22 - Judgement Flashcards
What is a heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
When a person learns something themselves
What are the three original judgement heuristics, proposed by Kahneman & Tversky (1974)? (Judgement Cognitive)
- Anchoring and adjustment
- Availability
- Representativeness
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
People make suggestions of a probability and then alter the suggestion accordingly
What is the main example of the judgement heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
- A wheel of fortune rigged to land on 10 or 65
- P’s asked the proportion of African nations in the UN
- When the wheel landed on 10, answers averaged 25%
- When the wheel landed on 65, answers averaged 45%
What did Epley & Gilovich (2001) find in relation to anchoring and adjustment? (Judgement Cognitive)
One influence of anchoring and adjustment is shaking of the head leads to movement away from the anchor
What is the availability heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
A shortcut that relies on the immediate example frequencies, when evaluating a topic
What did Ross & Sicoly (1979) find in relation to the availability heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
P’s overestimated their contributions to household chores as there were plenty of examples ready
What can adjustment be seen as in regards to anchoring and adjustment? (Judgement Cognitive)
A conscious process (system 2), but it is also subject to unconscious influences (system 1)
What is the representative heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
We estimate the likelihood of an event by comparing it to existing prototypes that are relevant
What is an example of a representative heuristic? (Judgement Cognitive)
Bias in a jury to convict someone as guilty if they look like a criminal
What is regression to the mean? (Judgement Cognitive)
Praise for success on a task was followed by failure on the next task, and vice versa
What is hindsight bias? (Judgement Cognitive)
The inclination after an event has happened, to see the event as predictable
What is outcome bias? (Judgement Cognitive)
Events are judged by their actual outcomes, not by wether the decisions were good or bad when they were made
When you’re attached to a situation, it is an inside view. What does this lead to? (Judgement Cognitive)
- Planning fallacy (overestimating the ability to complete a task in the given time)
- This heightens optimism bias
