Week 8 - Climate, conflict and migration Flashcards
(12 cards)
What do scientists say about the relationship of climate change and armed conflict?
- No evidence of a common, universal positive relationship (Gleditsch 2012, Bernauer et al. 2012, Buhaug 2015, Busby 2018, Coulibaly and Managi 2022);
- While not a primary cause of armed conflict outbreak, climate changes may still influence conflict dynamics, for example, by increasing rebel recruitment due to extreme weather events (IPCC 2022, Buhaug 2023);
- Lack of a general and robust link does not mean that climate variability/change never plays an important role;
- Whereas researchers have been studying this…
o Climate variability -> Armed conflict
–> Reality is quite complex.
–> Indirect association is more likely
How could extreme weather be related to conflict risk?
Warming, extreme weather leads to
a) Livelihood shocks (Income shock)
b) Food price shock
c) Climate-related migration
which can increase conflict risk.
Does income shock trigger conflict?
- Growing-season drought has no significant effect on civil conflict outbreak.
- Yet, it sustains conflict in the context of political marginalisation and agricultural dependence.
Does Food Price Shock Trigger Conflict?
- Most evident for social unrest; less clear effect on armed conflict.
- Food price shock is symptom of more fundamental economic problems.
- ‘Food riots’? International media see hunger when locals see corruption…
- What’s the role of weather anyway?
- Protests are not necessarily negative phenomena.
Does Climate Migration Trigger Conflict?
Case Syria (chronological order)
o Sustained drought
o Agricultural policies
o Urban migration
o Political uprising
But: Migration Pathway is Complex and Difficult to Study
- Migration is multi-causal; separating “climate” from “non-climate” factors is difficult or impossible (Suarez-Orozco 2020, Boas 2019).
- Scholars disagree on how to categorize migration types clearly.
o For example, estimates of displacement from the 2022 Pakistan floods vary widely:
-> UNHCR reported 6.4 million people displaced.
-> NDMA and World Bank estimated nearly 8 million.
- Significant data-related challenges limit robust research.
Explain the relation of Migration and the Syrian civil war
Intensifying Grievances: Migration exacerbated existing grievances, facilitating the onset of protests and subsequent escalation into civil war (Ide 2020, Ash and Obradovich 2019, Kelley 2015).
On the other hand:
- Climate migrants, often extremely marginalized and lacking social networks in their new urban environments, were unlikely to initiate protests (Fröhlich 2016).
- Migrants tended to participate in uprisings within their original governorates rather than in the areas to which they had moved, limiting their influence on urban protests (Fröhlich 2016).
- The scale of migration induced by drought was relatively small (Selby 2017).
Relation of migration and political exclusion
o Dependent on state responses and migration policies in the hosting areas.
o Weather shock-related internal migration increases the risk of rioting in states, which are not politically aligned with the central government
The Role of Local Institutions and Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
- Lack of shared institutions for conflict resolution can increase risk for violence.
- Conflict resolution institutions in communities and along traditional trekking routes can facilitate peaceful conflict resolution
What did Boas et al. say in Rethinking Climate Migration: A New Research Agenda
- Current narratives overstate the threat of mass “climate refugee” movements.
- Most climate-related movement is temporary, short-distance and internal.
- Research must shift from asking why people leave to also examining where they go and what happens after.
- Policy responses must move beyond border securitization and fear-driven agendas.
- The importance of immobility- some people cannot move due to lack of resources; others choose to stay despite the risks.
Explain the sampling bias regarding climate migration
- Focus on areas with convenient data access, at times neglecting regions where research is critically needed.
- Non-climatic factors like colonial history and political stability skew research focus.
- Overemphasis on conflict zones, with insufficient study of regions successfully managing similar stresses peacefully.
Explain disaster dipomacy
- Disasters can sometimes reduce conflict by weakening rebel groups and creating openings for peace-building (Tenant 2024; Lujala 2010).
- Disasters may also disrupt resource extraction or financial flows, undermining the operational strength of armed groups (Tominaga et al. 2021; Ide 2023).
- In some cases, the need for humanitarian aid and recovery fosters cooperation between previously opposing parties (Canavan et al. 2024).
- The 2013 typhoons in the Philippines as an example of how disaster response can shift conflict dynamics (Hänze 2024; Walch 2018).
Wrap up on climate change
- Climate change is slow-moving — the worst impacts are yet to come.
- Future risks are hard to predict due to uncertainty in adaptation and energy choices.
- Policy looks long-term; research often focuses on short-term weather events.
- Climate alone doesn’t cause conflict — it acts on existing vulnerabilities…
- Invest in diplomacy and address root causes like inequality and weak governance.
