Judgement

Question 1

What is judgement?

Answer 1

process of drawing conclusions from encountered evidence

Question 2

What is a frequency estimate?

Answer 2

many judgements begin with it, assess how often a given event has occured in the past

Question 3

What is attribute substitution?

Answer 3

strategy of relying on easily accessed info as a proxy for needed info

Question 4

What is the availibility heuristic?

Answer 4

using info that is more memorable (on the top of my head)

Question 5

What is the representative heuristic?

Answer 5

making judgements off of stereotypes (something/one resembles X so they must be X)

Question 6

Which heuristic do we use when we want to judge value? Why can it be wrong?

Answer 6

effort heuristic (usually things that reuqire more effort are more valuble but not always the case)

Question 7

Which heuristic do we use when we want to judge risk? Why can it be wrong?

Answer 7

affect heuristic (risky choices feel sketchy and good ones feel good, but other factros are also at play) (gut feeling)

Question 8

Why do people think airplane crashes are more common than they are?

Answer 8

people overestime infrequent/rare events because they get media coverage and stand out more

Question 9

Why do we use representative heuristic?

Answer 9

we assume categories are homogenous

Question 10

What is the gambler’s fallacy?

Answer 10

bad at guessing odds (if coin lands head 6 times poeple think its more likely to be tails the 7th time, but odds are still 50/50)

Question 11

What is covariation?

Answer 11

X and Y covary if the presence or magnitude of X can be predicted by the presence or magnitude of Y

Question 12

What is confirmation bias?

Answer 12

tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefs than to evidence that challenges them

Question 13

What is base rate information?

Answer 13

info about how frequently something usually occurs

Question 14

Why is base rate information important?

Answer 14

neglecting it can lead to inaccurate estimates of covaritation

Question 15

What is diagnostic information?

Answer 15

info that may indicate whetehr an individual belongs to a category

Question 16

When base rate and diagnostic info are given what do people do?

Answer 16

base rate neglect happens, they make decisions using diagnostic info

Question 17

Base rate neglect is partly a conseqeunce of what?

Answer 17

attribute substitution

Question 18

What is type 1 thinking?

Answer 18

fast and automatic thinking, uses heuristics

Question 19

What is type 2 thinking?

Answer 19

slower, effortful thinking, more likely to be right, uses more brain regions

Question 20

Why do people sometimes rely on heuristics but other times not?

Answer 20

usually depends on context, time prssure, distracted

Question 21

Type 1 thinking can be sophisticated and consider base rates if?

Answer 21

base rate are presented as frequencies not probabilities/proportions, role of random chance in emphasized, education

Question 22

What is the process of induction?

Answer 22

process where your forecast about new cases based on observed (old) ones

Question 23

What is the process of deduction?

Answer 23

process through which you start with givens and ask what follows from these premises

Question 24

What is an example of confirmation bias that is covered in lecture?

Answer 24

if people are given a set of numbers and asked what they think the pattern is, they will try to make the subsequent sets fit the pattern instead of reevalutaing

Question 25

What is belief perserverance?

Answer 25

tendency to continue endorsing a belief even when disconfirming evidence is undeniable

Question 26

What is categorical syllogism?

Answer 26

logical arguments that contain two premises and a conclusion

Question 27

What is belief bias?

Answer 27

if people happen to believe the conclusion tehy are more likely to think that is valid

if they think concl. is false they think arguemtn is invalid

Question 28

What did they first think decision making was based off of?

Answer 28

principle of utility maximalization, balance of cost/benefit

Question 29

What are some problems with the principle of utility maximalization?

Answer 29

Decisions are often guided by factors nothing to do with utility
maximization, need for justification, emotion

Question 30

What is the framing effect?

Answer 30

people decide between options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations

Question 31

The sure bet is chosen if the problem is negative/posititvely framed?

Answer 31

posititvely

Question 32

The risky choice is chosen if the problem is negative/positive framed?

Answer 32

negatively

Question 33

What is the endowment effect?

Answer 33

people are more likely to retain an object they own than acquire that same object when they do not own it

Question 34

Patients with what damage are unable to use somatic markers linked to risk?

Answer 34

damage to OFC (orbitofrontal cortex)

Question 35

What are somatic markers?

Answer 35

emotional processes can consciously or unconsciously impact decision-making by creating biomarkers called somatic markers

Question 36

What is affective forecasting?

Answer 36

your predictions about your own emotions

Question 37

How do people tend to estiamte their future emotions?

Answer 37

overestimate the extent and duration of their feelings