentives influencing fuel prices (e.g., carbon pricing) can certainly play a supporting role, but they do not appear to be sufficient for driving the AFV transition on their own

Question 9

Public transport not only contributes to lower energy consumption and emissions,

Answer 9

it also reduces congestion, which improves traffic flows and reduces travel times. As public transport is typically more than twice as energy-efficient per passenger kilometer as individual motorized transport, enhancing the share of public transport in urban passenger transport yields the potential to mitigate rising energy consumption and emissions

Question 10

walking and cycling infrastructure consumes

Answer 10

only a small amount of space compared to roads, yet this infrastructure is often neglected in transport planning. The provision and maintenance of infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists is crucial to make these modes more attractive. Separate crossing signals, cycle lanes, and buffers between road and lane can improve safety

Question 11

What kinds of vehicles are we talking about?

Getting the alphabet soup sorted!

Answer 11

AFV (alternative fuel vehicles)
ICE (internal combustion engines) running on
biofuels or biogas
EDV (electric-drive vehicles)
Electric-drive vehicles include:
BEV (battery electric vehicles)
PHEV (plug-in hybrid vehicle)
FCV (hydrogen fuel cell vehicles)

Question 12

Transport system is responsible for about 23% of global energy-related
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Will this change? Can this change?
Current trend=levels will not go down
What could bring about change?

Answer 12

-decrease demand for mobility
-increase efficiency
-increased modal shifts
àchange in fuel (intro to sust. energy)

Question 13

Transportation, energy and emissions (III) growing vs industrialized economies

Answer 13

à In growing economies
transport is the fastest-growing sector with regard to CO2 emissions
à In industrialized economies
transportation is the sector that shows least progress with respect to mitigation

Question 14

What changes are needed?

According to IEA data and IPPC scenarios:

Answer 14

• In industrialized countries light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel need to
change rapidly
• Shift towards more efficient vehicle technologies
• More efficient modes of transport

Question 15

To be in line with a 2 degree scenario:

Answer 15

• Need to achieve a reduction of 73%-80% of emissions
• Reduction of car travel of between 4% and 37%
• Combined with an average vehicle fuel efficiency (reduction in energy/km) of
between 45% and 56%

Question 16

Isn’t electrification helping the emissions of transportation?

Answer 16

Infrastructural issue; path dependency
The current structure of the transportation sector means
electrification is still quite limited (though we will look at
important examples of new pathways next session!)

Question 17

Energy used in transport:

Answer 17

94% of the energy used in transport comes from fossil fuels

This is responsible for emissions of 6.9 Gt CO2-equiv. of carbon dioxide (CO2) & other GHG (IEA, 2009)

Question 18

Near complete dependency of transport on energy from fossil fuels poses
major challenges:

Answer 18

• Air pollution, environmental degradation, energy security, economic
efficiency, and sustainable development.
• Relates to many other policy objectives related to road safety, land use, congestion, and access to jobs and opportunities for educations and health services

Question 19

Decarbonizing transport 4 areas

Answer 19

Requires coordination of 4 areas (with examples of what these could mean)
1) Planning
Mixed use areas, more compact, more walking/cycling friendly

2) Modal shift
Towards more efficient modes (bus vs private cars with on average 1.55 occupant in UK)

3) Technology
More efficient use of fuels, diversification or hybridization (like mini e-scooter), use of
‘smart’ tech

4) Fuel
Shifts towards:
• Electricity (not exactly a fuel, but a carrier of energy, recall Intro to Sust)
• Hydrogen (same as above)
• Compressed natural gas
• Biofuel

Question 20

Coordinated action across 4 areas (2)

most effective programs tend to include

Answer 20

• a combination of qualitative improvements to alternative modes
like walking, cycling, ridesharing, and public transit services
• incentives to discourage carbon-intensive modes by efficient road, parking, and
fuel pricing; marketing programs for mobility management and the reduction of
commuting trips; road space reallocation to favor resource-efficient modes)
• integrated transport planning and land use development, which creates more
compact, mixed, and better-connected communities with less need to travel.
RESULT: by combining these measures, you get an effective synergy and minimize
rebound effect!

Question 21

Biggest mitigation potential (from climate change perspective)

Answer 21

Ø Changes in vehicle technology and fuel switch options
Ø In combination with a multimodal approach that manages growth in travel demand
and use of diverse modes
BONUS: this will also provide benefits on other aspects of sustainability: air quality,
traffic congestion, safety, and overall societal mobility

Question 22

Conclusion

Transportation, energy and emissions: What will make a difference?

Answer 22

Transport emissions can be reduced in three ways:

1. Shift to lower-emitting transport modes: Walking, cycling, public transport, etc.
2. Increasing the efficiency of private motorized modes car electrification
3. Decreasing the overall amount of travel/transport activity

Question 23

conclusion –> This means finding ways to achieve low-carbon transport through a range of changes:

Answer 23

avoided journeys through compact urban design
• shifts to more efficient modes of transport
• uptake of improved vehicle and engine performance technologies
• low-carbon fuels
• investments in related infrastructure
• changes in the built environment.

Question 24

What is the context of such

changes?

Answer 24

Compared to light-duty vehicles, public transport modes are far more
efficient (less energy and CO2 per passenger-km).
OECD residents each traveled almost twice as much as non-OECD
residents in 2010
But there has been a reduction #km travelled in OECD since 10’s
àwe saw this at the level of the UK in our discussion of the UK policy
report

Question 25

What about the role of cities? (1)

Answer 25

Cities currently account for about: • 70% of energy consumption • 80% of energy-related GHG emissions • BUT only cover 2% of the Earth’s landmass. Cities can also be a hotspot for synergies and co-benefits when addressing global climate change and sustainable development objectives Co-benefits: improved air quality, health, energy security, and productivity

Question 26

What about the role of cities? (2)

Answer 26

Cities can play major role in reaching SDGs and Paris Agreement targets For example, “New Urban Agenda”, approved by countries at the Habitat III summit in Quito in 2016 “New Urban Agenda: highlights cities’ role as • powerhouses of the global economy • drivers of innovation • centers of social interaction

Question 27

How strongly can cities intervene?

Answer 27

Lah et al report on two projects in cities: Belo Horizonte, Brazil, and Kochi, India, where they compare interventions to a business-as-usual (BAU) reference case. This aims to highlight possible developments for the cities and propose measures in the context of an integrated mobility policy package. Specifically, they model business as usual (BAU), 2 degree scenario and 1.5 degree scenario (Note the importance of emissions here, as framing action)

Question 28

How strongly can cities intervene? FIndings:

Answer 28

Findings: • Vehicle efficiency improvements and technology shift require strong measures by national governments and modal shift require substantial investments in infrastructure and services • ‘Cobenefits’ can be way to make these policy changes attractive to a greater number and show concrete improvements on the way to emissions reductions

Question 29

How else can cities support sustainable urban mobility?

Answer 29

Ø There are a large number of possible interventions local authorities can initiate in their jurisdiction that can influence: • travel behavior • vehicle choice • vehicle use • Local authorities have a key role to play in shaping urban form and planning local transport infrastructure. • Cities can regulate, fund, and often even operate public transport services and shape the modal structure of its transport system (how easy it is to go from train to bus, etc)

Question 30

Integrated Urban Planning

Answer 30

Think back to the concept of obduracy and to the life-course of buildings • Land-use planning decisions of today shape traffic management of the future • Cities that have applied this successfully: Copenhagen and Freiburg • In these cities: • public transport planning integrated with wider urban planning • nonmotorized infrastructure is strong • urban mobility is more convenient, efficient, and provides better access to services, jobs, education, and social activities

Question 31

Urban Access Regulation | Urban Road Tolls/Congestion Charges

Answer 31

• urban road pricing scheme for peak hours (similar to shifting peaks in electricity demand) • effective option to improve traffic flows and reduce overall travel demand • congestion charging works by avoiding and shifting traffic to more sustainable transport modes

Question 32

Other areas

Answer 32

• Public transport (reliability—bus lanes; integration— park&ride; 2x efficient) • Shared mobility (cars; trend: e-scooter in times of covid?) • Parking management • Supporting walking and cycling

Question 33

Prioritizing Electrification

Answer 33

• electric mobility can play a significant role in the decarbonization of the land-transport sector • many e-mobility solutions are readily available • already cost-effective • deliver wider socioeconomic benefits: • Lah et al (ch 7) states: From a societal perspective, the electrification of public and shared vehicle fleets is the more cost-effective option, since these vehicles tend to drive longer distances and serve a substantially higher number of people. (see figure next slide)

Question 34

Growth of electric-drive vehicles

Answer 34

• 40-70 Million EDVs by 2025 (about 3-5% of stock) IEA Global Report EV outlook 2019 • 5 million EVs in 2018 (63% more than in 2017) • Where are these cars? • In China 45% • In Europe 24% • In US 22% BUT in terms of proportion of cars being EVs, Norway is the global leader, where over 45% of new cars bought are electric.

Question 35

How green is an EV?

Answer 35

• The evolution of well-to-wheel (WTW) greenhouse gas emissions from the EV fleet is determined by the combined evolution of the energy used by EVs and the carbon intensity of electricity generation – as the grid becomes less carbon intensive, so do EVs. • Despite the comparative advantage of EVs in terms of GHG emissions, it is clear that the benefits of transport electrification on climate change mitigation will be greater if EV deployment takes place in parallel with the decarbonization of power systems. • In other words, need to look at how sectors join up in a SYSTEM, not only at specific technologies or sectors!

Question 36

How to compare sustainability of these very different energy uses between vehicles?

Answer 36

carbon-dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour Abbreviated as g CO2-eq/kWh + 2 arrows

Question 37

How green is an EV? (2)

Answer 37

Of course, the carbon-dioxide equivalent depends on the electricity used The current global average carbon intensity is 518 gr of CO2-eq/kWh This is LESS less GHGs than a global average ICE vehicle using gasoline over their life cycle. So we could say that an EV is ‘greener’ than an ICE using gasoline. BUT recall that this outcome depends on the power mix!!! In countries where power generation is largely through low-carbon sources (hydro, nuclear), then the outcome is different than in countries where power generation is more carbon intensive (coal power plants). In such a context, a hybrid vehicle might score better on g CO2-eq/kWh and therefore be ‘greener’.

Question 38

Technological developments in EV are rapid and mean | that costs are rapidly decreasing.

Answer 38

Think of • Battery chemistry • Production of batteries • Production of vehicles • Design of batteries (for example, smaller batteries since most demand is for short journeys) • Differentiate between slow/fast charging needs

Question 39

Innovation and Evs (1)

Answer 39

Many other innovations • charging service points • interoperability of charging systems or of batteries • integration of EV in power grid Need for attention to sustainable sourcing and recycling of cobalt and lithium PLUS dynamics we have seen in past weeks: urbanization, mobility-as-service, datafication/smartness are also intersecting with EV growth.

Question 40

We think of EVs as electric cars…

Answer 40

``` But don’t forget • Two- and three-wheelers • Low speed electric vehicles or neighbourhood electric vehicles (20-40 km/h) ```

Question 41

Conclusion

Answer 41

Is intervention in transportation sector important for reducing emissions? • Yes, but difficult and most effective if thinking of ‘mobility’ rather than vehicles and roads Can cities make a difference in decarbonization of mobility? • At city level, many lines of action possible, most effective if integrated How green is electric mobility? • only effective if addressed in systemic terms, also considering energy system in combination with mobility

Question 42

How do consumers choose EVs?

Answer 42

``` Capital costs (price of car) Future operation and fuel costs (price of ‘running’ a car) Other attributes also matter (model, brand, comfort, acceleration, safety) For AFV: vehicle range and refueling station availability ```

Question 43

Consumer choice: variation!

Answer 43

* Variation in factors that matter, not only financial but also: * Availability of fueling stations * Availability of models * Concern about limited driving range * Novelty (techno-gadgets, status symbol) * Much more heterogeneity among consumers than expected * Urban/rural * Early/late adopters * Moderate/frequent drivers