2010s: Main Points

Question 1

NATO (4:)

Answer 1

• Back to article 5
- From 2014 NATO returns to the article 5 territorial defense posture based on the deterrence concept

• Enhanced Forward Presence in the eastern flank (Warsaw, 2016): four multinational battalion strong battle groups as a ‘tripwire’ in the Baltic states and Poland
• NATO Enlargement:
• 2017: Montenegro accepted
• 2019: North Macedonia finalizes accession process

• Open door policy reports:

• Georgia is in the ‘pipeline’ but no decision on MAP
• Ukraine is not in the ‘pipeline’

Question 2

Arms Race (3:2)

Answer 2

• SORT ended in 2011, replaced by New START (2010), entered into force in 2011. It was >expected< to last until 2021.

• It follows the START I treaty, which expired in December 2009; the proposed START II treaty, which never entered into force; and the START III treaty, for which negotiations were never concluded.
• Russian officials agreed to a U.S. proposal to freeze nuclear warhead production for a year and to extend the treaty by a year.

• US then RU withdrew from INF in 2019

Question 3

India-Pakistan (1)

Answer 3

• MFN (most favoured nation) - Suspended in 2016 after Pulwama attack.
→ India shifted to hard-line position

Question 4

Middle East (2:9)

Answer 4

•  Arab Spring
December 2010: Tunisia
January 2011: Egypt and Yemen
February 2011: Libya
March 2011: Syria

• Destabilisation affected almost the entire MENA region, including: Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia
• However, further destabilisation of the wider region was arrested by:

- Political concessions and reforms (Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman)
financial injections (Saudi Arabia) or
intervention (Saudi Arabia in Bahrain)

• REASONS: socio-economic crisis (poverty, joblessness, basic food prices surge)
• Decades of non-replaceable authoritarian rulers fatigue and frustration of the growing middle class

- Structural problems:
Social, 
ideological: secular vs Islamic rule;
political: limited access political systems,
Sunni vs Shia and vice versa

• Important: it was not a clash of civilizations but, rater, clashes within a civilization.

• Libya (2011) and Syria (2011-2012) and turned both cases to the UNSC

• 2014: US lead coalition to combat ISIL in Iraq and Syria
• Russian intervention in Syria (2015)
  EU refugees crisis

Question 5

ASEAN (3)

Answer 5

• ASEAN Trade: economic interconnectedness (2018), the largest trade partner of ASEAN was intra-ASEAN first, then China, EU and US. This shows the way ASEAN gives priority to making the member-states stronger firsts, in a mutual trust and cooperation process.
• Current relations with China and US
• Maritime disputes in the South China Sea have been the biggest irritant

Question 6

Russia (4)

Answer 6

• Part of WTO
• NRC suspended 2014
• G8 suspended 2014
• Creation of Eurasian Economic Union EAEU (2015)