11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (Proj. Risk MGMT)

Question 1

what is 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis?

Answer 1

numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty on the overall project objectives

Question 2

what is the key benefit of 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis?

Answer 2

1. quantifies overall project risk exposure

2. can provide additional quantitative risk information to support risk response planning

Question 3

when is 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis performed during a project?

Answer 3

throughout (when required for a project)

Question 4

11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis - inputs (4)

Answer 4

1. project management plan (4)
2. project documents (10)
3. EEFs
4. OPAs

Question 5

what project management plan inputs are relevant to 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (4)

Answer 5

a. risk management plan
b. scope baseline
c. schedule baseline
d. cost baseline

Question 6

what project documents are relevant to 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (10)

Answer 6

a. assumption log
b. basis of estimates
c. cost estimates
d. cost forecasts
e. duration estimates
f. milestone list
g. resource requirements
h. risk register
i. schedule forecasts

Question 7

what EEF’s are relevant inputs to 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (2)

Answer 7

1. industry studies of similar projects

2. published material, including commercial risk databases or checklists

Question 8

what OPAs are relevant inputs to 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (1)

Answer 8

1. information from similar completed projects

Question 9

11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis - tools and techniques (5)

Answer 9

1. expert judgement
2. data gathering (interviews)
3. interpersonal and team skills (facilitation)
4. representations of uncertainty
5. data analysis (4)

Question 10

what are representations of uncertainty?

Answer 10

how duration/cost/resource requirements that are uncertain are represented as a probability distribution (triangular, normal, lognormal, beta, uniform or discrete)

Question 11

what data analysis tools and techniques are relevant for 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (4)

Answer 11

a. simulations
b. sensitivity analysis
c. decision tree analysis
d. influence diagrams

Question 12

what is sensitivity analysis?

Answer 12

helps determine which individual project risks/uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes (ex. tornado diagram)

Question 13

what is decision tree analysis? (2)

Answer 13

1) supports the selection of the best of several courses of action
2) includes associated costs and related individual project risks
3) evaluated by calculating the expected monetary value of each branch

Question 14

what are influence diagrams?

Answer 14

1. graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty

Question 15

what would cause 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis to be considered for a project? (4)

Answer 15

1. large or complex project
2. strategically important projects
3. if it is contractual requirement
4. required by key stakeholder

Question 16

what updates to the risk report may happen in 11.4 perform quantitative risk analysis? (5)

Answer 16

1. assessment of overall project risk exposure
2. detailed probabilistic analysis of the project
3. prioritized list of individual project risks
4. trends in quantitative risk analysis results
5. recommended risk responses