4. Managing Population Size

Question 1

What do the features of a population pyramid suggest?

Answer 1

• Narrow top suggests a lower life expectancy with a high death rate at younger ages
• Slight gender imbalance suggests that women have a longer life expectancy
• Wide base at bottom suggests high fertility rate and rapid population growth
• Slight indent in young people at 20-24 shows higer death rates than normal (war / famine / disease) or economic migration

More typical population pyramid of an LIC

Question 2

What do the features of a population gherkin / skyscraper suggest?

Answer 2

• Tall peak suggests higher life expectancy and a lower death rate
• Wider peak suggests more people live longer
• Thin base suggests low birth rate and a more consistent population.
• More even population distribution across ages.

Question 3

Why is the Demographic Transition Model useful?

Answer 3

• Easy to understand and can, to some extent, be applied to all countries.
• It provides a framework to compare demographic change between countries over time
• The time scales of each stage are flexible
• It allows countries to anticipate future changes to the population and plan ahead e.g. Stage 4 into Stage 5

Question 4

Why might some countries not follow the same pattern as the UK on the DTM over a similar period of time?

Answer 4

• In Sub-Saharan Africa, the death rate has risen rapidly due to AIDS
• The death rate in some countries has dropped rapidly due to the introduction of western medicines, especially immunisations against major diseases e.g. Typhoid
• For some countries in Stage 3, the widespread availability of contraceptives has reduced fertility rates (Thailand) or other social policies have resulted in a dramatic decline in fertility rates (China)
• The link between economic growth and population change has become more tenuous.

Question 5

Why might the DTM be criticised as a working model that is out of date?

Answer 5

When the model was first created, there were only 4 stages. Since stage 5 has been added, the model has not been updated and so could be seen as out of date.

Question 6

Why might the DTM be criticised as a Eurocentric model?

Answer 6

The model is designed to fit western European countries that have had industrial revolutions, with the expected trends based off the experiences and data of these countries. As such, it may not be accurate to use for countries that choose alternate paths.

Question 7

Why might the DTM be inaccurate due to the effects of diseases?

Answer 7

Tropical diseases such as malaria increase the mortality rate in countries with the disease. This causes the death rate to be higher in countries with the disease.

Furthermore, HIV outbreaks in Botswana and Tanzania may result in countries taking longer to get through Stage 2

Question 8

How might the DTM be outdated in comparison to the pace of change?

Answer 8

Rapid economic development condenses the timeframe of the model and makes the link between population change and development more tenuous.

Question 9

How might the DTM be limited by a lack of information on migration?

Answer 9

Immigration of young economic migrants to a country raises the birth rate of that country.

Conversely, retirement migration to a country increases the death rate and dependency ratio.

Question 10

What percentage of the population in Uganda is <15 years old in comparison to the UK?

Answer 10

Population percentage <15
Uganda: 48.2%
UK: 17%

Question 11

What is the fertility rate of Uganda in comparison to the UK?

Answer 11

Fertility Rate
Uganda: 5.36
UK: 1.63

Question 12

What is the birth rate of Uganda in comparison to the UK?

Answer 12

Birth Rate / 1000 / year
Uganda: 40.94
UK: 10.79

Question 13

What is the death rate of Uganda in comparison to the UK?

Answer 13

Death Rate / 1000 / year
Uganda: 5.02 deaths
UK: 9.07

Question 14

What is the total population of Uganda in comparison to the UK?

Answer 14

Total Population
Uganda: 46.2m
UK: 67.8m

Question 15

What is the median age of Uganda in comparison to the UK?

Answer 15

Median Age
Uganda: 15.7
UK: 40.6

Question 16

What percentage of the population of Uganda lives in urban areas in comparison to the UK?

Answer 16

Urban Population
Uganda: 26.2%
UK: 84.4%

Question 17

In which stage are we more likely to see a youthful population?

Answer 17

Stage 2

Question 18

What are the causes of a youthful population in Uganda?

Answer 18

• Fertility rates and birth rates continue to be high whereas death rates and infant mortality rates have decreased rapidly.
• A small urban population percentage increases birth rates as children are an economic asset in rural areas - labour for farms.
• The percentage of the population married by 18 is very high - couples are married for a large amount of their childrearing years - more children.

Question 19

What are the impacts of a youthful population in Uganda?

Answer 19

• Shortage of midwives and maternity hospitals for high fertility rate - 6000 women die in childbirth each year
• 40,000 people graduate from Ugandan universities each year but only ~8000 jobs available - many emigrate leading to a ‘Brain Drain’
• 1 million AIDS orphans in Uganda - AIDS and STIs can spread easily as only 30% of Ugandans currently use contraception.
• Pressure on school systems - 48% of population < 15 but only half of these children are in school.
• High unemployment - 20% in 2012 - which could increase further as children grow up.

Question 20

How are effects of a youthful population being managed in Uganda?

Answer 20

• Government encouraging use of contraception (advertising, education and provision of free condoms) - 70% of Ugandans do not use contraception
• ABC Policy mandates sex after marriage, faith to one partner and use of condoms - has reduced the spread of HIV from 15% to 5%. Recently risen to 7% - policy is not getting through to everyone.
• Clinics are built and doctors / nurses trained however many move to HICs where they are paid more.
• Attract outsourcing of ICT, business and communications services e.g. offshore call centres such as TechnoBrain in Kampbala

Question 21

How could Uganda decrease its fertility rate?

Answer 21

Increases in education are necessary to reduce fertility rate - improve aspirations for women - difficult with high unemployment.

Government has tried to attract TNCs to set up factories in Uganda providing much needed employment for young people.

However - TNCs are wary of corruption and political instability of some areas of Africa.

Question 22

How is Japan’s dependency ratio changing from 1950-2050?

Answer 22

Dependency ratio /100 (working people)
1950: 67.8
2050: 95.7

Question 23

What are Japan’s birth rate, death rate and fertility rate?

Answer 23

Birth rate: 8 / 1000
Death rate: 11 / 1000
Fertility rate: 1.34

Question 24

What are the causes of Japan’s ageing population?

Answer 24

• Low fertility rates (1.34) - few children to support ageing population
• Healthcare and good diet increase national life expectancy
• Increase in average age of marriage (30.7♂ 29♀) decreases fertility rates due to infertility - couples are together for fewer reproductive years
• Japanese work environment, lack of work-life balance and economic cost of childrearing means that many couples do not have children / have fewer.

Question 25

What are the negative impacts of Japan's ageing population?

Answer 25

- **Increasing demand for healthcare** (**12% GDP**) and social services to care for needs of elderly, especially long-term and degenerative diseases - **Ageing population places greater pressure on the national budget** - increased public spending and shrinking tax base - government struggles to pay state pensions - **Increase in taxes to provide services** - **Some retirees live in poverty** without savings - expected to live off state pension (low) - **Labour shortages** and changes in employment patterns may require immigrant workers to fill gap - **Internal migration** as people move to rural areas to retire - **Housing prices will increase** as retirees continue to live in large family homes

Question 26

What are the positive impacts of Japan's ageing population?

Answer 26

- The "Grey" spending power - no mortgage / dependant children means increase in size of pensioners as economic force. - Retired people often do unpaid voluntary work for charities or provide free childcare for their grandchildren. Some well qualified old people continue to work on. - (Increasing 'grey power' as retirees vote on national policies)

Question 27

How does increasing consumption tax by 10% help to reduce impacts of ageing population?

Answer 27

Increase of tax on goods and services will generate large amounts of revenue to spend on healthcare and other services. - National scale solution affecting entire population - May slow down the economy as a result

Question 28

How does increasing the retirement age help to reduce impacts of ageing population?

Answer 28

Raising the **mandatory** retirement age allows people to stay on and work for longer, reducing number of dependents - National scale solution affecting those reaching retirement age (older population) - May prevent employers removing unsatisfactory employees due to Japanese employment laws

Question 29

How do Bandai Birth Bonuses help to reduce the impacts of an ageing population?

Answer 29

A **1 million ¥** bonus awarded to each employee of Bandai which expands their family beyond 2 children. - Small scale - 1 company with **800** employees - Not very effective - fertility too low for 3+ children to be common - Publicity stunt more than policy

Question 30

How does the 'New Angel' plan help to reduce the impacts of an ageing population?

Answer 30

Counselling offered to couples and fathers encouraged to take an equal role in child rearing. Small payments of **26,000 ¥** / child / month given. - National scale - requires government funding and support - Small improvements to fertility rate - may not be enough for the fertility rate to increase dramatically

Question 31

What was the One Child Policy and when was it implemented?

Answer 31

The One Child Policy, implemented in 1980 following less successful "later, longer, fewer" policy, required all couples to have just one child. Aimed to slow population growth - prevented **300 million** potential births.

Question 32

Why was the One Child Policy introduced?

Answer 32

Fears of overpopulation from rapid population growth (China's population increased from **500m** in **1949** to **1bn** by **1980**) which could potentially create issues of food and housing shortages, poverty etc.

Question 33

What were the features of the One Child Policy?

Answer 33

- Women closely monitored by family planning officers (Granny Police) - Women needed permission to get married and have children - Financial deterrents from having multiple children - cost of healthcare / nursery / education had to be paid back if a parent had 2 children - Strong encouragement for abortion / sterilisation

Question 34

What were the successes of the One Child Policy?

Answer 34

- One of the lowest fertility rates in the world (**1.5**) well below the required 2.1 to maintain a consistent population across generations - Rate of population growth is now **0.7%** - Government claims **400 million births** prevented, though contested due to lowering fertility rates due to increasing economic development - Greater opportunities for fewer children estimated to have brought between **200- and 400m** people out of poverty.

Question 35

What are the failures of the One Child Policy?

Answer 35

- **Preference for boys** has resulted in large numbers of female babies being abandoned or killed - in **2000**, reported that **90%** of abortions in China were female. - **As a result, the Chinese gender balance is now distorted** - estimated that men outnumber women in China by **60 million** - **Ageing population will slow the economy** as dependency ratio grows and tax base declines - Experts warn that China will be the first country to **grow old before growing rich** due to OCP - over **1/4** of the population predicted to be **>65** by **2050** - **Emergence of single-child society** - 'Little Emperor / Empress Syndrome'

Question 36

What are the symptoms of underpopulation?

Answer 36

- Surplus resources which are not fully utilised / exploited - Uninhabited / unused areas of the country - Shortage of skills

Question 37

What would potential solutions for underpopulation be?

Answer 37

- Greater incentives for immigration - Pro natal policies - Raise retirement age and increase workforce size - Reduce contraception access

Question 38

What are the symptoms of overpopulation?

Answer 38

- Food security issues - Environmental degradation - Unemployment

Question 39

What would potential solutions for overpopulation be?

Answer 39

- Limit immigration (possibly encourage emigration) - Family planning advice and increased contraception access - Minimum age of marriage ________ EXTREME SOLUTIONS _________ - Enforced sterilisation / OCP - Increase size of country - colonisation / invasion.

Question 40

Why is it difficult to achieve an optimum population?

Answer 40

- Populations are dynamic (continuously changing) e.g. as a result of migration flows - For some countries, gathering data on populations is difficult e.g. LICs, slum populations... - The ability to provide for a population changes with technical innovation - How do we even measure an optimum population?